Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

No, bitcoin is not "a store of value",

Bitcoin is not money.

Would you say that anyone who says that Bitcoin is a Store of Value, a Unit of Account, and/or Medium of Exchange is wrong then?

[fluidjax]

You probably don’t want to calculate what 30 days of 20% growth would do to the Bitcoin price because it will make you vomit.

NASA logo barf bag ready

I'm chucking...$3,614,054

[SecondLeoTheSecond]

I'm wandering...who's going to buy bitcoin at a million and thinks it's a good price?

The laggards prognosticating $10M/BTC?

You probably don’t want to calculate what 30 days of 20% growth would do to the Bitcoin price because it will make you vomit.

a factor 59  

But what if what we are seeing is in truth fiat-inflation?
There has so much money been printed and it is out there and yet the inflation is just at 15% since 2008 while the amount of money has increased by about 500%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE?cid=124

Which means everything in dollar should theoretically cost about 5 times as much as it does today. Imagine 15$ for a coffee

That's not really how it works, if the supply of money is met with a growing economy that absorbs the new money you don't get inflation.

Also, most people tend to see rising asset prices as 'wealth' instead of (more correctly) bubbles. Can't steer where all that newly created money goes into. Now it has found a new gem: cryptocurrencies.

The impact of cryptocurrencies

The context of our analysis so far has been restricted to the well-established credit cycle. This consists of a period of credit expansion, facilitated by central banks suppressing interest rates, leading to price inflation, and thereby forcing central banks to raise interest rates until credit stops expanding. Inevitably, when bank credit stops expanding, businesses get into difficulty, the economic climate sours, and bank credit begins to implode. The correlation between changes in bank credit applied to business loans and interest rates managed by the central banks is evident in the second chart in this article.

It should be clear that the current period of credit expansion, being unprecedented in its magnitude, will be followed by a credit crisis potentially worse than the last. Furthermore, as posited above, the rapid expansion of base money, which is the traditional central bank response to a credit crisis, will coincide with a surfeit of deposited dollars in the banking system accumulated since the last crisis. Accordingly, instead of a deflationary event being triggered, the next crisis will increase these deposits even further, and is likely to trigger an inflationary event, once the dust settles. Depositors, who are not finance companies, will almost certainly attempt to reduce their swollen bank accounts, in favour of precious metals, and perhaps tangible assets such as art, land and buildings as well.

We now must consider the impact of a new element, cryptocurrencies. Assuming that central banks do not prohibit commercial banks from processing payments to facilitate cryptocurrency settlements, it is likely the cryptocurrency bubble will not only survive the next credit-induced economic crisis, but be fuelled by it. This being the case, increasing public participation becomes an additional destabilising factor for fiat currencies themselves.

Before the next credit crisis, there could be increasing speculation in cryptocurrencies, providing windfall profits for growing numbers of the general public all round the world. This will have two affects. Fiat money will be diverted from other uses into settling cryptocurrency transactions. This will require additional expansion of bank credit, if not for this direct purpose, to satisfy continuing economic activities that benefit indirectly from the bubble’s wealth creation. And secondly, the decline in preference for fiat money in favour of holding cryptocurrencies is could trigger a wider decline in the purchasing power of state-issued money.

It is perhaps time to consolidate our thoughts so far, and summarise the danger to the dollar. Unlike the last credit-induced crisis, which triggered a flight into the dollar, the dynamics building for the next crisis are wholly different, even though it will happen for the same underlying reasons. This time, the world is flooded with dollars, both in the form of investment money and bank deposits.

The Fed’s solution to a credit-induced crisis is always to inject more money into the system. But there is already too much money in circulation, illustrated by the above-trend increase in FMQ since August 2008. Foreign ownership of dollars in portfolios also increased from $9.641 trillion in 2009 to $17.139 trillion in 2016 (according to TIC data from the US Treasury), the unwinding of which will undoubtedly put pressure on the dollar’s exchange rate, in addition to other negative trade-related factors. Furthermore, fiat currency in the banks and at the Fed is now $6.4 trillion above its long-term sustainable growth rate.

There is therefore, already a recipe for a substantial fall in the dollar, adversely affecting all other fiat currencies linked to it. This problem is compounded by the lack of headroom to raise interest rates without aggravating the overall debt situation. The addition of cryptocurrencies as an alternative to holding fiat cash, if the cryptocurrency bubble is still extant at the time of the next credit crisis, can be expected to offer the public an alternative to holding fiat currencies deposits in the banks. This is all bad news for the dollar.

source: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/monetary-update-for-the-dollar

D'accord with that. Should 2008 repeat itself, cryptos will shoot again. There are surely a lot of people who want their money someplace they believe will rise. Money will flee galores.

