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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1.1%)
7/28 - 11 (11.6%)
8/4 - 16 (16.8%)
8/11 - 7 (7.4%)
8/18 - 5 (5.3%)
8/25 - 7 (7.4%)
After August - 48 (50.5%)
Total Voters: 95

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26447798 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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December 30, 2020, 11:14:11 PM

keynesians argue that the inelasticity of the gold supply was crippling economic growth during gold standard times in the 19th century. that is the origin of the narrative of deflation being negative for the economy. and there is definitely some truth to this.
mainstream economists see the hard cap of bitcoin and think this is even worse than gold, since bitcoin is even more scarce than gold. what they dont get is that since bitcoin is software it has properties that physical objects like gold can not have. bitcoin is scarce and capped at 21 mio units, but it can be divided into 100mio satoshis per btc (and even further if necessary). when economic growth happens, bitcoin supply can act elastic simply by ongoing division. the trick is that in fiat the elasticity is displayed in front of the dot, more money units are needed, leading to inflation. with bitcoin the elasticity is moving to the right side of the dot, making whole bitcoin more valuable without inflation.

bitcoin is not deflationary because it is digitally divisible ad infinitum. it can swallow the entire value of any economy by getting more valuable. with gold you end up with impossible to measure gold dust and that is why it hinders economic growth when used as base monetary unit.

bitcoin fixes this. it is scarce and abundant at the same time. the schrödinger cat of money.

Well put nice work here.
d_eddie
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December 30, 2020, 11:15:10 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), 600watt (1)

keynesians argue that the inelasticity of the gold supply was crippling economic growth during gold standard times in the 19th century. that is the origin of the narrative of deflation being negative for the economy. and there is definitely some truth to this.

the trick is that in fiat the elasticity is displayed in front of the dot, more money units are needed, leading to inflation. with bitcoin the elasticity is moving to the right side of the dot, making whole bitcoin more valuable without inflation.

Which leads to the logically consequent question - is there anything in the protocol, or some new software layer in the works - that can provide proof of non-hypothecation?

I'm sure that given the ongoing custom - habits are hard to break - most of the traditional finance world won't take "move inflation the other way - to the right of the decimal dot" so easily. They'd rather rehypothecate, as they are doing for gold and for derivatives based on gold (basically paper money). This is as close to double spending as you can get with btc - through a layer of obfuscating paper. Much too close for my taste.

Once TPTB have their hands on bitcoin, they will come up with new and ingenious ways to keep doing old, disingenuous deeds. One way to avoid that would be a simple way to make sure each satoshi is only hypothecated once, if at all.

Example: I buy a bitcoin ETF, "bakt" by the RealThing. Good. Now I want to know the public address of the btc backing my ETF, and be sure it only backs my shares, not someone else's too. And a loan. And some enterprise capital in some other firm. If such information is easy to find automatically, we can be relatively sure that there will be stern laws against re-hypothecation, and they will be inflexibly enforced.
lightfoot
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December 30, 2020, 11:21:11 PM

Corn is bigger than Berkshire Hathaway.

Poor Warren Buffett. Cool
I'd have to think before trading a bitcoin for a share of BRK-A. Might blow past it anytime now....

(Jesus this is fun)
Wekkel
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yes


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December 30, 2020, 11:23:34 PM

... the schrödinger cat of money. ...

Interesting but I think it won’t satisfy the Keyenesians. They will point out that the fact that one Bitcoin (or a fraction) increases in value is the dreaded deflation, killing business (and newborn kitties). This is the point one needs to counter.
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December 30, 2020, 11:28:09 PM

is there anything in the protocol, or some new software layer in the works - that can provide proof of non-hypothecation?

Example: I buy a bitcoin ETF, "bakt" by the RealThing. Good. Now I want to know the public address of the btc backing my ETF, and be sure it only backs my shares, not someone else's too.

The only thing I can think right now, off the top of my head, is moving the coins to a multisig where the original creditor (the first ETF buyer in my example) can veto any movement; for example, a 2-of-2.
d_eddie
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December 30, 2020, 11:29:06 PM

... the schrödinger cat of money. ...

