Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitebits]

omg sell now price going to $1    

You are not in the Monero speculation thread .

Some speculation: Now that Adam and most other high volume posters left (by getting banned or voluntarily), this topic's (and subsequently website) traffic has dropped drastically. This could be an unintended irreversible trend towards other places. What does this cost the owner of this website in loss of ad revenue, and will he stick to his guns after realizing what has actually happened?

Never a dull day in Bitcoinland, that's for sure.

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[JayJuanGee]

]



I think he's either in lala land if he believes that we are easily going down to $370 or lower or on the other hand maybe he didn't buy back in and is engaging in wishful thinking.

Still in lala land, glad I took my short position when I did, even if all three reasons I posted weren't valid in your mind. Still heading down I see, maybe not to $370 yet. But we'll see.

As far as needing to buy back at lower price, my cost average currently is $212 so getting in at any price above that would just be ridiculous. 

I'm certainly not in a contest with you concerning whether or not you are correct in your predictions, and actually there are a lot of ways to profit in bitcoin or any other investment, and if you believe that you have to get in below $212 in order to profit, you are actually in lala land.   


For example, you can buy at $1,000 tomorrow, and if prices go up to $1100 and you cash out those coins, you have just profited 10% on that purchase, and you also may bring down your average cost per BTC, if you fold those profits into your BTC investment portfolio funds (rather than completely removing them from the calculation).

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, I am counting on a failed test to break 450$, and then a nice crash.

Your posts are dog shit because you're just a flat out propagandist liar.  This is the only one where you even speak a glimmer of truth.  That you want the price to crash so you can buy.  You don't actually think the price is going to crash, you just spam non-stop "omg the price is going to crash to $1 at any second" praying that it does.

People who do nothing but lie 24 hours a day are called sociopaths and psychopaths.  The fact that you think this is acceptable behavior means you are a trash human and should probably do some self introspection to fix yourself.  Whether someone is my friend or enemy, I have no need to lie to either.

Except that you are the liar. In one sentence you managed to lie 3 times: "account sold" - that never happened; "Zionist banker shill" - I am not a zionist nor a banker; and the third with "crashing to $1 tomorrow".
I am not going to extrapolate this to 24 hours and call you names, other can draw their own conclusions.

I do speak my book, as do most of posters here. And so far the price has failed to break 450$, so right now the bearish scenario is more probable, and I am counting on it.
The MACD is negative in 1h, 2h, 6h, 12h and 1d time frames, 6h and 12h PSAR have flipped to bearish yesterday, so it does look promising for the bears.
If there will be a crash, I expect to test 300$ support, that's something I have been waiting for a long time. My bids (to close my short) are now in the 300$ - 320$ area.

Once it hits 300$, will you become bullish or are you long term bearish?

If it hits $300, we're likely all fucked... and accordingly, we would probably get another 2 years of flat BTC performance if such a scenario were to play out, no?

Maybe the halving which really matters is the one in 4 years.

Realistically, we cannot deny that there is a lot going on  in bitcionlandia during the remainder of this calendar year (2016).  Lots of additional things are likely to happen between now and 2020, so I don't know.  Surely, bitcoin could suffer another sub $300 period, but the odds of that are seeming quite remote in the current state of bitcoin developments.

In any event, we should prepare for price movements in either direction, and be prepared to weather adverse conditions in the event that they continue to be presented to the space.

I personally do think that the odds are greater than 75% that we are going to at least see fairly sustained $700 prices within less than the next 4 years and at least greater than 50% chances that at least one more ATH in the $3k to $5k territory will be reached in less than 4 years.... but still lot's of unknowns, and we can only approximate and when conditions change we have to reconsider our views regarding probabilities.  If we had not experienced a large amount of 2015 in the sub $300 price territory, bullish BTC scenarios would be a lot more prevalent and prices would probably be at least 25% higher than they are now.

[PoolMinor]

]



I think he's either in lala land if he believes that we are easily going down to $370 or lower or on the other hand maybe he didn't buy back in and is engaging in wishful thinking.

Still in lala land, glad I took my short position when I did, even if all three reasons I posted weren't valid in your mind. Still heading down I see, maybe not to $370 yet. But we'll see.

As far as needing to buy back at lower price, my cost average currently is $212 so getting in at any price above that would just be ridiculous. 

I'm certainly not in a contest with you concerning whether or not you are correct in your predictions, and actually there are a lot of ways to profit in bitcoin or any other investment, and if you believe that you have to get in below $212 in order to profit, you are actually in lala land.   


For example, you can buy at $1,000 tomorrow, and if prices go up to $1100 and you cash out those coins, you have just profited 10% on that purchase, and you also may bring down your average cost per BTC, if you fold those profits into your BTC investment portfolio funds (rather than completely removing them from the calculation).

