Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Coinseeker]

I have to say I sadly agree with some of your points regarding value, purchasing ability and market penetration. All these issues are showing a big fail in Bitcoin development over the last year, which I've been preaching about. The unregulated free for all anti-fiat currency of the future has merely become a financial platform for big fiat fishes. Most of the development has shifted towards that focus, ignoring usability and every day commerce.

I think, however, you're wrong in your conclusion.  Even if what you say happens and 99% of the people leave when/if we go below 50, that's REBIRTH, not death. The people left will then be in charge of steering the project back on track, hopefully in the right direction this time, but it may even take several tries of this whole process. If Bitcoin goes into a slumber, there's a reason for it, and it needs to be corrected. The fundamental values of the original concept will always be valid and valuable, up until the day there is a stronger crypto-currency or alt-money to compete with fiat.

And that's the bottom line, the demand for Bitcoin (outside of speculation), is in reality the demand for an (unregulated) alternative for gov' controlled fiat. As long as there is no bigger player in this segment, Bitcoin cannot die.

You know, this is a totally valid view point.  Some sources suggest that literally 100's of millions of people around the globe have at least heard of Bitcoin.  Maybe the $100+ prices were just to high for the masses to run to, but at $20 or $30, maybe that's a point where more people would jump on board.  I don't claim to have a crystal ball.  It is all speculation.  But I do try to evaluate my investment as I would in any other business and as it stands now, the long term viability of Bitcoin is shaky iMO, given it's lack of market penetration and it's pure speculative nature.

My words are not an attack on crypto or even Bitcoin.  It's just an individual perspective from a small investor.  I have continued to call out many of the short comings of Bitcoin for quite awhile now, and those have not changed.  In fact, the more time that passes and the BTC community is still begging for Dropbox or some other non-major company to accept Bitcoins, while the publicly traded companies continue to snub Bitcoin, the less I believe in the viability of Bitcoin.  Again, just my perspective and that's part of how I make my trading decisions.  No one should take that personal.  This is just business.

[nmersulypnem]

As someone who's pulled out, I just gotta say that it was a pain in the ass to actually get my money back to my bank.  Buy BTC to transfer coins to CampBx, then sell and transfer cash back to my dwolla.  All this while paying commissions, crappy spreads, sluggish UIs, and transfer delays.  When the capitulation happens, that exit channel is going to be like the golden gate bridge during a zombie apocalypse: People will be crushing each other to get out, and in my opinion, a number of services are going to go bankrupt in the process.  It's not enough to have your money in fiat in MtGox - get it bank in your bank or kiss it all goodbye.

[rezurect]

It's not enough to have your money in fiat in MtGox - get it bank in your bank or kiss it all goodbye.

Goxs doesn't need dead USD or BTC in a/c's to survive do they, they live of the trading commissions. IF USD in Gox can't be transferred, well have to wait till the next hype cycle, 2014 i guess.

[molecular]

If 50 is broken then we go through the process that is called capitulation. People like you will think Bitcoin is dead and abandon all hope. But we will reach a bottom eventually, even though many here will keep saying that we haven't hit bottom yet and that it will get worse and worse. When price hit $2 in 2011 people still kept shouting that price would go to $1 and below, even by well respected and knowledgeable forum members. But it didn't, and the ones who bought throughout all the panic made huge amounts of profit in the end. Now I'm not saying that 50 will be broken and that we go through this entire process again, but there is a reasonable chance it will and it will not be the end of Bitcoin.

this.

And the fact that even a stubborn perma-bull like me recognizes the possibility of another massive drop down to 50 or even below might be seen as an indication that the bottom is in soon.

It's usually the bottom when I stupidly sell coins in panic. We're not quite there yet, but I'm starting to not feel so well any more and I'll probably panic below 50 (hopefully I'll be far from a computer at that point).

On the other hand I'm starting to feel greed boil up that wants to throw more fiat at the thing before the train leaves again...

Interesting times in any case.

[QuestionAuthority]

No matter what I'm buyin back in at $2. I'm not waiting for $1.

[molecular]

No matter what I'm buyin back in at $2. I'm not waiting for $1.

now that's a plan

[solex]

Is the market doing something new?

It seems to be crabbing sideways at $68. Just as the recent peak at $136 was a flat-top with no volume spike. Maybe it is having a flat-bottom at this current level.

[gizmoh]

If 50 is broken then we go through the process that is called capitulation. People like you will think Bitcoin is dead and abandon all hope. But we will reach a bottom eventually, even though many here will keep saying that we haven't hit bottom yet and that it will get worse and worse. When price hit $2 in 2011 people still kept shouting that price would go to $1 and below, even by well respected and knowledgeable forum members. But it didn't, and the ones who bought throughout all the panic made huge amounts of profit in the end. Now I'm not saying that 50 will be broken and that we go through this entire process again, but there is a reasonable chance it will and it will not be the end of Bitcoin.

this.

And the fact that even a stubborn perma-bull like me recognizes the possibility of another massive drop down to 50 or even below might be seen as an indication that the bottom is in soon.

