Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RicePicker]

I really don't mind the market going up or down. I don't trade. But this drop and this selling is just stupid. There is just no reason for it. I'm still pretty sure it's 90% pure panic. Based on nothing.

You do realize you can say the same thing for when the price rises $100 in one night. Its pure panic buying and its buying based on nothing.

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[1715143204]

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[pdawg]

Bigger picture reminder....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[pera]

crossed trend-line, crossing 6h ema

[fotosonics]

Factor in perceptions of rarity. It's rare that it's this low. Hence a lot will buy the further it goes down. Add into that more people jumping on the train.

[TERA]

crossed trend-line, crossing 6h ema

I was wondering where people were getting this picture of an unbroken trendline anyway. I thought we already established that it was clearly broken during the first drop on Tuesday.

[virtualfaqs]

On Mtgox, there's 443 BTC until the huge wall at $900 of 491....

[hyphymikey]

Factor in perceptions of rarity. It's rare that it's this low. Hence a lot will buy the further it goes down. Add into that more people jumping on the train.

It's rare that the price is this low? When you did start looking at bitcoin, less than 2 months ago? Low is 500, we are still above average at 900..... for now.

[Davyd05]

I really don't mind the market going up or down. I don't trade. But this drop and this selling is just stupid. There is just no reason for it. I'm still pretty sure it's 90% pure panic. Based on nothing.

You do realize you can say the same thing for when the price rises $100 in one night. Its pure panic buying and its buying based on nothing.

not when actual good things are happening in terms of btc infrastructure, but yes panic buys and sells do happen.

one buy mainly pushed the price up Saturday morning...so not that much panic buying... even followed that move.

if sources saying banks are talking to exchanges, and have channels for business in China are proven legit we can watch the panic re buys.

[JorgeStolfi]

you mean more fud? cool thanks for the repeat of old stuff

You are welcome. I thought bitcoiners would want to know what the press says, whether they agree with it or not.

For example I believe that the mini(?)crash that is happening now is due to the Chinese TV program, that must have reached - and scared - many people in China.  Arbitrage would explain why the other non-Chinese exchanges are falling too.

One point that struck me in the second article is the comparison of Bitcoin to bearer bonds. They too were once an anonymous international "currency" outside the reach of governments and banks. For that reason (it says) banks have been forbidden to deal with them.

[MAbtc]

[Davyd05]

you mean more fud? cool thanks for the repeat of old stuff

You are welcome. I thought bitcoiners would want to know what the press says, whether they agree with it or not.

For example I believe that the mini(?)crash that is happening now is due to the Chinese TV program, that must have reached - and scared - many people in China.  Arbitrage would explain why the other non-Chinese exchanges are falling too.

One point that struck me in the second article is the comparison of Bitcoin to bearer bonds. They too were once an anonymous international "currency" outside the reach of governments and banks. For that reason (it says) banks have been forbidden to deal with them.

just saying the first of them is old news, as in it has been posted here.. and reddit.
I try to post both ways, wether it is good or bad also I call it FUD unless it has multiple more robust sources not just 3 micro bloggers or twitter post...

well..I guess you could say the downtrend that begun after the huobi personal bank closure started the trend and the TV program in China over extended it.

[aminorex]

velocity of money (number of times each unit turns over on average during the period in question)

Doesn't this equation assume that all payments are made by exchanging the actual currency (banknotes in the case of dollars, blockchain transaction for BTC)?

How does one define V when most dollar payments are made by moving numbers from one bank ledger to another?  Wouldn't the same issue arise with BTC?

(Sorry for the stupid question, but when BTC are traded at an exchange, is each transaction immediately realized on the blockchain, or are transactions tracked in internal accounts, to be combined and realized at a later time?)

V can be read from the blockchain.

Er, sorry again, what is V now for bitcoins? How is it expected to change as PQ increases?

No exchanges use the blockchain for internal transactions.  In common-book interexchange transactions, movements are aggregated as well.

The blockchain is a ledger. Whether dollars are currency or not is irrelevant to GDP.  FRNs are functionally ledger entry tokens.

Last I checked V was 5.98,  which is similar to the historical norm for USD, although USD is currently well below mean, meandering about 4.

My own expectation is that V will remain in the normal zone,  but reserve demand will mean that the circulating fraction is small, and turns over relatively more rapidly.  I know of no better predictor of future velocity in BTC than the present velocity. One or the other or both M, V will increase with increasing PQ.  Given the reserve demand it is hard to understand how V can increase, since an increasing proportion of M has V=0.

[TERA]

[mmitech]

good morning, so what is it "again" ? where is the people who yell "really low volume" when the price is going up ? why dont they do the same and yell "price will not go down on low volume" ?  ah sure they want the market to act on their desired direction..... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

good morning, so what is it "again" ? where is the people who yell "really low volume" when the price is going up ? why dont they do the same and yell "price will not go down on low volume" ?  ah sure they want the market to act on their desired direction..... 

think we finish the day around 950 gox, if the news FUD I linked early gets run with and or proven relevant

[MAbtc]

good morning, so what is it "again" ? where is the people who yell "really low volume" when the price is going up ? why dont they do the same and yell "price will not go down on low volume" ?  ah sure they want the market to act on their desired direction..... 

They're just, like, opinions, man.

[mmitech]

good morning, so what is it "again" ? where is the people who yell "really low volume" when the price is going up ? why dont they do the same and yell "price will not go down on low volume" ?  ah sure they want the market to act on their desired direction..... 

They're just, like, opinions, man.

opinions and wishes are not the same   I wish the price to be $5000 in a week or so but in my opinion it wont go that high in a week

[RicePicker]

good morning, so what is it "again" ? where is the people who yell "really low volume" when the price is going up ? why dont they do the same and yell "price will not go down on low volume" ?  ah sure they want the market to act on their desired direction..... 

They're just, like, opinions, man.

opinions and wishes are not the same   I wish the price to be $5000 in a week or so but in my opinion it wont go that high in a week

They are just stating a fact that the volume was low. The volume was extremely low during the initial run up being under 10k in most of the exchanges. Right now most of the exchanges are above 10k and it is still the weekend. Last time there was a run up the volume was low on a weekday. You do not have to be so butt hurt about it.