So getting in at $400 when I have a portfolio of 50+ at cost average of $212 makes sense to you? If I bought 5 BTC at current price it will raise my CA by $18. With current swings in price being +/- 6% this doesn't equate to short term gains, especially if there is a 1% fee to buy/sell. But shorting at $420 and buying back in at $370 does make sense to me, since this will in fact lower my cost average.
 
But there are a lot of "If" statements in your arguments per usual.

[JayJuanGee]

]



I think he's either in lala land if he believes that we are easily going down to $370 or lower or on the other hand maybe he didn't buy back in and is engaging in wishful thinking.

Still in lala land, glad I took my short position when I did, even if all three reasons I posted weren't valid in your mind. Still heading down I see, maybe not to $370 yet. But we'll see.

As far as needing to buy back at lower price, my cost average currently is $212 so getting in at any price above that would just be ridiculous. 

I'm certainly not in a contest with you concerning whether or not you are correct in your predictions, and actually there are a lot of ways to profit in bitcoin or any other investment, and if you believe that you have to get in below $212 in order to profit, you are actually in lala land.   


For example, you can buy at $1,000 tomorrow, and if prices go up to $1100 and you cash out those coins, you have just profited 10% on that purchase, and you also may bring down your average cost per BTC, if you fold those profits into your BTC investment portfolio funds (rather than completely removing them from the calculation).

So getting in at $400 when I have a portfolio of 50+ at cost average of $212 makes sense to you? If I bought 5 BTC at current price it will raise my CA by $18. With current swings in price being +/- 6% this doesn't equate to short term gains, especially if there is a 1% fee to buy/sell. But shorting at $420 and buying back in at $370 does make sense to me, since this will in fact lower my cost average.
 
But there are a lot of "If" statements in your arguments per usual.

There are a lot of "if" statements in my assertions because there are a lot of individual tailoring that needs to take place with any investment, and certainly, you should do what makes sense to you.  What makes sense to you may not make sense to me and my circumstances.

Why the fuck would I be suggesting some kind of one size fits all scenario?  Accordingly, there seems to be no need to compete with me regarding whether your approach to BTC is better or worse than mine, and maybe you are still in a bit of a defensive mode because I characterize your prediction of low or downward BTC prices as a bit fanciful and wishful thinking rather than being based on objective and non-emotional considerations.

Yeah, go ahead and continue to attempt to assert that you are right and I am wrong, and that argument gets you nowhere with me, because I am not you and I am not trying to give you financial advice.

No matter what is your average cost per BTC, any kind of in-depth analysis regarding your position or what to do should include other factors, besides merely what is your average cost per BTC and whether buying causes that cost per BTC to be raised or lowered.  Like I already suggested, if it seems fairly likely that BTC prices are going to go up, then it makes sense to buy, even though in the short-term such purchase causes your average price per BTC to go up even higher, yet once you sell (hopefully at a profit), then your overall average price per BTC goes down because you include both the buy and the sell into the total calculation of the cost per BTC.

Of course, with any trading there is some risk because if prices don't go up, as you may have anticipated, then you may have caused your average price per BTC to go up for a longer period than you had originally anticipated.   

Yet, let me be clear to recognize that you seem to be anticipating the odds of downward BTC price movement to be greater than what I am anticipating. You can anticipate that if you want, and you can stagger your bets according to such anticipated downward price direction. I don't fucking care because I have set my portfolio to be prepared for price movements in either direction - even though I would prefer BTC prices to go up, I have a buy and sell strategy that I am continuously reallocating my BTC portfolio and prepared for downward price movement too, if that is what happens. 

Some BTC investors bet a lot on one way or another and then they become emotional about it, and I just don't play like that. 

Betting balls to the wall with BTC is just not good for my overall approach to BTC and my overall investments in a variety of other areas. 

My whole life investment plan has spread out my investments, so i continue to consider my BTC portion of my investment as serving a hedge against a variety of my dollar based investments.  There's a variety of ways to divide up investments, and some portions of investments are more liquid than other, and sometimes investments can become more liquid and allow for strategic choices.

Now, for you personally, if you believe that you have invested a lot in BTC, then it may be good to take some profits; however, taking profits now may not make sense if the price is going up from here... or if BTC prices are more likely to go up rather than down.  You have to make calculations for yourself and your own scenario.

[DaRude]

omg sell now price going to $1    

You are not in the Monero speculation thread .

Some speculation: Now that Adam and most other high volume posters left (by getting banned or voluntarily), this topic's (and subsequently website) traffic has dropped drastically. This could be an unintended irreversible trend towards other places. What does this cost the owner of this website in loss of ad revenue, and will he stick to his guns after realizing what has actually happened?

Never a dull day in Bitcoinland, that's for sure.

Define sticking to his guns? Doubt revenue would effect Theymos much

[abercrombie]

are we rich yet?? 

