Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[8up]

Mt. Gox website down a the moment?

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[pietje]

I love the new fibonacci retractment feature on bitcoinwisdom:

Yea i just spotted it too. Pretty nice features added. Also including regular lines.
And why is stamp suddenly so much higer then btce?

[fotosonics]

What is this other than bots at work



... they are still buying at .011 ... maybe at least a hundred or 200 orders at the same time, all at exactly the same price...

[arepo]

we need to see some serious volume either tonight or early morning tomorrow or this "bullish" breakout is looking very bearish indeed...

Can you give some more details to your assessment?

thought i was clear enough, but let me try. even though we broke out of the price range of the triangle consolidation pattern, we didn't see a volume spike. this could be a false breakout, which might suddenly reverse on high volume, or we broke out into a larger consolidation pattern like a rising wedge, which would also be bearish.

basically, unless we see some high volume buying pressure soon, these prices are likely not going to last.

i'm thinking it's a wedge. (diagram slightly outdated)

--arepo

[seljo]

What is this other than bots at work



... they are still buying at .011 ... maybe at least a hundred or 200 orders at the same time, all at exactly the same price...

I would call it cheating just like bots in q3a, ut or cs we need punkbuster or smth or just no bots exchange  

[T.Stuart]

... basically, unless we see some high volume buying pressure soon, these prices are likely not going to last.

--arepo

Over the past three weeks time and time again the volume thing has been tripping up those who continue to watch it as if we were back last summer.

These prices not likely to last? So what are we going to drop: $40? $200? Any ideas?

[windjc]

we need to see some serious volume either tonight or early morning tomorrow or this "bullish" breakout is looking very bearish indeed...

Can you give some more details to your assessment?

thought i was clear enough, but let me try. even though we broke out of the price range of the triangle consolidation pattern, we didn't see a volume spike. this could be a false breakout, which might suddenly reverse on high volume, or we broke out into a larger consolidation pattern like a rising wedge, which would also be bearish.

basically, unless we see some high volume buying pressure soon, these prices are likely not going to last.

i'm thinking it's a wedge. (diagram slightly outdated)

--arepo

How much of a volume spike would we need to see?  High compared to what exactly?

For instance, down volume is almost always higher as it seems to always have more action both ways. Buy volume sometimes is low because it has no real resistance.

So, looking at Houbi, which is what the other exchanges are mocking right now, the volume on the green breakout candles was lower than the last sharp move down volume, lower than the final move up push, BUT higher than the multi-day rise preceding the final push up.

So, what does it need to "spike" in relation to?

[TERA]

0.0111 is the new 0.01

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[arepo]

So, what does it need to "spike" in relation to?

sorry for the lack of context.

===

@BITSTAMP


https://i.imgur.com/tRJqA3p.png

===

in order to confirm a "breakout" from a triangle consolidation pattern, we need to see a volume spike that is at least as large as the largest volume inside of the shape. we still see decreasing volume, which suggests we are still consolidating, meaning that the market still has not decided a direction in which to move. the bearish scenario would be a retest of the $765 low.

i have a feeling this curious low-volume "breakout" has something to do with the fact that we have not broken out of the triangle consolidation pattern on gox yet.

Over the past three weeks time and time again the volume thing has been tripping up those who continue to watch it as if we were back last summer.

i'm going to start calling you T "unsubstantiated claims" Stuart. i think its quite becoming

--arepo

[windjc]

So, what does it need to "spike" in relation to?

sorry for the lack of context.

===

@BITSTAMP


https://i.imgur.com/tRJqA3p.png

===

in order to confirm a "breakout" from a triangle consolidation pattern, we need to see a volume spike that is at least as large as the largest volume inside of the shape. we still see decreasing volume, which suggests we are still consolidating, meaning that the market still has not decided a direction in which to move. the bearish scenario would be a retest of the $765 low.

i have a feeling this curious low-volume "breakout" has something to do with the fact that we have not broken out of the triangle consolidation pattern on gox yet.

