ivomm has a point.
I am pretty sure many of us here will be lining up to sell most of their stash as soon as we see any price above $10k. Only a handful of people will be left when it hits $15k.
And after $15k its a huuuge huge gamble.
Just like happened in 2017 when people saw $1200-1500, many people dumped their shit but then it went to $20k.
The thing is, you don't know what'll happen when it passes $20k.
It can go as high as $100k, maybe 200k... or... It may start to fall after reaching $30k.
Hard decision to make for many.
*It is better to set yourself a target and wait for it till it happens. That's what I'll do.
This is called resistance. And yes there may be quite a bit of it between 10 and 19k. But selling there would be betting on the idea that Bitcoin is a failure. And here is the thing... if Bitcoin is a failure then everyone here is really just singing in the choir of the Church of the Bitcoin Cargo Cult. If Bitcoin is a failure then chances are it's seen it's all time forever high. In this case it would most likely be best to sell now.
But if Bitcoin is not
yet a failure, then we WILL eventually see new all time highs. It is impossible for us not to.
Bitcoin is still *the* *most* asymmetrical bet you can place on a large scale.
If a person is uncomfortable with the amount of the bet? Then selling is advised. If they are in so much profit they want to hedge Bitcoins failure then selling *some* is advised.
I am pretty sure many of us here will be lining up to sell most of their stash as soon as we see any price above $10k. Only a handful of people will be left when it hits $15k.
But I think you underestimate some folks here. Some of us have been through the fire a few times already... Some of us are even buying more. I might nnot be among them, but some here will hold until bitcoin is either worthless, or a global store of value at least on the scale of Gold, and possibly a global money that you will no longer buy and sell... but will pay a bit to move onto layer 2 where it will be used for all kinds of transactions.
With Bitcoin I am currently betting on Layer 2. And putting my skin in the game there. I am not going to let go very easily.
Chump or champ? One or the other really... time will tell.
I have some troubles with your seeming black and white thinking in various points that you make in this post, cAPSLOCK.
I understand that even satoshi made similar points about bitcoin either succeeding immensely or going to zero, and maybe even satoshi was a bit hyperbolic in that regard.
Let me just say this to attempt to clarify my point, there are possibilities that bitcoin could pump for a considerable amount of time and then end up going to zero and there are also possibilities of ups and downs and fixes along the way, but maybe in the much longer term (such as 50 years from now - in which likely many of the active participants in this thread will be dead), either bitcoin is a success or not.
In the meantime, there can be all kinds of playing around that could cause a variety of trading of bitcoin to pay off immensely, even if it goes against an attempt to accumulate BTC. Furthermore, there can be valuing of wealth in dollars that ends up paying off very well, too in the next 10 years.
Don't get me wrong. I am sticking to my system to accumulate bitcoin by buying when the price goes up and selling small amounts as the price goes up in part because I continue to believe in its fundamentals and its likely long term price appreciation, but I have no real prejudgement for how exactly the price performance is going to play out, even while I believe that there continue to be real decent odds that BTC remains in early stages of s-curve exponential adoption and even though I also put a decent amount of weight to the likelihood that BTC's future price performance is going to continue to follow up and down, largely UP waves that include short-periods of 5x to 100x bursts (and thereafter corrections) similar to the exponential periods that we have already historically seen.
Largely, my point here is to suggest that there are going to continue to be a lot of ways to make money in the future, and even playing around with shitcoins is going to be part of the strategy of some successful people in this space and continuing to sort through the distractions, including the pumping of various snakeoil and other kinds of disinformation and attacks on bitcoin, is also going to be an ongoing phenomenon that will cause a variety of strategies to have decent chances of success (not only black and white HODL and accumulate approach, even if that approach has decent chances to pay off decently well, too, especially for folks with longer timelines of 5 years and more).