Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/block-size-halving-bitcoin-network/

[abercrombie]

"If bitcoin is allowed to scale it will take 5% of the gambling market within 3 years leading to a price of $2000"

http://bitcoin-daytrading.com/bitcoin-allowed-scale-will-take-5-gambling-market-within-3-years-leading-price-2000/

[Tzupy]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/rpaz5X3V-China-breaks-triangle-US-does-not/

[JayJuanGee]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/rpaz5X3V-China-breaks-triangle-US-does-not/

Give me a sign!!!!!

OH?  That's the sign?

Should I sell now in order to be ahead of the game?


Even with that charting of a breaking down in China, I am only slightly bearish for the next 3% break out...  maybe 52.75% betting on down... 

The mid $420s resistance has been proving a bit more formidable than I had expected, and possibly could be a few more weeks to get passed that point.

I do understand that when we are suffering from overall relative low volume, that leaves quite a bit of control to manipulators.. and it seems that bears tend to push their agenda a bit more in the low volume scenarios... and recently no one seems to getting too excited about possibilities of getting left behind.

[billyjoeallen]

This last week has seen a lower high and a lower low than the previous week.  I think the smart money is looking to unload at ~$420 on Wednesday unless there is some change in the fundamentals that justifies hodling.

We still have limited room to increase transactions, governance issues and a mining concentration security problem.  I don't expect a substantial pump until and unless there is a successful SegWit roll-out.

There is a strong correlation between full blocks and a dropping price.  This makes us vulnerable to price manipulation to the downside. 

[inca]

The wind has left this thread's sails. The action is spreading far and wide. Or going into hibernation.

This site is dying. Censorship tends to do that.

[DaRude]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

[JayJuanGee]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

Who is they?

 You are talking about the overall BTC market price? 

BTC's Market price is determined by a large number of diverse people and entities with diverse agendas, and likely a lot of them consider what others are doing in order to decide their own behaviors (whether buying, selling or holding), and at the same time, some individuals/entities follow formulas based on their own perspectives and risk tolerances in order to front-run what they believe others are likely to do. 

I will concede that some "they s" are more powerful and influential than other "they s" in moving BTC's market prices, but even so, those they s likely do not determine with any kind of precision BTC's price movements.

[pleaseexplainagain]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.

So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.

However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.

So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take  1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.

So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.

[billyjoeallen]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

Based on your sig, If Bitcoin is not allowed to grow, won't price decline? I mean it seems impossible to have price appreciation without growth. There is no way to stop growth that won't also stop appreciation.

[DaRude]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

Who is they?

 You are talking about the overall BTC market price? 

BTC's Market price is determined by a large number of diverse people and entities with diverse agendas, and likely a lot of them consider what others are doing in order to decide their own behaviors (whether buying, selling or holding), and at the same time, some individuals/entities follow formulas based on their own perspectives and risk tolerances in order to front-run what they believe others are likely to do. 

I will concede that some "they s" are more powerful and influential than other "they s" in moving BTC's market prices, but even so, those they s likely do not determine with any kind of precision BTC's price movements.

They = market makers. Whoever that might be.

[DaRude]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.

So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.

However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.

So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take  1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.

So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.

Right now someone is buying up* BTC3600 every single day. Come july only BTC1800 in new coins will be available for sale. With so much unknown your 3% math makes me laugh.

*Someone doesn't mean one entity. Even if miners decide to carry BTC on their balance sheets then they're doing the buying themselves.

[DaRude]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

Based on your sig, If Bitcoin is not allowed to grow, won't price decline? I mean it seems impossible to have price appreciation without growth. There is no way to stop growth that won't also stop appreciation.

"And it leads to an obvious but crazy conclusion: if decentralisation is what makes Bitcoin good, and growth threatens decentralisation, then Bitcoin should not be allowed to grow." -Mike Hearn
Yes, yes, and again yes. Until better solution is found, growth should not be achieved simply at the cost of centralization!

Quote is from Hearn's rage quit. By growth he's talking about giving free access to something that is limited in supply by design. Think it's obvious that it won't work. Make a block 80MB and if it's free (or almost free) to fill up someone will. Utilization can continue to grow even if it costs few cents extra for a space in a block.

[pleaseexplainagain]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.

So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.

However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.

So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take  1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.

So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.

Right now someone is buying up* BTC3600 every single day. Come july only BTC1800 in new coins will be available for sale. With so much unknown your 3% math makes me laugh.

*Someone doesn't mean one entity. Even if miners decide to carry BTC on their balance sheets then they're doing the buying themselves.

when I buy a bitcoin post halving I am not competing with others to buy the 1800 just minted. I am competing with others in a 15 million bitcoin market. The lessening of supply by 1800 is peanuts and will not move the price.

yes if miners keep their coins they are in effect buying them but at what price? Or rather what price do they wish to sell to pay for electricity etc. I understand alot of minors sell off market to big buyers at much lower prices than the "going' retail bitcoin price.

you are right my 3% is just a guess. But there is no way of being accurate - all i know is the price rise as a result of halving is very very unlikely.
what is your guess for the price in mid july? Post it and we will see who is more accurate then.