Over the past three weeks time and time again the volume thing has been tripping up those who continue to watch it as if we were back last summer.

i'm going to start calling you T "unsubstantiated claims" Stuart. i think its quite becoming

--arepo

Right. But Houbi did have higher volume on the breakout than on the consolidation. And its leading the markets. Stamp is literally following it lock, step and barrel - move for move. Gox not so much.

So if the leader confirms volume I wonder if that does not indicate a potential more significant bullish move?

[pietje]

Right. But Houbi did have higher volume on the breakout than on the consolidation. And its leading the markets. Stamp is literally following it lock, step and barrel - move for move. Gox not so much.

So if the leader confirms volume I wonder if that does not indicate a potential more significant bullish move?

This still worries me a bit. If china is still leading the markets, what will happen at the 31th?
I was hoping china was out of the picture by now, which was the case the last weeks i guess. At least Huobi wasnt leading.

[T.Stuart]

Over the past three weeks time and time again the volume thing has been tripping up those who continue to watch it as if we were back last summer.

i'm going to start calling you T "unsubstantiated claims" Stuart. i think its quite becoming

--arepo

I'm not actually talking about you in particular Arepo. I can't be bothered to go back over three weeks digging up every time someone said there would be a "last leg down" because just look at that "low volume", etc. You know what I'm talking about.

[arepo]

Right. But Houbi did have higher volume on the breakout than on the consolidation. And its leading the markets. Stamp is literally following it lock, step and barrel - move for move. Gox not so much.

So if the leader confirms volume I wonder if that does not indicate a potential more significant bullish move?

ah yes, i see. that is bullish indeed. the decoupling of the markets is a strange and confounding thing, though. i'd say it's certainly less bullish than a proper breakout on gox and stamp, as well. and of course, this is only bullish micro-term, because the bearish wedge is still a possibility, depending on price action today. if we can't break above the resistance we're currently pushing, we could still retest Wednesday's low.

[mmitech]

good morning guys, I was reading posts from few pages back to this last page and people are talking about the low volume and how can it effect the price in a way that it will go down, I cant help my self but to notice that the support is growing both on mtgox and Bitstamp, there is a real huge support, people opening limit orders thinking that there will be a small drop that will fulfill their orders.

this last month was one of the most interesting ones, less people execute market orders and more people contribute to the book order with their bids, I think we did create some kind of behavior "the price is going down" so most people feel more comfortable with listing low bids than instantly buying.

[arepo]

I'm not actually talking about you in particular Arepo. I can't be bothered to go back over three weeks digging up every time someone said there would be a "last leg down" because just look at that "low volume", etc. You know what I'm talking about.

i wasn't taking it personally, at all

a brief overview of your posts in the last three weeks shows that volume is one of your least-discussed data, actually. you prefer it far less than news, of course, which must be a superior trading signal based on your confidence in your various assertions.

as for a 'last leg down' in reference to the repercussions of the December crash, i wouldn't rule it out just yet...

--arepo

[windjc]

good morning guys, I was reading posts from few pages back to this last page and people are talking about the low volume and how can it effect the price in a way that it will go down, I cant help my self but to notice that the support is growing both on mtgox and Bitstamp, there is a real huge support, people opening limit orders thinking that there will be a small drop that will fulfill their orders.

this last month was one of the most interesting ones, less people execute market orders and more people contribute to the book order with their bids, I think we did create some kind of behavior "the price is going down" so most people feel more comfortable with listing low bids than instantly buying.

I tend to agree with this sentiment. That is why I believe when the market sentiment truly starts to believe that we are going to ATHs that there is going to be a mad dash to get back into the market at all costs. I don't think that time is now, or even in the next few weeks perhaps, but that day is coming.

[spooderman]

http://blogs.reuters.com/edward-hadas/2014/01/08/an-early-obituary-for-bitcoin/ the FUD is strong with this one.

[F-bernanke]

http://blogs.reuters.com/edward-hadas/2014/01/08/an-early-obituary-for-bitcoin/ the FUD is strong with this one.

At least they can feel better now they missed the train... piece of crap.

[seljo]

http://blogs.reuters.com/edward-hadas/2014/01/08/an-early-obituary-for-bitcoin/ the FUD is strong with this one.

At least they can feel better now they missed the train... piece of crap.

He indeed does look like Darth Fud.