Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

Where are all the 'chumps' who buy at the ATH+ going to come from ?

From the silkroad bust and subsequent massive media coverage.

[Kj1]

you can buy like 100 mBTC for merely 20$
you'll be a millionaire in 2016!

just change BTC to mBTC and it will feel like 2009 all over again

[samson]

you can buy like 100 mBTC for merely 20$
you'll be a millionaire in 2016!

just change BTC to mBTC and it will feel like 2009 all over again

Ah - people starting to talk about mBTC, I remember this last time around - the end is nigh  

Nobody's ever going to use mBTC - it's a stupid idea.

As Keiser said on RT today - Bitcoin will become an 'Asset class investment'.

I don't think it will be the currency that's used to buy coffee. I suspect other crypto currencies will fill that role.

[mccorvic]

This is the disconnect. The very meaning of the words "priced in" indicates "at the present time". If something "will be priced in in the future" then it is, obviously, not priced in currently. I think there is a clear difference between news -- upon which speculators react dynamically -- and future demand spurned by that news over time.

See, then this is pointless. When you ask if something is priced in then all you are asking is "what is the price right now".  It is not the definition that I would accept because I like to think people ask questions for a reason and like their indicators to actually indicate something.

[wobber]

215.08 killed. Some more upside before bubblepop.

[ChartBuddy]

[TheKoziTwo]

Where are all the 'chumps' who buy at the ATH+ going to come from ?

People like you who sold everything at $120 and below finally realizing that you're about to be left behind?

[wobber]

Furystart! 216! Big activity, low volume!

[Miz4r]

215.08 killed. Some more upside before bubblepop.

The more people talking about this being a bubble the less likely it is to actually be one. Ofcourse intelligent people know it isn't a bubble, but don't let them stop you from talking about imaginary bubbles all day every day.

[wobber]

215.08 killed. Some more upside before bubblepop.

The more people talking about this being a bubble the less likely it is to actually be one. Ofcourse intelligent people know it isn't a bubble, but don't let them stop you from talking about imaginary bubbles all day every day.

Neo, what if I am an intelligent person but talk about a bubble so it's less likely it is actually one?

[windjc]

you can buy like 100 mBTC for merely 20$
you'll be a millionaire in 2016!

just change BTC to mBTC and it will feel like 2009 all over again

Ah - people starting to talk about mBTC, I remember this last time around - the end is nigh  

Nobody's ever going to use mBTC - it's a stupid idea.

As Keiser said on RT today - Bitcoin will become an 'Asset class investment'.

I don't think it will be the currency that's used to buy coffee. I suspect other crypto currencies will fill that role.

Really? You think when (if) BTC gets to 4 figures that people are going to be excited to buy them? You think your grandma will want to invest in BTC if a bitcoin costs $1500? You think people will pyschologically want to buy a bitcoin when its priced higher than an .oz of GOLD?

Why on earth do you think large growing companies SPLIT their stocks? Is this is not obvious to you?

People are not sophisticated. Thats why everything always forever is on sale! Oh, look this t-shirt was $69, but today only it's $19. That is the world we live in.

BTC will become psychologically too expensive one day. And mBTC will HAVE to be the denomination of the exchanges. And what I am referring to is the psychological barrier for BTC becoming an "Asset class investment."

[samson]

I sold my BTC, nice profit. All USD right now.

oh thats got to suck... when you going to buy back in? now or the ATH?


 

LOL, I've bought back in and sold a few of times since then, that was months ago.

I'll leave further buying until after the ATH when it crashes again.

[NamelessOne]

I sold my BTC, nice profit. All USD right now.

oh thats got to suck... when you going to buy back in? now or the ATH?


 

LOL, I've bought back in and sold a few of times since then, that was months ago.

I'll leave further buying until after the ATH when it crashes again.

What if it crashes and the lower is like 250?

[Miz4r]

215.08 killed. Some more upside before bubblepop.

The more people talking about this being a bubble the less likely it is to actually be one. Ofcourse intelligent people know it isn't a bubble, but don't let them stop you from talking about imaginary bubbles all day every day.

Neo, what if I am an intelligent person but talk about a bubble so it's less likely it is actually one?

