Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Adrian-x]

Bit of a Dilemma.  Obviously I'm a pretty shit trader - but checking my trading sheet, if I had simply bought BTC at the time I moved money into Stamp since May - I would have bought at 101 - 120 and 125 and right now I would have nearly double the coins that I do having traded for 5 months!  5 months of stress just to break even So having just gone back in at $190 - what to do?

You and Rick Falkvinge of the pirate party.
http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1owf4v/im_rick_falkvinge_founder_of_the_first_pirate/ccwbao9

Buy and hold! Is hard to beat.

[prophetx]

I think it's a myth that Bitcoin's value mostly stems from transaction value or merchant adoption. The real driving force is long-term investment. Or rather, the value does stem from transaction value and merchant adoption, but not present transaction value or merchant adoption but future transaction value and merchant adoption. One of the things that investors do is drive up the price of things that will serve a valuable function in the future, since most people won't buy them now since they're not valuable for that purpose now.

You beat me to it  

an investment produces something, it has utility.  investing in a worker and a taco truck, produces a return.  buying something and hiding it produces nothing.

the present value should already contain all discounted future value, which is anticipated by market participants.  although one could make an argument that market participants are growing temporarily driving up the price.

so then we may have what is called a liquidity trap in the bitcoin world.  which would result in deflation (higher btc price)that we are now seeing but it is not a long term innovation value driven bubble by a change in the rate of adoption and rate of tx growth.  

IF that is the case, then as soon as the speculators run out of powder and whatever other reasons others may have for hoarding the crash will come , unless tx rates increase dramatically.  it could happen, i just don't see it right now.

this is not to say that the price cannot go up, it may for some time, until people realize that there is no additional value from just buying the stuff and not doing anything with it.

[impulse]

an investment produces something, it has utility.  investing in a worker and a taco truck, produces a return.  buying something and hiding it produces nothing.

the present value should already contain all discounted future value, which is anticipated by market participants.  although one could make an argument that market participants are growing temporarily driving up the price.

so then we may have what is called a liquidity trap in the bitcoin world.  which would result in deflation (higher btc price)that we are now seeing but it is not a long term innovation value driven bubble by a change in the rate of adoption and rate of tx growth.  

IF that is the case, then as soon as the speculators run out of powder and whatever other reasons others may have for hoarding the crash will come , unless tx rates increase dramatically.  it could happen, i just don't see it right now.

this is not to say that the price cannot go up, it may for some time, until people realize that there is no additional value from just buying the stuff and not doing anything with it.

Bitcoin does have utility, and it is filling a serious gap in a world that is looking for alternative ways to store wealth in an increasingly unstable financial world. I live in a city that is currently experiencing a condo boom/bubble that is largely the result of asian money looking for a way to hedge their holdings. Bitcoin is starting filling this niche. In the future, Bitcoin's utility as a transactional medium will be realized with increased market penetration and a mature ecosystem of services.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I think it's a myth that Bitcoin's value mostly stems from transaction value or merchant adoption. The real driving force is long-term investment. Or rather, the value does stem from transaction value and merchant adoption, but not present transaction value or merchant adoption but future transaction value and merchant adoption. One of the things that investors do is drive up the price of things that will serve a valuable function in the future, since most people won't buy them now since they're not valuable for that purpose now.

You beat me to it  

an investment produces something, it has utility.

I take it you're not a gold bug?

[NewLiberty]

the present value should already contain all discounted future value, which is anticipated by market participants.  although one could make an argument that market participants are growing temporarily driving up the price.

Inflation adjusted interest rates are veering negative in unbacked currencies that may also default.  The question of the revaluation of discounted future value seems that it is being answered by the market in the moment.

Oh...And tulips are pretty too.  

[prophetx]

I think it's a myth that Bitcoin's value mostly stems from transaction value or merchant adoption. The real driving force is long-term investment. Or rather, the value does stem from transaction value and merchant adoption, but not present transaction value or merchant adoption but future transaction value and merchant adoption. One of the things that investors do is drive up the price of things that will serve a valuable function in the future, since most people won't buy them now since they're not valuable for that purpose now.

