Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[SheHadMANHands]

This has been one helluva week and a half..

Bitcoin, you could say, is one helluva drug.

[freethink2013]

tbh as corrections go, it's a bit of a relief. I'd prefer us to have corrected to four figures rather than three but seeing as I bought at two figures I can't complain.

[rpietila]

One thing I never wrote here, didn't want to spread bad news...

Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.

It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.

Hahhaha, welcome to Wall street. What a joke 

If that is true, it shows that there IS indeed a limit to stupidity and that can be found on Wall Street. Shorting bitcoin.  LOL

[seleme]

One thing I never wrote here, didn't want to spread bad news...

Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.

It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.

Hahhaha, welcome to Wall street. What a joke  

Well, it might as well be a joke, I didn't pay much attention to it at that time (let's say unfortunately, I could make few coins id I did but obviously never would do on such kind of info) but after things went as they went I thought about it today and it made more sense.

Not sure only what kind of volume platforms that have that kind of trading had recently, not sure if that volume could be subscribed to big guys.

Or you could have lost it all... please talk about hindsight.

To all the noobs, when some guys tell you the market will crash.... hes either right or wrong and the chance is as much as flipping a coin because hes clueless as you.

Of course, that's why I said I would never act on such info from some nobody who was told by nobody who was told by nobody.

But this time it looks there is a chance it was a genuine info.

There are going to be a lot of "I told you so's" on Monday
hell even those who just herd about Bitcoin knew to sell.

The truth is do you know when to buy?
Personally I always buy at the top and 6 months later cherish the bargain  

It's not about this weekend, that was week ago. Only permabears were bears at that point, bullish sentiments were huge then.

Don't really care about "I told you so" gang, I trade for my own pocket, not theirs, so if I make it bad, I do it for my own bad and vice versa, that's not their business.

[adamstgBit]

There are going to be a lot of "I told you so's" on Monday
hell even those who just herd about Bitcoin knew to sell.

The truth is do you know when to buy?
Personally I always buy at the top and 6 months later cherish the bargain  

that will be me, and ill get more subscribers  

[kurious]

The problem is - the majority of us here are full fiat.

Look at Adam's vote?

If we all think it's worth a mint, we are just sitting on it and only buying the dips.  The consensus here is 'hold' that is all.

So who will take it higher - we aren't buying it up to 1500 10,000 (fill your own price in), we want everyone else to come in and do it!

Going up requires BUYERS.  They come from wider adoption, better utility and yep, good news.   Other than that we can't do much to make it happen, we are drawing charts we want other people to follow.

Ironic, no?  (and I speak as a bull)

Where do you get your numbers?

I am talking about 'us lot' not being what drives the market (even though we are 80% bulls).  Growth of positive sentiment does that, and new cash entry.   I think that is self-evident, no?

[Adrian-x]

One thing I never wrote here, didn't want to spread bad news...

Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.

It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.

Hahhaha, welcome to Wall street. What a joke 

If that is true, it shows that there IS indeed a limit to stupidity and that can be found on Wall Street. Shorting bitcoin.  LOL

I LOL with you Bitcoin is finite. Once you short you are short.
Anything above $220 leave me secure. In Bitcoin 's astro chart we will cross into the new year under $1000 and then have fun. Week hands need some shaking.

[Coinseeker]

Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.

It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.

It's totally possible.  There is a story on CNN about it now.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/12/05/betting-against-bitcoin-bubble/?iid=HP_Highlight

If you're paying attention, it's not the worst bet in the world.  We had a better chance at correcting than going to $1500, even before the China news.  Buying pressure was drying up, sentiment was changing.  China likely was just the straw.

[seriouscoin]

One thing I never wrote here, didn't want to spread bad news...

Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.

It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.

Hahhaha, welcome to Wall street. What a joke 

If that is true, it shows that there IS indeed a limit to stupidity and that can be found on Wall Street. Shorting bitcoin.  LOL

I'm sure it is as true as Miley Cyrus being a virgin.

[ChartBuddy]

[rpietila]

Here's the deal. Everyone can post whatever TA they have. That's great. TA works. I like it.

But if we are going down and it looks like we are, the only thing that really matters is how much $$$ has entered the market that won't be coming out.  That's the bottom.

Category A
All the $$$ that can leave the market is from either
A. Speculators
B. Former believers who are now non-believers.

Category B
All the $$$ that is staying in the market
A. Second Market
B. Long Term Investors (including the VC community)
C. Believers

In 2011, the reason we went from $32 to BELOW the previous runup was SIMPLY that we didn't have more of Category B. In April 2013, the reason we never tested below the point that the rally started AND the reason we didn't test $50 again was we had more of Category B.

So how much of Category B do we have now?

A lot more I believe. Second Market has put tens of millions into the market. We have had an on rush of new bitcoin fanatics like never before. And more VC money has gone into and around the market.

So what's the absolute bottom of where we could potentially go?  $700? $500? $400? I don't know.

Although I strongly believe that we will not go down near where we started ($200). 

I figure $350 could be absolute bottom, but I do not think we go that low.

I think we probably have enough $$$ in the market that is staying in the market to stay above $500.

However, this is a TOTAL GUESS. As is anyone's at this point.

+1.

But why feel bad? I made like 22,000mBTC trading today. It is not much, but a decent daytrade with little risk. It is not 15,000% of my stash compounded over 4 months like some here seem to have made. But it's something. And I have more fiat and more bitcoins than 12 hours ago. That feels good.