Then I hope the other ones in this thread talking about bubblepops actually mean it or this bubble will pop.

[solex]

I sold my BTC, nice profit. All USD right now.

oh thats got to suck... when you going to buy back in? now or the ATH?


 

LOL, I've bought back in and sold a few of times since then, that was months ago.

I'll leave further buying until after the ATH when it crashes again.

What if it crashes and the lower is like 250?

Exactly. The way to trade bitcoin is to be all-in *most* of the time, and be partially in fiat only during obvious downtrends (like May/June was).

[MAbtc]

This is the disconnect. The very meaning of the words "priced in" indicates "at the present time". If something "will be priced in in the future" then it is, obviously, not priced in currently. I think there is a clear difference between news -- upon which speculators react dynamically -- and future demand spurned by that news over time.

See, then this is pointless. When you ask if something is priced in then all you are asking is "what is the price right now".

No, that's not it. When you ask if something is priced in, you're asking if speculators have acted on it to the extent that they will. If news came out today that Amazon will accept bitcoin, there would be a threshold at which speculators would stop buying based on the perceived future valuation. So if the price jumped from $215 to $600 in two days, you could be fairly sure that the news was being priced into the market to some extent. The full extent is obviously subject to speculation -- and that is specifically the question of whether or not something is "priced in."

By your definition, there is never, ever an answer. Nothing is ever priced in, because we have no idea what future demand looks like. It is much less tangible -- especially because of the multitude of variables and the inability to isolate the effect of any one event on future demand. Perhaps the first reward halving will be "priced in" two years from now. How would we know?

[windjc]

This is the disconnect. The very meaning of the words "priced in" indicates "at the present time". If something "will be priced in in the future" then it is, obviously, not priced in currently. I think there is a clear difference between news -- upon which speculators react dynamically -- and future demand spurned by that news over time.

See, then this is pointless. When you ask if something is priced in then all you are asking is "what is the price right now".

No, that's not it. When you ask if something is priced in, you're asking if speculators have acted on it to the extent that they will. If news came out today that Amazon will accept bitcoin, there would be a threshold at which speculators would stop buying based on the perceived future valuation. So if the price jumped from $215 to $600 in two days, you could be fairly sure that the news was being priced into the market to some extent. The full extent is obviously subject to speculation -- and that is specifically the question of whether or not something is "priced in."

By your definition, there is never, ever an answer. Nothing is ever priced in, because we have no idea what future demand looks like. It is much less tangible -- especially because of the multitude of variables and the inability to isolate the effect of any one event on future demand. Perhaps the first reward halving will be "priced in" two years from now. How would we know?

The bitcoin exchange markets are not sophisticated enough or liquid enough to have much "priced in." I would speculate that <5% of any rumor is ever priced in before it is news.

And once it is "news" I think a lot of speculators in bitcoin exchanges are not leading the action, they are following it.  The market is too volatile to try to lead. And most dont have the financial leverage to take those risks. Therefore, if the news generates new money into the markets, there is a delayed effect. That effect is then further "priced in" or "over priced in" once the speculators start following the action.

So, in China, there have been news stories for months. Money finally found its way into the market and started leading. Speculators then drove the price up through the roof.

[Loozik]

Could a kind soul advise me how I should proceed with increasing withdrawal limit at GOX? At the moment I have only 'verified' status which is not sufficient for me.

I asked here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86224.msg3422907#msg3422907 but noone answered.

[Zephir]

Could a kind soul advise me how I should proceed with increasing withdrawal limit at GOX? At the moment I have only 'verified' status which is not sufficient for me.

I asked here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86224.msg3422907#msg3422907 but noone answered.

just open the support chat and ask for it.   
it really works this way.

[samson]

Could a kind soul advise me how I should proceed with increasing withdrawal limit at GOX? At the moment I have only 'verified' status which is not sufficient for me.

I asked here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86224.msg3422907#msg3422907 but noone answered.

You email the support department and tell them that now you're verified please increase your limit up to whatever you want.

For regular verification this is 1000 BTC withdrawal per day or $10k per day / $50k per month total in imaginary wire transfers which take a long time (if ever) to be processed.