Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Wences is one of the worst snake bit-oil peddlers out there.  By talking about "1,000,000 $/BTC" as if it were an almost sure thing, he has definitely left the "salesman" land and crossed into "scam" territory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tY1N26TZFAI

That's not true, he said there is a change (20%) that bitcoin will collapse

Many will understand that as "an 80% change of it getting to 1,000,000 $/BTC".  And he knows that.

There is simply no rational way to pick probabilities of future prices.  Is it possible that BTC will reach that price? Sure. Is it possible that Litecoin will do that instead? Sure, that is possible too.  Is ist possible that AAPL or WMT shares will do it? Possible, yes, sure.  Even the Venezuelan bolivar and the Somalian shilling could be worth that much one day. So?

[yolalanda]

Wences is one of the worst snake bit-oil peddlers out there.

He might be selling snake oil, but you're the manufacturer of snake oil.

I like you. I'll save you for dessert

http://youthvoices.net/sites/default/files/image/26021/nov/image.jpg

[adamstgBit]

Wences is one of the worst snake bit-oil peddlers out there.  By talking about "1,000,000 $/BTC" as if it were an almost sure thing, he has definitely left the "salesman" land and crossed into "scam" territory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tY1N26TZFAI

That's not true, he said there is a change (20%) that bitcoin will collapse

Many will understand that as "an 80% change of it getting to 1,000,000 $/BTC".  And he knows that.

There is simply no rational way to pick probabilities of future prices.  Is it possible that BTC will reach that price? Sure. Is it possible that Litecoin will do that instead? Sure, that is possible too.  Is ist possible that AAPL or WMT shares will do it? Possible, yes, sure.  Even the Venezuelan bolivar and the Somalian shilling could be worth that much one day. So?

no no no AAPL or WMT do not have the same potential as bitcoin.

[inca]

Go ahead, party... You think you've already won, but you haven't



Get back is gonna be sweet...

Pathetic. Hopefully no one listened to you in the last year.

Thankfully the price continues to march higher.

Any wagers on the eventual top? Thoughts on the impact of the USMS auction tomorrow?

[peonminer]

The corrections are growing stronger, faster, more agile.

[Mirsad]

Glad I sold 70% of my newly purchased (215$) bitcoins. Profit lock-in is so great.
Let's wait for the next swing.

Time to acquire more BTC and get even more dirty fiat profits. Staying full in BTC is moronic.

sell high  buy higher

good plan

I always thought you were not one of those permabulls.
With Bitcoin there are always ups and downs. Buy & Hold sucks long term. Bad trading as well (I agree).
Spreading your buy-ins wisely will reduce the risk of buy high and sell low.

[criptix]

Go ahead, party... You think you've already won, but you haven't



Get back is gonna be sweet...

Pathetic. Hopefully no one listened to you in the last year.

Thankfully the price continues to march higher.

Any wagers on the eventual top? Thoughts on the impact of the USMS auction tomorrow?

There will be/has to be a correction soon.
Sooner is better then later else i think he might get the last laugh.

[rebuilder]

OK, this wasn't exactly a huge success... The quality is atrocious from all the transforms and video compression, andy Richy_T could do this much better from the raw data with whatever he's making Chartbuddy's snapshots with anyway. Nevertheless, a run down the canyons on nov. 20, 2013 (16 hours of it only!):

http://vid.me/rGpC

[Richy_T]

If you could buy enough coins @ $250 to dump at $500, then you could not only double your money in one day, but you could trigger a long squeeze of all you yahoos leveraged up 20 to 1 and then double your coin take.

And if you could buy them at $25...

Problem is, there are other people who would want to do the same thing so you have to bid higher than them. Which means the only useful bid is one slightly below the actual price, just enough to make a profit.

And then anyone who wants actual coins will know this so they will bid higher than you. However, there's not much point bidding much higher than market unless you want a lot of coins without slippage.

So in all likelihood, coins will go for close to market price to someone looking to accumulate.

[zimmah]

440-470 at its current rate .... any correction will quickly get eaten up and likely recover in 30min to 1 hour . This volatility is very bad ... it reflects that bitcoin has reversed course and no longer becoming more stable year after year but still very immature and volatile ... hopefully this will change in 1-5 years.

That's news? It wasn't stability it was despair and boredom.

agree, if bitcoin as an experiment is successful, it's price must shoot up many times.

Lmao at people who want Bitcoin to be stable at $200s

How is something with a market cap of 3 billion or so going to be stable in a quadrillion dollar economy?

Some people like zuckerburg and other rich guys don't even have to spent 1% of their networth to buy Bitcoin in its entirety at those prices.

Get real man, Bitcoin can't be stable anywhere below $100,000 and even that is too low.

Most likely it will be somewhere between 1 and 5 million per coin before it resembles anything that looks like stability.