[realsteelboy]

I promised myself I would buy myself a present at 10k

So I bought this....it arrived yesterday



Since I've been wearing it we've been moving at more than 2k a day. It's not coming off.  

[HairyMaclairy]

95% of lottery winners have nothing to show for it after 10 years.  I’m sure the hodlers are wiser than that but please plan long term guys.  Map out how you will have money to 105.

when this uptrend end?
i actually want to invest some of BTC on this uptrend phase since 2 days ago, but things that i keep worrying is when the dip come while it's being always an uptrend?
because of that i keep losing chance to bought some BTC

I’ve been waiting for an 80% dip since we passed $1263.  Haven’t had much luck so far.

[Torque]

But what if what we are seeing is in truth fiat-inflation?
There has so much money been printed and it is out there and yet the inflation is just at 15% since 2008 while the amount of money has increased by about 500%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE?cid=124

Which means everything in dollar should theoretically cost about 5 times as much as it does today. Imagine 15$ for a coffee

A complete lie told by the Fed. How do I know? I buy things:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2401800.msg24652194#msg24652194
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2401800.msg25792784#msg25792784

[SecondLeoTheSecond]

But what if what we are seeing is in truth fiat-inflation?
There has so much money been printed and it is out there and yet the inflation is just at 15% since 2008 while the amount of money has increased by about 500%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE?cid=124

Which means everything in dollar should theoretically cost about 5 times as much as it does today. Imagine 15$ for a coffee

A complete lie told by the Fed. How do I know? I buy things:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2401800.msg24652194#msg24652194
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2401800.msg25792784#msg25792784

I don't live in the US so I have to rely on statistics. Might well be true what you are saying. I just took some inflation rate provided online.
Though the numbers would still not match the increase in 500%. I don't know details about the whole market though, just the simple numbers I got from looking for five minutes.

[Torque]

I don't live in the US so I have to rely on statistics. Might well be true what you are saying. I just took some inflation rate provided online.
Though the numbers would still not match the increase in 500%. I don't know details about the whole market though, just the simple numbers I got from looking for five minutes.

Oh yeah, we've been living with high inflation rates here in the U.S., but they've managed to do it so subtly since the financial crisis that barely anyone has noticed. It's been mostly in the things that people rely on every day or every month (with the exception of gasoline and clothing). And keeping wages flat over a decade is a form of inflation in and of itself. A double whammy that has cut people's purchasing power by at least 30-40%. Couple that with high personal debt, and people feel trapped. All their money is going to pay debts, they have no savings, and no longer have discretionary spending to buy things. The U.S. GDP is 70% consumption!

And I think it's going to get worse in the coming decade.

[HairyMaclairy]

What gets me is we all know automation is coming, but so few people put any effort at all into figuring out how it works and how they could improve their jobs and wages with it.

[criptix]

its kind of totaly funny that i was called a noob 4 years ago for start buying btc.


should i tell these people about bitcoin again?  

[vroom]

What gets me is we all know automation is coming, but so few people put any effort at all into figuring out how it works and how they could improve their jobs and wages with it.

many people will lose their jobs because of automation and that will be a big problem.

[HanvanBitcoin]

What gets me is we all know automation is coming, but so few people put any effort at all into figuring out how it works and how they could improve their jobs and wages with it.

many people will lose their jobs because of automation and that will be a big problem.

Not entirely true. Automation also creates loads of jobs. It requires technical innovation, designers, programmers, builders ect.. Why would we 'humans' perform hard labor if we can program and build machines to do it for us? We need to keep evolving  

I'd rather have more machines do labor for us so others can focus on taking care of our elder people or other stuff that matters more.

[jojo69]

What gets me is we all know automation is coming, but so few people put any effort at all into figuring out how it works and how they could improve their jobs and wages with it.

many people will lose their jobs because of automation and that will be a big problem.

The elites have a plan for that...unfortunately, the plan is a big problem in it's own right.

[Nikolaj06]

What gets me is we all know automation is coming, but so few people put any effort at all into figuring out how it works and how they could improve their jobs and wages with it.

Not everyone has the available resources to prepare for the coming age of automation. Whether it's free time, money for classes or even any available classes. You can't blame blame people for not getting ready, when it's already hard enough for the majority of the new generation to find a proper paying job.

[vroom]

What gets me is we all know automation is coming, but so few people put any effort at all into figuring out how it works and how they could improve their jobs and wages with it.

many people will lose their jobs because of automation and that will be a big problem.

Not entirely true. Automation also creates loads of jobs. It requires technical innovation, designers, programmers, builders ect.. Why would we 'humans' perform hard labor if we can program and build machines to do it for us? We need to keep evolving  

I'd rather have more machines do labor for us so others can focus on taking care of our elder people or other stuff that matters more.

the unskilled/uneducated people will lose their jobs first. they can not become designers, programmers and builders.

