Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[EuroTrash]

but seriously forget about speculation, how the F$#%& people keep buying into CEX.IO and others even join the pool ? does this new miners even spend time to get educated about the mechanism and concept of Bitcoin's protocol ?

tragedy of the commons maybe

[1713981801]

1713981801

[1713981801]

1713981801

[1713981801]

1713981801

[Dichou]

http://thenextweb.com/asia/2014/01/09/singapore-bucks-the-trend-and-welcomes-bitcoin-laying-out-tax-rules-for-the-virtual-currency/#!rM905

good news after good news

[mmitech]

but now, who knows? right? GHASH COULD BE DOUBLE SPENDING AS WE SPEAK dun dun dunnn...

am i doing it right, guys? the whole panic thing?

lol   

in all seriousness, i do recognize that it's a major issue, but i'm confident in the bitcoin community as a whole and the incentives built into the protocol. there is far too much at stake for miners to really be that oblivious and shortsighted to simply not reorganize themselves in order to SAVE BITCOIN (!), and even if they don't, as many have pointed out, outside of some third-party conspiracy against the project, GHASH isn't going to sabotage their own reputation and profits -- the incentives just don't line up.

that being said, the alternating waves of panic and euphoria in this thread are almost frightening in their magnitude...

--arepo

I know, which makes me more confident about this community , the sub Reddit looks like this now

[justusranvier]

GHASH isn't going to sabotage their own reputation and profits -- the incentives just don't line up.

Don't be so sure about that. The problem is Wall Street and the mindset that it has spread.

Right now speculators are buying mining shares on cex.io. They don't care if they are actually overpaying for their shares because they don't give a shit about the NPV of those shares - all they care about is being able to sell higher than the bought (greater fool theory).

A lot of money is being thrown into Bitcoin mining by people who neither know nor care what they are actually doing.

[arepo]

GHASH isn't going to sabotage their own reputation and profits -- the incentives just don't line up.

Don't be so sure about that. The problem is Wall Street and the mindset that it has spread.

Right now speculators are buying mining shares on cex.io. They don't care if they are actually overpaying for their shares because they don't give a shit about the NPV of those shares - all they care about is being able to sell higher than the bought (greater fool theory).

A lot of money is being thrown into Bitcoin mining by people who neither know nor care what they are actually doing.

i understand this much, that there are a lot of people who have interests that simply don't intersect the interests of the bitcoin community, who are involved by proxy in this or other ways. what i don't see, is how that would translate into an interest to sabotage the project.

while the ramifications of their actions might set the stage for that particular pool to sabotage the project, there still needs to be a malicious party to actually carry out the act. what you're saying is perhaps we cannot avoid a 51% situation in the short term because the incentives to prevent this are broken, but if GHash won't try to attack the blockchain, while the pool will become a target for anyone who does, i don't think anything terrible will happen immediately, and hopefully the savvy members of the community will have enough time to orchestrate a reorganization of the mining sector.

even if the obliviousness of speculators involved in cex.io really does result in a tragedy of the commons scenario, the returns are self-limiting. if they threaten the integrity of the whole project, no one profits, and the scheme collapses. i doubt bitcoin will be utterly destroyed, or even close, at this point, and so the worst that could happen would be a short period of blockchain instability that will be resolved after the panic dissolves the mining majority.

that being said, i really do not feel i know enough about the technical side of bitcoin to be sure that my understanding is accurate in this case. do the above arguments sound reasonable? from what i understand, we as a community should be able to handle this with little difficulty.

--arepo

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[justusranvier]

even if the obliviousness of speculators involved in cex.io really does result in a tragedy of the commons scenario, the returns are self-limiting. if they threaten the integrity of the whole project, no one profits, and the scheme collapses. i doubt bitcoin will be utterly destroyed, or even close, at this point, and so the worst that could happen would be a short period of blockchain instability that will be resolved after the panic dissolves the mining majority.

Traders who have spent their whole careers speculating with other people's money don't care about the long term viability of anything.

All they care about is whether they can sell anything they just bought for more than they paid for it. That is literally the only question that exists in their world.

These people can cause a lot of damage. When they're given access to unlimited taxpayer money (overtly or covertly) they can destroy the world's financial system.

Eventually Bitcoin will siphon away their ability to do this, assuming it survives through the short term.

[oda.krell]

everybody stay calm, we're right on track

lawl @ triangle trying to break out on nighttime volume :D

be patient guys, one more tiny swing down then breakout in the morning ;)

https://i.imgur.com/9lQPqF6.png

just tracing out a nice bullish consolidation... see you at the top of the wedge!

