Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

Anyone else having issues logging into stamp?  2FA brings me right back to login page.

Same. Can't sell it withdraw.

back up for me.

[1715172465]

1715172465

[1715172465]

1715172465

[1715172465]

1715172465

[RejectedBanana]

Check out that $6000 GDAX daily candle.



Respect.

[milkshock100]

Where are the gentlemen when you need them

[Arriemoller]

But what if what we are seeing is in truth fiat-inflation?
There has so much money been printed and it is out there and yet the inflation is just at 15% since 2008 while the amount of money has increased by about 500%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE?cid=124

Which means everything in dollar should theoretically cost about 5 times as much as it does today. Imagine 15$ for a coffee

That's not really how it works, if the supply of money is met with a growing economy that absorbs the new money you don't get inflation.

[yefi]

I'm wandering...who's going to buy bitcoin at a million and thinks it's a good price?

The laggards prognosticating $10M/BTC?

[HairyMaclairy]

I'm wandering...who's going to buy bitcoin at a million and thinks it's a good price?

The laggards prognosticating $10M/BTC?

You probably don’t want to calculate what 30 days of 20% growth would do to the Bitcoin price because it will make you vomit.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

There needs to be a coinbase competitor, circle could have been raking it in right now!

You can consider bitFlyer they are approved for 42 US states though the main office is in Japan. One downside is you have to fund your account with a wire transfer for fiat.

[European Central Bank]

You can consider bitFlyer they are approved for 42 US states though the main office is in Japan. One downside is you have to fund your account with a wire transfer for fiat.

circle had the credit and debit card thing and wires won't ever replace that. circle was amazingly good to use. they still do a bunch of bitcoin volume but it's nothing to do with retail customers. there were surely a huge amount of costs involved in running it but there are also a huge amount of fees to charge.

[HanvanBitcoin]

Need a new dip please 

[Wekkel]

I'm wandering...who's going to buy bitcoin at a million and thinks it's a good price?

The laggards prognosticating $10M/BTC?

You probably don’t want to calculate what 30 days of 20% growth would do to the Bitcoin price because it will make you vomit.

a factor 59  

But what if what we are seeing is in truth fiat-inflation?
There has so much money been printed and it is out there and yet the inflation is just at 15% since 2008 while the amount of money has increased by about 500%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE?cid=124

Which means everything in dollar should theoretically cost about 5 times as much as it does today. Imagine 15$ for a coffee

That's not really how it works, if the supply of money is met with a growing economy that absorbs the new money you don't get inflation.

Also, most people tend to see rising asset prices as 'wealth' instead of (more correctly) bubbles. Can't steer where all that newly created money goes into. Now it has found a new gem: cryptocurrencies.

The impact of cryptocurrencies

The context of our analysis so far has been restricted to the well-established credit cycle. This consists of a period of credit expansion, facilitated by central banks suppressing interest rates, leading to price inflation, and thereby forcing central banks to raise interest rates until credit stops expanding. Inevitably, when bank credit stops expanding, businesses get into difficulty, the economic climate sours, and bank credit begins to implode. The correlation between changes in bank credit applied to business loans and interest rates managed by the central banks is evident in the second chart in this article.

It should be clear that the current period of credit expansion, being unprecedented in its magnitude, will be followed by a credit crisis potentially worse than the last. Furthermore, as posited above, the rapid expansion of base money, which is the traditional central bank response to a credit crisis, will coincide with a surfeit of deposited dollars in the banking system accumulated since the last crisis. Accordingly, instead of a deflationary event being triggered, the next crisis will increase these deposits even further, and is likely to trigger an inflationary event, once the dust settles. Depositors, who are not finance companies, will almost certainly attempt to reduce their swollen bank accounts, in favour of precious metals, and perhaps tangible assets such as art, land and buildings as well.

We now must consider the impact of a new element, cryptocurrencies. Assuming that central banks do not prohibit commercial banks from processing payments to facilitate cryptocurrency settlements, it is likely the cryptocurrency bubble will not only survive the next credit-induced economic crisis, but be fuelled by it. This being the case, increasing public participation becomes an additional destabilising factor for fiat currencies themselves.

