Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

I understand the wet dream of every TA fan that sold their bitcoins sub $3k to have that level revisited but...  keep on dreaming! You'll wake up when we break $10k by the end of this year.

If we do - and that's the top - it will be followed by a retrace to $2000.

Cliff High says $13888 by next spring. So that could mean either:

 • $20k+ with retrace to $13 or
 • $13k with retrace to $3k next summer

We need that 80% retrace for the price to get baked in. Don't worry. The alts - in particular Dash - will take up the slack when it happens.

haha... so, you sold your bitcoins at $2k to buy dash. Oh, boy...

I'm thinking on allways same strategie Just buy and HODL on my coins allways same never ending story I GUESSSS

[JayJuanGee]

Completely WRONG! Bitcoin price is driven not by technicals but by fundamentals!
To trade bitcoin using TA during fundamental uptrend is totally unprofessional!

Completely wrong.

Where were you during the backside of the last big "China" spike in 2013 when it peaked out at $1200 ?

It had every bullish fundamental going for it - from Overstock adoption to new exchanges, to worldwide media attention to new associated fintech innovations, not to mention a ton of new wallet developers arriving on the scene.

All of that was NADA compared to the technical correction that ensued. Once the bear market kicks in, no amount of fundamentals can prevent it from running its course. A long term bearish crossover to a trader is a tidal reversal that no ship overcomes. During a major bullrun all "fundamentals" for at least the next 12 months get priced in anyway. It's when they arrive for real that the profit take starts.

It seems to be way too early to call a bear market, merely because we are experiencing a 20% plus correction.... within less than 2 weeks of the most recent ATH...   

In the end, you could be correct, that we are transitioning into a bear market,   but it is way too fucking early to smug about any such assertion based on our current circumstance, and whether confidence has been shaken or bears have taken control based on lilie bitsie exaggerated fud-train in recent days.

[Elwar]

If people are panic selling because of what some guy at JP Morgan said....GOOD.

I hope they go long on the dollar and buy war bonds. Maybe run up some credit card debt and pay overdraft fees to their banks. Enjoy your inflationary (on purpose!) currency.

[toknormal]

...but it is way too fucking early to smug about any such assertion based on our current circumstance, and whether confidence has been shaken or bears have taken control

Well we have a solid 7/30 Day SMA crossover and it looks like being an EMA one as well. We've only had 3 such crossovers this year - January, July and April - and in EACH case the market took us back to BELOW the previously established platform support, albeit temporarily. That would suggest that we're going to at least retest $2700 and possibly lower prior to further growth.

I'd say therefore it was prudent, not smug, to entertain the idea that bears will be in control for at least a while.

[JayJuanGee]

MT Gox had noting to do with that crash no

MT Gox gets far more credit that it deserves for that bear market. It was a technical consolidation, plain and simple because nothing does that many multiples of gain without a corresponding consolidation.

Look back in history at previous spikes - you'll see exactly the same thing.

If it retests $1850 at least once more you can start feeling bullish again. Even an 80% retrace wouldn't be unreasonable if this is the top which means that we're looking at around $900 for the retest before further long term growth.

Now you are coming off as a bit crazy with these kinds of numbers to attempting to assert some kind of 2013 parallel here including some kind of assertion that we have that same kind of level of over blowness in the current price and market.

I had not been invested in bitcoin at the time, but I can look at charts, and do you fucking realize the extreme difference between what happened in 2013 as compared with this situation?   not only in terms of isolated price but also in terms of the overall space and the amount of money coming into the space?  Compare it.

For the most part, there were two close to 10x price appreciations in 2013, which added up to about 77x price appreciation for the year (from $15 to $1163)... helrow?    Can you see it? 

At most we can call this something like a 20x over two years... perhaps going from about $250 to $5k. 

So both the timeline and the steepness of the slope was difference and the extremeness of the slope and the money coming into the space was quite different, too.  Sure some of those kinds of facts and differences can cut both ways in terms of whether we could call the same conditions today as a similar kind of overinflatted bubble as was more justifiable in 2013... 

So, hopefully, you are not shorting too hard in your attempt to suggest that there is some kind of strong downward correction that is somehow necessary (or maybe you are attempting to argue inevitable?) at the current time.

By the way, I am not claiming that I know much of anything, except to assert what you seem to be arguing and strongly outlining based on some kind of supposed mathematics (TA), is both premature and overstated.

[toknormal]

Now you are coming off as a bit crazy with these kinds of numbers to attempting to assert some kind of 2013 parallel here including some kind of assertion that we have that same kind of level of over blowness in the current price and market.

Your enthusiasm is admirable. But that's all it is - mania.