It's usually the bottom when I stupidly sell coins in panic. We're not quite there yet, but I'm starting to not feel so well any more and I'll probably panic below 50 (hopefully I'll be far from a computer at that point).

On the other hand I'm starting to feel greed boil up that wants to throw more fiat at the thing before the train leaves again...

Interesting times in any case.

Bulls hoping the train to leave again automatically after touching the 50's . Sure with the help of whales price can prop 10 to 30 points up, giving a sentiment of rally again..But with no advancement in the Bitcoin economy, less and less influx of USD and constant supply of coins from asic companies/miners,the underlying mid term trend looks downwards barring any excellent news (like new EU bankrupt country).
So I believe its going for a long slide down well below 50's.

I too have a secret plan in place for a more 'reasonable' price of $5 a coin. A cataclysmic event might arise that would offer such possibility..

[Dalib]

Is the market doing something new?
It seems to be crabbing sideways at $68. Just as the recent peak at $136 was a flat-top with no volume spike. Maybe it is having a flat-bottom at this current level.

I think everything looks that we will test the latest lows soon.
But at such a low volume, can any greater Bid or dump change a lot.

[wachtwoord]

If 50 is broken then we go through the process that is called capitulation. People like you will think Bitcoin is dead and abandon all hope. But we will reach a bottom eventually, even though many here will keep saying that we haven't hit bottom yet and that it will get worse and worse. When price hit $2 in 2011 people still kept shouting that price would go to $1 and below, even by well respected and knowledgeable forum members. But it didn't, and the ones who bought throughout all the panic made huge amounts of profit in the end. Now I'm not saying that 50 will be broken and that we go through this entire process again, but there is a reasonable chance it will and it will not be the end of Bitcoin.

this.

And the fact that even a stubborn perma-bull like me recognizes the possibility of another massive drop down to 50 or even below might be seen as an indication that the bottom is in soon.

It's usually the bottom when I stupidly sell coins in panic. We're not quite there yet, but I'm starting to not feel so well any more and I'll probably panic below 50 (hopefully I'll be far from a computer at that point).

On the other hand I'm starting to feel greed boil up that wants to throw more fiat at the thing before the train leaves again...

Interesting times in any case.

Put them in a cold wallet. Make a paper backup. Delete the wallet. Put the paper backup in a spot you cannot very conveniently reach (bank vault). Only add to the wallet at current depressed prices.

Minus the putting the backup out of reach this is what I did. I don't need to put it away because I won't be temped.

[ChartBuddy]

[N12]

I can feel a Winkledump coming.

[molecular]

Put them in a cold wallet. Make a paper backup. Delete the wallet. Put the paper backup in a spot you cannot very conveniently reach (bank vault). Only add to the wallet at current depressed prices.

This is good advice and I already put 80% of my coins into very cold storage out of my immediate reach early 2012 to protect them from my emotions. It has worked.

I could've multiplied my bitcoin holdings by using these 80% in 2011 and again in 2013 easily by going short at the right moment and long again at the right moment. I could've also lost a substantial portion of that by trading on emotion or even rationally.

Since I believe in the future of bitcoin I'm not sad I held on to my precious little stash. If bitcoin becomes a success on a large scale, it'll be enough anyways. If Bitcoin fails, even 100 times more coins wont do me any good.

So if you're a bad trader like me, just follow watchwoords advice.

[fr33d0miz3r]

I can feel a Winkledump coming.

BTW, how many coins do they have?

[w00dy]

I can feel a Winkledump coming.

BTW, how many coins do they have?

they said 1% of 11ish mil or something

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I can feel a Winkledump coming.

BTW, how many coins do they have?

200k, but they won't be moving them anytime soon, see ETF

[N12]

I can feel a Winkledump coming.

BTW, how many coins do they have?

Over 100k, though in their SEC filing they propose to sell 200k BTC.

Very telling that no bounce is achieved even at current levels. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but bear with me: This thing needs to capitulate on incredible volume and a low <50 before we bottom out for good.

[ChartBuddy]

[fulepp]

I can feel a Winkledump coming.

BTW, how many coins do they have?

Over 100k, though in their SEC filing they propose to sell 200k BTC.

Very telling that no bounce is achieved even at current levels. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but bear with me: This thing needs to capitulate on incredible volume and a low <50 before we bottom out for good.

reading all the topics here unfortunately I believe in this statement. 50 is what everyone is waiting for. It is not a magical break point what most of the financial analytic guys/galls say but a number what everyone is hoping the absolute minimum.

If we have to reach a limit where most of the people jut "give away" their stash because they lost their faith that must to be way below that limit. At the moment there is about 9k BTC @55, the biggest wall what i can see around this "believed" brake point. And of course a lot of order around 33.

Once again I am not a financial person. I don't want to see the price go down that deep but this is not our decision. I believe in the future and I hope one day when we go to the shop / pub / petrol station we can pay with BTC.

[fr33d0miz3r]

50 is what everyone is waiting for. It is not a magical break point what most of the financial analytic guys/galls say but a number what everyone is hoping the absolute minimum.

I'm hoping the absolute minimun will be $10-15, but I think this minimum will be for short time, then will bounce to $30-40 and stabilize