Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lambie Slayer]

Gentz, I know we have spent years plotting things like the 100k party, but I have had my mind on another festivity for WO's to participate in......

This could be done either in groups or individually......

Its something I think deep down you all want to do, whether you will admit it or not......

Something that with the right WO hand sign in the right pic could have legendary implications that resonate across the Bitcoin universe......

A trend that could result in the unfortunate(but still worthwhile) extinction of several species of mammals.....


What I am proposing is for some noble WO member to travel deep into the heart of Carolina and......

KILL A BEAR (then flash the WO hand sign in a pic )



https://www.carolinasportsman.com/features/do-it-yourself-carolina-bear-hunting/

We could even have a small BTC bounty and whoever kills the bear w the WO sign first then other members would send a donation to their address as a token of appreciation. I certainly would make a donation if someone beats me to the first kill.  


 

[Lambie Slayer]

wonder what price ill wake up to. might have to break my tradition of not checking the price till after ive caught up on the WO.

well apparently i was rich when i started reading the WO this morning (5 pages behind or so) but by the time i caught up and actually checked the price im poor again. maybe rich by noon?

so just another day for the honeybadger really.

I agree that it is NOT easy being a bitcoin HODLer.

Going from rags to riches and back to rags again... and then hoping that riches will come back... at some point.. hopefully soon ^tm.

Kind of wished that when I was in that transitory "rich" status, I would have cashed some out.. and valued my wealth in fiat.....



hahahahahaha




NOT

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

You seem to be arguing definitionally regarding what is a "HODLer"  

A true HODLer would not depart with his/her coins until... blah blah blah.

Hardly makes sense because there are all kinds of variations in the positions of peeps, including their entry points.

Of course, there are perceptions regarding whether the price is going up from any given point or if it is going to reverse.

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

Sure there are various round numbers in which there might be some psychological hang-ups and consideration that the price might reverse.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

I'll refer you to BTC price prediction models of stock to flow, 4 year fractal and exponential scurve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.  

Looks like no matter how hard they dump, it goes only up. When 20k is broken, all hell will broken lose.

Agree.. the battle is futile.. but does not stop it from being waged...

Sure it could take weeks or even months to play out... but still.. odds are against fighting it... but NOT going to stop the wisheners for DOWNity to have hopenium and to press their luck.

Don't forget what Hal Finney predicted more than ten years ago, or rather his napkin math calculation. (TLDR = $10m USD / BTC) Still, that's going to take a few more years (perhaps another decade.)

I came to $3M / BTC after a quick calculation (roughly $60 Trillion divided by 21 million) while pondering the idea of GBTC buying more BTC daily than mined daily. On the latter: if that's the case and we are truly in a new phase where there is relentless and relatively price agnostic buying on a continued basis above daily coin production, the question is simply:

=> at what point are HOLDlers willing to start parting with their coins?

I don't know how I could gauge that or make an educated guess on where that level would be. My gut reaction would be that $50k would make a few large holdlers nervous and that $100k can be expected to be a big 'cash out' (=redistribute) moment.

If anyone has a better scientific approach to this, let that person step forward.

The 100k mark will be interesting, yes Hodlers will sell some large amounts to fund 100k parties across the globe, but as much of these funds will be given to hookers and coke dealers attending the parties, we can expect said whores and dealers to want in on the action and to invest much of their earnings into Bitcoin.

You left out Lambo dealers... You fuck!!!!!   

When you're right, you're right. Apologies to all you Lambo dealers trawling WO daily looking for future customers. 

[Torque]

t is the ultimate marshmallow challenge.  Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.

For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property.  I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large.  And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.

That is where the real crux is, in my opinion.  Where that point is for each whale/minnow.

You sir, are very wise.

Anyone not following a similar recommendation/approach is going to end up with massive regrets before they die.

I see so many here joking about blowing their bitcoin "winnings" on fancy cars, frivolous shit and such, and inwardly I know some of them aren't really joking.

[Lambie Slayer]

http://www.buffalocreekguideservice.com/services/black-bear/

"Black Bear hunts are conducted out of Hyde County, North Carolina. This land has more Black Bear per square mile than anywhere in the world. The bears in NC do not hibernate, and huge tracts of farmland with corn and soybean fields surround this area."

"North Carolina is a “natural bait” only state and therefore we use corn and peanuts to lure in our bears. "



Its all starting to make sense now. In a far away land called Carolina, they literally use corn to lure bears in so they can kill them. Its all connected and part of the cosmic plan.

[Wekkel]

Saylor:

You don't have to invest all your money in #Bitcoin, just the money you want to keep.

https://t.co/bQjYkvRa1S

Haha, I love this guy.

[serveria.com]

Gentz, I know we have spent years plotting things like the 100k party, but I have had my mind on another festivity for WO's to participate in......

This could be done either in groups or individually......

Its something I think deep down you all want to do, whether you will admit it or not......

Something that with the right WO hand sign in the right pic could have legendary implications that resonate across the Bitcoin universe......

A trend that could result in the unfortunate(but still worthwhile) extinction of several species of mammals.....


