Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Pray for a takeover

What would that mean?  

If an exchange's outstanding obligations (the sum of its client's account balances, plus pending bills etc.) are more than its assets (furniture, cash in bank, and coins in wallet), why would anyone want to buy it?

Reputation (lol), contacts/customers and a platform that has been mostly proven and is up-and-running.

[billyjoeallen]

Pray for a takeover

What would that mean?  

If an exchange's outstanding obligations (the sum of its client's account balances, plus pending bills etc.) are more than its assets (furniture, cash in bank, and coins in wallet), why would anyone want to buy it?

Same reason Hostess, Chrysler, or anybody else gets bought out. Brand awareness, the domain name, name recognition, technical talent (yeah, I know), the trade engine, existing licenses, merchantcontracts, contracts with other payment processors, etc. 

[meanig]

Pray for a takeover

What would that mean?  

If an exchange's outstanding obligations (the sum of its client's account balances, plus pending bills etc.) are more than its assets (furniture, cash in bank, and coins in wallet), why would anyone want to buy it?

Tens of thousands of verified customers ready to trade

[kurious]

Pray for a takeover

What would that mean?  

If an exchange's outstanding obligations (the sum of its client's account balances, plus pending bills etc.) are more than its assets (furniture, cash in bank, and coins in wallet), why would anyone want to buy it?

Same reason Hostess, Chrysler, or anybody else gets bought out. Brand awareness, the domain name, name recognition, technical talent (yeah, I know), the trade engine, existing licenses, merchantcontracts, contracts with other payment processors, etc. 

Agreed - it would be worth buying, better run it could get back on top - it's not impossible and certainly cheaper than launching afresh.

The only decision is whether to wait until they get it for nothing from an effective receivership situation and then spend to resurrect it, or negotiate while it's still functioning but with a guy who wants a fortune for the 'market leader' before it's tipping over...

It's easier to pick it up for free when the lights go out, but the damage may be worse...

I reckon they start negotiating as soon as possible and they are invited in so they can due a basic due diligence and see how bad it is and who key staff are - then wait until carpeles has no more cards to play and it's going up in flames to snatch it cheap and catch it just as it falls.

Nasty - but the cheapest solution.    I am sure sharks are circling.

I hope it is what happens - rather than what looks like it may be a total implosion.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[kurious]

Pray for a takeover

What would that mean?  

If an exchange's outstanding obligations (the sum of its client's account balances, plus pending bills etc.) are more than its assets (furniture, cash in bank, and coins in wallet), why would anyone want to buy it?

Tens of thousands of verified customers ready to trade

A Gox takeover that was credible would lift the market enormously - with the right timing it would be a steal.

[MANofthePEOPLE]

Seems like Huobi is on a different page than stamp and btc-e today

[JorgeStolfi]

If an exchange's outstanding obligations (the sum of its client's account balances, plus pending bills etc.) are more than its assets (furniture, cash in bank, and coins in wallet), why would anyone want to buy it?

Reputation (lol), contacts/customers and a platform that has been mostly proven and is up-and-running.

There may be buyers for their physical assets including computer hardware and software.  That may be worth a couple million US$ at most. However, no one will want to inherit their client accounts, since they are not assets but debts. I would guess that the sum of all account balances (coins and cash that they owe to their clients) is much more  than 100 million US$.  Do they have that much in their bank and wallet?

[hdbuck]

so there is basically two options:

gox shuts down = sell sell sell
gox gets bought up = buy buy buy

either way they just seem to be buying time from now on.

[billyjoeallen]

If an exchange's outstanding obligations (the sum of its client's account balances, plus pending bills etc.) are more than its assets (furniture, cash in bank, and coins in wallet), why would anyone want to buy it?

Reputation (lol), contacts/customers and a platform that has been mostly proven and is up-and-running.

There may be buyers for their physical assets including computer hardware and software.  That may be worth a couple million US$ at most. However, no one will want to inherit their client accounts, since they are not assets but debts. I would guess that the sum of all account balances (coins and cash that they owe to their clients) is much more  than 100 million US$.  Do they have that much in their bank and wallet?

I have pennies in my account. If a credible operator took over, there would be tens of thousands in it. I am not alone by a long shot. We would be trading, generating commissions and fees. We only left because we had to. There is still a big demand for an exchange other than stamp that can handle big volume. it would be a tremendous opportunity for someone who could recapitalize Gox. Recapitalization will take only a few million. Gox could be a billion dollar company if the operator got his act together.

