Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I've seen many posts and threads about price speculations and hitting 5k per coin.

Now, to try and stay a little bit on-topic:

What are these speculations based on? Althought, I'd say hell yes to BTC being worth $5000,- per coin but I can't really see this happen.
And no, the reason why I can't see this happen is not about the drama caused by Gox.

Is anyone here able to clarify this?

IT is fairly easy to advance beyond $5000 per BTC.. based on market cap and based on BTC taking over some of the functionality of gold or any currency... for example gold has more than a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap and the dollar more than 15 trillion market cap... anyhow there are a lot of currencies that BTC could serve b/c there are 190 countries.. even the international transmittal system has a lot of potential for BTC to take on some of that value.. or the stock market.. etc etc..

ONCE BTC takes on some of this value, its market cap will increase from currently 7 billion to.... whatever amount... IN order to reach $5000 per BTC, the BTC market cap only need to rise to about 90Billion... which is NOT a very high target if it takes on some of these values.

[JorgeStolfi]

Can you, under Japanese law, include BTC in liabilites?

I don't know what Japanese Law says.

But, logically, a client depositing BTC in an exchange should be no different than, say, someone lending their car to a used car dealership, to be paid if and when the car is sold, or to have it back if it isn't.

In both cases the guy handed over his property but expected to have it (or something else) back eventually, so he should be considered a creditor.  Hopefully he can prove his claim to the liquidators by showing the contract.

Not even logic tells how to value that loan when the liquidators can't return the item itself, of when the item was damaged or lost value while in the possession of the liquidated company.  Presumably the laws and traditions have defined that.

[JayJuanGee]

People often joke that "America has the worst form of government on the planet except for all the others." It ain't perfect.

And it certainly isn't better than all the others.  It has strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other large nation-states, and those are a matter of taste.  There are small nation-states which have systems which are vastly preferable to the U.S. system, in my opinion, but they are generally special cases.  Iceland is not too bad.  Norway is fairly tolerable.  I could almost stand Scotland.  Singapore is rather decent.  Chile, quite nice.  Conceivably Paraguay.  But then I've not lived there long enough to see the worst aspects, to judge how deeply they disturb me.

We should get together and buy an island with bitcoins, call it Satoshi Island and have the currency as BTC of course, use the bitcoin protocol to vote trade etc.. and live happily ever after.

+1

Lets use Litecoin as BTC would give the foundation to much a hold on the nascent state of the free 

And BTC is already bought up by the ukraniens

ARE there going to be any girls on this fictional?  OR just a bunch of techie and nerdy guys?  HEHEHEHE

[JorgeStolfi]

Their liability figure for all we know could just the actual dollar/yen withdrawals it wants to make good on,  and dollar/yen deposits it plans to refund - taking into no account internal customer btc/fiat balances.

Yes, that would be the most logical approach, methinks.

Suppose the client deposited 50 BTC when the price was 10$,  and by trading inside MtGOX he managed to have 1000 BTC and 2000$ in his account at closing time, having withdrawn 30$ at some point.  Methinks that he entitled to get back only the 50 x 10$ - 30$ = 470$ that he put in, not the 1000 x 500$ + 2000$ = 502,000$ that he thought he had.  Makes sense?

EDIT: However, courts use a "logic" that is quite different from the usual sense of the word.

[podyx]

I've seen many posts and threads about price speculations and hitting 5k per coin.

Now, to try and stay a little bit on-topic:

What are these speculations based on? Althought, I'd say hell yes to BTC being worth $5000,- per coin but I can't really see this happen.
And no, the reason why I can't see this happen is not about the drama caused by Gox.

Is anyone here able to clarify this?

IT is fairly easy to advance beyond $5000 per BTC.. based on market cap and based on BTC taking over some of the functionality of gold or any currency... for example gold has more than a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap and the dollar more than 15 trillion market cap... anyhow there are a lot of currencies that BTC could serve b/c there are 190 countries.. even the international transmittal system has a lot of potential for BTC to take on some of that value.. or the stock market.. etc etc..

