Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[seleme]

One thing I never wrote here, didn't want to spread bad news...

Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.

It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.

Hahhaha, welcome to Wall street. What a joke  

Well, it might as well be a joke, I didn't pay much attention to it at that time (let's say unfortunately, I could make few coins id I did but obviously never would do on such kind of info) but after things went as they went I thought about it today and it made more sense.

Not sure only what kind of volume platforms that have that kind of trading had recently, not sure if that volume could be subscribed to big guys.

Or you could have lost it all... please talk about hindsight.

To all the noobs, when some guys tell you the market will crash.... hes either right or wrong and the chance is as much as flipping a coin because hes clueless as you.

Of course, that's why I said I would never act on such info from some nobody who was told by nobody who was told by nobody.

But this time it looks there is a chance it was a genuine info.

[maz]

A chart I posted on one of Risto's threads the other day.

Uploaded by Drew at tradingview 4 Days ago. As a short term bear his comments on the situation made excellent sense to me.



The same chart with the current trading data filled in over time.

let me guess, you have buy orders in at 700.

pathetic

So a guy makes a trading chart with some pretty spot on predictions, backed up by some sound market analysis, I follow that and I'm pathetic?

Lets see what you were saying only 7 days ago:

Honestly, I think you'll be lucky if we see triple digits again. I suspect a big 'crash' around 1500 but not sure it'll crash a third.

Yeah I should have listened to you obviously.

Pathetic?...lol

Posted that on monday before china crisis. If that hadn't happened we'd be at 1300 or something. In this case the person I was talking to was 'lucky'. We'll be back in 4 digits if not this weekend then early next week and you still won't have any coin.

Its always amusing so see some TA trolls (who claim to be a pro... with TA bs) posting some charts of the past to predict the future.

Funny i dont see any of them making a bank.

Sorry I didn't see your claim to fame? What did you predict that was worth reading?

[kurious]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBLpx6gQtUU

this is no joke.
we are making a difference.
step back and look at the big picture you silly bears.

Great film - loved it - but I wonder if they're look at the week's takings this week and watching the price go nuts and tank.

If we turn farmers into screen watchers, we aren't helping!

Don't get me wrong, this is the future - but not with 20% fluctuations within hours and broken exchanges!

Did you actually watch the video?

LOL if merchants accepting btc, they dont hold btc otherwise they will be in currency business instead of their main business.

The farmers dont even know what is btc.... they just use it only as payment mechanism.

I want it to work - I just think exchanges need to be more stable - after Sheep and now yet another Gox screw up I have seen, I think it has to be a hindrance to adoption - someone has to take a hit if a crash happens.  

I wasn't dissing the situation, just wishing we had a better run marketplace - that would help people like this and the infrastructure to support it.

[maz]

[freethink2013]

A chart I posted on one of Risto's threads the other day.

Uploaded by Drew at tradingview 4 Days ago. As a short term bear his comments on the situation made excellent sense to me.



The same chart with the current trading data filled in over time.

let me guess, you have buy orders in at 700.

pathetic

So a guy makes a trading chart with some pretty spot on predictions, backed up by some sound market analysis, I follow that and I'm pathetic?

Lets see what you were saying only 7 days ago:

Honestly, I think you'll be lucky if we see triple digits again. I suspect a big 'crash' around 1500 but not sure it'll crash a third.

Yeah I should have listened to you obviously.

Pathetic?...lol

Posted that on monday before china crisis. If that hadn't happened we'd be at 1300 or something. In this case the person I was talking to was 'lucky'. We'll be back in 4 digits if not this weekend then early next week and you still won't have any coin.

Its always amusing so see some TA trolls (who claim to be a pro... with TA bs) posting some charts of the past to predict the future.

Funny i dont see any of them making a bank.

They don't seem to get the market is made up of humans or that real external events affect the market. To them people have no free will and external factors in the real world are irrelevant - all that matters are patterns. Ok there is some ta that actually happens i.e. a dead cat bounce is a real thing but that ta is based on human nature whereas all their ta is based on patterns. Him slagging me off for saying we'd be lucky to see triple digits is like saying to someone they were an idiot for not foreseeing 911 and the stockmarket crashing. I can't predict those events and neither can his stupid charts. All we can do is gauge market sentiment at a given time. It's these ta geniuses who think they can draw a few lines and world events won't affect them.

[Vigil]

Massive dump incoming, price is stabilizing and no buyers...

Its amazing how there are no buyers, yet the price is going up.. bids keep filling to the lower postions.. 900 coin sell wall moved 200$ back... your right, nothing to see here, move along.

And it has done this many times before crashing in just the last 12 hrs. The price was about to fall through the floor with no sign of stopping - eating thousands of bitcoins in under a couple minutes. The only reason we are sitting here is because Gox engine failed. we have barely moved from the rebound spot.

