Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[seleme]

This CoinDesk article

http://www.coindesk.com/poll-mt-gox-withdrawal-issues/

says that

(Mt.GOX) then posted an update saying that large bitcoin withdrawals may have been “stuck”, but that it had resolved the problem by refunding the affected accounts.

Isn't that the same as saying "we did not send those BTC, and we have no plans to do so"?

They have refunded mine for 10.89 BTC withdrawal that was nowhere for 8 days, I just tried to withdraw half of that, it was some 10 minutes ago and it's still not in blockchain.

Looks like another period of waiting for my BTC is in front of me.

[1715498892]

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[1715498892]

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[1715498892]

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[seleme]

This CoinDesk article

http://www.coindesk.com/poll-mt-gox-withdrawal-issues/

says that

(Mt.GOX) then posted an update saying that large bitcoin withdrawals may have been “stuck”, but that it had resolved the problem by refunding the affected accounts.

Isn't that the same as saying "we did not send those BTC, and we have no plans to do so"?

They have refunded mine for 10.89 BTC withdrawal that was nowhere for 8 days, I just tried to withdraw half of that, it was some 10 minutes ago and it's still not in blockchain.

Looks like another period of waiting for my BTC is in front of me.

Did another one for 1 BTC and still none in Blockchain. So it looks that they refund meant f'all for me.

[MatTheCat]

The BTC-e thing was pretty obviously malicious FUD, but the Gox issue is live and frankly, worrying to a nervous market.

Seems to me that Bitcoin land is infested with sharks, snakes, and just plain old crooks. Possibly the unique combination of 'financial trades' and practically no regulation are proving to be the magnet attracting so many of these types. Bitcoin already has a history of exchanges and other ventures going 'bust' and vanishing with everyone's Geld. With Mt Gox still having the image of being the 'go to' exchange for Bitcoin trading at least in the minds of much of the media and most laymen, it would be bad news indeed if Mt Gox were to go the same way.

I am hoping that my instincts are serving me well in allowing me to feel comfortable in having a sizeable sum of USD in my account at Bitstamp. (was Unicredit not on the list of Euro banks in trouble?)

[nanobrain]

Try getting fiat onto one of the Chinese exchanges- or indeed, getting it out.

One of those times when your 'academic' approach falls foul of reality.

As I said, you need a substantial position at both exchanges (or you find an associate with accounts at the other exchange and agree to split the profits). It is not a game for small investors.  

Suppose that the effective exchange rate is 5 CNY = 1 USD.

You buy 1 BTC for 900 USD at Bitstamp when its price is too low. You send the BTC to your associate, who sells it for 5000 CNY = 1000 USD.   Now you have temporarily lost 900 USD and he has cashed in 5000 CNY = 1000 USD, so your society has made 100 USD net profit.

Later if conditions reverse he buys 1 BTC for 4500 CNY = 900 USD at Huobi, sends it to you. You sell at Bitstamp for 1000 USD.  Counting both operations, you made a 100 USD profit, he made a 500 CNY profit, and you are settled.

What if things do not even out? Suppose you were only able to do arbitrages of the first type above, and at some point you have accumulated a 10000 USD loss while he got a 70000 CNY gain.  Supose that at that moment the price is even, 1000 USD = 5000 CNY.  Then he buys 12 BTC at 60000 CNY, sends them to you. You sell them at Bitstamp for 12000 USD.  Now your net profit is 2000 USD, his is 10000 CNY = 2000 USD, and both are even.  

In ny case, each side can easily withdraw his profits in his own currency, without any currency conversion or international money transfers.

 

Sorry, Jorge but while you're correct in your scenario its not really arbitrage: your scenario is based on making profit by the market moving appropriately, not by exploiting different exchange rates.

I may as well wait for the price to move on Bitstamp and buy and sell there.

Unless you have a contact in China with the appropriate bank accounts, it can't be done.  And why would someone in China do it, a Westerner brings nothing to the table needed for the process.

As I said, your academic approach is all very well but you should actually try trading in this environment.

[Kramerc]

I think he misunderstood my post. The question was "Why are we following China?", considering that everyone knows their volume is hyperinflated by no transaction fees.

[Davyd05]

I think he misunderstood my post. The question was "Why are we following China?", considering that everyone knows their volume is hyperinflated by no transaction fees.

sheep are sheep, I've been hodling no following required.

[MatTheCat]

I've been hodling no following required.

What a rather sheeplike thing to say.

[windjc]

I think he misunderstood my post. The question was "Why are we following China?", considering that everyone knows their volume is hyperinflated by no transaction fees.

It doesn't look like anyone is following anyone at the moment. We are all running in place. There is enough new fiat coming into the exchanges to buy up any excess supply of bitcoins and besides that everyone is just staring at everyone else.

The only people who may be watching China are day traders on other exchanges hoping anxiously to be on the right side the next move.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

I've been hodling no following required.

What a rather sheeplike thing to say.

Had to un-ignore you on the chance you wrote something genius. thanks for living up to the past.

[gibbtek]

Just withdrew some coins off of Gox, transaction on it's way, showing up on the blockchain, i'll keep you updated

any joy?