Before the next credit crisis, there could be increasing speculation in cryptocurrencies, providing windfall profits for growing numbers of the general public all round the world. This will have two affects. Fiat money will be diverted from other uses into settling cryptocurrency transactions. This will require additional expansion of bank credit, if not for this direct purpose, to satisfy continuing economic activities that benefit indirectly from the bubble’s wealth creation. And secondly, the decline in preference for fiat money in favour of holding cryptocurrencies is could trigger a wider decline in the purchasing power of state-issued money.

It is perhaps time to consolidate our thoughts so far, and summarise the danger to the dollar. Unlike the last credit-induced crisis, which triggered a flight into the dollar, the dynamics building for the next crisis are wholly different, even though it will happen for the same underlying reasons. This time, the world is flooded with dollars, both in the form of investment money and bank deposits.

The Fed’s solution to a credit-induced crisis is always to inject more money into the system. But there is already too much money in circulation, illustrated by the above-trend increase in FMQ since August 2008. Foreign ownership of dollars in portfolios also increased from $9.641 trillion in 2009 to $17.139 trillion in 2016 (according to TIC data from the US Treasury), the unwinding of which will undoubtedly put pressure on the dollar’s exchange rate, in addition to other negative trade-related factors. Furthermore, fiat currency in the banks and at the Fed is now $6.4 trillion above its long-term sustainable growth rate.

There is therefore, already a recipe for a substantial fall in the dollar, adversely affecting all other fiat currencies linked to it. This problem is compounded by the lack of headroom to raise interest rates without aggravating the overall debt situation. The addition of cryptocurrencies as an alternative to holding fiat cash, if the cryptocurrency bubble is still extant at the time of the next credit crisis, can be expected to offer the public an alternative to holding fiat currencies deposits in the banks. This is all bad news for the dollar.

source: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/monetary-update-for-the-dollar

[flynn]

a factor 59  

Errrr ... 1.2 ^30 = 237.37

[Wekkel]

a factor 59  

Errrr ... 1.2 ^30 = 237.37

A slight miscalculation from my side 

[wumBowo]

when this uptrend end?
i actually want to invest some of BTC on this uptrend phase since 2 days ago, but things that i keep worrying is when the dip come while it's being always an uptrend?
because of that i keep losing chance to bought some BTC

[jojo69]

You probably don’t want to calculate what 30 days of 20% growth would do to the Bitcoin price because it will make you vomit.

NASA logo barf bag ready

[AlexGR]

We will need some time until we break this new GDAX ATH (19.7k)

There was a chart a week ago, or more, which showed 22k on December - based on long term extrapolations. It got attention because it predicted november price but december seemed "far fetched" for most at the time. Now it seems pretty doable.

[Dabs]

No, bitcoin is not "a store of value",

Bitcoin is not money.

Would you say that anyone who says that Bitcoin is a Store of Value, a Unit of Account, and/or Medium of Exchange is wrong then?

[fluidjax]

You probably don’t want to calculate what 30 days of 20% growth would do to the Bitcoin price because it will make you vomit.

NASA logo barf bag ready

I'm chucking...$3,614,054

[SecondLeoTheSecond]

I'm wandering...who's going to buy bitcoin at a million and thinks it's a good price?

The laggards prognosticating $10M/BTC?

You probably don’t want to calculate what 30 days of 20% growth would do to the Bitcoin price because it will make you vomit.

a factor 59  

But what if what we are seeing is in truth fiat-inflation?
There has so much money been printed and it is out there and yet the inflation is just at 15% since 2008 while the amount of money has increased by about 500%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE?cid=124

Which means everything in dollar should theoretically cost about 5 times as much as it does today. Imagine 15$ for a coffee

That's not really how it works, if the supply of money is met with a growing economy that absorbs the new money you don't get inflation.

Also, most people tend to see rising asset prices as 'wealth' instead of (more correctly) bubbles. Can't steer where all that newly created money goes into. Now it has found a new gem: cryptocurrencies.

