Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[derpinheimer]

2k ask wall at 144.70919

[smiley123]

2k ask wall at 144.70919

Noticed that. Also, looks like total asks went up also to 44k from 41k earlier.

[molecular]

hmm...



 

good catch. Some features of cup&handle pattern:

1.) Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.

2.) Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.

3.) Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which conforms with Dow Theory.

4.) Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times it is just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.

5.) Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.

6.) Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.

7.) Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.

let's see what fits:

1.) prior trend: check (may be debatable)
2.) cup bottom support: check
3.) cup depth: check
4.) handle pullback: max 1/3 of cup, in progress, but so far: check
5.) FAIL, but: bitcoin may be faster
6.) to be determined
7.) Target: 150 to 155 => rocket afterwards?

fits on both bitstamp and gox.

[rpietila]

Right now - some action in Bitstamp..

[chufchuf]

Difference between stamp and gox 20$. Something happened?

Aliens from the planet Arf 72 descended upon us and had sex with penguins.

[prophetx]

how about going with the simplest and most plausible explanation.

some people have money stuck on gox, have to pay some bills and were not able to get a large wire out, thus they bought btc on gox, sent it to bitstamp and are dumping so they have some cash to pay their bills.  Or to pay a bill/invoice from a merchant that uses bitstamp or one of the party payment providers that use bitstamp

simple enough?

also look at the macd on the 1 and 3 day charts...

[samson]

how about going with the simplest and most plausible explanation.

some people have money stuck on gox, have to pay some bills and were not able to get a large wire out, thus they bought btc on gox, sent it to bitstamp and are dumping so they have some cash to pay their bills.  Or to pay a bill/invoice from a merchant that uses bitstamp or one of the party payment providers that use bitstamp

LOL, the people fleeing from MtGox because they're about to 'go bankrupt' sold their BTC and left months ago.

[bitcoin44me]

how about going with the simplest and most plausible explanation.

some people have money stuck on gox, have to pay some bills and were not able to get a large wire out, thus they bought btc on gox, sent it to bitstamp and are dumping so they have some cash to pay their bills.  Or to pay a bill/invoice from a merchant that uses bitstamp or one of the party payment providers that use bitstamp

simple enough?

also look at the macd on the 1 and 3 day charts...

Why would they have waited so much weeks?
It might be an explanation but only for a very small part ...

[solex]

Why would they have waited so much weeks?
It might be an explanation but only for a very small part ...

Many people have waited many weeks while mtgox filled their ears with the siren song of "only two more weeks"^TM

Some of these people finally cracked and bailed out to get what they can get in fiat.

[bitcoin44me]

So what will happen now?
Mt gox will die?

[solex]

No, i think it will struggle on for as long as it has some major clients. While they can do even a stupidly small number of transfers per day (10 I think) it is probably enough to keep their major clients happy.

Anyone new to bitcoin is crazy going to mtgox to buy their first stash. Why pay 15% more than necessary?

[rpietila]

Last60minutes.com(TM):

1-2 sellers sold about 1kBTC in Bitstamp, crashing the price from 125.5 to 122.8. On the buying side I noticed one bot was purchasing in 5 and 10BTC chunks, at market price. After the selling ended, the price rebounded to about 125, leaving the orderbook very thin around the market price (about 4% spread between 500BTC bid/ask depth).

[prophetx]

how about going with the simplest and most plausible explanation.

some people have money stuck on gox, have to pay some bills and were not able to get a large wire out, thus they bought btc on gox, sent it to bitstamp and are dumping so they have some cash to pay their bills.  Or to pay a bill/invoice from a merchant that uses bitstamp or one of the party payment providers that use bitstamp

LOL, the people fleeing from MtGox because they're about to 'go bankrupt' sold their BTC and left months ago.

i never referred to those people, i said people who had money on gox who needed to pay their end of month invoices....  while not mutually exclusive they are also not the same...

[samson]

Why would they have waited so much weeks?
It might be an explanation but only for a very small part ...

Many people have waited many weeks while mtgox filled their ears with the siren song of "only two more weeks"^TM

Some of these people finally cracked and bailed out to get what they can get in fiat.

You seeem to be assuming that people who have USD in MtGox right now only want fiat.

Why is that ? I would think most people who have invested in crypto currency will keep their investment either in crypto currencies or on an exchange in order to buy cheaper currencies when prices fall.

I know this is the case for me. I withdrew 20-30k USD a few months ago but the rest is staying on exchanges in fiat or in coins of one form or another.

I'm not scrambling to withdraw it from anywhere. Not now, not ever.

[samson]

how about going with the simplest and most plausible explanation.

some people have money stuck on gox, have to pay some bills and were not able to get a large wire out, thus they bought btc on gox, sent it to bitstamp and are dumping so they have some cash to pay their bills.  Or to pay a bill/invoice from a merchant that uses bitstamp or one of the party payment providers that use bitstamp

LOL, the people fleeing from MtGox because they're about to 'go bankrupt' sold their BTC and left months ago.

i never referred to those people, i said people who had money on gox who needed to pay their end of month invoices....  while not mutually exclusive they are also not the same...

This situation has been ongoing for multiple months now.

[prophetx]

how about going with the simplest and most plausible explanation.

some people have money stuck on gox, have to pay some bills and were not able to get a large wire out, thus they bought btc on gox, sent it to bitstamp and are dumping so they have some cash to pay their bills.  Or to pay a bill/invoice from a merchant that uses bitstamp or one of the party payment providers that use bitstamp

LOL, the people fleeing from MtGox because they're about to 'go bankrupt' sold their BTC and left months ago.

i never referred to those people, i said people who had money on gox who needed to pay their end of month invoices....  while not mutually exclusive they are also not the same...

This situation has been ongoing for multiple months now.

yes and there is a run up ever last week of the month and then the price falls... wonder why...   

[tarmi]

Last60minutes.com(TM):

1-2 sellers sold about 1kBTC in Bitstamp, crashing the price from 125.5 to 122.8. On the buying side I noticed one bot was purchasing in 5 and 10BTC chunks, at market price. After the selling ended, the price rebounded to about 125, leaving the orderbook very thin around the market price (about 4% spread between 500BTC bid/ask depth).

stupid bot is following mtgox price.

[adamstgBit]

LMAO at the intense volatility , while i was sleeping.

more or less what i was dreaming about...

Gooood show!

[rudrigorc2]

LOL 

[tarmi]

when there is enough resistance on bitstamp, price goes down on mtgox.

when mtgox price goes up considerably, someone dumps on bitstamp.

bottom line: mtgox is useless.