Not that you may be wrong this time, but you were wrong yesterday.   We did not follow the pattern back to about $1200 like you thought might be possible.   Gox failures tend to bring on crashes, not stop them.   Gox went offline for a day during the last crash, and when they came back online, the crash continued.   That this dip didn't continue as soon as Gox came back means something.   Far be it from me to predict what though, this is bitcoin after all.   It's true that we did not rebound a lot.   People are sitting on their money expecting lower prices.   There is a LOT of money waiting for lower prices, or did Gox withdrawls start working?

Who cares if I was wrong. I also left it open to what would happen after correctly predicting it would hit $10. I wasn't wrong yesterday, I was correct. It didn't follow the pattern because there were no buyers which is why I sold out this morning. But who cares whether I was wrong or right? I am just stating here that just because there are short-term buyers doesn't mean they will be there long enough to hold-off a crash. We are on a downward trend right now because the market for Bitcoin is thin at the moment.

[seriouscoin]

A chart I posted on one of Risto's threads the other day.

Uploaded by Drew at tradingview 4 Days ago. As a short term bear his comments on the situation made excellent sense to me.



The same chart with the current trading data filled in over time.

let me guess, you have buy orders in at 700.

pathetic

So a guy makes a trading chart with some pretty spot on predictions, backed up by some sound market analysis, I follow that and I'm pathetic?

Lets see what you were saying only 7 days ago:

Honestly, I think you'll be lucky if we see triple digits again. I suspect a big 'crash' around 1500 but not sure it'll crash a third.

Yeah I should have listened to you obviously.

Pathetic?...lol

Posted that on monday before china crisis. If that hadn't happened we'd be at 1300 or something. In this case the person I was talking to was 'lucky'. We'll be back in 4 digits if not this weekend then early next week and you still won't have any coin.

Its always amusing so see some TA trolls (who claim to be a pro... with TA bs) posting some charts of the past to predict the future.

Funny i dont see any of them making a bank.

Sorry I didn't see your claim to fame? What did you predict that was worth reading?

I predict you're a bear looking to buy back in lower. hence you're on a mission to spread more fears.... when noobs are fearful, you're greedy.

Now tell me, is my prediction closer to the truth?

[freethink2013]

If we come out of the weekend over 850 I'll be happy enough.

[Kj1]

where is all the choo choo now?

[seriouscoin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBLpx6gQtUU

this is no joke.
we are making a difference.
step back and look at the big picture you silly bears.

Great film - loved it - but I wonder if they're look at the week's takings this week and watching the price go nuts and tank.

If we turn farmers into screen watchers, we aren't helping!

Don't get me wrong, this is the future - but not with 20% fluctuations within hours and broken exchanges!

Did you actually watch the video?

LOL if merchants accepting btc, they dont hold btc otherwise they will be in currency business instead of their main business.

The farmers dont even know what is btc.... they just use it only as payment mechanism.

I want it to work - I just think exchanges need to be more stable - after Sheep and now yet another Gox screw up I have seen, I think it has to be a hindrance to adoption - someone has to take a hit if a crash happens.  

I wasn't dissing the situation, just wishing we had a better run marketplace - that would help people like this and the infrastructure to support it.

My point is we should stay away from btc price when we're talking about merchants adoption. Because no merchants are in business of currency trading.

However i do think we need better exchanges as right now, we got bunch of nerds operating exchanges.

[beaconpcguru]

Gox leaking market share every day. The last days of an era.

bitstamp     31.010%   45152.250   0.850 USD
mtgox*   30.000%   43688.600   0.871 USD
btce           29.750%   43320.360   0.880 USD

Seems that data is lagging too. Mtgox is less than halve of BTC-e bitcoin volume plus over 1 million litecoins as well
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/markets/info/

That includes all BTC pairs .. so not very accurate

That is exactly why it is very accurate because it includes all BTC pairs. Or is a Russian bought bitcoin somehow not a full bitcoin. Must it be bought with USD to be counted?

No, its not accurate because if I shuffle 10 bitcoins over there, trade 10 bitcoins for cash, buy some LTC and then trade it back to Bitcoin or vice versa each one of those transactions can count for as many pairs there are available (19 in this case) observing that the bitcoin traded simple in the BTC/USD category at a volume of ~30,000 means that 90,000 btc may or may not have been traded and or intermixed with any other pair including BTC/USD

[maz]

A chart I posted on one of Risto's threads the other day.

Uploaded by Drew at tradingview 4 Days ago. As a short term bear his comments on the situation made excellent sense to me.



The same chart with the current trading data filled in over time.

let me guess, you have buy orders in at 700.

pathetic

So a guy makes a trading chart with some pretty spot on predictions, backed up by some sound market analysis, I follow that and I'm pathetic?

