Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[thoughtfan]

Chinese people buy in chinese exchanges and then western people who are already familiar with the bitcoin buy in example bitstamp. Normal western people are not yet interested (google trends) but when we break ATH they will be and then everybody just BUY BUY BUY =D

It's also possible everyone who wanted to learn about bitcoin already did that back in april, and when it does hit the media those people will be like "meh, again? I'm not falling for this again!".

Those people buy when we break $500 and then they sell at the next correction bottom.

this ... is exactly why most people will not touch bitcoin with a 10 foot pole... only a few suckers will do this, and btc will get a bad reputation- it is actually pretty bad already among the normal people...

ask anyone who is a CFO or accountant if they think any large business would want to use a currency that fluctuates by 50% in any given week, and has an ultra thin market.

Now you're hitting an entirely different subject with that last remark. I'm saying the bitcoin community underestimates how many people actually know about bitcoin. I think everyone who matters (people interested in technology, IT people, general investors,...) already learned about bitcoin back in april. Never mind the regular mom and pop investors, they wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole as this is an investment that lies outside of the banking scheme. For the regular mom and pop investors to come in, something truly revolutionary (or cataclysmic like a US default that has people searching for a safe haven) needs to happen. Another thing, look at the possibilities one has to invest in bitcoin. One needs to transfer money to an unregulated bitcoin exchange like Bitstamp or Gox. No way regular mom and pop investors would do that. But that's long term talk. Short term we need to look at companies and people like us (technofreaks) endorsing bitcoin.

I'm thinking you've got a rather polar viewpoint there.  The world isn't split into two neat groups, one of which is geeks who know all about bitcoin and are already involved to the extent they will be and the other is 'mom and pop' who understand nothing and would not touch it.  

Of the geeks who may well understand enough of the underlying technology to understand how it works many I suspect would not get involved, or not with much money for some time because they don't understand the economics or potential economics of it and don't know whether it is a fad that will fade with everybody who is left's money in it.  This thing takes time to get to understand enough for an increase in confidence that it has at least a chance of going somewhere long term.  And this increase in understanding/confidence takes time and the tendency and amount to get involved with it increases incrementally.

Of the mom and pops, I talk a fair bit about bitcoins to non-geeks who, as time goes by, as Silk Road doesn't crash it, as the 'last bubble' turns out not to have popped at all but just to have partially deflated for a while, are interested and may be more inclined to get involved - or to get more involved.

I am not saying some whales may just come along and take the heat out of this but they also risk being out-whaled.  I'm not saying this growth or where we've got to today is sustainable nor that as a consequence of what I'm saying that it won't but I would not be surprised, with things having stayed relatively stable for some time, that we do some 'catch-up increase for some time before it becomes a frenzy proper.  I'm actually hoping it won't and that some whales will at some point do their sacrificial selling to calm the buying down.  Time alone will tell

[DougTanner]

Huh, Gox going up.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

read the first sentence of the first 2 paragraphs  of satoshi's wp:
"Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on financial institutions serving as trusted third parties to process electronic payments"
"What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust,
allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted
third party"
Is btc used for commerce on the Internet?
Where in the wp does it say we need a trustless asset class to invest in?
good to go back to the roots sometimes... for a reminder of why this even exists.

1) yes, btc is used for commerce on the internet.  The quantity of these transactions, thats another debate.
2) Satoshi isn't god you know (or is he? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=315953.0).  He/she/they did a brilliant thing, but it is not because some function isn't mentioned in the white paper that it shouldn't be used as such.
The only things that matter are the properties of the thing, how it can be used, and for which uses there is a demand.  

[mah87]

It's gonna crash hard;

[DougTanner]

It's gonna crash hard;

That's what I was thinking for today, but so far...

[wopwop]

as long as you cant withdraw real money, it's going nowhere but up

[mah87]

It's gonna crash hard;

That's what I was thinking for today, but so far...

It's gonna crash hard but it could reach 300$ before crashing ^^

[Spaceman_Spiff]

as long as you cant withdraw real money, it's going nowhere but up

It's a sad thing that you are making money on bogus arguments.

[thoughtfan]

It's gonna crash hard;

Of course it is Mah, of course it is!  ... and Ripple is going to the moon right?!!

[prophetx]

Chinese people buy in chinese exchanges and then western people who are already familiar with the bitcoin buy in example bitstamp. Normal western people are not yet interested (google trends) but when we break ATH they will be and then everybody just BUY BUY BUY =D

It's also possible everyone who wanted to learn about bitcoin already did that back in april, and when it does hit the media those people will be like "meh, again? I'm not falling for this again!".

Those people buy when we break $500 and then they sell at the next correction bottom.

this ... is exactly why most people will not touch bitcoin with a 10 foot pole... only a few suckers will do this, and btc will get a bad reputation- it is actually pretty bad already among the normal people...

ask anyone who is a CFO or accountant if they think any large business would want to use a currency that fluctuates by 50% in any given week, and has an ultra thin market.

when people will realize that increase in bitcoin price was not a bubble but normal market fluctuations, they will come back, especially when banks will introduce new limitations or fees for their services. Not to mention bail ins and outs.

As for the second sentence, you didn't expected new currency to be introduced with full market first day of it's existence?

the ultra thin market exists because 95% of btc is hoarded, not because it is the first day of existence (which happened a while ago btw).

the hoarding causes speculative boom and bust cycles.

the volatility from the boom and bust cycles diminish the intended economic advantage of using a trustless p2p money system vs third parties.  the diminished value lowers adoption rates...

anyway i think we will test 266 soonish...

[mah87]

We will test 266 soon then taste a huge nice bubble pop

[prophetx]

We will test 266 soon then taste a huge nice bubble pop

if that happens expect having miners slug through the valley of death for a while...  if hash power declines b/c miners go offline, block times will increase... compounding the problem...

[Corelianer]

Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west.

Exactly, but doing chart-analysis helps to have at least a hint when buy/sell

[prophetx]

Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west.

Exactly, but doing chart-analysis helps to have at least a hint when buy/sell

how does one analyze an asymptotic rise?

[gandhibt]

Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west.

Exactly, but doing chart-analysis helps to have at least a hint when buy/sell

Would be nice if GOAT would tell us when he's going to sell =)

[ChartBuddy]

[zby]

Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west.

Dump with friends!

[spooderman]

Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west.

Dump with friends!

All we want to know is....
when will the whales dump?

[DougTanner]

$215

[Corelianer]

Those big Whales will start dumping at certain price point you never know, may well be a collaboration between the big players from the east and west.

Dump with friends!

All we want to know is....
when will the whales dump?

They won't tell, that's the biggest secret. The question is if they are nice whales or asshole whales.