Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

Interested to know what you guys think (preferably I would like to hear the opinion of those favoring a scenario of an immediate s-curve, economic singularity or whatever you would like to call it) Bitcoin's market cap will likely be in 2016. At MtGox prices, we peaked out at about 10.8 billion so far.

Say it goes up 1000% a year which I believe is viewed as conservative, that would be 100-fold increase and we would have a trillion dollar market cap.

Perhaps a poll?

I personally think there's a critical jump from ~10B to ~100B. The former is something that the regular investment types still sneer at (just read an article by some Stanford kid a few days ago, "explaining" why Bitcoin isn't really interesting for the field of economics yet), 100B is respectable, getting close to the market cap of a global company (like, say, Apple).

What to take from that I don't know exactly: it both means (in my opinion) it will be harder to cross the next order of magnitude, and it might actually require an additional step up in btc infrastructure, merchant adoption, mainstream acceptance (something that wasn't that vital up to now, IMO), but it also means that once we cross that level of 100B, a whole new array of people and institutions will take note of this little gamble we have going here.

[wachtwoord]

stop thinking bitcoin is going XXXXX% a year

this is only happening because it new, and poeple are are still hearing about it for the first time.

we will go to 3000$ as fast as we possibly can and then start to rise much more slowly / safely.

Then why are you out?

[adamstgBit]

we will go to 3000$ as fast as we possibly can and then start to rise much more slowly / safely.

With MtGox, Bitstamp, BTCe and BTC China.

" ill just wait till the infrastructure  is all done and everything is working 100% and their no chance of failure before a invest "


where that "mmmm ya ok" meme when you need it.

[macsga]

I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses yesterday's high values ($1000/$750/$640) set about 24 hours ago, today or during the remainder of the year, (except Bitstamp at max).

I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses the current values ($700/$630/$600) during the rest of the week, (except for the following hours).

I give 75% probability to the scenario.

Otherwise the common wisdom does not hold, and 2010 is back.

Excellent TA. Only we are talking about bitcoin here... I foresee about $700 mark on mtgox until the end of the day. If not; I'm totally with you and your predictions.

[N12]

Thanks for sharing with me oda, I think your view's reasonable even though it's so hard to predict time. Will be interesting to see how common it is: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=340980.0

[Adrian-x]

Otherwise the common wisdom does not hold, and 2010 2011 is back.

I agree with your sentiments, my observation of the June 2011 bubble is it went so far off the trend line that it took a long time to catch up. We are now on track, but at any moment something fundamental may change, and we may see a demand spike of 2 orders of magnitude followed by a 12-16 month bear market.  If you dumped Bitcoin, I dumped some fiat, make good use of it.  

[ardana123]

All this attention bitcoin is getting is great, but there's one thing missing for mass adoption/speculation: a reliable market. Mt.gox? lol. Bitstamp? Shady. Btc-china? It's in China. BTC-e? It's in Russia for christ sake. Until then I just don't see it happening.

[adamstgBit]

All this attention bitcoin is getting is great, but there's one thing missing for mass adoption/speculation: a reliable market. Mt.gox? lol. Bitstamp? Shady. Btc-china? It's in China. BTC-e? It's in Russia for christ sake. Until then I just don't see it happening.

this is an american problem

everyone else can get their money out.

[CryptStorm]

Bitcoin is appreciating at 1140% per year...

+1 It's just physics (thermodynamics and Black-Scholes for the mathy). I usually believe in that kinda kooky stuff.

We agree, and I quite enjoy your analysis, contribution and commentary. :-)

[Adrian-x]

A bull is a person who does not hold fiat.

A bear is a person who holds at least some fiat and wants to return to BTC.

As you can see, I am now a bear. But almost everybody else are bulls. What this means is that you do not have the means to influence price to the upside. Only we do. But we are very few. Also the newbies do. But will they really buy in this kind of situation?

