Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

3 days of fear

[1715078793]

1715078793

[1715078793]

1715078793

[kurious]

3 days of fear

Could be, but it's either today by just around 5.00pm EST, or on Monday - depending on how you interpret the rules on a Saturday deadline.

It's a Saturday as it was set up as deadline for a definite decision of 'X months from Y date' but the rule book seems to say 'if it falls on a weekend or holiday, then the next business day' - I have had someone point out that this depends on the application 'type' - so it is not clear `and I am clueless.

Keep an eye til NYC is past 6.00 today and if it ain't announced, then start watching again on Monday 9.00am their time.

[kurious]

Price will hardly move beyond +/-5% change in either direction after announcement. Market will forget it in just 2 days whatever this decision is and will focus again on blah-blah like blocksize and hard forks.

You are way off in your last few comments and if you are interested in making a bet I will give you 2:1 odds on the market not moving 10% up/down after the first 24 hours. Will also make a bet with you on it going below $1000 if not approved. If you really believe what you are writing just PM me and we can set something up.

Becoin, he's right - don't take the bet. 5% is daily change of no great import, it could even be considered 'normal'.  

The ETF is a big deal - it's not a 5% moment.


EDIT: I don't disagree with you that the Block size / HF debate is the 'elephant in the room'.

[york780]

I will. At least i hope you dont believe in a silent approval arent you? Its just like you are in a club and you talk to a girl like; hey how you doing? , and aferwards she doesnt respond and walks away. That doesnt mean that she approves ^^. There will be an statement from SEC for sure , negative or positive.

[becoin]

If ETH will approve we will jump in 1-2 days to 1500$ for sure.

Only 300 million dollars are expected to enter this ETF during first week if approved. Certainly, not enough to drive bitcoin market cap 20% up.

$300m in a week is way more than enough to drive the price up 20%.

The amount of BTC traded is a tiny fraction of the market cap.  That would be huge.

How is 300 million 20% out of 20 billion?

Trading means one buys and one sells which is zero sum game! Amount of traded BTC doesn't affect market cap at all.

[york780]

There is a much larger picture of course. The possibility of 300 mln on a weekly basics extra is huge. Thats why when ETF is denied we will drop to lower levels.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

There is a much larger picture of course. The possibility of 300 mln on a weekly basics extra is huge. Thats why when ETF is denied we will drop to lower levels.

I agree. People will sell then others will panic sell. It's a snowball effect, best thing to do is just HODL.

[becoin]

You are way off in your last few comments and if you are interested in making a bet I will give you 2:1 odds on the market not moving 10% up/down after the first 24 hours.

Who are you? How will you guarantee your bet?
Why should I go through the hassle of escrowing a bet with a stranger if there is already a market and I can bet whatever I can on that market?

[K~Ehleyr]

But surely that $300 million wouldn't really come straight into bitcoin?  I don't know how many coins the Winklevii have but surely it's their own coins that will be used for the fund.  The bitcoin markets will only benefit after all the Winklevii coins have been fully subscribed and they need to buy more to supply investor demand, no?

Unless I'm misunderstanding something there, then approval won't mean a huge injection of market cap for bitcoin, it will only encourage further speculation from direct bitcoin investors hoping that capital will seep through into bitcoin eventually.  And if it's rejected, well, nada.  The recent rise was going to happen anyway.  I really don't see the price falling below $1,000.  Rejection might even be seen as a positive move for normal traders because it would mean no change from the status quo, no uncertainty, no more worrying about the effects, and bitcoin can continue the upward trajectory it was already on unhindered.

[york780]

I dont agree. When the market knows that there wont be an extra 300 mln invested in the market every week they will be very dissapointed. This will result in lower price levels.

[gentlemand]

approval won't mean a huge injection of market cap for bitcoin, it will only encourage further speculation from direct bitcoin investors hoping that capital will seep through into bitcoin eventually.

Who the hell do you think you are with your attention to details and facts?

Like almost all good news it goes in the future bank, not the immediate one, but it'll inspire a short term pump because the usual suspects like them. It could be years before they have to buy coins on the market.

It is perhaps easy to underestimate the effect of American money unleashed though. We'll see.

Ultimately it makes Bitcoin safer and easier to get exposure to but it still does nothing to inspire people who were previously indifferent to actually want to do that.

[Bitsinmyhead]

Who are you? How will you guarantee your bet?
Why should I go through the hassle of escrowing a bet with a stranger if there is already a market and I can bet whatever I can on that market?

I am sure we can find someone to escrow our bet. I will pay all escrow fees and I am sure I can offer you enough action to make it worth your time  

You should take the bet because you seem very sure about what you are saying and I am offering 2:1 so even if you are only 50% sure you would be printing money by taking the bet.

I do not think there is a market available where you can bet directly on the volatility after the ETF decision, but if there is, please inform me where I can find it.  

[becoin]

I do not think there is a market available where you can bet directly on the volatility after the ETF decision, but if there is, please inform me where I can find it.

You can do it on every exchange. You simply place stop loss sell order at -5% and take profit at -10%. For upward movement you place stop loss buy order at +5% and take profit at +10% calculated on current price. Hope that solves your problem?

[marcus_of_augustus]

Approved?

[ErisDiscordia]

Approved

All I see is pump. Insider knowledge?

[marcus_of_augustus]

Approved

All I see is pump. Insider knowledge?

Seems suspiciously like it ...

[JimboToronto]

Woo hoo. Just woke up to use the can, checked the price and got to see some real action.

Early news of ETF approval?

Now I don't want to go back to bed.

[Bitsinmyhead]

You can do it on every exchange. You simply place stop loss sell order at -5% and take profit at -10%. For upward movement you place stop loss buy order at +5% and take profit at +10% calculated on current price. Hope that solves your problem?

Thanks, but I simply fear the slippage will kill this kind of trade for me. It will be huge IMO, but if you don't expect a 5% move I guess you don't expect much slippage either so that is fair.

Anyways, I put my money where my mouth is and the bet is open for anyone who wants it, so I guess I am now at least entitled to come back to gloat (or apologize to you) when we see the results. Good luck!

[ErisDiscordia]

WHOAAA!!!!   

[Paashaas]

WoW a nice $40 pump in just one go

Edit; $1300 thats $100 in a flash