Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[prophetx]

Buy a little at a time, sell a little at a time, readjust you position so the value of ur btc is a certain percentage if your portfolio

[RationalSpeculator]

I just hate this rise. Sold too many coins No trust anymore that it will go down again to $100. Maybe $130-$150 at best.

We are close to touching the old time high again. This is not 2011.

I'm eating my cake and it tastes like chit.  

[prophetx]

the spread between gox en stamp is betting smaller?  Any ideas why?

Used to be 15$ spread when in 100-150 range, like >10%, now its 10$ around the 200 range, so about ~5%...

arbitrage.

someone is doing it.

It will be interesting what will happend when we have less than 10k btc on mtgox...

[Miz4r]

I sold 50% of my play money on Bitstamp just to have some fiat ready in case of a correction. There will be a correction, and it will be big so you just have to have some fiat on the side. But no way I'm selling all or the majority of my coins, that's not a risk I'm willing to take when bitcoin can do all kinds of crazy things you weren't expecting.

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

the spread between gox en stamp is betting smaller?  Any ideas why?

Used to be 15$ spread when in 100-150 range, like >10%, now its 10$ around the 200 range, so about ~5%...

arbitrage.

someone is doing it.

I think it isn't only arbitrage. New money is flowing into the exchanges, and of course people send it where a) the BTC price is lower, b) money transfers are known to work reasonably well.

Both lets new buyers prefer Bitstamp over MtGox...

[ardana123]

"play money". I always lol when i hear people say that while it's real money.

[Miz4r]

"play money". I always lol when i hear people say that while it's real money.

It just means I use a relatively small portion of the total money invested to gamble and play the market with. Trading short term fluctuations is just a funny little game, right?

[ag@th0s]

Panic and sell when it crashes to 150? seriously though....I lost 5 btc day trading and decided never to do it again. Long is the way forward.

Yeah - something like that.  Think the biggest hit I took was a drop of $14- which, natch, totally reversed as soon as I sold out.  I've lost 8.5 btc on what I would have today otherwise, but I trade better on a rising market (who doesn't)  I'm just not sticking at the right points - can't believe I sold at 76.98 in July. AAAARGGGH!

[gandhibt]

It has been very hard to win "just hold" tactic to this day, but the thing is risk management. It's very hard to predict what is going to happen and it may be wise to sell if the trend might turn, you just have to buy back soon if the trend didn't turned. You may end up losing little coins, but someday the trend will turn and then you win a lot of coins/fiat if you always remembered to pay the "insurance".

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

^ I think you answered your own question

In case it's still not clear: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w

LOL - that's my dilemma - I definitely should have held earlier, but in the immediate short term I can see the likelihood of a big correction which would test my resolve, even if it bounced back as it did after SR.  I don't know if I've got the balls to see $50-60 or more taken off the price and Hold.

Balls come from studying and thinking about Bitcoin and its potential, the possible outcomes and the probabilities of those outcomes, and then just sitting back and relaxing. Don't look at short-term charts. Look at long-term log charts to keep a clear head.

This may help: http://irdial.com/blogdial/?p=3166 Then realize he's wrong, Bitcoin is all that AND a Gold 2.0.

[nottorious91]

I think an short term correction is coming, might slide about 15usd

[DougTanner]

Wow, another big night!

[phantastisch]

Wow, another big night!

https://i.imgur.com/LrUo70F.jpg

Good Morning USA, I got a feeling that it's gonna be a wonderful day
The sun in the sky has a smile on his face and it's shining to salute to the American race.
Oh boy, it's well to say: "Good Morning USA."

[RationalSpeculator]

It has been very hard to win "just hold" tactic to this day, but the thing is risk management. It's very hard to predict what is going to happen and it may be wise to sell if the trend might turn, you just have to buy back soon if the trend didn't turned. You may end up losing little coins, but someday the trend will turn and then you win a lot of coins/fiat if you always remembered to pay the "insurance".

Risk management might suffer from faulty logic.

What is the riskiest?

An investment with average risk of loss and high potential reward (buy and hold btc),
or an investment with low risk of loss and average potential reward (sell btc as it goes up and lock in profit)?

It depends, risk of losing money is the highest in first, but risk of missing out on a rare opportunity to become a billionaire is highest in second.

[N12]

It depends, risk of losing money is the highest in first, but risk of missing out a once in a life time opportunity to become a billionaire is highest in second.

Money has marginal utility, it is more important to secure your first million than to make another million.

[oda.krell]

I just hate this rise. Sold too many coins No trust anymore that it will go down again to $100. Maybe $130-$150 at best.

We are close to touching the old time high again. This is not 2011.

I'm eating my cake and it tastes like chit.  

Sorry to hear that.

I'm kind of nervous myself. I'm holding, all of it, waiting for the last moment to sell. I'd love to say "it looks like it's about to turn around", but in reality, I don't see any signs for that (likely to happen eventually) correction yet. Neither on stamp nor on gox. So, I'm holding.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The flipside of "Don't invest what you can't afford to lose" is "DO invest in what you CAN afford to lose" (as long as you have reason to believe the bet is asymmetric like with Bitcoin*). It's just not socially acceptable to warn people in the latter way instead of the former.

*Perhaps 10-20% chance of making you very wealthy, 80-90% chance you lose all your play money

[gandhibt]

It has been very hard to win "just hold" tactic to this day, but the thing is risk management. It's very hard to predict what is going to happen and it may be wise to sell if the trend might turn, you just have to buy back soon if the trend didn't turned. You may end up losing little coins, but someday the trend will turn and then you win a lot of coins/fiat if you always remembered to pay the "insurance".

Risk management might suffer from faulty logic.

What is the riskiest?

An investment with average risk of loss and high potential reward (buy and hold btc),
or an investment with low risk of loss and average potential reward (sell btc as it goes up and lock in profit)?

It depends, risk of losing money is the highest in first, but risk of missing out on a rare opportunity to become a billionaire is highest in second.

Bolded the answer.

[gandhibt]

Someone asked about good btcchina ticker and I might have found it, there's alarm also! http://bitcointicker.co/

[RationalSpeculator]

It depends, risk of losing money is the highest in first, but risk of missing out a once in a life time opportunity to become a billionaire is highest in second.

Money has marginal utility, it is more important to secure your first million than to make another million.

Thanks for bringing that up Blitz. You are right. I really needed to lock in some profit from btc. It has given me large utility in quality of life, security, confidence.


By the way, I think you are doing a great job moderating the forum. I haven't seen censorship, yet you do keep it clean, removing bump posts and keeping speculation forum on topic.