Yes... perhaps you do not NOT know nuttin.
But still... something seems to be off by your perspective, including if you thought that there were boring periods in BTC's life.
I don't really know about 2011 through personal experience, but I was watching the bitcoin space since late 2013, and surely, I found it quite interesting, even between late 2013 and 2016.. I mean if you really think about bitcoin, it is a paradigm shifting invention.. that is quite amazing every 10 minutes that it pumps out another block, and ongoingly there have been new businesses coming and going in bitcoin and some of them successfully evolving, too.. so I am having some difficulties relating to your finding bitcoin to be boring perspective.
Certainly it is an interesting technological invention, potentially capable of replacing gold (at least partially) as reserve and investment. A bit too late, although. Until 2017 I thought it would remain an insignificant curiosity, but since then I am sure it is going to stay for decades. But, it does not mean that bitcoin can make another 10x increase.
Part of my point is not just $20k by itself, but how the BTC price got to nearly $20k from around $10k in early September.
BTC prices pretty much doubled and broke through at least three resistance points in the $12,500 arena, $13,880 and $17,250, and you seem to want to focus upon the fact that it did not quite make it above some kind of symbolic (or maybe self-selected point) of $20k, when it just got into the region in the past week or so? You are either disingenuous or a troll to be focusing on such nonsense and trying to make some kind of supposedly meaningful bearish point out of it.
Breaking through anything below $20k is nothing new, we have seen it before. It is somewhat amusing that here "bearish" means "not expecting huge increase". I am bullish in the long run, the difference is that in my case "bullish" may mean average price doubling every four years (shorter term fluctuations are definitely going to be stronger).
Yes.. even you are admitting that the possibility is slight.
And, we should acknowledge that anything is possible, but I don't arrange my financial life around the slight possibilities.. I arrange my life around more likely possibilities..
Hopefully, you are doing the same.. though you seem to be having trouble recognizing where we are at, exactly... in regards to bitcoinlandia.. and appreciating where we are at.. and perhaps your lack of appreciation has to do with your failure/refusal to either stack enough coins or selling too many coins too soon.
I did not sell a single satoshi from my main stash, cold storage since late 2017. However, I do not expect 10x gains anymore.
Bitcoin does not need widespread institutional adoption to go above $50k.. but widespread institutional adoption may well bring BTC prices above $1million by the end of 2025-ish... 2024 is 4 years from now.. you should be looking at the end of 2021 and the end of 2025.. don't you know nuttin?
There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said (
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come.
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