Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Nightowlace]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrKlAAWz8EI

watching...

"User friendly"
"It's easier to tell people how cool Bitcoin is then to tell them how to get Bitcoin"
"Positive use case scenario's has to increase"
"The ability for people to use it easily"
"It has to be easy for my mom to sign up and use it"

"Entrepreneurs and venture capital dollars are flooding into the market and I think all of those problems are fixable"

[dexX7]

http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/06/important-update-on-bitpay-exchange.html

Effective immediately, BitPay has temporarily stopped using Mt. Gox for determining the exchange rate for our invoices.

The rate calculation that BitPay uses for each invoice is now as follows:

1.  Pull the full Level II market depth, on the bid side, from multiple exchanges.

2.  Merge the market depths into one Consolidated Level II table.

3.  Calculate the blended clearing price for the amount of the invoice, assuming an auto-routing market sell order across all exchanges, with zero commission.

So... who's the market price now? 

But... but... that doesn't necessary imply BitPay isn't using Gox anymore at all, right?

[adamstgBit]

http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/06/important-update-on-bitpay-exchange.html

Effective immediately, BitPay has temporarily stopped using Mt. Gox for determining the exchange rate for our invoices.

The rate calculation that BitPay uses for each invoice is now as follows:

1.  Pull the full Level II market depth, on the bid side, from multiple exchanges.

2.  Merge the market depths into one Consolidated Level II table.

3.  Calculate the blended clearing price for the amount of the invoice, assuming an auto-routing market sell order across all exchanges, with zero commission.

So... who's the market price now? 

But... but... that doesn't necessary imply BitPay isn't using Gox anymore at all, right?

BitPay must already have tons of USD at mtgox waiting for withdraw, i don't think they're going to add more risk...

[wonkytonky]

Ok now I'm really tempted to buy at Bitstamp and sell at MtGox.

i'm doing it . :-)   veryyyy slooooowwwwlyy  hahaah

[Traktion]

price is floating up on light volume, and even small sales are enough for it to get hammered back down. No doubt about it, this is a fake rally designed to let people sell high. Bail while you can! Full disclosure, I'm short from $106.5 
 

Yes and we have the makings of a 3rd straight day of higher prices on progressively lower volume. This happened last week on the 9-11 (no pun) and we wen't down afterwards. It is a tell tale downward formation (if it holds)...

+1

[On Bitstamp prices...]

It's looking like a triple top - three failed attempts to get over the 108 bar, with retraces back to 102 each time. I doubt we will see a forth.

However... the last retrace only touched 102, with a sharp bounce back. This starts looking a bit like a rising triangle, which is bullish. From this perspective, getting over 108 is a smaller leap.

There is a good deal of resistance over 108 though, which would need a lot of buying power to punch through. Therefore, I'm about 85% bearish for the trend for the next few days. I have orders in around 101 and 91 to catch the retrace back to the 18th or profit from another 10% fall beyond this.



P.S. I bought at 99 and sold at 107 since the 18th. I missed the first spike (sell price too high - by 0.5 BTC annoyingly!) and then just missed last night's dip (buy was at 101, and only 102 was reached). You can't win them all though!

Well, that worked out well!  

It all panned out as expected, with both my 101 and 91 buys coming in last night. The latter was a pleasant surprise.

After looking at the state of the Bitstamp order book, I just sold all for 102, taking a decent profit.

I'm not certain where my next buy in point will be, but I'm thinking somewhere between 85 and 95. I have some thinking to do first though.

[crazy_rabbit]

http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/06/important-update-on-bitpay-exchange.html

Effective immediately, BitPay has temporarily stopped using Mt. Gox for determining the exchange rate for our invoices.

The rate calculation that BitPay uses for each invoice is now as follows:

1.  Pull the full Level II market depth, on the bid side, from multiple exchanges.

2.  Merge the market depths into one Consolidated Level II table.

3.  Calculate the blended clearing price for the amount of the invoice, assuming an auto-routing market sell order across all exchanges, with zero commission.

So... who's the market price now? 

But... but... that doesn't necessary imply BitPay isn't using Gox anymore at all, right?

BitPay must already have tons of USD at mtgox waiting for withdraw, i don't think they're going to add more risk...

I suspect users like Bitpay have some sort of special priority agreements with GOX. I doubt that they are having their money access cut off.

[crazy_rabbit]

I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

[ChartBuddy]

[SGExodus]

I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then.  Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.

[darklight]

Pretty happy to be on Bitstamp right now, I think we will see a few more big dumps from people cashing out of gox over the next day or two. My buys at 95 went through, and now I've sold them to do it all again 

[darklight]

I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then.  Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.

The dumper would need balls of steel to bother selling on gox at this point in time, and the other markets don't have the depth for it to be worthwhile

[Frozenlock]

Why? Price are higher than everywhere else.
Seems like a perfect place to sell.

[SGExodus]

I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then.  Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.

The dumper would need balls of steel to bother selling on gox at this point in time, and the other markets don't have the depth for it to be worthwhile

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

[darklight]

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

[nmersulypnem]

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance".  A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.  

[gizmoh]

I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then.  Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.

No dumper will be fool enough to dump until/if withdrawals option are back.Be it manipulator as nobody will panic sell or genuine big seller.

[Its About Sharing]

Wow, this is interesting. Looks like MtGox is really learning how to F themselves (not to mention a lot of their customers).
Looks like Gox is going to lose a lot more market share after this one, rightfully so and good for us.
I'm gonna sit this one out until things clarify themselves. Did I get my shooting star? 

Predictions from this fellas?

[darklight]

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance".  A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.  

And if you had for example 5k BTC to dump, would you really take the 1 in 20 chance that your half a million might go down the toilet?

A manipulator won't do it because by their nature they like to be in control, and in this situation they aren't. Someone in this to invest won't do it because the risk is too high and they don't like pissing money away.

[ChartBuddy]

[dave111223]

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance".  A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.  

And if you had for example 5k BTC to dump, would you really take the 1 in 20 chance that your half a million might go down the toilet?

A manipulator won't do it because by their nature they like to be in control, and in this situation they aren't. Someone in this to invest won't do it because the risk is too high and they don't like pissing money away.

The spread between exchanges put it's more like 1 in 10