--arepo

Interesting... seems you're actually more bullish than me. That's a first :D

(1) I see a significant discrepancy between gox and stamp, the former pulling up, the latter down. Have a harder time getting a picture from the other exchanges. (side note: yes, prices are highly correlated, but that doesn't mean a trend cannot form independently first on one exchange before it "infects" another)

(2) volume, money flow and order books, bid/ask don't look good to me. the latter trending slightly down, not strong enough to be sure, but not a positive sign either.

(3) I said it before, but I see stopping the latest drop above the 30d EMA is a very positive sign. I am looking at a (somewhat speculative) uptrend channel as well, and there's a chance we're in it still. That's the good news, IMO.

(4) With respect to where we are compared to the latest drop, however (on a narrower time frame), I see price pulling down more than up.

Apologies to the general audience if that sounds like useless analysis to you :P (and sloppy, as well... no graphs to back up what I say, huh?) I would argue that concluding there is no clear conclusion to be arrived at at the moment is a valid result as well. Although I'd be happy to be wrong and arepo to be right, by seeing an upward breakout soon.

[mmitech]

even if the obliviousness of speculators involved in cex.io really does result in a tragedy of the commons scenario, the returns are self-limiting. if they threaten the integrity of the whole project, no one profits, and the scheme collapses. i doubt bitcoin will be utterly destroyed, or even close, at this point, and so the worst that could happen would be a short period of blockchain instability that will be resolved after the panic dissolves the mining majority.

Traders who have spent their whole careers speculating with other people's money don't care about the long term viability of anything.

All they care about is whether they can sell anything they just bought for more than they paid for it. That is literally the only question that exists in their world.

These people can cause a lot of damage. When they're given access to unlimited taxpayer money (overtly or covertly) they can destroy the world's financial system.

Eventually Bitcoin will siphon away their ability to do this, assuming it survives through the short term.

I just signed in to CEX.IO to tell people on chat about the threat, and no wonder that this is happening when people say "Ghash.IO have only 4 terahashs of Ghashs", and " you are spreading FUD to buy Ghs"  holy fuck, they trashed me right away, these people have no Idea what they are doing, if they knew what they were doing they would simply buy a physical miner and mine at home and save half  of what they are paying now!!! but as you said before they don't give a shit, they are just speculators, I can even bet that they even don't understand how the fuck Bitcoin Protocol works...

[arepo]

(1) I see a significant discrepancy between gox and stamp, the former pulling up, the latter down. Have a harder time getting a picture from the other exchanges. (side note: yes, prices are highly correlated, but that doesn't mean a trend cannot form independently first on one exchange before it "infects" another)

both gox and stamp are tracing out the same ascending triangle formation, so i don't think the direction of the small movements within these bounds are very significant, correlated or otherwise.

(2) volume, money flow and order books, bid/ask don't look good to me. the latter trending slightly down, not strong enough to be sure, but not a positive sign either.

yes, the large volume on the last movement down within the consolidation pattern threw a number of 2-hour indicators bearish, which is of slight concern to me, as it could very well invalidate the model i posted above. it has instilled doubts at the very least and caused me to reevaluate the risk of my position.

(3) I said it before, but I see stopping the latest drop above the 30d EMA is a very positive sign. I am looking at a (somewhat speculative) uptrend channel as well, and there's a chance we're in it still. That's the good news, IMO.

here i have to disagree with you, in that even though we are resting on this support i think the chances of continuing the uptrend after this are very slim. the larger picture still suggests that we need more capitulation from the bubble pattern before we can really see sustained growth, and this looks very much like a mid-term top formation. if you look a page back or so in this thread, the model im following is actually not bullish at all i'm just swing-trading right now and i believe the very next movement is a small breakout up into a bearish wedge.

(4) With respect to where we are compared to the latest drop, however (on a narrower time frame), I see price pulling down more than up.

interesting! you are bearish short-term, bullish mid-term, and i am just the opposite! i appreciate the dialogue, and i guess we shall see

--arepo

[micalith]

even if the obliviousness of speculators involved in cex.io really does result in a tragedy of the commons scenario, the returns are self-limiting. if they threaten the integrity of the whole project, no one profits, and the scheme collapses. i doubt bitcoin will be utterly destroyed, or even close, at this point, and so the worst that could happen would be a short period of blockchain instability that will be resolved after the panic dissolves the mining majority.

Traders who have spent their whole careers speculating with other people's money don't care about the long term viability of anything.

All they care about is whether they can sell anything they just bought for more than they paid for it. That is literally the only question that exists in their world.

These people can cause a lot of damage. When they're given access to unlimited taxpayer money (overtly or covertly) they can destroy the world's financial system.