[realr0ach]

and right now is best used as a digital store of value

No, bitcoin is not "a store of value", no more than dogecoin or airline miles are a "store of value".  At the end of the day, the only type of endgame anyone wants from a monetary instrument is to receive a physical good or service for it.  This is why commodity currencies are the only real form of money, because they are not IOUs, and thus have no counterparty risk.  Just like fiat paper, bitcoin is nothing more than a debt instrument or IOU because it cannot actually be used for anything.  You are hoping to trick someone into giving you something of use for your something of no use.  One could even argue bitcoin is worse than fiat since even if the value of paper money goes to zero, you can at least set it on fire to keep yourself warm.

The bitcoin forum is plagued with people who have no understanding of money, and scammers who just flat out lie about what the difference in money and currency is.  Bitcoin is not money.  Although not debt issued like USD, it's just another debt instrument currency.

Okay, everything you said is correct (except for that image) but you're moving the goalposts here by re-defining what "money" means. It is true that gold and silver have intrinsic value but it's also true that collective delusion creates "money". In your opinion it would be more accurately called an IOU but most people call it money because money is usually defined as the most efficient way to trade things without bartering. You certainly can't pay for a hamburger with silver but you might be able to buy lunch with Bitcoin or another crypto-currency soon. I already pay for my servers using Bitcoin.

If it's not possible to buy a hamburger with silver, I wonder how people did exactly that for oh...thousands of years.

Maybe you're right and it would be better in a hypothetical universe if we used silver or gold as a transactional unit. How would online purchases work in that case? Bitcoin is the only way to trade value using a decentralized network.

You're making a false comparison.  It's not possible to create a decentralized cryptocurrency, so bitcoin was never an alternative to metals in the first place.  Cryptocurrency either starts completely centralized from day one in the case of most proof of stake coins, or they just centralize more by the day in the case of proof of work.  Anyone who has been around in bitcoin for years can see that.  In the past people claimed "oh, commodification of ASICs will solve everything!", but that turned out to be completely wrong.

Long ago, people always mentioned the talking point concerning miners:  "Why would anyone sell a money printing machine?".  The answer is, they wouldn't.  Selling shovels in California to gold miners is not a money printing machine; they are printing with their arms, not the shovel.  A bitcoin miner you just plug in.  There is no incentive for commodification of ASICs to exist.  The monopolization of ASIC production will generally always be a weapon used against the general public in some form or another.  

The only reason an ASIC monopoly man would want to sell you an ASIC for a reasonable price is if he cornered the bitcoin market first and wants you to help him create a better buffer for his pump and dump.  But of course, once he starts to sell to realize some gains on his pump and dump, you're back to square one again of ASICs always being used as a weapon and holding the bag with an unprofitable ASIC.

[realsteelboy]

Has anyone had issues logging into blockchain?

[HanvanBitcoin]

What gets me is we all know automation is coming, but so few people put any effort at all into figuring out how it works and how they could improve their jobs and wages with it.

many people will lose their jobs because of automation and that will be a big problem.

Not entirely true. Automation also creates loads of jobs. It requires technical innovation, designers, programmers, builders ect.. Why would we 'humans' perform hard labor if we can program and build machines to do it for us? We need to keep evolving  

I'd rather have more machines do labor for us so others can focus on taking care of our elder people or other stuff that matters more.

the unskilled/uneducated people will lose their jobs first. they can not become designers, programmers and builders.

Well imagine if you where unskilled/uneducated but wearing a pair of googleglasses that would tell you exactly step by step how to operate a verry complex machine? Everything is possible with technology......

Without automation our food, clothes ect. would all become more and more expensive. We woudn't even be able to feed everyon on this world without it actually..... Its a MUST if we want to survive with this many people on this planet.

[ErisDiscordia]

What gets me is we all know automation is coming, but so few people put any effort at all into figuring out how it works and how they could improve their jobs and wages with it.

The point of automation is not to improve your job or create a new one. It is to make your job obsolete. This is only a problem, because in the current system one has to have a job in order to get money and survive (unless you already are rich and can let your money work for you). In any sane system we would cheer unemployment.

[Meuh6879]

Summary of all exchanges ... overheaded by news users.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-07/bitcoin-blasts-through-15000

bonus :

Paul – who earlier this year called for the U.S. government to "stay out" of bitcoin – put the question to his more than 650,000 followers, asking if they would take $10,000 in the form of bitcoin, dollars, gold or 10-year U.S. Treasury Bonds.

The result thus far – one hour remains in the poll at press time – indicate that of the more than 70,000 responses, 54 percent expressed support for bitcoin.