[JorgeStolfi]

coinbase has 2.7 million KYC verified clients and 4.2 million accounts and they fall outside the jurisdiction of the largest bitcoin userbase. A conservative estimate would be 4-5 million minimum.

https://www.coinbase.com/about

Those are *registered* not *active* users.  Coinbase (and others like them) are always ambiguous when they quote those numbers.  A user may register just out of curiosity, perhaps make one or two small transactions and then give up on bitcoin.  

If Coinbase's active users were really growing, they would not need to run referral campaigns that paid $25 ($75 at some point) for referral of a new user who made a $100 payment through them (which would have generated $2 of revenue).

Moreover, that count must include (as you say) people who use only "off-chain bitcoin" -- deposit dollars at Coinbase, buy some bitcoin, only to spend them at a Coinbase-affiliated merchant who gets dollars from Coinbase.  Sorry, but those are not at all "bitcoin users".  Bitcoin was about replacing dollars and getting rid of trusted intermediaries, remeber? If youdon't issue transactions for the blockchain, you are not using bitcoin.

Bitcoin is to "Coinbase bitcoin" like steak is to steak-flavored corn chips.

[yolalanda]

Go ahead, party... You think you've already won, but you haven't

http://i160.photobucket.com/albums/t166/Sharkfreak06/ahp-711-2.jpg

Get back is gonna be sweet...

Pathetic. Hopefully no one listened to you in the last year.

Thankfully the price continues to march higher.

Any wagers on the eventual top? Thoughts on the impact of the USMS auction tomorrow?

What's it like to not give a flying f8ck about the millions who were turned to smoke at Auschwitz, just to keep you farting through silk (You Monster!)?
You don't belong in this world!
http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/defeat/catastrophe-stalingrad-german-prisoner.jpg

[GreekGeek]

new poll maybe...?

[conspirosphere.tk]

When did that happen?

So you can lend on OKcoin? Time to have a second look.

[hdbuck]

alien spotted.






murica eh.

[Richy_T]

There is simply no rational way to pick probabilities of future prices.  Is it possible that BTC will reach that price? Sure. Is it possible that Litecoin will do that instead? Sure, that is possible too.  Is ist possible that AAPL or WMT shares will do it? Possible, yes, sure.  Even the Venezuelan bolivar and the Somalian shilling could be worth that much one day. So?

Yeah, I hate when people assign probabilities to things like that. It's a total misuse. It's a factor of current conditions and it will either succeed or it won't. Any probability input falls into chaos theory and butterfly effect. "I don't know what will happen" is not a synonym for "this is subject to random chance" and you can't pull numbers out of your ass and assign them as possibilities. Especially for events which are not repeatable.

I'm sure this is probably* some kind of named fallacy thinking about it.

*(Using probably colloquially with no assigned percentage)

[BlackSpidy]

Wow! Whenever I think we're going to face some significant resistance, china just blows it up. I can't get any new bitcoin, as I'm accumulating fiat for when we're done with... whatever this is (I hope I have the opportunity to buy below $400 by January). I just finished setting up my beartraps for today, let's see how many of them click. Good luck, everyone.

[JorgeStolfi]

no no no AAPL or WMT do not have the same potential as bitcoin.

AAPL is valued because Apple makes products that people want, so each share pays out dividends (or becomes a share of a bigger capital).  AAPL is unlikely to go to 1,000,000 $/share bcause it is unlikely that Apple will make a product THAT good.  One can speculate with AAPL shares, and a speculative bubble may well push the price a lot higher that their fundamental price -- but only for a while, eventually it gets corrected back.

Bitcoin (sorry for repeating) has does not make any products and does pay dividends.  It can be used as a currency, but so could be Litecoin or any of an infinite supply of altcoins; and the "fundamental" price supported by that use shoudl be down in the single digits.  So its current price is entirely speculative.

I fail to see how a financial instrument that has less productive potential than AAPL can have more chance of getting getting "to the moon" and staying there...

[adamstgBit]

Glad I sold 70% of my newly purchased (215$) bitcoins. Profit lock-in is so great.
Let's wait for the next swing.

Time to acquire more BTC and get even more dirty fiat profits. Staying full in BTC is moronic.

sell high  buy higher

good plan

I always thought you were not one of those permabulls.
With Bitcoin there are always ups and downs. Buy & Hold sucks long term. Bad trading as well (I agree).
Spreading your buy-ins wisely will reduce the risk of buy high and sell low.

i'm a permabull at least when chatting on these forum
HODLING a lot of BTC never to sell is probably the safest strategy
I play the sell high buy higher game, yesterday i logged in and sold some bitcoin, seems like fairly easy profit, but i don't recommend it to everyone, i'm going to have to avg up a little a sell more then i feel comfortable with today, and hope that in the next few weeks we get below my avg selling price. I consider myself lucky that my extreme bullishness stopped me from selling a few days ago. and I'll consider myself lucky if i manage to grab BTC profits at some point.

but look at trami he might be in pretty deep shit right about now, he might of made a killing on the way down, and then one last short destroys all his profits.

buy & hold = safe and easy
buy & sell = scary and fun
short & long = could kill you.

[Sitarow]