[billyjoeallen]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

Based on your sig, If Bitcoin is not allowed to grow, won't price decline? I mean it seems impossible to have price appreciation without growth. There is no way to stop growth that won't also stop appreciation.

"And it leads to an obvious but crazy conclusion: if decentralisation is what makes Bitcoin good, and growth threatens decentralisation, then Bitcoin should not be allowed to grow." -Mike Hearn
Yes, yes, and again yes. Until better solution is found, growth should not be achieved simply at the cost of centralization!

Quote is from Hearn's rage quit. By growth he's talking about giving free access to something that is limited in supply by design. Think it's obvious that it won't work. Make a block 80MB and if it's free (or almost free) to fill up someone will. Utilization can continue to grow even if it costs few cents extra for a space in a block.

I know damn well where it's from, but you didn't answer my question.  Utilization can only grow until it hits the limit, at which point it can't continue to grow.  In the process, of course I understand that low value transactions will be replaced by relatively higher value transactions that merit higher fees, but there is still a limit and because of the correlation between price and utilization, there is a limit on price. We can debate what that limit is, but it's there.  There is a price beyond which a network congestion failure is an inevitable certainty if capacity is constant.  This should be so obvious, it bewilders me that I even have to say it. What is the cognitive disconnect of smallblockers who think capacity limits aren't also price limits? 

Look, if price keeps going up, it's going to attract new users, traders, speculators etc. This is obvious. There is no way to stop it. The growth will continue to come until something prevents them from participating, like a physical inability to get their transactions processed. What else could stop them? The ONLY thing that I think would do it is if the price stopped rising. Do you have another idea?

So either we will eventually get a network congestion failure or a complete halt in price appreciation without additional capacity.  This is not an opinion. This is a logical certainty. 

[marcus_of_augustus]

So either we will eventually get a network congestion failure or a complete halt in price appreciation without additional capacity.  This is not an opinion. This is a logical certainty.  

... this idiotic statement refuses to acknowledge that there are already a great number of bitcoin transactions that do not take place on the bitcoin network, and they can also lead to price appreciation from an increased network effect.

Your argument is simplistically idiotic because it is the equivalent of saying that if everybody cannot use FedWire then USdollar usage cannot increase.

[DaRude]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.

So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.

However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.

So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take  1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.

So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.

Right now someone is buying up* BTC3600 every single day. Come july only BTC1800 in new coins will be available for sale. With so much unknown your 3% math makes me laugh.

*Someone doesn't mean one entity. Even if miners decide to carry BTC on their balance sheets then they're doing the buying themselves.

when I buy a bitcoin post halving I am not competing with others to buy the 1800 just minted. I am competing with others in a 15 million bitcoin market. The lessening of supply by 1800 is peanuts and will not move the price.

yes if miners keep their coins they are in effect buying them but at what price? Or rather what price do they wish to sell to pay for electricity etc. I understand alot of minors sell off market to big buyers at much lower prices than the "going' retail bitcoin price.

you are right my 3% is just a guess. But there is no way of being accurate - all i know is the price rise as a result of halving is very very unlikely.
what is your guess for the price in mid july? Post it and we will see who is more accurate then.

No you're not competing with the other 15mil bitcoin market, as most of those bitcoins are NOT for sale. That's basic economics. I don't think we can go any further if you don't agree with basic supply vs. demand concept

As far as predicting the price, i have 16 coins, and one of them will predict correct up/down market moves 4 times in a row!!!!!! 

[JayJuanGee]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.

So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.

However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.

So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take  1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.

So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.

That sounds like nearly a sure bet.... not only free money, but easy money.   

[JayJuanGee]

The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?

My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

Who is they?

 You are talking about the overall BTC market price? 

BTC's Market price is determined by a large number of diverse people and entities with diverse agendas, and likely a lot of them consider what others are doing in order to decide their own behaviors (whether buying, selling or holding), and at the same time, some individuals/entities follow formulas based on their own perspectives and risk tolerances in order to front-run what they believe others are likely to do. 

I will concede that some "they s" are more powerful and influential than other "they s" in moving BTC's market prices, but even so, those they s likely do not determine with any kind of precision BTC's price movements.

They = market makers. Whoever that might be.

Yes, "they" exist, but I believe it is too conspiratorial to concede them too much weight and credit.

[marcus_of_augustus]

halving is not priced in, if it does go up due to halving it will be 2 or months after halving. Prices are set on the margin and monetary pricing is always very sticky, i.e. hovering around big numbers for long times and then moving rapidly to next big number 'set-point', due to unit denomination psychology.