Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

oo a guy from wizsec re MtGox on Breaking Bitcoin live stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCE2OzKIab8
Jimmy Song earlier

it just stated, that MT Gox was robbed on sept 11?!?

Coincidence you think?


Wanna guess when is the IRMA hurricane going to hit the coast of Florida?

Coincidence?  

https://www.instagram.com/p/BYyJPagjBQl/

http://www.snopes.com/category-7-harvey-irma/

"None of the storms or hurricanes in the movie are called Harvey or Irma. Furthermore, Category 7: End of the World was broadcast on 6 and 13 November 2005 – which was 11 years and 10 months (not nine months) before Hurricane Irma’s expected landfall in Florida on 10 September 2017. So the meme’s two key claims are false."

"However, even if these claims were accurate, they would have no sinister meaning.

Atlantic hurricanes are named from a prescribed list of names that are rotated every six years and published in advance. So we already know the list of potential hurricane names for 2018, 2019, and every year for the foreseeable future, unless they are changed by the World Meteorological Association. "

[mgld]

Hi,

I am an absolute newby to this forum, this is my first post. On the other hand, I have been trading financial assets for quite some time.  

I expected today's BTC dip, whatever the supposed reason for it would come out to be (i.e. fake news from China) on the basis  of :

1. a simple analysis of trading volumes analyzed on various time frames

2. the application of Fibonacci retracement levels to the previous leg up

3. the application of Eliot's wave count to the previous leg up (impulse wave) and to the current leg down (correction wave)


Technical analysis is not science  and its various tools are not always churning out foolproof answers.  Some tools work better ( = more often and on more type of financial assets) than others, but even those can fail ( = give false signals).   In my experience,  Eliot and Fibonacci have the best predictive power because they are not based on averages of past datas but on eternal or, at least, recurrent human behavioural patterns.

This said,  I put out my 5 cents of wisdom to say that the market will find its way to correct lower  before it resumes its way up.  I have set a number of buying orders at decreasing price levels between 4000 and 3000 USD  so, to put my mouth where my money is, this is what I can recommend to others as well.

Good trades everybody !

Sure your post sounds reasonable newbie; however, you need to account for s-curve adoption, metcalfe networking principles and that bitcoin is an immature technology that is also going through fundamental extreme attacks and even weirdness in the cryptospace on a broader level with a variety of random and extreme performances of ICOs and alt coins, and that is where the fucktard over reliance on technical analysis frequently screws up with their assertions about supposed inevitable needs for correction in a kind of false equivalency about bitcoin being a supposed mature market.

Sure you could be correct this time (a stopped clock is correct twice a day), but please present your technical analysis with a bit more grains of salt and accounting for both the immature price finding aspect of bitcoin and the s-curve analysis which are important factors to not leave out when you are arriving at your supposed "reasonable" technical analysis conclusions and advices.

I agree with everything you say and there certainly are specific dynamics in the bitcoin market which can throw off the scale many a technical indicator, but still the people trading it have , in average, the same psychological framework as the people active, say,  in the Forex market or the stock market. Actually, I dare say,  the bitcoin market seem to have attracted large numbers of new and rather inexperienced traders that fall easily prey of the professionals that, make no mistake, are plying this market too. It is enough to look at 5 minutes charts and the order book to see the so called "whales" gobbling up and down the plancton as they please.

The technology behind bitcoin maybe new, but the mindset of people trading it seems to be the usual on  and for this reason it seems to me -  and this is just my humble opinion, as I do not presume to the express the truth - that certain technical analysis tools like Fibonacci retracements and Elliot waves  do have some predictive power, until of course they are proven wrong because the first rule of any trader should be always to act upon othe price & volume action in front of his eyes  rather than the theories (about what price & volume should  do) in holds in his mind.

At the risk of attracting some criticism, I say also that many of the traders seem to couple their inexperience with an equal amount of arrogance, which expresses itself in the form of a refusal to apply to bitcoins trading the tools of conventional technical analysis.  It is absolutely true that TA tools do not work all the time nor on all assets,  but this is true not only for bitcoins but also for other traditional financiall assets.  Again it is true that certain TA tools are extrapolations of past price action with scarce predictive power in a market so young and exuberant as the bitcoins.  This said, having some kind of tool - that you can fully customize according to your own assumptions - to analyse and dissect the price & volume action to try and make sense of it, is in my opinion better than having none and relying on hearsay or pump & dump speculations.

To conclude, based on Fibonacci and Elliot,  I think BTC is undergoing a correction within an uptrend, that will resume once the correction is done.   I think this correction will reach down to about 3800 USD  as a minimum and 2800 USD as a maximum  and extend itself over 3-10 trading days depending on how deep it will reach.  A break over 4670 USD in strong volumes would invalidate my hypothesis.