The impact of cryptocurrencies

The context of our analysis so far has been restricted to the well-established credit cycle. This consists of a period of credit expansion, facilitated by central banks suppressing interest rates, leading to price inflation, and thereby forcing central banks to raise interest rates until credit stops expanding. Inevitably, when bank credit stops expanding, businesses get into difficulty, the economic climate sours, and bank credit begins to implode. The correlation between changes in bank credit applied to business loans and interest rates managed by the central banks is evident in the second chart in this article.

It should be clear that the current period of credit expansion, being unprecedented in its magnitude, will be followed by a credit crisis potentially worse than the last. Furthermore, as posited above, the rapid expansion of base money, which is the traditional central bank response to a credit crisis, will coincide with a surfeit of deposited dollars in the banking system accumulated since the last crisis. Accordingly, instead of a deflationary event being triggered, the next crisis will increase these deposits even further, and is likely to trigger an inflationary event, once the dust settles. Depositors, who are not finance companies, will almost certainly attempt to reduce their swollen bank accounts, in favour of precious metals, and perhaps tangible assets such as art, land and buildings as well.

We now must consider the impact of a new element, cryptocurrencies. Assuming that central banks do not prohibit commercial banks from processing payments to facilitate cryptocurrency settlements, it is likely the cryptocurrency bubble will not only survive the next credit-induced economic crisis, but be fuelled by it. This being the case, increasing public participation becomes an additional destabilising factor for fiat currencies themselves.

Before the next credit crisis, there could be increasing speculation in cryptocurrencies, providing windfall profits for growing numbers of the general public all round the world. This will have two affects. Fiat money will be diverted from other uses into settling cryptocurrency transactions. This will require additional expansion of bank credit, if not for this direct purpose, to satisfy continuing economic activities that benefit indirectly from the bubble’s wealth creation. And secondly, the decline in preference for fiat money in favour of holding cryptocurrencies is could trigger a wider decline in the purchasing power of state-issued money.

It is perhaps time to consolidate our thoughts so far, and summarise the danger to the dollar. Unlike the last credit-induced crisis, which triggered a flight into the dollar, the dynamics building for the next crisis are wholly different, even though it will happen for the same underlying reasons. This time, the world is flooded with dollars, both in the form of investment money and bank deposits.

The Fed’s solution to a credit-induced crisis is always to inject more money into the system. But there is already too much money in circulation, illustrated by the above-trend increase in FMQ since August 2008. Foreign ownership of dollars in portfolios also increased from $9.641 trillion in 2009 to $17.139 trillion in 2016 (according to TIC data from the US Treasury), the unwinding of which will undoubtedly put pressure on the dollar’s exchange rate, in addition to other negative trade-related factors. Furthermore, fiat currency in the banks and at the Fed is now $6.4 trillion above its long-term sustainable growth rate.

There is therefore, already a recipe for a substantial fall in the dollar, adversely affecting all other fiat currencies linked to it. This problem is compounded by the lack of headroom to raise interest rates without aggravating the overall debt situation. The addition of cryptocurrencies as an alternative to holding fiat cash, if the cryptocurrency bubble is still extant at the time of the next credit crisis, can be expected to offer the public an alternative to holding fiat currencies deposits in the banks. This is all bad news for the dollar.

source: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/monetary-update-for-the-dollar

D'accord with that. Should 2008 repeat itself, cryptos will shoot again. There are surely a lot of people who want their money someplace they believe will rise. Money will flee galores.

[realsteelboy]

I promised myself I would buy myself a present at 10k

So I bought this....it arrived yesterday



Since I've been wearing it we've been moving at more than 2k a day. It's not coming off.  

[HairyMaclairy]

95% of lottery winners have nothing to show for it after 10 years.  I’m sure the hodlers are wiser than that but please plan long term guys.  Map out how you will have money to 105.

when this uptrend end?
i actually want to invest some of BTC on this uptrend phase since 2 days ago, but things that i keep worrying is when the dip come while it's being always an uptrend?
because of that i keep losing chance to bought some BTC

I’ve been waiting for an 80% dip since we passed $1263.  Haven’t had much luck so far.