Lets see what you were saying only 7 days ago:

Honestly, I think you'll be lucky if we see triple digits again. I suspect a big 'crash' around 1500 but not sure it'll crash a third.

Yeah I should have listened to you obviously.

Pathetic?...lol

Posted that on monday before china crisis. If that hadn't happened we'd be at 1300 or something. In this case the person I was talking to was 'lucky'. We'll be back in 4 digits if not this weekend then early next week and you still won't have any coin.

Its always amusing so see some TA trolls (who claim to be a pro... with TA bs) posting some charts of the past to predict the future.

Funny i dont see any of them making a bank.

Sorry I didn't see your claim to fame? What did you predict that was worth reading?

I predict you're a bear looking to buy back in lower. hence you're on a mission to spread more fears.... when noobs are fearful, you're greedy.

Now tell me, is my prediction closer to the truth?

Like I said earlier, I don't spread anything with the intention of manipulating others. To me that is childish and not worth my effort. There must be what 100 people that visit this thread daily? If i managed to make half of them sell it would probably move the market 10 dollars. Please don't be so simple minded to think that's why I post, because it's ridiculous.

If I was of that mind set I would be orchestrating DDOS attacks on the forum during the past 2 hours of activity, posting fake links of FUD on Reddit/Bitcoin and spamming the IRC channel with the FUD. But I'm not that type of person. I'm just on here for some good banter and the occasional facts from people.

[windjc]

Here's the deal. Everyone can post whatever TA they have. That's great. TA works. I like it.

But if we are going down and it looks like we are, the only thing that really matters is how much $$$ has entered the market that won't be coming out.  That's the bottom.

Category A
All the $$$ that can leave the market is from either
A. Speculators
B. Former believers who are now non-believers.

Category B
All the $$$ that is staying in the market
A. Second Market
B. Long Term Investors (including the VC community)
C. Believers

In 2011, the reason we went from $32 to BELOW the previous runup was SIMPLY that we didn't have more of Category B. In April 2013, the reason we never tested below the point that the rally started AND the reason we didn't test $50 again was we had more of Category B.

So how much of Category B do we have now?

A lot more I believe. Second Market has put tens of millions into the market. We have had an on rush of new bitcoin fanatics like never before. And more VC money has gone into and around the market.

So what's the absolute bottom of where we could potentially go?  $700? $500? $400? I don't know.

Although I strongly believe that we will not go down near where we started ($200). 

I figure $350 could be absolute bottom, but I do not think we go that low.

I think we probably have enough $$$ in the market that is staying in the market to stay above $500.

However, this is a TOTAL GUESS. As is anyone's at this point.

[beaconpcguru]

Massive dump incoming, price is stabilizing and no buyers...

Its amazing how there are no buyers, yet the price is going up.. bids keep filling to the lower postions.. 900 coin sell wall moved 200$ back... your right, nothing to see here, move along.

And it has done this many times before crashing in just the last 12 hrs. The price was about to fall through the floor with no sign of stopping - eating thousands of bitcoins in under a couple minutes. The only reason we are sitting here is because Gox engine failed. we have barely moved from the rebound spot.

You mean you were hoping that the price was going to crash through the floor while watching a single entity drop 5,000 coins in hope of causing a panic but instead of him being able to potentially influence the market he was instead robbed by MtGox of the opportunity to do so.

[kurious]

The problem is - the majority of us here are full fiat.

Look at Adam's vote?

If we all think it's worth a mint, we are just sitting on it and only buying the dips.  The consensus here is 'hold' that is all.

So who will take it higher - we aren't buying it up to 1500 10,000 (fill your own price in), we want everyone else to come in and do it!

Going up requires BUYERS.  They come from wider adoption, better utility and yep, good news.   Other than that we can't do much to make it happen, we are drawing charts we want other people to follow.

Ironic, no?  (and I speak as a bull)

[hmmmstrange]

do you really have to verify to get your coins off gox now?

Yeah, there's one girl on here who used an alias and can't get her coins off.

You can always get your wife to legally change her name to the alias she used. Just have to publish her new name in a news paper.

[seriouscoin]

A chart I posted on one of Risto's threads the other day.

Uploaded by Drew at tradingview 4 Days ago. As a short term bear his comments on the situation made excellent sense to me.



The same chart with the current trading data filled in over time.

let me guess, you have buy orders in at 700.

pathetic

So a guy makes a trading chart with some pretty spot on predictions, backed up by some sound market analysis, I follow that and I'm pathetic?

Lets see what you were saying only 7 days ago:

Honestly, I think you'll be lucky if we see triple digits again. I suspect a big 'crash' around 1500 but not sure it'll crash a third.

Yeah I should have listened to you obviously.

