Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary.

Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000.....

Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves). 

It does not "need'' it, but bull markets with significant corrections last longer and grind higher.
So, it you want to achieve a higher price at the peak, then you "need" it.
Bitcoin does not care, of course.

Why can't we have a correction down to $60k (or to say $75k) from $100k? Would that be a significant correction? Hell yeah. But now, frankly I don't see a reason for a correction. No FUD, no overheating (we are not in the parabolic phase), no inflation so why should we go down now? 

if straight up from here, it will not get to 100K with 99% probability.
WTF you are so concerned about corrections...leveraged a bit too much, lol?

You know I'm a retarded permabull. But take a look at the BTC graph. It's not a straight line. We're having some sideways and small dumps yet there's upwards pressure and we keep on growing. R u trying to say we can't reach $100k going like this? 

[1715503112]

1715503112

[1715503112]

1715503112

[1715503112]

1715503112

[1715503112]

1715503112

[1715503112]

1715503112

[Biodom]

In memoriam...of something

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrp

Say what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore.
Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation).

XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations.

The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) .

I don't see how the ethereum pre-sale and issuance schedule makes it anything different than a security.

After ripple SEC will surely have ether in it's sights. Forever looking over their shoulders now.

Absolutely, especially since there is, apparently, no time frame limitations.
Another point to mention-i got a link to FTX from somewhere and there it was: USA is in an "interesting" group, together with N korea, iran, Crimea, etc.
Same for many other investment sites (Deribit comes to mind).
We are being cordoned off-all thanks to SEC and their malcontented Howey test, which should have been buried decades ago.
Add to that the concocted 'accredited investor' statute.
It's like you want darwinian evolution, but handicap some people in the race.

Fuck XRP and good riddance.  And fuck Eth too for that matter.  

Accredited investor schemes are there for a reason. And the reason is because Aunt Mabel can’t be trusted to get caught up in bumblefuck Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect.  So she goes screaming off to her Senator for a resolution.  And the resolution is that Aunt Mabel isn’t allowed to play with the big boys anymore.  

There are plenty of accredited investors that do their dough all the time.  But they aren’t supposed to whine about it.  

If you have 40 BTC right now, you are an accredited investor.  And that amount is falling all the time.  By the end of this bull it might be 5 BTC or less.

why is it always about personalities? Not my problem, but it is a factor causing less meritocracy in finance/investment.
I posit that it is a significant long term problem.
You think that SEC is not btc problem? They (and some other lettered entities) can always made up some if prodded hard enough.

SEC is not a BTC risk.  There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC.  Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP.  There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same).

The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins.  Bitcoin dominance will soar further. 

Wrong, or at least a 'yuge simplification.
SEC could affect derivatives, etc. Is WBTC a security? What about LN or Liquid? Wham, bam.
Plus, they are working in cahoots with all other agencies (too many to mention by name).

[serveria.com]

SEC is not a BTC risk.  There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC.  Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP.  There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same).

The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins.  Bitcoin dominance will soar further.  

I also see it like this. I doubt the SEC is going to target ETH though. The case is not as easy as it is for XRP, and interest in ETH is probably already widespread enough (among largish companies and potential lobbyists) to have crossed the too big to fail threshold.

Grayscale have a ETH trust don't they? Frankly, I don't think these guys would do it without knowing ETH won't be banned by SEC. You just don't gamble with that boatload of fiat.  

[explorer]

Willy Woo
@woonomic
The growth in capital flowing into BTC is now equivalent to Apr 2017 of last cycle. The early bull phase is over, the main phase has started; it's come early.

hmmm...peak in July 2021? Interesting...that would be a first one.
I still think that we might be going for two peaks in 2021: first one in March-April, followed by a "valley" during summer, next, a larger peak in Nov-Dec (traditional time frame).

Something like 50-70K to 30-35K, then to 150-200K.

   My issue with that:  Doubling in 3 or 4 months is not much of a 'peak'.  If you are thinking 2013 style, it was more like $15 to $250 from January to April.  That was a peak.

[Biodom]

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary.

Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000.....

Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves).  

It does not "need'' it, but bull markets with significant corrections last longer and grind higher.
So, it you want to achieve a higher price at the peak, then you "need" it.
Bitcoin does not care, of course.

Why can't we have a correction down to $60k (or to say $75k) from $100k? Would that be a significant correction? Hell yeah. But now, frankly I don't see a reason for a correction. No FUD, no overheating (we are not in the parabolic phase), no inflation so why should we go down now?  

if straight up from here, it will not get to 100K with 99% probability.
WTF you are so concerned about corrections...leveraged a bit too much, lol?

You know I'm a retarded permabull. But take a look at the BTC graph. It's not a straight line. We're having some sideways and small dumps yet there's upwards pressure and we keep on growing. R u trying to say we can't reach $100k going like this?  