What I am proposing is for some noble WO member to travel deep into the heart of Carolina and......

KILL A BEAR (then flash the WO hand sign in a pic )



https://www.carolinasportsman.com/features/do-it-yourself-carolina-bear-hunting/

We could even have a small BTC bounty and whoever kills the bear w the WO sign first then other members would send a donation to their address as a token of appreciation. I certainly would make a donation if someone beats me to the first kill.  


 

So you're trying to say bear hunting season is not yet over? 

[True Myth]

t is the ultimate marshmallow challenge.  Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.

For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property.  I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large.  And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.

That is where the real crux is, in my opinion.  Where that point is for each whale/minnow.

You sir, are very wise.

Anyone not following a similar recommendation/approach is going to end up with massive regrets before they die.

I see so many here joking about blowing their bitcoin "winnings" on fancy cars, frivolous shit and such, and inwardly I know some of them aren't really joking.

In recent years I've come to fully believe and trust in "the pursuit of happiness".  It sounds cliché but, it is the best compass for an individual's life decisions... in my opinion.

This obviously looks different for everyone.  For some folks, the thought of having a stash of inheritance for their kids, or family, really fulfills their hopes and desires for their life.  They choose to save and be frugal and invest in other activities in their life (even if they have the money to do other "cooler" things).

For others the thought of blowing cocaine off of expensive hookers ass's while they are passed out on one of their lambos could be described as their happiness.

For many (most) others our happiness lies somewhere in between but, shifts back and forth during our life cycle.

The toughest part about finding your "happiness compass" is laying down all of the social, family, and cultural pressures that are bestowed upon you.  Be a little selfish and dig down deep. Think about what you really want and what makes you truly happy .  Don't do things to make others happy or obtain their expectations of you... you will end up being bitter and resenting them or yourself.

This all sounds a little cliché but, since I have embraced this fully, I've never regretted a single life decision from that point on and I am far and above happier than I've ever been in my life before.  I've made some REALLY tough decisions over the years many of which affected my immediate family and friends.  However, assuming I have 10 seconds of thoughts prior to my last breathe, I can leave this world knowing that all is well and I've got no regrets.

*steps off soap box*

[wxa7115]

t is the ultimate marshmallow challenge.  Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.

For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property.  I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large.  And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.

That is where the real crux is, in my opinion.  Where that point is for each whale/minnow.

You sir, are very wise.

Anyone not following a similar recommendation/approach is going to end up with massive regrets before they die.

I see so many here joking about blowing their bitcoin "winnings" on fancy cars, frivolous shit and such, and inwardly I know some of them aren't really joking.

You know what they say ‘Youth is wasted on the young’ by the time we have the mental clarity to appreciate our actions and the long term effect they have on our lives we already missed those opportunities and they are way behind us.

It is natural to be excited about bitcoin and its potential and to want to have an endless party with our earnings when we are young but it is only when you are older when you realize that such thing is simply not worth it, one of those frivolous things are fancy cars, lambos as the community call them, even if they have no intention to buy specifically a Lamborghini, but why do we need one? Who are we trying to impress? It is way better to not focus ourselves in medium maximization and to focus on how we can use that medium to actually achieve happiness.

[JayJuanGee]

Saylor:

You don't have to invest all your money in #Bitcoin, just the money you want to keep.

https://t.co/bQjYkvRa1S

Haha, I love this guy.

That is a great quote.

I could not find the quote in that article, but I did find the quote in Saylor's tweet in which he referenced that Medium article.

Here's the link:  https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1333825940573593600

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/pizza-hut-accept-bitcoin-ethereum-pies-venezuela

[JayJuanGee]

t is the ultimate marshmallow challenge.  Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.

For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property.  I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large.  And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.

That is where the real crux is, in my opinion.  Where that point is for each whale/minnow.

You sir, are very wise.

Anyone not following a similar recommendation/approach is going to end up with massive regrets before they die.

I see so many here joking about blowing their bitcoin "winnings" on fancy cars, frivolous shit and such, and inwardly I know some of them aren't really joking.

You know what they say ‘Youth is wasted on the young’ by the time we have the mental clarity to appreciate our actions and the long term effect they have on our lives we already missed those opportunities and they are way behind us.

It is natural to be excited about bitcoin and its potential and to want to have an endless party with our earnings when we are young but it is only when you are older when you realize that such thing is simply not worth it, one of those frivolous things are fancy cars, lambos as the community call them, even if they have no intention to buy specifically a Lamborghini, but why do we need one? Who are we trying to impress? It is way better to not focus ourselves in medium maximization and to focus on how we can use that medium to actually achieve happiness.

Before 2010, I used to buy cars that were 3 years old or so, and that way they had mostly depreciated... but I had a kind of emergency situation with my car (that was then getting to be over 10 years old), and I decided to look at new cars - which then led me to luxury cars (not high end luxury, but higher up on the totem pole of what I had been buying previously).

