Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fatman3001]

@ -09:07 Roger Ver thinks it takes at least another year, and likely many years, before LN is ready on mainnet.
http://www.alexfortin.com/rogerver/

Roger Ver of "Mt.Gox is fine" fame.

A year may be accurate . Expectations are 3rd Q this year from devs , but in reality there will likely be delays as they need to wait for segwit to activate and than test on testnet. But it is hard to say Because segwit has been on the main bitcoin testnet for over 1 month and i know of many developers testing LN right now as we speak so in reality we could see some early implementations this year.

Maybe it would be a good idea to start testing 2/4/8mb blocks in the meantime.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Even if we get some code for a hard fork this year, what happens when the miners want to run with it, but the nodes won't budge? (Again.) Is that just the mechanism doin' it's thing?

[Fatman3001]

Even if we get some code for a hard fork this year, what happens when the miners want to run with it, but the nodes won't budge? (Again.) Is that just the mechanism doin' it's thing?

They could just copy/paste some classic code or bitpays adaptive block size today and have it running by tomorrow. And if they do this in secret you'll have a Dr. Merkwürdigliebe scenario.

What I worry about is if a safe LN is 2-4 years away. And we're too hung up about who said what to actually allow the 1MB cap to be safely lifted in the meantime.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Even if we get some code for a hard fork this year, what happens when the miners want to run with it, but the nodes won't budge? (Again.) Is that just the mechanism doin' it's thing?

They could just copy/paste some classic code or bitpays adaptive block size today and have it running by tomorrow. And if they do this in secret you'll have a Dr. Merkwürdigliebe scenario.

What I worry about is if a safe LN is 2-4 years away. And we're too hung up about who said what to actually allow the 1MB cap to be safely lifted in the meantime.

Imagine a world with indecisive types who'd prefer maybe not to see a hf ever. Be as optimistic as you can. Would we have inevitably crippled Bitcoin?

[Fatman3001]

Even if we get some code for a hard fork this year, what happens when the miners want to run with it, but the nodes won't budge? (Again.) Is that just the mechanism doin' it's thing?

They could just copy/paste some classic code or bitpays adaptive block size today and have it running by tomorrow. And if they do this in secret you'll have a Dr. Merkwürdigliebe scenario.

What I worry about is if a safe LN is 2-4 years away. And we're too hung up about who said what to actually allow the 1MB cap to be safely lifted in the meantime.

Imagine a world with indecisive types who'd prefer maybe not to see a hf ever. Be as optimistic as you can. Would we have inevitably crippled Bitcoin?

That will only happen if everyone bows down to fear mongering idiots. Like with Brexit or Donald Trump. Surely there are no such people in Bitcoin.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Even if we get some code for a hard fork this year, what happens when the miners want to run with it, but the nodes won't budge? (Again.) Is that just the mechanism doin' it's thing?

They could just copy/paste some classic code or bitpays adaptive block size today and have it running by tomorrow. And if they do this in secret you'll have a Dr. Merkwürdigliebe scenario.

What I worry about is if a safe LN is 2-4 years away. And we're too hung up about who said what to actually allow the 1MB cap to be safely lifted in the meantime.

Imagine a world with indecisive types who'd prefer maybe not to see a hf ever. Be as optimistic as you can. Would we have inevitably crippled Bitcoin?

That will only happen if everyone bows down to fear mongering idiots. Like with Brexit or Donald Trump. Surely there are no such people in Bitcoin.

To be continued then...

Is politics really a fitting analog here tho, I wonder. It's a tech community, after all. A tyranny of a majority of Chinese mines doesn't sit square with me either.

Proper representative democracy here is what we have now, arguably; informally elected code-leaders, not putting every foundational vote before Joe miner. Innit?

[Fatman3001]

Even if we get some code for a hard fork this year, what happens when the miners want to run with it, but the nodes won't budge? (Again.) Is that just the mechanism doin' it's thing?

They could just copy/paste some classic code or bitpays adaptive block size today and have it running by tomorrow. And if they do this in secret you'll have a Dr. Merkwürdigliebe scenario.

What I worry about is if a safe LN is 2-4 years away. And we're too hung up about who said what to actually allow the 1MB cap to be safely lifted in the meantime.

Imagine a world with indecisive types who'd prefer maybe not to see a hf ever. Be as optimistic as you can. Would we have inevitably crippled Bitcoin?