[bargainbin]

Isn't theymos in possession of 40,000 bitcoin for "forum maintenance and emergencies"? I highly doubt that the cost of running this forum will ever add up to (what at current price is) 16 million dollars...

Lol no; according to Thermos, the money's gone

The forum money I held has largely been spent now, mostly in the forum software project. Slickage was paid $100,000 per month in all of 2014 and until May in 2015. Since June 2015, they've been paid $50,000 per month. The exchange rate varied substantially throughout this period, but the end result is that most of the BTC was spent.

The rate ($85,417/month average as of the end of 2015) might seem high to people unfamiliar with professional software development, but it's normal. The project is quite a bit over-due and over-budget (the original estimate was 1 year and $1.2 million), but I've been constantly monitoring Slickage, and they've definitely been making solid, continual progress, so it seemed correct to continue to project. The vast majority of total forum revenue was from ads, not donations, but to the extent that donations were used: this software was in fact the main stated goal of donations.

As I've said before: I have absolutely no personal relationship to Slickage, and I receive no "kickbacks" whatsoever. I've never even met them in person. I first learned of Slickage from Warren Togami, who had previously done a lot of work for the forum and was himself recommended by gmaxwell and others. (I've also never met Warren in person.)

The current status of the software is that it's ~85% done. The core of it is entirely functional and often much better/faster than SMF, though there are still several missing features. There will be a public beta before the end of the month, I think, at which time I'll post more about what's left to be done. Also see http://epochtalk.org/ for more info.

[BlackSpidy]

Isn't theymos in possession of 40,000 bitcoin for "forum maintenance and emergencies"? I highly doubt that the cost of running this forum will ever add up to (what at current price is) 16 million dollars...

Lol no; according to Thermos, the money's gone

The forum money I held has largely been spent now, mostly in the forum software project. Slickage was paid $100,000 per month in all of 2014 and until May in 2015. Since June 2015, they've been paid $50,000 per month. The exchange rate varied substantially throughout this period, but the end result is that most of the BTC was spent.

The rate ($85,417/month average as of the end of 2015) might seem high to people unfamiliar with professional software development, but it's normal. The project is quite a bit over-due and over-budget (the original estimate was 1 year and $1.2 million), but I've been constantly monitoring Slickage, and they've definitely been making solid, continual progress, so it seemed correct to continue to project. The vast majority of total forum revenue was from ads, not donations, but to the extent that donations were used: this software was in fact the main stated goal of donations.

As I've said before: I have absolutely no personal relationship to Slickage, and I receive no "kickbacks" whatsoever. I've never even met them in person. I first learned of Slickage from Warren Togami, who had previously done a lot of work for the forum and was himself recommended by gmaxwell and others. (I've also never met Warren in person.)

The current status of the software is that it's ~85% done. The core of it is entirely functional and often much better/faster than SMF, though there are still several missing features. There will be a public beta before the end of the month, I think, at which time I'll post more about what's left to be done. Also see http://epochtalk.org/ for more info.

Holy shit, that whole thread reads like a public support section for a scam. "Yeah, we totally paid for [insert scam object here]. We didn't pocket the money, it's not our fault [insert unverifiable excuse here]. I have a [prototype/sample] right here with me. What's that? No, sorry. I can't share any proof of it! The sample you have is shit? Stop trolling!" Disgusting.

Fuck, am I glad that nobody's trusting Theymos with anything more substantial than one or two bitcoin forums, eh?

[gentlemand]

Well if I were him I would've undergone some bowel loosening when the price went mental. It's something of a poisoned chalice. He's damned in every direction.

[DaRude]

Don't see why everyone cares so much about Theymose? So they now there's a competing forum and reddit. Good decentralize... just stop spamming them

[inca]

Is this thread still going?

[hdbuck]

Is this thread still going?

depends if bitcoin is dead

[European Central Bank]

The wind has left this thread's sails. The action is spreading far and wide. Or going into hibernation.

[Searing]

The wind has left this thread's sails. The action is spreading far and wide. Or going into hibernation.

Damn it!

I miss 'Chart Buddy'

[deadpoolx]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

[kurious]

The wind has left this thread's sails. The action is spreading far and wide. Or going into hibernation.

Damn it!

I miss 'Chart Buddy'

It followed Adam to a new thread elsewhere. It's still published, just not here.  Some people don't like censorship on principle. Richy is one of those people.

[notme]

The wind has left this thread's sails. The action is spreading far and wide. Or going into hibernation.

Damn it!

I miss 'Chart Buddy'

It followed Adam to a new thread elsewhere. It's still published, just not here.  Some people don't like censorship on principle. Richy is one of those people.

Elsewhere: https://bitco.in/forum/threads/wall-observer.27/

[European Central Bank]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

[abercrombie]

Weekend bear trap formation nearly complete...