Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA2]

When I joined, the early adopters were those in 2010 who had already made 1000 times gains. The early adopter status is based on where they are compared to the present, not where they are compared to the future. However, even if you were to make it about the future, that means there would have to be another 1000 times gains from here on into the future for noobs to be early adopters. That would put the target price at $15,000,000, with a market cap of $300 trillion equal to 5 times all of the world's monetary instruments.

You need to revise your definition of a bear. A bear is not someone who predicts anything less than the moon and stars in a jiffy.

[HairyMaclairy]

At $300 trillion, the market cap would be equal to 8% of the current market cap of financial instruments.  Bitcoin is a financial instrument. 

But no one is claiming you need 1,000x return to be an early adopter.  Returns and adoption phase do not have to be correlated. 

[TERA2]

I dont know where you get the figure that the worlds monetary instruments sums 3.75 quadrillion. The figure I got was 60T. However, would bitcoin even be equal to whatever this number is? I ask because this number is based on the fractional reserve banking system where debt is money and there 10 different copies representing the same money. Like a loan on a future on a stock representing mortages, etc..i and it was hoped the bitcoin would get rid of this.

[Dabs]

I consider those in before June 2011 to be innovators and anyone from then until very recently to be early adopters.

What's with that particular month / year? June 2011?

This forum used to have smart people on it.  Now all I see are people regurgitating Andreas Antonopolous propaganda ...

This is one reason long targeting was likely left in instead of fast targeting, just a half ass attempt at a workaround, but it doesn't really solve anything, just makes a chain freeze more likely.

Are you saying Andreas Antonopolous is wrong? Are you also saying the core devs, including Satoshi was mistaken in implementing long targeting in the client software? Are all these fast block fast adjusting coins any better?

[bitserve]

When I joined, the early adopters were those in 2010 who had already made 1000 times gains. The early adopter status is based on where they are compared to the present, not where they are compared to the future. However, even if you were to make it about the future, that means there would have to be another 1000 times gains from here on into the future for noobs to be early adopters. That would put the target price at $15,000,000, with a market cap of $300 trillion equal to 5 times all of the world's monetary instruments.

You need to revise your definition of a bear. A bear is not someone who predicts anything less than the moon and stars in a jiffy.

I think you are using wrong the definition of an early adopter. It doesn't even have anything to do with having invested nor having any stratospheric returns. It just your place in the adoption curve of an specific technology.

Would you consider Andreas Antonopolous an early adopter? I would say it is for sure, but it doesn't fit your gains criteria. Well no, in fact he was not an early adopter, but an innovator.

Anyone using Bitcoin from 2013 is for sure an early adopter. I would add 2014, 2015, 2016 too, as I don't think the adoption level increased significantly -maybe even dropped-. Up to 2012 I would call them innovators. 2017 is debatable, but most probably early adopters too.

That said, it is extremely hard for me to imagine another 1000x rise IN PRICE. Even a 100x seems doubtful. But I can see an increase of ADOPTION of 100x and 1000x easily some time in the future even if the price stabilizes.

P.S.: And anyone in the early 10% of the adoption timeline is without doubt an early adopter (or an innovator for the first 1-3%).

[HairyMaclairy]

Looks like 4 quadrillion is the high estimate.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/325982-derivatives-toxic-instrument-review/

Personally I need far far less than that to achieve my goals. 

[bitserve]

This forum used to have smart people on it.  Now all I see are people regurgitating Andreas Antonopolous propaganda ...

This is one reason long targeting was likely left in instead of fast targeting, just a half ass attempt at a workaround, but it doesn't really solve anything, just makes a chain freeze more likely.

Are you saying Andreas Antonopolous is wrong? Are you also saying the core devs, including Satoshi was mistaken in implementing long targeting in the client software? Are all these fast block fast adjusting coins any better?

In fact the long time for dificulty retarget is mostly needed as a safeguard against network splits (either intentional or unintentional).

[Dabs]

Up to 2012 I would call them innovators.

That said, it is extremely hard for me to imagine another 1000x rise IN PRICE. Even a 100x seems doubtful. But I can see an increase of ADOPTION of 100x and 1000x easily some time in the future even if the price stabilizes.

I bought my first bitcoin in 2012. I don't have much today, because like some others, I spent most of it. In between then and now, I earned and spent. What does that make me?

100x seems to me to still be possible but over a longer time frame, maybe another 10 years, which isn't so bad. It might even be sooner than that according to several other people.