[esse83]

Anyone noticed the strange under market price sales @ gox? Sales show both at bitcoinwisom and clarkmoody.

Gox:

23:13:37   921.20000   0.8606
23:13:37   921.90504   0.5000
23:13:37   921.91005   0.0100
23:13:37   922.00000   0.5335
23:12:24   922.00000   0.4000
23:12:10   901.03210   2.0000
23:12:10   906.00000   1.0000
23:12:10   906.02000   0.5519
23:11:46   922.00000   0.0510

[Holliday]

Anyone noticed the strange under market price sales @ gox? Sales show both at bitcoinwisom and clarkmoody.

That's not strange. That is expected behavior at Gox.

[JimboToronto]

Anyone noticed the strange under market price sales @ gox? Sales show both at bitcoinwisom and clarkmoody.

Gox:

23:13:37   921.20000   0.8606
23:13:37   921.90504   0.5000
23:13:37   921.91005   0.0100
23:13:37   922.00000   0.5335
23:12:24   922.00000   0.4000
23:12:10   901.03210   2.0000
23:12:10   906.00000   1.0000
23:12:10   906.02000   0.5519
23:11:46   922.00000   0.0510

Yeah, I just got in and saw them on i286 and wondered WTF.

Checked Chartbuddy who showed a bidwall at 920.

 

[MatTheCat]

It doesn't look like anyone is following anyone at the moment. We are all running in place. There is enough new fiat coming into the exchanges to buy up any excess supply of bitcoins and besides that everyone is just staring at everyone else.

No there isn't. That is just what you wish the case was.

The capital that is buying up any excess supply of coins will likely be the same capital that has built up these massive walls either side of the spot price and is behind the bot algorithms responsible for stagnating/stabilising the price whilst other Bitcoin related political and business objectives are met.

New fiat, does not charge into a high risk asset which has just blown its top, and is hovering around at a still very high price yet shrouded in uncertainty. At least not sensible new money.

I am 'new' money. I am looking for that clear long Bitcoin opportunity but before I do that Bitcoin has to start taking out resistance levels with convincing volume and the trading has to not totally fucking stink of price holding bot algorithms and/or whale price ramping . Whether Bitcoin starts taking out resistance levels in the $500 zone as it climbs from a $380 bottom or it starts taking out resistance levels in the $800 - $900 region is irrelevant to me. I am not jumping on the train until it has shown it is going in the right direction.

[Davyd05]

anyone see whats going on in regards to Gox, twice I've seen it touch 900? Are the fake walls being pulled that quickly.. 905-915 2000+ coins for sale in that range are just being pulled and replaced.


lol seems like I was the slowest to type this question out. Interesting times for gox.. very interesting.

[adnanabbas]

These are the most beautiful things ever

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFtfMNT_8tg

[esse83]

anyone see whats going on in regards to Gox, twice I've seen it touch 900? Are the fake walls being pulled that quickly.. 905-915 2000+ coins for sale in that range are just being pulled and replaced.


lol seems like I was the slowest to type this question out. Interesting times for gox.. very interesting.

Perhaps a little glitch in the system showing us the real bids.. if they were going under why not do whatever it takes to give the impression that all is well. Guess we will never know.

[gibbtek]

I sent a mail to Gox support about 45mins ago asking to get the funds that were stuck in limbo put back in my account... and now they're back there! I'd asked the support guy on irc to do it a few days back and he said not possible. Not sure, maybe I was a lot more polite this time

Not really sure what to make of this, I know everyone is sick of hearing gox sux stories but this was a nano step in the right direction. I hope (although not kidding myself on) this is a sign of them actually seriously trying to get their act together.. which begs the question...

if Gox somehow got everything sorted (lets for argument sake say midnight tomorrow), everybody got their BTC back in their wallets, month old fiat transfers appeared into our bank accounts everything was the way it should... would that restore faith in the magic exchange? or is the blemish too big now? can they ever regain trust of those who have left?

[kurious]

This CoinDesk article

http://www.coindesk.com/poll-mt-gox-withdrawal-issues/

says that

(Mt.GOX) then posted an update saying that large bitcoin withdrawals may have been “stuck”, but that it had resolved the problem by refunding the affected accounts.

Isn't that the same as saying "we did not send those BTC, and we have no plans to do so"?

They have refunded mine for 10.89 BTC withdrawal that was nowhere for 8 days, I just tried to withdraw half of that, it was some 10 minutes ago and it's still not in blockchain.

Looks like another period of waiting for my BTC is in front of me.

Did another one for 1 BTC and still none in Blockchain. So it looks that they refund meant f'all for me.

Try a ticket - they get around to them in 3-5 days at the moment.   Maybe my withdrawals were smaller - but they all went through once the ticket was 'allocated'.  

But I never got refund - I think smaller withdrawals (which is all I dare to risk) just get stuck until someone digs them out.

I went down to pulling 0.5 BTC at a time, but one of those got lost too (then found when I posted a support ticket).  Went for it with 1.4 today - as I am nearly all out now - but sure enough, lost again.

It's pretty bad....