Pretty much a straight line (or rather ever accelerating parabola) since roughly 11K and no, we can't reach 100K without some corrections (at least 20%).
I am not even sure what is the argument to not have corrections, unless you are in a highly leveraged position. If so, good luck on your "luck".

Willy Woo
@woonomic
The growth in capital flowing into BTC is now equivalent to Apr 2017 of last cycle. The early bull phase is over, the main phase has started; it's come early.

hmmm...peak in July 2021? Interesting...that would be a first one.
I still think that we might be going for two peaks in 2021: first one in March-April, followed by a "valley" during summer, next, a larger peak in Nov-Dec (traditional time frame).

Something like 50-70K to 30-35K, then to 150-200K.

   My issue with that:  Doubling in 3 or 4 months is not much of a 'peak'.  If you are thinking 2013 style, it was more like $15 to $250 from January to April.  That was a peak.

from 3.8K in March 2020 to 63.3K in April 2021 is EXACTLY the same factor as in 2013 (15 to 250) and 63.3 K is inside my 50-70K suggestion for a first hump.

[HairyMaclairy]

Wrong, or at least a 'yuge simplification.
SEC could affect derivatives, etc. Is WBTC a security? What about LN or Liquid? Wham, bam.
Plus, they are working in cahoots with all other agencies (too many to mention by name).

Is WBTC a security?   Well if ETH is a security, then WBTC is a security. You aren’t allowed to go hawk pork belly futures on Craigslist.  But that doesn’t mean that pork bellies are themselves securities.  Bitcoin unaffected.  

Is LN a security? No it’s not because there is no central mind controlling the distribution of coins. Bitcoin unaffected.  

Is Liquid a security?   Maybe, I don’t know enough about it. AFAIK it’s not sold to retail punters anyway, so a ban on selling to retail would be irrelevant.  Bitcoin unaffected.

Is the SEC in cahoots with the NSA?   Of course they are.  They are all part of the US government. But the US government is not a monolithic thing - it is a clusterfuck of competing interests all fighting each other.  Most of the time the US government can’t tie its own shoes.

[serveria.com]

Pretty much a straight line (or rather ever accelerating parabola) since roughly 11K and no, we can't reach 100K without some corrections (at least 20%).
I am not even sure what is the argument to not have corrections, unless you are in a highly leveraged position. If so, good luck on your "luck".

Hmm that doesn't look like a straight line to me:



Perhaps we are looking at different graphs? I'm not a TA expert or something I'm just sharing my point of view.  And no, I don't play with leverage.

[Biodom]

Pretty much a straight line (or rather ever accelerating parabola) since roughly 11K and no, we can't reach 100K without some corrections (at least 20%).
I am not even sure what is the argument to not have corrections, unless you are in a highly leveraged position. If so, good luck on your "luck".

Hmm that doesn't look like a straight line to me:



Perhaps we are looking at different graphs? I'm not a TA expert or something I'm just sharing my point of view.   And no, I don't play with leverage.

look at the weekly...it is a parabola, no doubt about it..., albeit an early/short one.

[wxa7115]

Lol, this reminds me when one of my friends bought some Magic: The Gathering boxes on the early days of the game(not alpha, beta editions or any of the really expensive stuff unfortunately) and my other friends made fun of him because he did so as an investment, but it turns out he was right and made some nice coin out of it, so as long as there is demand and the supply is limited there is money to be made if you hold long enough. 

[explorer]

Pretty much a straight line (or rather ever accelerating parabola) since roughly 11K and no, we can't reach 100K without some corrections (at least 20%).
I am not even sure what is the argument to not have corrections, unless you are in a highly leveraged position. If so, good luck on your "luck".

Hmm that doesn't look like a straight line to me:



Perhaps we are looking at different graphs? I'm not a TA expert or something I'm just sharing my point of view.   And no, I don't play with leverage.

   Fairly straight on a log chart tho  




   And just for fun, the lower line hits 100k around April...

[HairyMaclairy]

SEC is not a BTC risk.  There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC.  Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP.  There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same).

The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins.  Bitcoin dominance will soar further.  

I also see it like this. I doubt the SEC is going to target ETH though. The case is not as easy as it is for XRP, and interest in ETH is probably already widespread enough (among largish companies and potential lobbyists) to have crossed the too big to fail threshold.

Grayscale have a ETH trust don't they? Frankly, I don't think these guys would do it without knowing ETH won't be banned by SEC. You just don't gamble with that boatload of fiat.  

Grayscale has XRP in their Digital Large Cap Trust....

[explorer]

SEC is not a BTC risk.  There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC.  Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP.  There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same).

The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins.  Bitcoin dominance will soar further.  

I also see it like this. I doubt the SEC is going to target ETH though. The case is not as easy as it is for XRP, and interest in ETH is probably already widespread enough (among largish companies and potential lobbyists) to have crossed the too big to fail threshold.

Grayscale have a ETH trust don't they? Frankly, I don't think these guys would do it without knowing ETH won't be banned by SEC. You just don't gamble with that boatload of fiat.  