ONCE BTC takes on some of this value, its market cap will increase from currently 7 billion to.... whatever amount... IN order to reach $5000 per BTC, the BTC market cap only need to rise to about 90Billion... which is NOT a very high target if it takes on some of these values.

actually theres probably less then 1 million bitcoin for sale under $5k so it would need less then 10 billion

[Peter R]

off-topic, about Gox and all the BS going around, I find it unbelievable when early adopters Like Roger and Erik and everyone else asking people to just forget their money and move on..... yea you can move on, you have millions already so what if you lost few thousands, try convince this guy who lost +4700BTC

I feel for the people that had funds at MtGox, and I think it is important to be sympathetic to these victims.  

But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on?  Do you have a better option?

yes bring justice and tell us what really happened and prove it then try to resolve it with all what you can, when all this fail then people will try and only start trying to move on.

do you know what happened in gox ? I think no right ? then why to move on?

I went to breakfast, and came back and see that many people misunderstood what I meant by "learning from the [MtGox] experience and moving on."

I think most community members, myself included, want to figure out what happened.  How else can we learn from the experience on move on?  And I think most community members want a criminal investigation of MtGox too.  In fact, I believe it was the large players in the bitcoin world (Coinbase, Blockchain, SecondMarket, etc) that contacted the FBI to report evidence of criminal behaviour at MtGox.  If MtGox is found guilty of a fraud that wiped out half a billion dollars and hurt many people, then those responsible should suffer the consequences.

Furthermore, the purpose of a bankruptcy proceeding is to recoup as much funds as possible to payback the creditors (Gox depositors), so we are already working on salvaging as much as possible [although there may not be much to salvage, if my theory is correct].  

So I don't understand how the people that are arguing with me are saying anything different than what I'm saying.  


Here is what I think actually happened, by the way:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=488058.msg5397869#msg5397869
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=492393.msg5438572#msg5438572

[EuroTrash]

102 coins bought in one go to break that 575 micro wall @ stamp...

[JayJuanGee]

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way  down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...


likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH  HA!!!!!!   The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!......     The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.

My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS.....

So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash).  If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours.  True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points. 

Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits? 

Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations...

[JayJuanGee]

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified...   People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect...  but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be...   .. 

The reality is people far underestimate their own biases in their thinking. People may be informed, but how they use the information will be affected by their biases. We all filter information, and tend to dismiss or undervalue information that doesn't support our theories, and overvalue information that does. It's human nature.

Surely, there is some truth in what you are saying... but personally, I am of the opinion that you give way too much weight within your characterization of what you are thinking motivates people... ...

So maybe we disagree only regarding matter of degree rather than the fact that some of this dynamic exists...

Also, I agree that some people may NOT recognize the extent to which they are biased in some regards - but generally people are a lot more aware than you appear to be giving credit... ...

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified...   People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect...  but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be...   .. 

Your caps key keeps getting stuck, I think you should get it checked out. Oh and the full stop key as well.

YOU seem to be getting distracted by style over substance... .MAYBE, it is just something that you feel comfortable?    I would agree with any assertion that style can help to bring emphasis to the substance.. and accordingly, most of my style is on purpose in order to emphasize certain points.   However, sometimes, postings may be typed quickly, and the style may be somewhat unintended.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wyld]

YOU seem to be getting distracted by style over substance... .MAYBE, it is just something that you feel comfortable?    I would agree with any assertion that style can help to bring emphasis to the substance.. and accordingly, most of my style is on purpose in order to emphasize certain points.   However, sometimes, postings may be typed quickly, and the style may be somewhat unintended.

Christopher Walken, it's great to have you on board with Bitcoin.

[zyk]

The news which are out and still you and the market decline to let sink in, is ,that the value increase

of craptofuck heretofore came from fresh blood entering the ponzi and you might be right that there is one

more suckers ralley to be had as the market as well refuses to accept that 850000 BTChaven´t been

accounted for and subsequently can´t be sold anymore but have been sold off already.

Still there are more criminal early-adopters who are searching for a way out and realizing profits before the

music stops.  Or who in their right mind is still putting money up at exchanges which are entitelt to run?

When the criminals get indicted rather consequently the new bull is off to the races.

[JayJuanGee]

I've seen many posts and threads about price speculations and hitting 5k per coin.