That will only happen if everyone bows down to fear mongering idiots. Like with Brexit or Donald Trump. Surely there are no such people in Bitcoin.

To be continued then...

Is politics really a fitting analog here tho, I wonder. It's a tech community, after all. A tyranny of a majority of Chinese mines doesn't sit square with me either.

The chinese miners are here now whether you like it or not. If they turn into a tyranny they'll be mining on a dead fork before long. What you asked was no more hf. Which I would say is analogous to extreme constitutional conservatism. Bitcoin isn't a purely technical community. The challenges it faces aren't purely technical. The hf challenge is definitely not purely technical. We know hard forks can be done. It happens all the time. France is on its fifth constitution and the US considers theirs as holier than the bible.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Yeah bitcoin just needs its 6th constitution like France ... and its not really a technical thingy anyway. Socialism will fix everything in the end, just trust us you don't really need to eat when food prices go up too much.

Idiots abound.

[Fatman3001]

Yeah bitcoin just needs its 6th constitution like France ... and its not really a technical thingy anyway. Socialism will fix everything in the end, just trust us you don't really need to eat when food prices go up too much.

Idiots abound.

Yah, I see analogies aren't your strong suit.

[dumbfbrankings]

You know I love you Fatty, but after the Ethereum fiasco, doesn't the prospect of periodic hard froks make you uneasy? It makes me uneasy. XMR does it. Does it work ok for them?

I don't really follow you. Ethereum got squashed by smart contracts (sort of like LN will have) and xmr is kept back by only catering for technically minded nationalistic sociopaths.

I heard somewhere xmr has periodic hard froks. I don't know. Nevermind. I'm still piecing it together in my head. Let me try to reprhase that whole thing.



Edit: I'd like to know your thoughts on the impending ETH hard fork, and if you think planned, routine hard forks are a good idea generally?
Post Edit: I'm sincerely asking. I'm not smart enough for crypto sarcasm

Eth wasn't supposed to be a BTC competitor. Immutability is not thought of as sacred in ethereum. Such a fork would be catastrophic in BTC, but in eth it might make sense. I'd vote against it because it was obvious to anyone with half a brain that something like this would happen. Other hard forks seem to have gone through fairly smoothly though.
...

In my mind, if ETH hard forks to bail out reckless investors in the DAO, it’s over. It may live on, in some form, and with some market value, but I’m not interested. If they don’t HF to bail out a faulty contract, or if a minority branch survives… that would be more interesting to me.

Even if we get some code for a hard fork this year, what happens when the miners want to run with it, but the nodes won't budge? (Again.) Is that just the mechanism doin' it's thing?

We could see miners activate some kind of increase, maybe at 90% of blocks… and then manually limit themselves to 1MB for a while. They would be exercising their free will and sending as strong a message as possible, but without the traumatizing effect of forking the network right away. They could wait until they felt confident that the economic majority was behind them.   

Imagine a world with indecisive types who'd prefer maybe not to see a hf ever. Be as optimistic as you can. Would we have inevitably crippled Bitcoin?

They would have to HF at least once, to change the PoW, but that’s their choice. The other Bitcoin would have moved on without them.

That will only happen if everyone bows down to fear mongering idiots. Like with Brexit or Donald Trump. Surely there are no such people in Bitcoin.

Don’t bring non-neckbeard politics into this. I would say it’s the contrary. Think deference to the power structure of the status quo, pulling the heart strings about “the least rasb pi node among us”. Plus, the narrative is spoon-fed by centrally controlled channels of information.

Proper representative democracy here is what we have now, arguably; informally elected code-leaders, not putting every foundational vote before Joe miner. Innit?

The chinese miners are here now whether you like it or not. If they turn into a tyranny they'll be mining on a dead fork before long. What you asked was no more hf. Which I would say is analogous to extreme constitutional conservatism. Bitcoin isn't a purely technical community. The challenges it faces aren't purely technical. The hf challenge is definitely not purely technical. We know hard forks can be done. It happens all the time. France is on its fifth constitution and the US considers theirs as holier than the bible.

The bible can’t even pretend to have the moral integrity of the US constitution, not without inciting laughter. (Examples of it being ignored are not indictments of the principles therein.)

[Karartma1]

there's a storm coming which is called halving. Something is going to happen, I don't believe this trading volume will happen much longer

Yes, but it may not storm immediately. The day of the first halving was uneventful. It took a few months for the real action to start.

I'm sure by the year's end we'll see the effects of the second halving.