If you have 10 bitcoins today, and just hodl it at least 10 years, you might be looking at a million USD each. Not extremely wealthy, but considerably more comfortable than today. The trick is to not touch it. Which is difficult for some of us here who have no other source of income.

I haven't been employed for about 3 or 4 years now.

[RejectedBanana]

Can you explain how "just adoption" justifies a price increase of 2000% within a few months? Adoption does not just suddenly jump from horizontal to straight lines and and happen all at once in a 2000% spike. It is more like a smooth logarithmic curve of a few percent per day. So if it jumps too much that means it is overbought by traders.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/04/the-100-year-march-of-technology-in-1-graph/255573/

[TERA2]

That all looks like a slow controlled rise over 15 to 30 years to me. Not 2 months. Also there is a single up phase and not a staircase.

[bitserve]

Up to 2012 I would call them innovators.

That said, it is extremely hard for me to imagine another 1000x rise IN PRICE. Even a 100x seems doubtful. But I can see an increase of ADOPTION of 100x and 1000x easily some time in the future even if the price stabilizes.

I bought my first bitcoin in 2012. I don't have much today, because like some others, I spent most of it. In between then and now, I earned and spent. What does that make me?

100x seems to me to still be possible but over a longer time frame, maybe another 10 years, which isn't so bad. It might even be sooner than that according to several other people.

If you have 10 bitcoins today, and just hodl it at least 10 years, you might be looking at a million USD each. Not extremely wealthy, but considerably more comfortable than today. The trick is to not touch it. Which is difficult for some of us here who have no other source of income.

I haven't been employed for about 3 or 4 years now.

The crazy thing is that unless the (price) increasing rate we have had in 2017 doesn't drop soon.... someone with 10BTC would by millionaire in less than one year from now.... by end of next summer to be more precise.

Not saying that is gonna happen though. What do I know... My target was less than this price for the next halving. Happy times

And, you started using Bitcoin in 2012 so I would consider you an innovator, no matter how rich or not you are now.

[pfrtlpfmpf]

I haven´t done much important in my life. But i have this forum getting going again. Thanks guys, keep it up  

[bitserve]

On other news... The chikun has arisen

[TERA2]

On other news... The chikun has arisen

Did it open on gox?

[RejectedBanana]

When I joined, the early adopters were those in 2010 who had already made 1000 times gains. The early adopter status is based on where they are compared to the present, not where they are compared to the future. However, even if you were to make it about the future, that means there would have to be another 1000 times gains from here on into the future for noobs to be early adopters. That would put the target price at $15,000,000, with a market cap of $300 trillion equal to 5 times all of the world's monetary instruments.

You need to revise your definition of a bear. A bear is not someone who predicts anything less than the moon and stars in a jiffy.

Those 2010 early adopters accepted much more risk than the 2013 adopters and beyond.  I doubt very many of them sunk much more than a few hundred or a few grand into it before they made 1000x gains, unless they were already wealthy to begin with, or mining and forced to sell to break even. Order books couldn't hardly support large fiat influxes either.

Whereas from 2013 on, plunking down 10 grand or even a cool $100,000 or a few million like our favorite twins required much less risk albeit less return to achieve a much more pronounced effect. 1000 times gains on $1000 is only $1MM.  100 times gains on 100 thousand? Now we're talkin'.

[jojo69]

Where are these posts with that fkng cool woman, you know which one i mean. she´s soo hot.

FRIDA FRIDA FRIDA FRIDA

What does "FRIDA" mean ? It was your intention, having me to ask ?

By "fking cool woman" I assume you meant Salma Hayek.

Her best known role in the US is her 2002 portrayal of Mexican impressionist painter Frida Kahlo.

[RejectedBanana]

That all looks like a slow controlled rise over 15 to 30 years to me. Not 2 months. Also there is a single up phase and not a staircase.

Are you confusing the staircase price with percent adoption?

[TERA2]

What Im saying to begin with is that the momentary spot price does not represent adoption. When the price rises 2000% in two months, that doesnt mean that adoption increased 2000% in two months. It is hyperextended by traders beyond a slower rising curve that actually represents adoption.

[404Revolution]

The trick is to not touch it. Which is difficult for some of us here.

Boy Howdy

[HairyMaclairy]

You know what would make my day?  Litecoin overtaking Bcash.

Go Litecoin go.