Now, to try and stay a little bit on-topic:

What are these speculations based on? Althought, I'd say hell yes to BTC being worth $5000,- per coin but I can't really see this happen.
And no, the reason why I can't see this happen is not about the drama caused by Gox.

Is anyone here able to clarify this?

IT is fairly easy to advance beyond $5000 per BTC.. based on market cap and based on BTC taking over some of the functionality of gold or any currency... for example gold has more than a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap and the dollar more than 15 trillion market cap... anyhow there are a lot of currencies that BTC could serve b/c there are 190 countries.. even the international transmittal system has a lot of potential for BTC to take on some of that value.. or the stock market.. etc etc..

ONCE BTC takes on some of this value, its market cap will increase from currently 7 billion to.... whatever amount... IN order to reach $5000 per BTC, the BTC market cap only need to rise to about 90Billion... which is NOT a very high target if it takes on some of these values.

actually theres probably less then 1 million bitcoin for sale under $5k so it would need less then 10 billion

I am NOT sure whether I understand your point completely...  

For example, we know that gold does NOT really circulate very much... but it fluctuates in price based on perceived value and also that it is considered to be a inflationary hedge and good storage of value..

If you are saying that the amount of BTC in circulation is going to affect how it is priced, I agree with your general sentiment, that the hoarding factor (I don't really like that word, hoarding) is going to cause BTC prices to go up additionally b/c it will cause a demand for BTC b/c of the shortage and b/c people are generally wanting to keep some of their assets in BTC..

For example, for the money transmittal feature of BTC or for various purchases that are being made with BTC, there will be a need for BTC to carry out the transmission of the money or for the purchase..  

Let's say that there is a certain amount of BTC circulating 1 million.. as you stated, then those million BTC are used to conduct a multitude of transactions.. , but also people begin to believe that BTC is a valuable asset to hang on to.  Accordingly, people may still spend quite a bit in BTC; however, those people will also  have an incentive to replace their stored BTC as soon as possible b/c they understand that BTC holds its value well, relative to other assets.

[JayJuanGee]

YOU seem to be getting distracted by style over substance... .MAYBE, it is just something that you feel comfortable?    I would agree with any assertion that style can help to bring emphasis to the substance.. and accordingly, most of my style is on purpose in order to emphasize certain points.   However, sometimes, postings may be typed quickly, and the style may be somewhat unintended.

Christopher Walken, it's great to have you on board with Bitcoin.

What is the point about Walken? 

Can you explain?

  I looked up Walken, and surely I cannot figure out the reference.

[KeyserSoze]

We should get together and buy an island with bitcoins, call it Satoshi Island and have the currency as BTC of course, use the bitcoin protocol to vote trade etc.. and live happily ever after.

It would be nothing but endless Goxings. And as with any utopia, who would clean the toilets?

[zyk]

Whats up with the movement the last 3 days? I've never seen this currency stay at the same price for so long really. Explain? For the last months the bots been all over the place (bitstamp for example) and trading/manipulating the price like crazy. Why not now?

EXPLAIN

cause death struck the Ponzi....and the body gets cold now

[bitdig]

After Gox is gone, to get to $800 or to $400 we need less coins, as far as those 750k coins are out from trading, in other words support levels are much thinner in both ways.... It will be easier to manipulate the price now...
I expect much higher volatility from what we are used...
And current price is relatively high, as far as we got here thanks for Gox speculations and China, the only thing that holds us here is a memory that "this is cheap", but actually now, it is not cheap, relatively small dump of coins will get us down, back, when Gox was alive this dump wouldn't get us that low as we could "visit" these days....

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way  down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...


likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH  HA!!!!!!   The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!......     The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.

My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS.....

So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash).  If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours.  True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points.  

Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits?  

Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations...

[zyk]

please put up wall that I can sell my bag into

[KeyserSoze]

Christopher Walken, it's great to have you on board with Bitcoin.

What is the point about Walken?  Can you explain? I looked up Walken, and surely I cannot figure out the reference.

More cowbell!
(Walken talks erratically. You type erratically)

[yrtrnc]

Fun facts, did you know that you can only set a max selling price of 3200 usd per btc on btc-e..