Grayscale has XRP in their Digital Large Cap Trust....

Writing it off won't be enough to blip the bottom line as BTC explodes...   I'm sure there's a tax incentive in there somewhere...

[Toxic2040]

#stronghands

[Arriemoller]

Moving is complicated. A big problem is you may have family/friends/whatnot at the old place who you can fall back on if things go weird short-term. Move to a new place and that's not there. So the lack of any kind of a safety net (social or financial) keeps people from just being able to "move".

That's totally not counting the xenophobic nature of people to reject anyone new in their community.

TL;DR Arrie the xenophobe says Africans are stupid for living where they live. Should they move to cooler climates, they're sure to find friendly landmines to welcome them.

That's just bullshit, and I never singled out Africans.

[Arriemoller]

Moving is complicated. A big problem is you may have family/friends/whatnot at the old place who you can fall back on if things go weird short-term. Move to a new place and that's not there. So the lack of any kind of a safety net (social or financial) keeps people from just being able to "move".

That's totally not counting the xenophobic nature of people to reject anyone new in their community.

TL;DR Arrie the xenophobe says Africans are stupid for living where they live. Should they move to cooler climates, they're sure to find friendly landmines to welcome them.

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

If anybody continues joking about AIX (RS6000's), i'm gonna post about AS400's or S/390's
Fun fact: When travelling from an AIX based course at the IBM technology center in Montpellier, my car broke down in Aix de Provence.

I believe Alexander proved that to be wrong.

[HairyMaclairy]

SEC is not a BTC risk.  There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC.  Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP.  There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same).

The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins.  Bitcoin dominance will soar further.  

I also see it like this. I doubt the SEC is going to target ETH though. The case is not as easy as it is for XRP, and interest in ETH is probably already widespread enough (among largish companies and potential lobbyists) to have crossed the too big to fail threshold.

Grayscale have a ETH trust don't they? Frankly, I don't think these guys would do it without knowing ETH won't be banned by SEC. You just don't gamble with that boatload of fiat.  

Grayscale has XRP in their Digital Large Cap Trust....

Writing it off won't be enough to blip the bottom line as BTC explodes...   I'm sure there's a tax incentive in there somewhere...

You are correct. XRP is only 1.6%.

[cAPSLOCK]

In memoriam...of something

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrp

Say what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore.
Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation).

XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations.

The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) .

I don't see how the ethereum pre-sale and issuance schedule makes it anything different than a security.

After ripple SEC will surely have ether in it's sights. Forever looking over their shoulders now.

Absolutely, especially since there is, apparently, no time frame limitations.
Another point to mention-i got a link to FTX from somewhere and there it was: USA is in an "interesting" group, together with N korea, iran, Crimea, etc.
Same for many other investment sites (Deribit comes to mind).
We are being cordoned off-all thanks to SEC and their malcontented Howey test, which should have been buried decades ago.
Add to that the concocted 'accredited investor' statute.
It's like you want darwinian evolution, but handicap some people in the race.

Fuck XRP and good riddance.  And fuck Eth too for that matter. 

Accredited investor schemes are there for a reason. And the reason is because Aunt Mabel can’t be trusted to get caught up in bumblefuck Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect.  So she goes screaming off to her Senator for a resolution.  And the resolution is that Aunt Mabel isn’t allowed to play with the big boys anymore. 

There are plenty of accredited investors that do their dough all the time.  But they aren’t supposed to whine about it. 

If you have 40 BTC right now, you are an accredited investor.  And that amount is falling all the time.  By the end of this bull it might be 5 BTC or less.

why is it always about personalities? Not my problem, but it is a factor causing less meritocracy in finance/investment.
I posit that it is a significant long term problem.
You think that SEC is not btc problem? They (and some other lettered entities) can always made up some if prodded hard enough.

SEC is not a BTC risk.  There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC.  Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP.  There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same).

The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins.  Bitcoin dominance will soar further. 

Projects like ETH or ZEC should be feeling a little wriggly though.

[Arriemoller]

Moving is complicated. A big problem is you may have family/friends/whatnot at the old place who you can fall back on if things go weird short-term. Move to a new place and that's not there. So the lack of any kind of a safety net (social or financial) keeps people from just being able to "move".

That's totally not counting the xenophobic nature of people to reject anyone new in their community.

TL;DR Arrie the xenophobe says Africans are stupid for living where they live. Should they move to cooler climates, they're sure to find friendly landmines to welcome them.

Also if Africans don’t like being poor, they should just be rich instead

What's wrong with that?
That's what we westerners have been doing for the last 150 years, are you saying that it's wrong for Africans to do the same?
Are you saying that they should just stay poor?
And by the way, since the "Africans" seriously adopted market economy they have rapidly pulled themselves out of poverty, quite a few African countries have a well of middle class now.

[El duderino_]

[janggernaut]

Who is still HODL until now???

Forget trading, better HODLLL!