Jimbo I would disagree on this since it's a big change this time compared to the last halving. Miners will see their conditions changing from one day to the other. Today you get 25 tomorrow you'll get 12.5

That's why I think there could be some changes in the short term and one, of course, is a pump

[Karpeles]

there's a storm coming which is called halving. Something is going to happen, I don't believe this trading volume will happen much longer

Yes, but it may not storm immediately. The day of the first halving was uneventful. It took a few months for the real action to start.

I'm sure by the year's end we'll see the effects of the second halving.

But at that time price the market was smaller and with less manipulation, in fact was almost nonexistent compared to today.
Now we have professional whales around and they know how it is supposed to be, dump when the event happen

[marcus_of_augustus]

there's a storm coming which is called halving. Something is going to happen, I don't believe this trading volume will happen much longer

Yes, but it may not storm immediately. The day of the first halving was uneventful. It took a few months for the real action to start.

I'm sure by the year's end we'll see the effects of the second halving.

But at that time price the market was smaller and with less manipulation, in fact was almost nonexistent compared to today.
Now we have professional whales around and they know how it is supposed to be, dump when the event happen

This time virtually all miners are commercial and place significant portions of their output onto the market immediately, out of commercial necessity. The last halving there were still mostly hobbyists who just sat on the coins or otherwise squandered them away or delayed coming to market/exchanges. Therefore this halving the market will almost immediately feel the impact of 1800 coins per day not being supplied to the market.

And it is cumulative, 1800 coins per day less, every day, forever.

[Tzupy]

http://www.coindesk.com/european-union-proposes-tighter-bitcoin-controls-panama-papers-response/

[r0ach]

The chinese miners are here now whether you like it or not.

What about the Goy?  Do you think the Goys of Summer are driving up the price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1540867.0

[Meuh6879]

454 blks left.

[USB-S]

Even if we get some code for a hard fork this year, what happens when the miners want to run with it, but the nodes won't budge? (Again.) Is that just the mechanism doin' it's thing?

They could just copy/paste some classic code or bitpays adaptive block size today and have it running by tomorrow. And if they do this in secret you'll have a Dr. Merkwürdigliebe scenario.

What I worry about is if a safe LN is 2-4 years away. And we're too hung up about who said what to actually allow the 1MB cap to be safely lifted in the meantime.

Imagine a world with indecisive types who'd prefer maybe not to see a hf ever. Be as optimistic as you can. Would we have inevitably crippled Bitcoin?

That will only happen if everyone bows down to fear mongering idiots. Like with Brexit or Donald Trump. Surely there are no such people in Bitcoin.

To be continued then...

Is politics really a fitting analog here tho, I wonder. It's a tech community, after all. A tyranny of a majority of Chinese mines doesn't sit square with me either.

Proper representative democracy here is what we have now, arguably; informally elected code-leaders, not putting every foundational vote before Joe miner. Innit?

What about Sybil attack?
I bet if the miners manage to gather the required hasing power, gathering the required node count shouldn't be an issue.

[Bulgarian]

Hello from the Bulgaria, everybody !

It is not very a happy here in the Bulgaria , our Bulgarian the lev keeps inflating the relative filthy the US dollar . Our Bulgarian the President Rosen the Plevneliev refuses to run again , and even our the Bulgarian the Socialist opposition leader , Korneliya the Ninova , don't want to run .

That is how bad the things have got .

With the 3 days left to go to the halving , when the Bulgarian sources tell me the price will the double for the sure , is it too late for me to go "all" in on the Bitcoin ?

[Elwar]

Hello from the Bulgaria, everybody !

It is not very a happy here in the Bulgaria , our Bulgarian the lev keeps inflating the relative filthy the US dollar . Our Bulgarian the President Rosen the Plevneliev refuses to run again , and even our the Bulgarian the Socialist opposition leader , Korneliya the Ninova , don't want to run .

That is how bad the things have got .

With the 3 days left to go to the halving , when the Bulgarian sources tell me the price will the double for the sure , is it too late for me to go "all" in on the Bitcoin ?

It's not about the price doubling. It's about getting your funds out of an inflationary currency.

If you could use dollars instead of the Bulgarian lev would you?

Bitcoin is like that but better when it comes to inflation. And you can use Bitcoin all over the Internet.

[conspirosphere.tk]

What about the Goy?  Do you think the Goys of Summer are driving up the price?

They would better hurry up.