O.k. But does the fact that there are a lot of newbies who are being taken advantage of change any analysis.
I haven't observed the market long enough to draw definitive conclusions but the lack of trading experience of the many small investors seems to make it easier for the pros to make their moves which makes to the price & volume action look as if taken from a manual of TA principles, particularly on the shorter time frames (1 to 15 minutes). For those versed in TA this becomes an advantage if they trade on these short frames, as the pros moves become easier to read and anticipate.
Don't try to act as if you are the first person coming to this space and applying TA. There are all kinds of attempts at TA, and I am not discounting TA in its entirety, that's for sure. So yeah, some people use technical, and some people couch it with appropriate grains of salt, including considering exponential s-curve factors, metcalfe principles and the level of maturity of bitcoin as compared to various other markets... accounting for fundamentals and ta.
You are sure right and I didn't mean to imply I was the first one, sorry if I gave that impression
To conclude, based on Fibonacci and Elliot, I think BTC is undergoing a correction within an uptrend, that will resume once the correction is done. I think this correction will reach down to about 3800 USD as a minimum and 2800 USD as a maximum and extend itself over 3-10 trading days depending on how deep it will reach. A break over 4670 USD in strong volumes would invalidate my hypothesis.
That is a fairly reasonable way of rephrasing your proposition, and I have no real problems with that - even if I might assign differing probabilities and even have slightly different targets.
My targets are also slightly different, I mean I didn't set buy orders at round figures... one problem, though, with setting targets at very specific levels clearly identified by previous support/resistance level, trend lines, fibonacci levels, etc. is that the pros know them all too well and chances are they are going to spin the market around these marks very very fast, making it difficult for people to enter/exit the market at these specific and very precise levels. My suggestion is to identify the levels and then give it some leeway in setting your buy/sell orders erring on the side of caution to make sure your trades are executed.
Do you concede that we appear to be in a bull market and there is a pretty decent likelihood that we will continue in a bull market, in spite of possible shorter term corrections.
Actually, even currently, it is seeming like it could be difficult to break below $4k, so even reaching your upper side of a low of $3800 could be a bit of a struggle.. but surely not impossible... I am currently thinking that maybe 40% odds of reaching down to $3800... even though if we break below $4100 then the odds of going to $3800 become greater and may even become closer to 50/50 at that point, if we were to reach it.. but we have to reach it, first, no?
I concede we are in a bull market and I believe we are just undergoing a correction. Whether this is an ABC correction (3 steps Eliot wave) or proper impulse wave (5 steps) down - that temporarily inverts the trend - remains to be seen. In the first case I think the target is around 3800-3700 USD, in the second case around 2800-3000 USD. I'm unsure about the odds, but at the moment I see a slightly higher probability this is just an ABC correction, precisely because the underlaying bullish sentiment is so strong. Sooner or later however there will be a deeper correction that will retrace to at least -61,8% Fibonacci level of whatever upleg it will follow, meaning, for those not versed in TA jargon, that 2/3 of previous gains will be wiped out.
This is what I am going to do and, of course, I might be wrong and I will pay the price of errors
Of course, you can do what you want, and I personally don't bet too heavily in any direction - I play in a kind of incrementalist methodology that has been extremely profitable, and sure it is possible that there are ways that I could have made way more money, but incrementalism seems to work pretty well, including NOT betting too much at any one time regarding whether one direction is more likely than another (except maybe some tweaking, here and there, on the edges).
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I agree, incrementalism is in the long term the safest - and often also the most profitable - way to proceed unless you are very very confident to have nailed a long term bottom or top at which to take your position and times proves to be have been right. I stress the fact that these tops or bottoms have to be long term, to be seen on weekly or monthly time frames. These opportunities do not come around often. If you don't see one coming your way already, then incrementalism is definitely the best option.
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