Traders take profits and that blows any mania to kingdom come when it comes to markets, so I'd be careful.

[Meuh6879]

So all the poeple who haves bitcoin
Are in a panic situation right now...

[JayJuanGee]

...but it is way too fucking early to smug about any such assertion based on our current circumstance, and whether confidence has been shaken or bears have taken control

Well we have a solid 7/30 Day SMA crossover and it looks like being an EMA one as well. We've only had 3 such crossovers this year - January, July and April - and in EACH case the market took us back to BELOW the previously established platform support, albeit temporarily. That would suggest that we're going to at least retest $2700 and possibly lower prior to further growth.

I'd say therefore it was prudent, not smug, to entertain the idea that bears will be in control for at least a while.

I don't have any problem entertaining ideas, as long as they are not framed as if they were some kind of mathematical inevitablility, and now you are suggesting a pretty strong case for $2700... so yeah right, we gotta get through a couple more support areas.. at least $3800, $3500 and $3k before $2700 becomes plausible.  I have my doubts about whether such a correction is as likely as you are making it out to be...   However, I am prepared to buy down to well below that point, so don't try to suggest that I am attempting to talk my book... On the other hand, I do not sell, especially after we have already had more than a 20% correction, as I type... so my strategy would either be to continue to buy or if I give a more likelihood to your scenario then I might buy less at these higher prices and save a bit more powder for the lower prices.. even though I still am not going to give a whole hell-of-a lot of weight to how much emphasis you seem to be giving to lines on a chart.       

[JayJuanGee]

Now you are coming off as a bit crazy with these kinds of numbers to attempting to assert some kind of 2013 parallel here including some kind of assertion that we have that same kind of level of over blowness in the current price and market.

Your enthusiasm is admirable. But that's all it is - mania.

Traders take profits and that blows any mania to kingdom come when it comes to markets, so I'd be careful.

I am prepared for downwards.. so I would not categorize my current sense of hostility to your various assertions of certitude as "mania".... 

[El duderino_]

So When are we breaking ATH

[Last of the V8s]

nfi

[ParabellumLite]

So When are we breaking ATH

Are you for real?

Are you really asking people to tell you this? First of all: do not trust strangers on the internet with respect to such answers. Second of all: no one knows for sure in the firs tplace.
Do you happen to be unsure about your investment? Because if you consider it to be eating on your person, you might better take your losses and sell at this point. This correction will be different than others if China knocks down Bitcoin exchanges, and Bitcoin will likely be in decline for months on end in that case. At the moment we are still at the relative top of such a decline if it is going to pass.

Make your own decisions though.

[Elwar]

For anyone new that is in Bitcoin to get a lot of dollars take this sound advice:

When people are panicking...sell!

I hear there is big money in bonds or a reverse mortgage (easy money!)

[Meuh6879]

Not bad for a ... new future start.

[El duderino_]

So When are we breaking ATH

Are you for real?

Are you really asking people to tell you this? First of all: do not trust strangers on the internet with respect to such answers. Second of all: no one knows for sure in the firs tplace.
Do you happen to be unsure about your investment? Because if you consider it to be eating on your person, you might better take your losses and sell at this point. This correction will be different than others if China knocks down Bitcoin exchanges, and Bitcoin will likely be in decline for months on end in that case. At the moment we are still at the relative top of such a decline if it is going to pass.

Make your own decisions though.

Man its more like a Joke ..... i now exactly where my investments are and i know for damn sure I'm not selling of my coins
But on the other hand i like to Hear all the wild guesses around here

[ParabellumLite]

More downward pressure.

[Starving_Marvin]

The price is going down way too slow for me to be really worried about it...

[toknormal]

...I still am not going to give a whole hell-of-a lot of weight to how much emphasis you seem to be giving to lines on a chart.

Remember that "lines on a chart" are formed by traders, the most influential of which read charts. So it's a feedback loop which is why they have such an effect.

People who buy on fundamentals to long term invest are not usually daytrading so they only have a momentary effect on the market. Otherwise, the price is driven by the small amount of coin supply that sits on exchanges and gets traded (according to chart interpretations).

That's why they can be a mathematical "inevitability". If there's a significant crossover then traders sell - because they know that every other seasoned daytrader is reading that same signal and acting upon it. Doesn't matter about fundamentals because they get priced in long term.

[El duderino_]

Back @3800 range..... So question lot of you in here selling coins or Just all hodlers??

[mike4001]

I am not really worried but actually annoyed ...

The 5000 USD was within reach and now we are going slowly down and even crashed through the 4000 USD mark I didn't think would happen.

Every time we slowly move up again apparently some whale dumps because we then get one big red candle. This is going on for weeks now.