You beat me to it  

an investment produces something, it has utility.

I take it you're not a gold bug?

i actually do own  some coins

edit: and i do keep some of them under my mattress...

[Spaceman_Spiff]

an investment produces something, it has utility.

I take it you're not a gold bug?

i actually do own  some coins

Why?

[rpietila]

Some people like me, sold enough BTC to live on for the next 4 years right after and during the march to 266 in case we did not get back to the highs for a while. I sold at $130 then and I'm not selling at $200 now. $500 to $1000 range is when I will sell a few more. I think more than a few people are just like me in this. We have enough cash to wait this out.

Seconded.

[prophetx]

an investment produces something, it has utility.

I take it you're not a gold bug?

i actually do own  some coins

Why?

for some of the same reasons some people are hoarding btc now.

knowing that mindset i believe the current run up that is happening now is not a sudden shift in detection of an unexpected increase in sustainable future value growth rates.

[nottorious91]

Mini correction incoming?

[theonewhowaskazu]

The spread between Gox and Bitstamp is the smallest its been in a while, percentage-wise. Its only around 5%. this either means that Gox isn't high enough & will go higher in the future, Bitstamp is too high, or perhaps the arbitrage channels are opening up again.

[wasserman99]

The spread between Gox and Bitstamp is the smallest its been in a while, percentage-wise. Its only around 5%. this either means that Gox isn't high enough & will go higher in the future, Bitstamp is too high, or perhaps the arbitrage channels are opening up again.

well, if Gox is selling BTC it does not have that % difference should be going down.

exactly, dump some fractional reserve bitcoins on the exchange and suppress the price. oh, Gox! 

[Walsoraj]

Apple offering iPad Mini w/ Retina in November. Bitcoin to da moon!?

[ardana123]

yes people will want to hedge against the shittyness of the new ipad

[theonewhowaskazu]

The spread between Gox and Bitstamp is the smallest its been in a while, percentage-wise. Its only around 5%. this either means that Gox isn't high enough & will go higher in the future, Bitstamp is too high, or perhaps the arbitrage channels are opening up again.

well, if Gox is selling BTC it does not have that % difference should be going down.

No, it will instead be instantly discovered as people attempt to withdraw BTC that doesn't exist.

You can delay Bank Wires infinitely, as they've shown. If you try to delay BTC withdraws, people will just stop using you.

[c1010010]

The spread between Gox and Bitstamp is the smallest its been in a while, percentage-wise. Its only around 5%. this either means that Gox isn't high enough & will go higher in the future, Bitstamp is too high, or perhaps the arbitrage channels are opening up again.

well, if Gox is selling BTC it does not have that % difference should be going down.

No, it will instead be instantly discovered as people attempt to withdraw BTC that doesn't exist.

You can delay Bank Wires infinitely, as they've shown. If you try to delay BTC withdraws, people will just stop using you.

Exactly.
There just needs to be some substantial competition for Gox... and people will go.

[theonewhowaskazu]

The spread between Gox and Bitstamp is the smallest its been in a while, percentage-wise. Its only around 5%. this either means that Gox isn't high enough & will go higher in the future, Bitstamp is too high, or perhaps the arbitrage channels are opening up again.

well, if Gox is selling BTC it does not have that % difference should be going down.

No, it will instead be instantly discovered as people attempt to withdraw BTC that doesn't exist.

You can delay Bank Wires infinitely, as they've shown. If you try to delay BTC withdraws, people will just stop using you.

Exactly.
There just needs to be some substantial competition for Gox... and people will go.

There is, its called Bitstamp.

Gox knows that it can't "print" Bitcoin, and clearly it doesn't. otherwise, the ask sum wouldn't be so low.

[wasserman99]

hmmmm.... charts look like double tops (except btcchina's spiky top).... 

[wobber]

hmmmm.... charts look like double tops (except btcchina's spiky top).... 

My idea exactly. I think we might be at the top. Or near it.

[Richy_T]

hmmmm.... charts look like double tops (except btcchina's spiky top)....  

My idea exactly. I think we might be at the top. Or near it.

It's just a pause while the first stage separates.