the market is saying that there is an ~84% chance that GOXERS will be able to withdraw bitcoin soon
It's a little lower than that - and it depends how you quantify 'soon'.
I was looking for about 82.5% on Sunday and couldn't sell mine at that.
I was offered 60% and some were publicly offering 70% 'real BTC' for 'GoxBTC' - which was too low for me.
Anyway - I never thought they would open the doors on Monday.
Firstly, because their track record of keeping promises on things like this is woeful.
Secondly, because it would have meant a huge flight out of GoxBTC, likely to be rather damaging to the reserves.
I think it can't be soon, and would require
balls of steel to say 'ok you can all withdraw now'. Does that man look like he has them?
Maybe a zero fee offer, and of course a rising price as GoxBTC rises in price when people buy to get out would save them, but it's a big gamble.