Eventually Bitcoin will siphon away their ability to do this, assuming it survives through the short term.

I just signed in to CEX.IO to tell people on chat about the threat, and no wonder that this is happening when people say "Ghash.IO have only 4 terahashs of Ghashs", and " you are spreading FUD to buy Ghs"  holy fuck, they trashed me right away, these people have no Idea what they are doing, if they knew what they were doing they would simply buy a physical miner and mine at home and save half  of what they are paying now!!! but as you said before they don't give a shit, they are just speculators, I can even bet that they even don't understand how the fuck Bitcoin Protocol works...

Oh well. As we approach '51%' levels, BTC price will drop as people panic sell, causing miner stock to drop inevitably, and they'll learn their lesson

[arepo]

even if the obliviousness of speculators involved in cex.io really does result in a tragedy of the commons scenario, the returns are self-limiting. if they threaten the integrity of the whole project, no one profits, and the scheme collapses. i doubt bitcoin will be utterly destroyed, or even close, at this point, and so the worst that could happen would be a short period of blockchain instability that will be resolved after the panic dissolves the mining majority.

Traders who have spent their whole careers speculating with other people's money don't care about the long term viability of anything.

All they care about is whether they can sell anything they just bought for more than they paid for it. That is literally the only question that exists in their world.

These people can cause a lot of damage. When they're given access to unlimited taxpayer money (overtly or covertly) they can destroy the world's financial system.

Eventually Bitcoin will siphon away their ability to do this, assuming it survives through the short term.

I just signed in to CEX.IO to tell people on chat about the threat, and no wonder that this is happening when people say "Ghash.IO have only 4 terahashs of Ghashs", and " you are spreading FUD to buy Ghs"  holy fuck, they trashed me right away, these people have no Idea what they are doing, if they knew what they were doing they would simply buy a physical miner and mine at home and save half  of what they are paying now!!! but as you said before they don't give a shit, they are just speculators, I can even bet that they even don't understand how the fuck Bitcoin Protocol works...

Oh well. As we approach '51%' levels, BTC price will drop as people panic sell, causing miner stock to drop inevitably, and they'll learn their lesson

doubt we'll get there at all. migrations are already happening if /r/bitcoin is any indication.

[iarsenaux]

http://www.coindesk.com/singapore-government-how-we-intend-tax-bitcoin/

Sell now. Cry later. lol 

[Ivanhoe]

And it begins

[micalith]

even if the obliviousness of speculators involved in cex.io really does result in a tragedy of the commons scenario, the returns are self-limiting. if they threaten the integrity of the whole project, no one profits, and the scheme collapses. i doubt bitcoin will be utterly destroyed, or even close, at this point, and so the worst that could happen would be a short period of blockchain instability that will be resolved after the panic dissolves the mining majority.

Traders who have spent their whole careers speculating with other people's money don't care about the long term viability of anything.

All they care about is whether they can sell anything they just bought for more than they paid for it. That is literally the only question that exists in their world.

These people can cause a lot of damage. When they're given access to unlimited taxpayer money (overtly or covertly) they can destroy the world's financial system.

Eventually Bitcoin will siphon away their ability to do this, assuming it survives through the short term.

I just signed in to CEX.IO to tell people on chat about the threat, and no wonder that this is happening when people say "Ghash.IO have only 4 terahashs of Ghashs", and " you are spreading FUD to buy Ghs"  holy fuck, they trashed me right away, these people have no Idea what they are doing, if they knew what they were doing they would simply buy a physical miner and mine at home and save half  of what they are paying now!!! but as you said before they don't give a shit, they are just speculators, I can even bet that they even don't understand how the fuck Bitcoin Protocol works...

Oh well. As we approach '51%' levels, BTC price will drop as people panic sell, causing miner stock to drop inevitably, and they'll learn their lesson

doubt we'll get there at all. migrations are already happening if /r/bitcoin is any indication.

Yes, this seems likely the case on this occasion. We'll see over the next couple of days

[N12]

Enjoy your deflating currency.

[Jren]

And it begins

http://static.movember.com/uploads/2013/posts/36a/36a250c53df2689dbe3df8100c818d01-525f0411b9401.jpg

The greatest crash of our time

[medialab101]

Did I miss something... what's this sell-off?

[justusranvier]

Did I miss something... what's this sell-off?

cex.io and ghash.io broke Bitcoin.

Not really, but that's what the headlines say right now.

[N12]

Did I miss something... what's this sell-off?

That's the result of the Bitcoin cultists' delusions and lies shattering about what Bitcoin is at the current stage.

At some point, the cognitive dissonance becomes too hard to bear.