I had already gone through stages of my life of building a pretty decent investment portfolio, and I had already gotten to the point that I could have just paid for the new car in cash, if I had chosen such.... so I thought why not treat myself.. and I have never regretted buying the luxury car and to have something that is nicer than what the average person drives and also nicer than what I had previously grown accustom..

I guess my point is that sometimes it is nice to treat yourself, especially if you have already invested for a long time and also engaged in frugality for a long time and delayed gratification.

By the way, I do know some older people (for OPsec reasons) I won't mention relations who likely do not have a lot of years left in them, but they still live nearly as frugal as they did when they were in their 20s, 30s and 40s.. and at some point, it seems that these more elderly people should be living it up a bit more.. just thinking out loud.. but sure, each person has to decide those spending, versus investing, versus consumption points versus frugality  for themselves, and sure I agree that sometimes it can feel pretty good to get a value meal.. or to save $10 by eating a round steak rather than a T-bone.. but sometimes it is also better to live it up a bit on some luxury goods, whether we are talking about hookers, lambos and blow or some other luxury goods.

[Wekkel]

Saylor:

You don't have to invest all your money in #Bitcoin, just the money you want to keep.

https://t.co/bQjYkvRa1S

Haha, I love this guy.

That is a great quote.

I could not find the quote in that article, but I did find the quote in Saylor's tweet in which he referenced that Medium article.

Here's the link:  https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1333825940573593600

Apologies, the link came with copying the Tweet text. I did not know the link was to a Medium article instead of the Tweet itself.

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.newsweek.com/hungarian-politician-anti-lgbtqi-party-caught-orgy-brussels-1551424

József Szájer been waving around with his Political Immunity to not be arrested 

lmfao

[Biodom]

Regarding frugality: once you go frugal, it is difficult to come back...everything looks darn expensive, causing buyer's remorse.
On the other hand, giving descendants a 50-100 year rein in luxury-why bother? Nothing productive comes out of it, typically.

On hunting: I am OK with rifle hunting small game, not so regarding bears and even wolves: you want to hunt them, fine, get some knives and maybe a spear and do it mano a mano.
want to hunt elephants.....foook YOU!

[Phil_S]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-29/bitcoin-and-china-are-winning-the-covid-19-monetary-revolution

Financial journalists, too, are capitulating: On Tuesday, the Financial Times’s Izabella Kaminska, a long-time cryptocurrency skeptic, conceded that Bitcoin had a valid use-case as a hedge against a dystopian future “in which the world slips towards authoritarianism and civil liberties cannot be taken for granted.” She is on to something there, as we shall see.

[yefi]

Think about what you really want and what makes you truly happy .

To not die; to not age; to experience continuous growth (not in the pituitary gland/gigantism way...)

Don't do things to make others happy

Each to their own, but that sounds FU.

[yefi]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-29/bitcoin-and-china-are-winning-the-covid-19-monetary-revolution

Financial journalists, too, are capitulating: On Tuesday, the Financial Times’s Izabella Kaminska, a long-time cryptocurrency skeptic, conceded that Bitcoin had a valid use-case as a hedge against a dystopian future “in which the world slips towards authoritarianism and civil liberties cannot be taken for granted.” She is on to something there, as we shall see.

Always had a soft spot for Niall. He was originally a sceptic, but I think his daughter bought in and convinced him to reanalyse his opinion.

Also, the swipe at Kaminska

[cAPSLOCK]

Think about what you really want and what makes you truly happy .

To not die; to not age; to experience continuous growth (not in the pituitary gland/gigantism way...)

Don't do things to make others happy

Each to their own, but that sounds FU.

I think what he meant was to not be a "people pleaser".  Someone who uses the motivation of fulfilling the assumed expectations of others as a prime motivating force.  I think this is very different than being selfless, generous or sacrificial for others.  It is more about getting approval from others by means of performance.

I personally know a lot about this flaw.

[philipma1957]

Think about what you really want and what makes you truly happy .

To not die; to not age; to experience continuous growth (not in the pituitary gland/gigantism way...)

Don't do things to make others happy

Each to their own, but that sounds FU.

I think what he meant was to not be a "people pleaser".  Someone who uses the motivation of fulfilling the assumed expectations of others as a prime motivating force.  I think this is very different than being selfless, generous or sacrificial for others.  It is more about getting approval from others by means of performance.

I personally know a lot about this flaw.

I like making some people happy. 
But I have learned making most people happy is simply too hard to do.
So I pick and choose whom to please and when to do so.

At 63 I am older then a lot of people on this thread.

BTC making me millions is nice if it ever does.
But I value a lot of other things in life more than millions or even billions in BTC.

[Phil_S]

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55148998

China's Chang'e-5 Moon mission probe touches down


The lander is expected to spend the next couple of days examining its surroundings and gathering up surface materials.

It has a number of instruments to facilitate this, including a camera, spectrometer, radar, a scoop and a drill.

The intention is to package about 2kg of "soil", or regolith, to send up to an orbiting vehicle that can then transport the samples to Earth.

It's 44 years since this was last achieved. That was the Soviet Luna 24 mission, which picked up just under 200g.