Interesting but I think it won’t satisfy the Keyenesians. They will point out that the fact that one Bitcoin (or a fraction) increases in value is the dreaded deflation, killing business (and newborn kitties). This is the point one needs to counter.

I agree they won't be satisfied, that's why I jumped straight to rehypothecation  Smiley
d_eddie
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December 30, 2020, 11:30:12 PM

Corn is bigger than Berkshire Hathaway.

Poor Warren Buffett. Cool
I'd have to think before trading a bitcoin for a share of BRK-A. Might blow past it anytime now....

(Jesus this is fun)
I would do it immediately. As in "right now, or I might change my mind tomorrow."  Wink
LFC_Bitcoin
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December 30, 2020, 11:31:48 PM

@Bitcoin_ator

BTC is like the GTA train...
Nothing can stop it!🚆


https://twitter.com/bitcoin_ator/status/1344408492162035713?s=21


We coming for you Apple.





@BITCOIN_USD_OG
100% of 33.34 million  BTC addresses are in the green! 🚀

https://twitter.com/btc_usd_og/status/1344419360039960577?s=21



https://twitter.com/tyler/status/1344422062371303427?s=21
xhomerx10
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December 30, 2020, 11:39:41 PM

Apparently, golfers are also prone to boating accidents...




This guy could even be one clever WO-er!

 Well he does have some corn beside him.
Torque
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December 30, 2020, 11:41:49 PM

Which leads to the logically consequent question - is there anything in the protocol, or some new software layer in the works - that can provide proof of non-hypothecation?

I'm sure that given the ongoing custom - habits are hard to break - most of the traditional finance world won't take "move inflation the other way - to the right of the decimal dot" so easily. They'd rather rehypothecate, as they are doing for gold and for derivatives based on gold (basically paper money). This is as close to double spending as you can get with btc - through a layer of obfuscating paper. Much too close for my taste.

Once TPTB have their hands on bitcoin, they will come up with new and ingenious ways to keep doing old, disingenuous deeds. One way to avoid that would be a simple way to make sure each satoshi is only hypothecated once, if at all.

Example: I buy a bitcoin ETF, "bakt" by the RealThing. Good. Now I want to know the public address of the btc backing my ETF, and be sure it only backs my shares, not someone else's too. And a loan. And some enterprise capital in some other firm. If such information is easy to find automatically, we can be relatively sure that there will be stern laws against re-hypothecation, and they will be inflexibly enforced.

Sadly though, even if Bitcoin is the perfect form of money, it lives in an imperfect world with imperfect people.

When Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, the Wall Street banksters will both a) re-hypothecate Bitcoin shares, and b) make sure no transparent audit trail exists for those phantom shares.

There's little that we can do about it.
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December 30, 2020, 11:43:43 PM
Last edit: December 31, 2020, 12:30:39 AM by yefi
Merited by 600watt (1)


That chart is quite remarkable if accurate. Even during the last two bull runs, the liquid supply increased. This looks like the first major dip in Bitcoin's history?



(edit)
Live version of chart: https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=&m=supply.LiquidIlliquidSum
Their methodology: https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-liquid-supply/
BobLawblaw
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December 30, 2020, 11:53:23 PM

Hah ! Just caught this in my node logs while glancing over.

Haven't seen this one before.

2020-12-30T23:47:54Z ERROR: AcceptBlockHeader: Consensus::CheckBlockHeader: 0fd7ab36246daf61802e10a0316cc2b0f17a1d6404bfdd53878ba34e158b4680, high-hash, proof of work failed
2020-12-30T23:47:54Z Disconnecting and discouraging peer 39.98.236.28:34696!
d_eddie
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December 31, 2020, 12:06:28 AM

Not even a zero in the hash. Well, one. That node's got problems for sure.
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December 31, 2020, 12:13:09 AM
Merited by OROBTC (1)

29.2k!

What a number to wake up to!
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December 31, 2020, 12:14:15 AM
Last edit: December 31, 2020, 10:36:59 AM by Krubster
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1)

Heh, found the first post I made on this forum, made by my previous user (never knew I could search by username, so I never found this post before).

I really only registered to buy some PM from the user 2weiX, after reading this thread. I had to write one forum message before I could privately message him, so this is the first and only messsage I wrote.

