Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[420]

The only next likely event is a watershot out of the trunk up to $82 $83, with 75% probability

[Kazu]

Wow this weed from silk road really does work!

[byronbb]

[silverfuture]

lol!

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[dan99]

Moving steady to 80 and above. Climbing up is always difficult compares to coming down.

[tutkarz]

Moving steady to 80 and above. Climbing up is always difficult compares to coming down.

especially when you can fall at any time.

[MickeyT2008]

I'll just leave this here.

(You could make money if you feel cowboy enough)

There are a few things that I have been reticent to talk about, simply because I didn't want the general public to know the stuff that "we" know.  However, in the spirit of this thread - helping people to stop losing money - I have decided to share a little.

One of the main and widely-talked about issues is "the manipulator".  After watching time and again as individuals have "the hammer" dropped on them, I figured I might as well shed a little light on what may be happening.  There are several different strategies being used by a few individuals with "lots" of buying power, so I'll talk a little about the main strategy I see on a daily basis.

The manipulator is basically a large trader who is repetitively practicing a strategy we call "the hammer".  It's a simple strategy of deception and can lead to a "crack" in prices.  Prior to applying a systematic strategy to the BTC market, I used to trade with him and make a decent profit.

The Hammer (Long)
1.  Big trader posts large volume on the ask side
2.  Individuals see the ask and try and get in front of him by selling/shorting/lowering their offers
3.  He is simultaneously buying at the bid from the small guys
4.  As soon as selling volume dries up, he pulls his ask and enters long, causing a jump in prices
5.  He sells to the people who buy behind him, scalping a profit

How to Play the Hammer (Long)
1.  Watch the volume from the small traders that are trying to trade in front of him
2.  When the volume dries up and he pulls his ask - enter long
3.  If he doesn't follow soon with a large trade, exit your trade at a scratch or loss

There are several different variants of this strategy, but as a general rule of thumb - if you see a fake bid or ask, the markets are probably going that way soon.

This is more for informative purposes than actual trading advice.  See how subjective this is?  In my opinion, this type of trading isn't scalable and it doesn't possess long-term profitability, which is what this thread is about.  My suggestion is that you take this information as a little "FYI" and stick to a systematic and tested strategy, ignoring the games that go on in the order-book entirely.

Having only got into trading just after the April crash I kept finding walls suddenly appearing, causing me to panic and 'have to' trade at a loss.  By posting this a little while back Frozenlock you really helped me to understand Wallzilla's fiendish plans and to gain rather than lose from them most times.  I'm still only trading with a small amount but this insight (along with the experience I'm gaining) has helped to reverse my losses and I'm generally trading better.  Thanks for that.

[wonkytonky]

Wow this weed from silk road really does work!

never heard of this pattern  

although.. i'm realy tired of the downtrend.. i rather have it hit bottom soon..  instead of a temporary uprally with  sideways up and down  to eventualy hit bottom anyways.. lets get it over with so i can make a big long trade for months

[Loozik]

Having only got into trading just after the April crash I kept finding walls suddenly appearing, causing me to panic and 'have to' trade at a loss.  By posting this a little while back Frozenlock you really helped me to understand Wallzilla's fiendish plans and to gain rather than lose from them most times.  I'm still only trading with a small amount but this insight (along with the experience I'm gaining) has helped to reverse my losses and I'm generally trading better.  Thanks for that.

--------------------

DOM (including walls) analysis can be of importance when you trade leveraged instruments, markets are liquid, spreads tight, trades can be short yet profitable and infrastructure sufficient for HFT.

Walls have no significance for current BTC trading (other than watching them for entertainment). Have you seen how many walls were eaten / withdrawn on the way from 136 to 66? Was there any significant wall at 66 that would justify trend reversal? Not really, yet Mrs Market reversed.

Walls are just smoke screens  

That 80 something wall will either be withdrawn by the whale or eaten.

----------------------

Nothing happening, going out for a bike ride.

[Rampion]

200 day EMA (blue line): once support, now resistance

[MickeyT2008]

Having only got into trading just after the April crash I kept finding walls suddenly appearing, causing me to panic and 'have to' trade at a loss.  By posting this a little while back Frozenlock you really helped me to understand Wallzilla's fiendish plans and to gain rather than lose from them most times.  I'm still only trading with a small amount but this insight (along with the experience I'm gaining) has helped to reverse my losses and I'm generally trading better.  Thanks for that.

--------------------

DOM (including walls) analysis can be of importance when you trade leveraged instruments, markets are liquid, spreads tight, trades can be short yet profitable and infrastructure sufficient for HFT.

Walls have no significance for current BTC trading (other than watching them for entertainment). Have you seen how many walls were eaten / withdrawn on the way from 136 to 66? Was there any significant wall at 66 that would justify trend reversal? Not really, yet Mrs Market reversed.

Walls are just smoke screens  

That 80 something wall will either be withdrawn by the whale or eaten.

----------------------

Nothing happening, going out for a bike ride.

That's right, but until I had it explained to me that this was a deliberate manipulative strategy rather than a simple trend reversal I usually ended up on the wrong side of it.  Frozenlock making this clear to me means that I now see what it is and can trade accordingly, panic is not the answer.  I don't follow the exact strategy outlined in the post, I just decide what needs to be done according to the circumstances when the hammer strategy is used, recognising it rather than falling for it makes a big difference.  BTC is a strange small market with a mixture of noobs and professionals, I'm doing my best to move from the former to the latter category, each day and each success or mistake I make teaches me a little more.

[ChartBuddy]

[Miz4r]

200 day EMA (blue line): once support, now resistance

Don't see how the 200 day EMA has ever given support. And the resistance is only there now because of that big ass wall in the way. The market is just waiting for it to be pulled or eaten by a few whales, we'll probably go right through it when America wakes up in a few hours. I think only 90 will prove to be any real resistance, we'll probably bounce off a little there before continuing towards triple digits.

[w00dy]

is there ANY reason why coins today should be worth 20-30% more than yesterday? I don't see any. 

[Rampion]

is there ANY reason why coins today should be worth 20-30% more than yesterday? I don't see any. 

Is there ANY reasons why coins today should be worth 6-fold more than in January?

[MickeyT2008]

is there ANY reason why coins today should be worth 20-30% more than yesterday? I don't see any.  

Is there ANY reasons why coins today should be worth 6-fold more than in January?

Or indeed any reason why they should only be worth half what they were three weeks ago?

Bit coin may have the advantage over fiat in that the 21 million BTC limit prevents inflation and endless money printing, but it's just the same as fiat in that its only value is the faith that people place in it - in fact it's worse in this respect because due to being almost impossible to spend in the shops people don't automatically equate a certain amount of BTC with an amount of goods - this is why the price fluctuates wildly, until you can spend it normally its only value is that given to it by investors and speculators.  This is good for day traders but not so good for BTC itself being taken seriously as a currency.  People say it won't become a mainstream currency for normal people to shop with until it becomes stable, personally I think it's the other way around.

[gizmoh]

is there ANY reason why coins today should be worth 20-30% more than yesterday? I don't see any. 

Exactly, Fundamentals of the downtrend has NOT changed. Its is an attempt by some big actor(s) to uplift the price to dump at better price.
Notice there is no panic buying and volume is not great.
No new influx of USD, no world economic crash, no excellent news for bitcoin, A great price to Sell i say.

[MickeyT2008]

is there ANY reason why coins today should be worth 20-30% more than yesterday? I don't see any. 

BTC don't give a fuck about reasons 

+1

Spot on!