Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[spooderman]

and also:

this +grahams number

[1715286149]

1715286149

[1715286149]

1715286149

[1715286149]

1715286149

[oda.krell]

I don't like this binary mentality some here seem to follow, that it's either "buy & hold forever" or "daytrade the tiniest of price swings". Non surprisingly, there is a middle ground.

Conservatively estimated, since (and including) the April 10 crash/correction, by my count there were about 8 opportunities to lock in a (btc) profit without having to watch each minimal fluctuation. What I mean is: there was ample opportunity to watch the price on a daily basis, and if you made the right call, profit a few days (or in some cases: weeks) later.

You can say that it's not worth the risk, that it's "safer" to just hold. However, that's a rather strange argument considering that absolutely everyone of us who invested in this experiment is participating in something extremely risky. The real question is, do you believe you can, profitably, trade the bigger swings, or do you think you're better of holding and trusting the long-term uptrend.

Both strategies are viable options, and I don't think there is an unconditional advice that can be given -- at the very least, the advice has to be made conditional on the risk profile of the market participant, the desired profits in relation to the starting capital, and, well, the trading "talent" of him or her.

[Miz4r]

Correction is underway in China, coming to Gox and Bitstamp now. Good better now than later, let's pick it back up at 170-180.

[Walsoraj]

It's not Thursday. We can't crash yet.

[prophetx]

great wall of china coming down.... barbarians are invading!

[Xer0]

short the fuck out of it

[wobber]

BUBBLE POPSSSS!

[Ivanhoe]

Funny bears.

[knight22]

oups bear trap

[annette786]

Now this is the GOX I remember.

[prophetx]

As I said many times: buy and hold has historically been a winning strategy with BTC. Daytrading BTC is a huge risk, and IMO it should be done ONLY after an obvious bubble pop that leads to a bear market, as we had from mid April to July/August.

In my book this is a very bad time to daytrade, is time to hold like a motherfucker, as I've been saying since the beginning of July.

I also remember you saying I and other bulls were in denial and we would panic and capitulate soon when we sat around $70-80 in June/July. Turned out you were horribly wrong those days, I wonder how many people lost money listening to your bearish rants.

That was a bit earlier, but its true that many times my bearish calls were wrong. First (April, post-crash) I said the very bottom was already hit ($50) and that this was in no way like 2011, then I started to doubt about this and I wrote that we would probably go to $30. It turned out I was completely right in April, and completely wrong in May. Summing up, that was a bad call from my side for sure. Nevertheless, I missed the very bottom in the hope of doubling my coins, but we WERE in a bear market indeed, and those who sold at $125 in May (which is when I sold my coins, it's all on the forums) have bought for sure cheaper coins when we went again to $60/$70. I know I did, even if I was expecting them even cheaper. At the end of the day, I ended up with more coins I had pre-bubble - I didn't triple them, I didn't double them, but I increased them by a healthy 35%. I was up to 50% at some point, then sold at the very bottom in one occasion, fucking up, but you cannot be right 100% of the time.

What I feel sorry for is for those guys who had thousands of coins in 2011, and now they have only a few hundreds. What I guarantee you is that won't happen to me. I know very well what's my goal in this game: to end up with MORE btc I had. It's easy to make fiat profits with an asset that went from sub $1 to $266 in 3 years. Even a monkey can have fiat profits by trading such an asset. The difficult thing is to end up with MORE BTC in the process, and that's my only purpose.

up 35% is very respectable.

people need to make their own decisions, personally sticking to a strategy seems to work well.

for example my strategy is buying more when there is a massive dump, which only happens every once in a while - unfortunately i missed the SR dump, thought it would go lower

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

It's certainly possible to make additional profit trading, and despite the many losers there are always some winners. It seems to me, though, that the average person would be satisfied with Bitcoin-level annual gains if they truly believed it had a future, or if they fully understood and internalized the idea that Bitcoin is a heavily asymmetric bet. If you believe Bitcoin has a good chance of going mainstream, you believe you've been privileged to identify the investment opportunity of the century in the form of simply buying and holding.

Of course "you can always have more," but is it really that people are so easily looking this gift horse in the mouth, or is it something else? It seems to me that such a ready desire to increase the risk is more a sign of not really grasping Bitcoin's potential. It seems the mentality is to "get while the getting's good" because Bitcoin may not work out. I suppose everyone's had that thought at some point: "Bitcoin may eventually get squashed out of existence by governments or hackers, but I bet I can ride this train for one or two big jumps and cash out enough to live on." With that fearful mindset it becomes appealing to try to boost your gains since you don't know if you intend to see where this ride goes, and you don't really know if you believe it could ever reach $10,000 or $100,000 per coin.