Mmmm, I remember the days when I was nearer the top of your distribution list, and thought I could make a quick buck, and then Bitcoin jumped 2 orders of magnitude and became my legendary big fish.

I think the panic buying starts in the $1000 range this time around.

Please just because I enjoy your contributions, never go all in on fiat always hold a little Bitcoin in reserve.

So you're all out at a $15 $9-$40 price?

I've been buying back in, net worth is up net Bitcoin balance is down an order of magnitude.

[gambitv]

Bitstamp Support
18th Nov., 2013
Banking software issues *RESOLVED*
Dear Bitstamp clients, We are currently experiencing some problems with our banking software. As a result, deposits and withdrawals may be delayed. We expect this issue to be solved be resolved tomorrow or the next day. We kindly ask our customers with pending transfers to remain patient and refrain from submitting additional support tickets on the matter. We will announce as soon as this issue gets resolved. Thank you for your understanding.
UPDATE: This issue has been resolved. All pending transfers are being processed.
Best regards,
The Bitstamp team

https://www.bitstamp.net/

[octaft]

Bitcoin is appreciating at 1140% per year. The trendline price for November is $328 and December $404. After several months of significantly behind the trend, we did a spectacular overshoot to $1100/$900/$750 across main exchanges. Immediately followed an hourly-term bear market, characterized by (mainly) lower highs and lower lows. We are now 40 hours after the pop.

Currently the price is at double the trendtarget. You can stretch a rubber band a lot, but when you release, it starts to contract with force. Force must be applied to reverse the course and stretch it back to 3, 4 or more times the trend. The natural tendency of the rubber band is to contract to the trendline and even 25%-40% below it.

Since this bubble developed so rapidly, the trend had no time to catch up or adjust. Therefore, despite my earlier predictions that the next crash bottom will be $500ish (double the pre-bubble ATH), I will have to adjust the downside target to about $300. This is 33% below December trendline, and also higher than the previous ATH, which will act as support. There are currently not many supports between that and the new high. These will be formed as we grind down.

In my observation, the forum is overextended and cannot buy the price up. "Others" will act according to time-tested statistical principles (refer to 4/2013 bubble pop for details). There will be a bear market lasting for weeks. Many in this forum will not acknowledge it even after it is over It will not be a huge event, and absolutely nothing to care about if you are a long-term holder. But traders do well to understand that sometimes even fiat has its day.

I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses yesterday's high values ($1000/$750/$640) set about 24 hours ago, today or during the remainder of the year, (except Bitstamp at max).

I believe that none of the exchanges surpasses the current values ($700/$630/$600) during the rest of the week, (except for the following hours).

I give 75% probability to the scenario.

Otherwise the common wisdom does not hold, and 2010 is back.

Are you SURE it wasn't just that person putting up and pulling the phantom sell walls causing the price to temporarily decrease?

[alexeft]

stop thinking bitcoin is going XXXXX% a year

this is only happening because it new, and poeple are are still hearing about it for the first time.

we will go to 3000$ as fast as we possibly can and then start to rise much more slowly / safely.

That's what we were saying when it was at $10 

[N12]

Otherwise the common wisdom does not hold, and 2010 is back.

Care to elaborate on how/why 2010?

[adamstgBit]

hahaha bears are dying!

FUCK YA!

[Spaceman_Spiff]

hahaha bears are dying!

FUCK YA!

You bought in again?

[adamstgBit]

hahaha bears are dying!

FUCK YA!

You bought in again?

still trying, but i have coins....

[miningnew]

hahaha bears are dying!

FUCK YA!

what makes you say that

[maz]

Today reminded me how vulnerable bitcoin really is at times. It was going up so strong you could have been fooled into thinking $500 was gone forever. Major eye opener. I'm glad I was here to experience it.

[adamstgBit]

hahaha bears are dying!

FUCK YA!

what makes you say that

i see the bids pilling up already..

sure its likly the dumb bear isnt done, we all know that, no one cares tho