I do not recommend to sell BTC short , unless the exchange you are using guarantees you very swift trade executions, because the drop could stop and reverse very quickly due to any number of reasons because, as I said, the underlying trend is upwards.

If you want to own BTC,  buy at regular intervals on the way down.  If you own BTC, sell some of it at present levels and rebuy the same quantity at lower levels on the way down.

This is what I am going to do and, of course, I might be wrong and I will pay the price of errors

[bones261]

OK, it's getting depressive taking a bullish aspect. So now I am going to switch to bearish, again. So were can I participate in margin shorting BTC vs fiat, as an American? I would prefer an easy verification process.

You'll be in time to short the bottom.  You know somebody's gotta do it.  Good on ya  

Yeah.. .Bones261.. you talk about not having very many bitcoins, and if you are making moves like this (planning to short), you are setting yourself up for decent odds of reducing your bitcoin holdings further

There are strategies that consistently work with bitcoin, and margin betting is not one of them.

After a good night's sleep, I decided not to bother. I guess that I'll just continue to have a small portion of my holdings participate in Margin Lending on Polo. Unfortunately, the online bot that I was using recently changed their web address, and appears to be malfunctioning, so I have to manually do it. What a pain.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we've leveled out after yesterday's fake news panic and dip and we're consolidating sideways again... currently $4314USD/$5246CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

AltcoinCash continues to slip... $551USD/$670CAD (Coinmarketcap).

When are people going to stop panicking over unsubstantiated rumors dressed up as "reports from sources"? Never, I guess. Weaklings will always panic.

There will also always be bad journalism. Sigh.

[leowonderful]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we've leveled out after yesterday's fake news panic and dip and we're consolidating sideways again... currently $4314USD/$5246CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

AltcoinCash continues to slip... $551USD/$670CAD (Coinmarketcap).

When are people going to stop panicking over unsubstantiated rumors dressed up as "reports from sources"? Never, I guess. Weaklings will always panic.

There will also always be bad journalism. Sigh.

It'll continue in the future as more uninformed investors come into Crypto. I guess it's part of Bitcoin growing, hopefully people learn from this. We'll recover soon enough anyways.

[sirazimuth]

have to say those continuous ATH's last week were getting a bit bubbly.
nice to have some correction once in awhile.
keeps things honest.....
As Jimbo says... Go bitcoin...

[savetherainforest]

Hi,

I am an absolute newby to this forum, this is my first post. On the other hand, I have been trading financial assets for quite some time.  

I expected today's BTC dip, whatever the supposed reason for it would come out to be (i.e. fake news from China) on the basis  of :

1. a simple analysis of trading volumes analyzed on various time frames

2. the application of Fibonacci retracement levels to the previous leg up

3. the application of Eliot's wave count to the previous leg up (impulse wave) and to the current leg down (correction wave)


Technical analysis is not science  and its various tools are not always churning out foolproof answers.  Some tools work better ( = more often and on more type of financial assets) than others, but even those can fail ( = give false signals).   In my experience,  Eliot and Fibonacci have the best predictive power because they are not based on averages of past datas but on eternal or, at least, recurrent human behavioural patterns.

This said,  I put out my 5 cents of wisdom to say that the market will find its way to correct lower  before it resumes its way up.  I have set a number of buying orders at decreasing price levels between 4000 and 3000 USD  so, to put my mouth where my money is, this is what I can recommend to others as well.

Good trades everybody !

Sure your post sounds reasonable newbie; however, you need to account for s-curve adoption, metcalfe networking principles and that bitcoin is an immature technology that is also going through fundamental extreme attacks and even weirdness in the cryptospace on a broader level with a variety of random and extreme performances of ICOs and alt coins, and that is where the fucktard over reliance on technical analysis frequently screws up with their assertions about supposed inevitable needs for correction in a kind of false equivalency about bitcoin being a supposed mature market.

Sure you could be correct this time (a stopped clock is correct twice a day), but please present your technical analysis with a bit more grains of salt and accounting for both the immature price finding aspect of bitcoin and the s-curve analysis which are important factors to not leave out when you are arriving at your supposed "reasonable" technical analysis conclusions and advices.

I agree with everything you say and there certainly are specific dynamics in the bitcoin market which can throw off the scale many a technical indicator, but still the people trading it have , in average, the same psychological framework as the people active, say,  in the Forex market or the stock market. Actually, I dare say,  the bitcoin market seem to have attracted large numbers of new and rather inexperienced traders that fall easily prey of the professionals that, make no mistake, are plying this market too. It is enough to look at 5 minutes charts and the order book to see the so called "whales" gobbling up and down the plancton as they please.