[seleme]

Last Saturday guy on McxNow chat wrote that he got SMS from his best friend who knew he is into Bitcoins. He told him he is sitting with some Chicago Wall Street guy and he mentioned him Bitcoin and that his friend is into it. Wall Street guy told him to contact him and say to get out of Bitcoin as soon as possible as on Monday some guys are going to start betting against Bitcoin shorting it.

It looked fishy at the moment and even that guy from McxNow didn't pay lot of attention to it based on what he was saying but less than 24 hours after first flash crash happened and we were on top of bullish sentiments at that point.

It's totally possible.  There is a story on CNN about it now.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/12/05/betting-against-bitcoin-bubble/?iid=HP_Highlight

If you're paying attention, it's not the worst bet in the world.  We had a better chance at correcting than going to $1500, even before the China news.  Buying pressure was drying up, sentiment was changing.  China likely was just the straw.

Yeah, I've read that. But the guy is bringing the same issues that I find as problem to do it on large scale - it's hard to find a satisfying profit for average Wall Street guy on Bitcoin option platform(s).

[TiagoTiago]

I don't see we entering 2014 with less than 4 digits (USD).

But if we do, be prepared for some big upward jumps as the price tries to catch up with reality.

[manfred]

Gox leaking market share every day. The last days of an era.

bitstamp     31.010%   45152.250   0.850 USD
mtgox*   30.000%   43688.600   0.871 USD
btce           29.750%   43320.360   0.880 USD

Seems that data is lagging too. Mtgox is less than halve of BTC-e bitcoin volume plus over 1 million litecoins as well
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/markets/info/

That includes all BTC pairs .. so not very accurate

That is exactly why it is very accurate because it includes all BTC pairs. Or is a Russian bought bitcoin somehow not a full bitcoin. Must it be bought with USD to be counted?

No, its not accurate because if I shuffle 10 bitcoins over there, trade 10 bitcoins for cash, buy some LTC and then trade it back to Bitcoin or vice versa each one of those transactions can count for as many pairs there are available (19 in this case) observing that the bitcoin traded simple in the BTC/USD category at a volume of ~30,000 means that 90,000 btc may or may not have been traded and or intermixed with any other pair including BTC/USD

What the trading pair is does not matter, if i pay for my bitcoin with bananas it is still a trade. Same as with any other trading pair. If i choose to buy a bitcoin with a bunch of peercoins it still counts and i still pay the fees.

[seleme]

Here's the deal. Everyone can post whatever TA they have. That's great. TA works. I like it.

But if we are going down and it looks like we are, the only thing that really matters is how much $$$ has entered the market that won't be coming out.  That's the bottom.

Category A
All the $$$ that can leave the market is from either
A. Speculators
B. Former believers who are now non-believers.

Category B
All the $$$ that is staying in the market
A. Second Market
B. Long Term Investors (including the VC community)
C. Believers

In 2011, the reason we went from $32 to BELOW the previous runup was SIMPLY that we didn't have more of Category B. In April 2013, the reason we never tested below the point that the rally started AND the reason we didn't test $50 again was we had more of Category B.

So how much of Category B do we have now?

A lot more I believe. Second Market has put tens of millions into the market. We have had an on rush of new bitcoin fanatics like never before. And more VC money has gone into and around the market.

So what's the absolute bottom of where we could potentially go?  $700? $500? $400? I don't know.

Although I strongly believe that we will not go down near where we started ($200). 

I figure $350 could be absolute bottom, but I do not think we go that low.

I think we probably have enough $$$ in the market that is staying in the market to stay above $500.

However, this is a TOTAL GUESS. As is anyone's at this point.

+1.

But why feel bad? I made like 22,000mBTC trading today. It is not much, but a decent daytrade with little risk. It is not 15,000% of my stash compounded over 4 months like some here seem to have made. But it's something. And I have more fiat and more bitcoins than 12 hours ago. That feels good.

Oh really, and what about buy & hold, pump & dump scams etc..

[seanneko]

+1.

But why feel bad? I made like 22,000mBTC trading today. It is not much, but a decent daytrade with little risk. It is not 15,000% of my stash compounded over 4 months like some here seem to have made. But it's something. And I have more fiat and more bitcoins than 12 hours ago. That feels good.

You mean you didn't turn BTC7 into BTC300? Pfft. This forum lead me to believe that increasing your BTC holdings by 43x was standard and even an idiot could do it.

[seleme]

+1.

But why feel bad? I made like 22,000mBTC trading today. It is not much, but a decent daytrade with little risk. It is not 15,000% of my stash compounded over 4 months like some here seem to have made. But it's something. And I have more fiat and more bitcoins than 12 hours ago. That feels good.

You mean you didn't turn BTC7 into BTC300? Pfft. This forum lead me to believe that increasing your BTC holdings by 43x was standard and even an idiot could do it.

Not far away from that to be honest.

Only in last week there were 10 alts that went up 500-1000%. Most of them went at least 300% up. And Bitcoin went up 800% in less than 2 months with several 30% dips.

Bit of luck to ride some of those rallies and dips, specially alt ones as they are much easier, and you're there. Unfortunately, I missed all but 1 alt rally recent week as I wasn't expecting such mental gains on some pretty unknown coins. And even one I didn't miss I still didn't turn to BTC profit (though did take what I invested in it) as I bought on historical bottom and went long in that alt (DGC)

[DougTanner]

China is waking up and China is not happy 

[Mirsad]

Go down sucker 
Love that china spirit.

Buy like maniacs and sell like retards 

[seleme]

Go down sucker 
Love that china spirit.

Buy like maniacs and sell like Mirsad 

Fixed that one for you.