Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

I have so much fiat

Patience!

All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips. 

You say we are going lower now? Still don't buy this rally, huh? I take it you are looking for lower lows and an eventual breakdown?

I dont buy it.

but i have to admit i'm scared.

[macsga]

CCMF!!!

[solex]

Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:
...
Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.

The long-term chart shows even more that fiat is suffering from each round of QE just as a heroin addict suffers each time he rides the dragon.
Yellen is a raving money-printer. No improvement in sight.

[molecular]

Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:


Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.

Lol, that article is a hoot.  For instance:

Or, rather, all the money that's been created is sequestered from the actual economy and may as well not exist for most purposes.

That chart shows the monetary base expansion under TARP and QE1,2,3.  The money is used to buy gov't bonds or other financial assets.  That is the official claim from the Fed.  Either the Fed is lying or the author is an idiot.  If the author is correct, the Fed is lying.  In this case, the money is probably parked in the banks waiting to cover a massive, anticipated run on bank accounts.  Chances are, however, that the author is a moron and the money is simply being injected into the world economy at some unknown rate.

Even if the FED is lying and the author is an idiot the US doesn't appear to head into an area of hyperinflation.
And actually there is an article which explains what the FED actually think it is doing, it's too complicated for me but since you claim to know all about economics perhaps you get something out of it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci15-8.pdf

Inflation is inevitable once that money fully enters into circulation.  Precisely where that money went and what it's being used for is not a matter of public knowledge.  But you can bet that it won't just sit somewhere.  All the goldbugs are saying is "They created a tremendous amount of money over a very short period and it will eventually be used.  The question is when and how."

I think I'm not understanding this... doesn't that article state that the bulk of the money (difference between red and blue line) is parked at the fed as "excess reserves"? Does the fed use it for something or does it just sit there? If it just sits there it seems to indeed be a matter of public knowledge, no?

[molecular]

I have so much fiat

Patience!

All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips. 

You say we are going lower now? Still don't buy this rally, huh? I take it you are looking for lower lows and an eventual breakdown?

I dont buy it.

but i have to admit i'm scared.

You once said to me it takes insight and courage to become a bear (or something along those lines). Maybe same is true for becoming a bull?

[granathus]

I have so much fiat

Patience!

All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips. 

What is your buy-in point?

[ElectricMucus]

Even if the FED is lying and the author is an idiot the US doesn't appear to head into an area of hyperinflation.
And actually there is an article which explains what the FED actually think it is doing, it's too complicated for me but since you claim to know all about economics perhaps you get something out of it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci15-8.pdf

Inflation is inevitable once that money fully enters into circulation.  Precisely where that money went and what it's being used for is not a matter of public knowledge.  But you can bet that it won't just sit somewhere.  All the goldbugs are saying is "They created a tremendous amount of money over a very short period and it will eventually be used.  The question is when and how."

The question is will you be around by then? And the point is, yes exactly it just sits somewhere, just the FED pays interest on it, just like the bank pay the fed on another part of their funds.
They can regulate how much interest they pay and as such better adjust liquidity for inter-bank loans.

[windjc]

It seems to me this market, which has broken every trendline except, arguably the original one back in October (although thats a huge stretch), has now 2 choices.

Either it doesn't break last weeks highs, and in this case it continues a downtrend and perhaps another capitulation,

Or it goes to ATHs.

Last weeks highs are pretty much the final major resistance before the ATHs. I just don't think its likely we go above last week and stall out before getting to the ATHs.

[MAbtc]

I have so much fiat

Patience!

All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips. 

You say we are going lower now? Still don't buy this rally, huh? I take it you are looking for lower lows and an eventual breakdown?

I dont buy it.

but i have to admit i'm scared.

No I don't buy it. Always scared.  

We could go higher, just managing risk. Still don't think we will retest highs on this move. Lower lows -- lower than $859 Gox/$765 Stamp? Probably yes, not directly, though.

[ElectricMucus]

The long-term chart shows even more that fiat is suffering from each round of QE just as a heroin addict suffers each time he rides the dragon.
Yellen is a raving money-printer. No improvement in sight.

[snip]

no doubt you gonna show up parroting the same ramblings debunked in the previous post.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:

These type of charts need log-scale or something similar.  I would be much more interested in knowing what the average yearly % increase in monetary supply is, than a chart that says "omfg, look how high this goes".

[windjc]

I have so much fiat

Patience!

All my targets were hit here, waiting for some nice dips. 

You say we are going lower now? Still don't buy this rally, huh? I take it you are looking for lower lows and an eventual breakdown?

I dont buy it.

but i have to admit i'm scared.

No I don't buy it. Always scared.  

We could go higher, just managing risk. Still don't think we will retest highs on this move. Lower lows -- lower than $859 Gox/$765 Stamp? Probably yes, not directly, though.

If we go back to October when this began around $200, we have gained about $10 or so on average a day on Stamp. I think this might be a pretty close assessment of the new amount of average daily fiat that has come into the market. The bid sums grow every week. For all the markets ups and downs I would not be surprised if we keep close to this average going forward for a while.

[Grafzep]

Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:


Of course when you purposefully deny the possibility that what the economic collapse next week bloggers tell you is wrong you might choose to ignore it.

Lol, that article is a hoot.  For instance:

Or, rather, all the money that's been created is sequestered from the actual economy and may as well not exist for most purposes.

That chart shows the monetary base expansion under TARP and QE1,2,3.  The money is used to buy gov't bonds or other financial assets.  That is the official claim from the Fed.  Either the Fed is lying or the author is an idiot.  If the author is correct, the Fed is lying.  In this case, the money is probably parked in the banks waiting to cover a massive, anticipated run on bank accounts.  Chances are, however, that the author is a moron and the money is simply being injected into the world economy at some unknown rate.

Even if the FED is lying and the author is an idiot the US doesn't appear to head into an area of hyperinflation.
And actually there is an article which explains what the FED actually think it is doing, it's too complicated for me but since you claim to know all about economics perhaps you get something out of it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci15-8.pdf

Inflation is inevitable once that money fully enters into circulation.  Precisely where that money went and what it's being used for is not a matter of public knowledge.  But you can bet that it won't just sit somewhere.  All the goldbugs are saying is "They created a tremendous amount of money over a very short period and it will eventually be used.  The question is when and how."

I think I'm not understanding this... doesn't that article state that the bulk of the money (difference between red and blue line) is parked at the fed as "excess reserves"? Does the fed use it for something or does it just sit there? If it just sits there it seems to indeed be a matter of public knowledge, no?

The Fed is just helping the banks rebuild and strengthen their balance sheets in line with Basel 3

[TERA]

Well if Huobi gets shut down then all bets are off, and this might be all that bears have going for them right now.

[ElectricMucus]

Anyway anybody with half a brain probably gets it by looking at this chart:

These type of charts need log-scale or something similar.  I would be much more interested in knowing what the average yearly % increase in monetary supply is, than a chart that says "omfg, look how high this goes".

agreed.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

something

agreed.

Speechless...

[granathus]

Well if Huobi gets shut down then all bets are off, and this might be all that bears have going for them right now.

qft

[JimboToronto]

something

agreed.

Speechless...

LOL  

[adamstgBit]

CCMF!!!

what sorcery is this

[wanksta11]

Are we supposed to sell or buy?