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


               !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !   Wed !   Thu !   Fri !   Sat !   Sun !   Mon !   Tue !                     
  EXCHANGE     !  01/26 !  01/27 !  01/28 ! 01/29 ! 01/30 ! 01/31 ! 02/01 ! 02/02 ! 02/03 ! 02/04 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp     |   9.70 |  25.19 |  20.04 |  7.04 | 13.13 |  7.73 |  8.30 |  4.07 |  4.93 |  7.59 | USD                 
  MtGOX        |  16.11 |  10.02 |  11.82 |  7.21 |  6.60 |  4.45 |  5.13 |  2.28 |  3.37 |  5.40 | USD,EUR,GBP,AUD,JPY 
  BTC-e        |  10.38 |  21.02 |  16.82 |  6.53 | 12.54 |  4.65 |  6.30 |  4.74 |  5.75 |  4.51 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  BitFinEx     |   7.88 |  15.63 |  13.62 |  3.87 |  8.18 |  3.91 |  4.54 |  3.15 |  3.45 |  3.36 | USD                 
  Bitcoin.DE   |   0.34 |   0.60 |   0.49 |  0.33 |  0.47 |  0.35 |  0.33 |  0.35 |  0.51 |  0.27 | EUR                 
  Kraken       |   0.24 |   0.63 |   0.54 |  0.24 |  0.37 |  0.20 |  0.23 |  0.15 |  0.21 |  0.29 | EUR                 
  CampBX       |   0.05 |   0.13 |   0.20 |  0.07 |  0.06 |  0.05 |  0.23 |  0.16 |  0.10 |  0.12 | USD                 
  CaVirtEx     |   0.10 |   0.40 |   0.22 |  0.21 |  0.25 |  0.24 |  0.24 |  0.20 |  0.08 |  0.17 | CAD                 
  Crypto-Trade |    .   |    .   |   0.01 |   .   |  0.01 |   .   |  0.01 |  0.01 |   .   |  0.01 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL     |  44.80 |  73.62 |  63.76 | 25.50 | 41.61 | 21.58 | 25.31 | 15.11 | 18.40 | 21.72 |                     

  Huobi        |  91.31 |  63.13 |  92.88 | 32.14 | 29.27 | 15.26 | 28.86 | 26.27 | 24.77 | 18.65 | CNY                 
  OKCoin       |  31.40 |  35.41 |  52.37 | 29.11 | 18.56 | 17.11 | 20.38 | 20.00 | 18.09 | 12.77 | CNY                 
  BTC-China    |   5.55 |   4.43 |   6.45 |  1.94 |  1.99 |  1.17 |  2.31 |  2.21 |  1.70 |  1.33 | CNY (NOTE 1)         

  SUBTOTAL     | 128.26 | 102.97 | 151.70 | 63.19 | 49.82 | 33.54 | 51.55 | 48.48 | 44.56 | 32.75 |                     

  TOTAL        | 173.06 | 176.59 | 215.46 | 88.69 | 91.43 | 55.12 | 76.86 | 63.59 | 62.96 | 54.47 |                     



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Coinbase is said to use Bitstamp for currency conversion.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

(NOTE 1) On 2014-01-30, BTC-China had a burst of extremely fast, regular and atypical transactions, all with similar amounts (a few tens of BTC) and prices (~4836 CNY), adding up to about 41,050 BTC.  The burst started suddenly around 17:00 UTC and and stopped suddenly around 19:30 UTC. Presumably those transactions were made by a faulty robot trading against itself or some other robot, and did not represent actual exchange of money and bitcoins between distinct individuals. Therefore those anomalous transactions were subtracted from the BTC-China volume for Jan/30.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

In the UTC day that just ended (Tuesday Feb/04 UTC), China's volume was another record low,  ~33 kBTC; even lower than on New Year's (Fri Jan/31).

Exchanges outside China, on the other hand, did slighlty better than the last two days, at ~22 kBTC.  However they too have been feeling the effects of the extended Cinese holidays: their volumes since Fri Jan/31 have been less than half of the average in the previous week.

The "experiment" of the Chinese New Year holidays seems to show that the daily volume at the exchanges outside China is largely determind by that of the Chinese exchanges, specifically Huobi and OKCoin.  See the plots below.

[threecats]

for when bitwisdom get so  slowwwwww .....

http://blocks.wizb.it/

[JorgeStolfi]

for when bitwisdom get so  slowwwwww .....

http://blocks.wizb.it/

Beware, I tried to zoom OUT and instead it suddenly zoomed in so much that my PC froze and I had to reboot.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Vigil]

Has the gov still not released the Gox funds from months ago?

[bassclef]

Has the gov still not released the Gox funds from months ago?

You mean the funds Homeland Security seized from their Dwolla account last summer? Probably not. I had some cash tied up in that (talk about your bad timing); fortunately Gox credited my account anyway.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation