My TA says we are running too hot right now. Currently we are at the March 2021 price and it’s only December so we are roughly three months ahead of schedule.
Likely scenarios are:
1. My TA is shit
2. We are aiming for a 2013 crash (although I would say we have not yet gone parabolic so this is a lower risk)
3. We will stagnate at this price for 3 months and everyone will get bored
4. This time it is differentTM and This Is Gentlemen please pick the colour of your helicopter (no black helicopters please)
5. We are going to have a mild dump heading into early January and then bounce.
Personally I’m going with option 5. Again I am not trading this - it’s not worth the risk.
Edit: If we make it to 15 January without a meaningful drop, options 2 & 4 become more prominent (never forgetting option 1).
There are no facts to base 4. & 5. on them, so 3. looks most logical.
I think there are tons of facts for #4.
-Bitcoin has grown to a gigantic half trillion dollar network.
-Bitcoin is still ONLY worth a half trillion dollars.
-BIG money individuals and smaller organizations starting to take positions.
-Those who think it is a ponzi/tulips/bubble/pets.com/myspace will not But MANY MANY others will.
-Large institutions *beginning* to take positions.
-The biggest commercial banks and investment firms gone from "it's garbage" to "We expect 300k-600k BTC".
-There has been unprecedented OTC buying. Never in Bitcoin's history has the OTC market been so hot.
-Much analysis has been put into how much is left for early whales to sell etc. Not much agreement other than it's probably not much.
-Governments attacking tokens the qualify as securities but not Bitcoin effectively.
-At least one central bank openly endorsing bitcoin use.
And the craziest part. All the people realizing what bitcoin is at this point? Are also realizing that the fire is lit and they cannot wait to take aposition without it being costly.
That feedback loop Satoshi mentioned? Yeah the fact it was ever worth ANYTHING is the miracle. But as to where it goes?
That part is just getting started.
this is funny. in a very good way. the bull runs i watched closely since march 2013 always went like:
- forum sort of did not acknowledge the bull, many think we are still in a bear market
- when it becomes evident that bull run is on, small outbursts of euphoria can be seen
- full blown euphoria kicks in at later stage of bull
- during final stage of bull, only alpha geniuses aka masters of the universes aka the new wealthy elite is posting in here
- then some poor sucker mentions "this time is different" and "new paradigm" - which somehow always seem to stop the bull run single handedly
- multi month / multi year depression kicks in
what kind of bull run is going to be expected when euphoria and "this time is different" are met
at the beginning of a bull year?
it is really funny how bitcoin price over the years seem to follow patterns closely while doing unexpected things all the time.
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