The technology behind bitcoin maybe new, but the mindset of people trading it seems to be the usual on  and for this reason it seems to me -  and this is just my humble opinion, as I do not presume to the express the truth - that certain technical analysis tools like Fibonacci retracements and Elliot waves  do have some predictive power, until of course they are proven wrong because the first rule of any trader should be always to act upon othe price & volume action in front of his eyes  rather than the theories (about what price & volume should  do) in holds in his mind.

At the risk of attracting some criticism, I say also that many of the traders seem to couple their inexperience with an equal amount of arrogance, which expresses itself in the form of a refusal to apply to bitcoins trading the tools of conventional technical analysis.  It is absolutely true that TA tools do not work all the time nor on all assets,  but this is true not only for bitcoins but also for other traditional financiall assets.  Again it is true that certain TA tools are extrapolations of past price action with scarce predictive power in a market so young and exuberant as the bitcoins.  This said, having some kind of tool - that you can fully customize according to your own assumptions - to analyse and dissect the price & volume action to try and make sense of it, is in my opinion better than having none and relying on hearsay or pump & dump speculations.

To conclude, based on Fibonacci and Elliot,  I think BTC is undergoing a correction within an uptrend, that will resume once the correction is done.   I think this correction will reach down to about 3800 USD  as a minimum and 2800 USD as a maximum  and extend itself over 3-10 trading days depending on how deep it will reach.  A break over 4670 USD in strong volumes would invalidate my hypothesis.

I do not recommend to sell BTC short , unless the exchange you are using guarantees you very swift trade executions, because the drop could stop and reverse very quickly due to any number of reasons because, as I said, the underlying trend is upwards.

If you want to own BTC,  buy at regular intervals on the way down.  If you own BTC, sell some of it at present levels and rebuy the same quantity at lower levels on the way down.

This is what I am going to do and, of course, I might be wrong and I will pay the price of errors

Dear God. What have I witnessed??

JJG .. it seems you have found your nemesis! ... lmao...    

[lemmyK]

Good evening Bitcoinland.

Bitcoin again skewed into 4300 -  
ETH to into "stunning"  302 +/-  
sadly.. (or i will use trump twitter -SAD)  like 96% of the planet's inhabitants  do not have enough money to invest in the risk "casino chip"  IN name of Bitcoin )) .. now..  
everything is in chinese hands . investment from the west are minimally or embarrassing
You only sheep for slaughter..  
Canada dreaming about expensive casino chip  for  buy lost gold back in to state . or bankruptcy )))

[explorer]

Good evening Bitcoinland.

Bitcoin again skewed into 4300 -  
ETH to into "stunning"  302 +/-  
sadly.. (or i will use trump twitter -SAD)  like 96% of the planet's inhabitants. I do not have enough money to invest in the risk "casino chip"  IN name of Bitcoin )) .. now..  
everything is in chinese hands . investment from the west are minimally or embarrassing
You only sheep for slaughter..  
Canada dreaming about expensive casino chip  for  buy lost gold back in to state . or bankruptcy )))

Canada has been discreetly bankrupt for years.  The gold wan't "lost".  What kind of fucking moron sells nearly all gold reserves at the absolute bottom? (Besides England  )  Castrourdoeau just put the icing on the cake.  Or rather, licked it from the plate.  Even the Vampire Squid is buying physical gold, FFS.   If Canada had BTC  It would have been sold off at $152.

[Torque]

What kind of fucking moron sells nearly all gold reserves at the absolute bottom? (Besides England   )

Maduro did (and after Chavez spent so much time repatriating it back). Just look at Venezuela now.

[explorer]

What kind of fucking moron sells nearly all gold reserves at the absolute bottom? (Besides England   )

Maduro did (and after Chavez spent so much time repatriating it back). Just look at Venezuela now.

I looked, but didn't see much through the smoke...  Coming to a Theater Near You!

[podyx]

Why are we still heading down? Shit don't make sense

[FractalUniverse]

its still a minor correction. but it looks like we will have finally long red weekly candle.
Ill try to catch the bottom this time, but its hard to tell how deep it can be

[explorer]

Why are we still heading down? Shit don't make sense

Waiting for

Is crypto dead 

[mastrox92]

China Russia Bitcoin
 

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Bitcoin
 

[mastrox92]

its still a minor correction. but it looks like we will have finally long red weekly candle.
Ill try to catch the bottom this time, but its hard to tell how deep it can be

3000~3500

[mastrox92]

Bitcoin
 

...

[becoin]

Waiting for new ATH by the end of this month. It's inevitable.

[Meuh6879]

Interresting, they try ... but they don't have supply to ... plundge/discharge.

Wait for the monday morning to confirm ...



and all ALTcoins are ... very RED.