Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cellard]

A question for the specialists here:

So some entities are liquidating large quantities of BTC to pump up BitcrashCoin, but the price of BTC remains quasi unaffected.

That maybe means there is a substantial inflow of fiat ?

And if these same entities are really planning to, at a certain point, cash their Bitcrash coins out, then what will happen with all
the others who bought that thing?

It will be very funny if schism happens in a couple of months due to Core still firm with Segwit and BitcrashCoin takes over the top.    

Would that be a realistic possibillity?

If (enough) miners switched from BTC to BTH because it was more profitable to mine, it could cause problems for BTC.  So yes, it's possible - but the whole market could lose faith with Bitcoin (both) altogether - and no one really wants to kill the golden goose. I hope.

EDIT: for clarity

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

[RayX12]

....
Come on bad guys, come on! PUMP IT to $1200!!! It will be good for you!  

Yea pump it mother f$%& and I will dump it as well.. with much profit!  

[bones261]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going sideways... currently $4106USD/$5167CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

AltcoinCash is also going sideways... $723USD/$910CAD (Coinmarketcap).

Neither a rally nor a dip this weekend. I guess a lot of people are waiting to see what happens on Wednesday.

I'm guessing it won't be as dramatic as some people think.

[jojo69]

Well, this is pretty funny, someone breached my bitcointalk account, deleted everything and all traces of the goyim knowing, then immediately starts shilling for....bitcoincash and....TETHER:

ROFL!

[suzanne5223]

A question for the specialists here:

So some entities are liquidating large quantities of BTC to pump up BitcrashCoin, but the price of BTC remains quasi unaffected.

That maybe means there is a substantial inflow of fiat ?

And if these same entities are really planning to, at a certain point, cash their Bitcrash coins out, then what will happen with all
the others who bought that thing?

It will be very funny if schism happens in a couple of months due to Core still firm with Segwit and BitcrashCoin takes over the top.    

Would that be a realistic possibillity?

If (enough) miners switched from BTC to BTH because it was more profitable to mine, it could cause problems for BTC.  So yes, it's possible - but the whole market could lose faith with Bitcoin (both) altogether - and no one really wants to kill the golden goose. I hope.

EDIT: for clarity

Enough miners won't move from mining of BTC to BCH because of the mining profitable of BCH and if that happen it because they want to make some $$ from the pumping of BCH and convert their BCH later into BTC.
EDIT : Only an ignorant person will switch from BTC which usually surge 2 times than it dump to newly born BCH which could crash anytime.

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

I might have missed it, but does anyone have an explanation for the price difference between Finex and Stamp (usd)?

[kurious]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again? 

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

[Ludwig Von]

What I find funny is the number of troll accounts here, still pretending to be pro-Bitcoin.

You can easily peg them by the constant fixation with BCH and all the concern trolling posts and the "what if?" posts.

Never the less, if this Mr. Ver en Mr. Wu are as significant as they seem to be, this whole action is to be taken serious. And if it has to do with China, then the more so.

[bitserve]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

Looking at the high frequency of blocks it is spitting, it should be maximun difficulty increment. BUT, IIRC the algo for increasing difficulty does the same as in Bitcoin, so no extreme increment. The difficulty decrease it is much faster when blocks are being slow.

Please someone that has taken the time to review the details correct me.

I am trying to keep around 50% of my original BCH until the price pumps again (if ever).

[Torque]

Never the less, if this Mr. Ver en Mr. Wu are as significant as they seem to be

They aren't.

[bones261]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

[empowering]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

You can keep an eye on it here - http://bitcointicker.co/bccnetworkstats/


Current Difficulty:   68222137509
Est. Next Difficulty:   42388559987
Est. Difficulty change:   -37.87%
Speculative Diff. change:   75.51%
Diff calc since fork:   1.41%
Next Diff. change in:   1741 blocks

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I have to say, it feels very good to have collected on my fork cash.

[bones261]

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

You can keep an eye on it here - http://bitcointicker.co/bccnetworkstats/


Current Difficulty:   68222137509
Est. Next Difficulty:   42388559987
Est. Difficulty change:   -37.87%
Speculative Diff. change:   75.51%
Diff calc since fork:   1.41%
Next Diff. change in:   1741 blocks

That next difficulty change is calculated wrong on that web page. I understand though. Who is used to considering such ridiculous extremes? The maximum difficulty change upward is only 4x or a factor of 4.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target
I'm assuming that when the Bitcoin Cash devs fiddled with the difficulty adjustment that they didn't screw that maximum up. A drastic difficulty change of 6x, or a factor of 6 would be devastating.

[empowering]

I have to say, it feels very good to have collected on my fork cash.

You should treat yourself..... oh go on  

What will it be?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I have to say, it feels very good to have collected on my fork cash.

You should treat yourself..... oh go on  

What will it be?

I'm going to lather myself in richly oils and feed myself grapes all day.

[AlexGR]

This is a short lived pump and dump. BTC is still more profitable to mine considering the higher fees, BitcoinCrash will always have a bigger blocksize, therefore, it will always have lower fees. The profitability due hasrate fluctuation is temporal, miners know that they can't gamble too much trying to profit from this, because if they screw up the real Bitcoin, their whole business would collapse.

The miners are going to blow through these 2016 blocks in a day or two. After that the difficulty is going to skyrocket for BCH. Probably close to the 4x limit. I think it's going to be game over for BCH when that happens.

Any idea how he diff will change at this point % wise? If it's massive, will it put them under profitability again?  

If so, I need to dump the rest of my BCH.  Been hanging on to half to see what happens....

It could go up 4x or be 400% what it is now. The difficulty would shoot up to 272888550039. In order to be on parity with BTC difficulty, they would need to put the buy support at almost .3 BTC per BCH. The slowdown in hashrate could cause their special difficulty adjustment to kick in, but this takes at least 24 hours of blocks coming in at slower than 1 per 2 hours. The only other reprieve would be the upcoming difficulty adjustment upwards of BTC. If the BCH difficulty only went up 3x or 300% of what it is now, the buy support would need to be at a little over .22BTC for profitability to be on parity with BTC. With the current block emission rate at about 3 blocks per 10 minutes, its likely the next difficulty adjustment will go up by 300% or more, if their current hash rate remains stable.

Keep in mind that profitability calculators do not factor BTC fees into the equation. When you have 1-3 BTC per block, that's a substantial amount that can increase BTC profitability by 8-25%.

In fact, BTC fees are also a mechanism which allow BTC to "recover" in case of hashrate going away. Let's say tomorrow a very hot sha256 coin appears and hashrate goes down a lot. At that point block emission is reduced substantially, but the competition between people wanting to get first priority, in the first mined block, increases a lot also. So the first block mined will include the highest-fee transactions, and this could amount to something like 6-7-8 BTC - or more. If blocks take too long, at that point the block reward may even be doubled or surpassed by the tx fees that want first priority. This remedies profitability despite difficulty remaining the same.

On the other hand, if BTC's blocks were large enough to clear the mempool of any minimum-fee-transaction, even if the blocks took an hour to arrive due to lost hashrate, this built-in incentive wouldn't even be there. In a way, the increased fee pressure, which currently replenishes some of the lost miner income (after the halving), acts as a protective shield. In other words it pays to follow a "glide path" from a full-blown subsidy economy that has near-zero fees, to a full-blown fee economy where subsidy is practically zero, and doing so in steps.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/898023883361722368
Who needs replay protection when you have grapes?

[Last of the V8s]

They didn't think much to the Ocean
The waves, they were fiddlin' and small
There was no wrecks and nobody drownded
Fact, nothing to laugh at, at all.