Hi All,

Chris from Sweden here.

Been lurking on this site for months without register, mainly in the Economics and the Bitcoin Discussion (sub)forums.

I bought bitcoins when the price was less than 10 USD per BTC and I still hold tight to most of them, even though I've sold some both on the way up and way down of the recent bubble to secure my initial investment.

I still have great faith in bitcoins. :-)

Cheers

I never changed the password after the data breach, so I've lost access to this account since a long time ago.

This is the message I received when I tried log in again.

Quote
Sorry Guest, you are banned from using this forum!
Your account is locked because it sat inactive for years after the password hashes were leaked in 2015, and was therefore at high risk of being hacked.
Email reactivate_2019_bgbs5 @ bitcointalk.org to get it unlocked.
Toxic2040
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December 31, 2020, 12:14:23 AM

Records shattering to the left and the right..bitcoin closes at $28,881.30 on the daily candle after hitting a high of $29,010.32 for the session.

Currently trading higher at $29,150ish bitcoin looks to challange the 30k mark before years end 2020.

All ahead flank.

#dyor


4h



D

#stronghands

OROBTC
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December 31, 2020, 12:14:33 AM

29.2k!

What a number to wake up to!


Ahh, that was me.  You're welcome!

 Wink
ivomm
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December 31, 2020, 12:17:18 AM

Aaaand, a new ATH $29150 29278 (this has escalated pretty fast)! I'm going to bed now. I hope tomorrow we will be above 30K. #hodlsleep
Biodom
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December 31, 2020, 12:18:42 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Which leads to the logically consequent question - is there anything in the protocol, or some new software layer in the works - that can provide proof of non-hypothecation?

I'm sure that given the ongoing custom - habits are hard to break - most of the traditional finance world won't take "move inflation the other way - to the right of the decimal dot" so easily. They'd rather rehypothecate, as they are doing for gold and for derivatives based on gold (basically paper money). This is as close to double spending as you can get with btc - through a layer of obfuscating paper. Much too close for my taste.

Once TPTB have their hands on bitcoin, they will come up with new and ingenious ways to keep doing old, disingenuous deeds. One way to avoid that would be a simple way to make sure each satoshi is only hypothecated once, if at all.

Example: I buy a bitcoin ETF, "bakt" by the RealThing. Good. Now I want to know the public address of the btc backing my ETF, and be sure it only backs my shares, not someone else's too. And a loan. And some enterprise capital in some other firm. If such information is easy to find automatically, we can be relatively sure that there will be stern laws against re-hypothecation, and they will be inflexibly enforced.

AFAIK, there are no such instruments, currently.
In case of GBTC, private investors give them cash, which they then use to buy "real bitcoin", but then issue GBTC shares in lieu of such bitcoin.
Private investors have rights to actual bitcoin (after a year), but I don't think that GBTC shareholders can request to redeem their funds in btc (to my knowledge) and even if they do, it would be counterproductive since GBTC is trading at a premium to its btc holdings.

However, maybe funds like you described would be coming when, hopefully, Avanti bank and Kraken bank would finally start to function in Wyoming.
According to Caitlin Long, Wyoming passed a law that prohibits re-hypothetication of "digital assets" like bitcoin and they are unique in that regard.
hopefully, they would have an investable vehicle that you can put in IRA.
However, it is not a big deal, but I already have two btc funds in my Roth IRA-GBTC and CXBTF (XBT provider-some Swedish ETN).
CXBTF did the best since I bought it, but it is really illiquid because SEC stopped it trading on US exchanges shortly after I bought it.

Interestingly, most people don't know it, but US investors can buy Canadian bitcoin ETN (at least in Fidelity IRA and Roth Ira), trading on Toronto stock exchange (QBTC-U.TO).
The good part-it has less premium to btc (when you are buying). The bad thing-it has less premium to btc when you are selling. If you catch it at a wrong time, you might pay premium to buy, but sell with almost no premium if you don't time it right.
I know that Fidelity does it, but you need to call to their foreign trade desk and pay $50/trade.
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December 31, 2020, 12:20:13 AM

29.2k!

What a number to wake up to!


Ahh, that was me.  You're welcome!

 Wink

Haha well played Wink
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