Pathetic?...lol

Posted that on monday before china crisis. If that hadn't happened we'd be at 1300 or something. In this case the person I was talking to was 'lucky'. We'll be back in 4 digits if not this weekend then early next week and you still won't have any coin.

Its always amusing so see some TA trolls (who claim to be a pro... with TA bs) posting some charts of the past to predict the future.

Funny i dont see any of them making a bank.

Sorry I didn't see your claim to fame? What did you predict that was worth reading?

I predict you're a bear looking to buy back in lower. hence you're on a mission to spread more fears.... when noobs are fearful, you're greedy.

Now tell me, is my prediction closer to the truth?

Like I said earlier, I don't spread anything with the intention of manipulating others. To me that is childish and not worth my effort. There must be what 100 people that visit this thread daily? If i managed to make half of them sell it would probably move the market 10 dollars. Please don't be so simple minded to think that's why I post, because it's ridiculous.

If I was of that mind set I would be orchestrating DDOS attacks on the forum during the past 2 hours of activity, posting fake links of FUD on Reddit/Bitcoin and spamming the IRC channel with the FUD. But I'm not that type of person. I'm just on here for some good banter and the occasional facts from people.

But you posted a meaningless charts of the past?

Listen if TA was so right, then there was no such thing as Chaos. TA can only explain the past market. Its not a tool to tell you where the market will be...

Good luck to you.

[freethink2013]

A chart I posted on one of Risto's threads the other day.

Uploaded by Drew at tradingview 4 Days ago. As a short term bear his comments on the situation made excellent sense to me.



The same chart with the current trading data filled in over time.

let me guess, you have buy orders in at 700.

pathetic

So a guy makes a trading chart with some pretty spot on predictions, backed up by some sound market analysis, I follow that and I'm pathetic?

Lets see what you were saying only 7 days ago:

Honestly, I think you'll be lucky if we see triple digits again. I suspect a big 'crash' around 1500 but not sure it'll crash a third.

Yeah I should have listened to you obviously.

Pathetic?...lol

Posted that on monday before china crisis. If that hadn't happened we'd be at 1300 or something. In this case the person I was talking to was 'lucky'. We'll be back in 4 digits if not this weekend then early next week and you still won't have any coin.

Its always amusing so see some TA trolls (who claim to be a pro... with TA bs) posting some charts of the past to predict the future.

Funny i dont see any of them making a bank.

Sorry I didn't see your claim to fame? What did you predict that was worth reading?

I predict you're a bear looking to buy back in lower. hence you're on a mission to spread more fears.... when noobs are fearful, you're greedy.

Now tell me, is my prediction closer to the truth?

Like I said earlier, I don't spread anything with the intention of manipulating others. To me that is childish and not worth my effort. There must be what 100 people that visit this thread daily? If i managed to make half of them sell it would probably move the market 10 dollars. Please don't be so simple minded to think that's why I post, because it's ridiculous.

If I was of that mind set I would be orchestrating DDOS attacks on the forum during the past 2 hours of activity, posting fake links of FUD on Reddit/Bitcoin and spamming the IRC channel with the FUD. But I'm not that type of person. I'm just on here for some good banter and the occasional facts from people.

fyi I'm glad you're on the thread. Nothing personal with my posts at all. Play on playa

[Adrian-x]

One thing I never wrote here, didn't want to spread bad news...

Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.

It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.

Hahhaha, welcome to Wall street. What a joke  

Well, it might as well be a joke, I didn't pay much attention to it at that time (let's say unfortunately, I could make few coins id I did but obviously never would do on such kind of info) but after things went as they went I thought about it today and it made more sense.

Not sure only what kind of volume platforms that have that kind of trading had recently, not sure if that volume could be subscribed to big guys.

Or you could have lost it all... please talk about hindsight.

To all the noobs, when some guys tell you the market will crash.... hes either right or wrong and the chance is as much as flipping a coin because hes clueless as you.

Of course, that's why I said I would never act on such info from some nobody who was told by nobody who was told by nobody.

But this time it looks there is a chance it was a genuine info.

There are going to be a lot of "I told you so's" on Monday
hell even those who just herd about Bitcoin knew to sell.

The truth is do you know when to buy?
Personally I always buy at the top and 6 months later cherish the bargain  

[niothor]

The problem is - the majority of us here are full fiat.

Look at Adam's vote?

If we all think it's worth a mint, we are just sitting on it and only buying the dips.  The consensus here is 'hold' that is all.

So who will take it higher - we aren't buying it up to 1500 10,000 (fill your own price in), we want everyone else to come in and do it!

Going up requires BUYERS.  They come from wider adoption, better utility and yep, good news.   Other than that we can't do much to make it happen, we are drawing charts we want other people to follow.

Ironic, no?  (and I speak as a bull)

Where do you get your numbers?