And really, that's fine. Not everyone is a visionary, and this isn't a religion. Moreover, some bitcoin holders are experienced traders and would only risk small portions of their stash. But the tendency for so many people to so readily engage in notoriously treacherous trading trying to catch price movements seems like it is a problem of lack of education or thought about Bitcoin's potential, including perhaps deep understanding of economics and technology adoption and otherwise how deeply broken the establishment systems are and what circumnavigating them would mean for the global standard of living.

[notme]

It's certainly possible to make additional profit trading, and despite the many losers there are always some winners. It seems to me, though, that the average person would be satisfied with Bitcoin-level annual gains if they believe it has a future, or if they understand and agree with the idea that Bitcoin is a heavily asymmetric bet. If you believe Bitcoin has a good chance of going mainstream, you believe you've been privileged to identify the investment opportunity of the century in the form of simply buying and holding.

Of course "you can always have more," but is it really that people are so easily looking this gift horse in the mouth, or is it something else? It seems to me that such a ready desire to increase the risk is more a sign of not really grasping Bitcoin's potential. It seems the mentality is to "get while the getting's good" because Bitcoin may not work out. I suppose everyone's had that thought at some point: "Bitcoin may eventually get squashed out of existence by governments or hackers, but I bet I can ride this train for one or two big jumps and cash out enough to live on." With that fearful mindset it becomes appealing to try to boost your gains since you don't know if you intend to see where this ride goes, and you don't really know if you believe it could ever reach $10,000 or $100,000 per coin.

And really, that's fine. Not everyone is a visionary, and this isn't a religion. Moreover, some bitcoin holders are experienced traders and would only risk small portions of their stash. But the tendency for so many people to so readily engage in such notoriously treacherous trading trying to catch price movements seems like it is a problem of lack of education or thought about Bitcoin's potential, including perhaps deep understanding of economics and technology adoption and otherwise whow deeply broken the establishment systems are and what circumnavigating them means for the global standard of living, etc.

Well said.

[maz]

It's certainly possible to make additional profit trading, and despite the many losers there are always some winners. It seems to me, though, that the average person would be satisfied with Bitcoin-level annual gains if they truly believed it had a future, or if they fully understood and internalized the idea that Bitcoin is a heavily asymmetric bet. If you believe Bitcoin has a good chance of going mainstream, you believe you've been privileged to identify the investment opportunity of the century in the form of simply buying and holding.

Of course "you can always have more," but is it really that people are so easily looking this gift horse in the mouth, or is it something else? It seems to me that such a ready desire to increase the risk is more a sign of not really grasping Bitcoin's potential. It seems the mentality is to "get while the getting's good" because Bitcoin may not work out. I suppose everyone's had that thought at some point: "Bitcoin may eventually get squashed out of existence by governments or hackers, but I bet I can ride this train for one or two big jumps and cash out enough to live on." With that fearful mindset it becomes appealing to try to boost your gains since you don't know if you intend to see where this ride goes, and you don't really know if you believe it could ever reach $10,000 or $100,000 per coin.

And really, that's fine. Not everyone is a visionary, and this isn't a religion. Moreover, some bitcoin holders are experienced traders and would only risk small portions of their stash. But the tendency for so many people to so readily engage in notoriously treacherous trading trying to catch price movements seems like it is a problem of lack of education or thought about Bitcoin's potential, including perhaps deep understanding of economics and technology adoption and otherwise how deeply broken the establishment systems are and what circumnavigating them would mean for the global standard of living.

Nicely put.

[prophetx]

well i don't daytrade but i think it is good that people do, it provides liquidity

if every just kept their btc under their mattress (print out of private key), then there would be no chance for anyone new to get their hands on some

[Richy_T]

Now this is the GOX I remember.

15 minute lag?

[San1ty]

Now this is the GOX I remember.

15 minute lag?

No lag at all IMHO?

[gandhibt]

Bear trap? That was a suprise =D

[notme]

well i don't daytrade but i think it is good that people do, it provides liquidity

if every just kept their btc under their mattress (print out of private key), then there would be no chance for anyone new to get their hands on some

And that's why I run my market making it even though at times like this I slowly bleed coins.  Sure , I could shut it off, but then the rally would get unsustainable more quickly.

[wasserman99]

I like to hope that the bears in this kind of market sustain enough losses that their power to irrationally drive it down is greatly diluted. I suppose corrections are natural, but it's nice to have a collective sense of confidence when the smart ones know it's going up no matter the short-term obstacles. I guess the new money have to get their coins from someone.

youre a bear if you think market will drop. that doesnt mean that youre getting together with all your bear friends and "irrationally" driving the market down (any more than bulls are "irrational" fur pushing price up). that would never happen anyway. anytime there is a reversal, bears will come out.