Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k   Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly... 

Was a bit surprised to see the enthusiastic reactions / merits to the "ways of making money from your BTC" posts myself. It all sounded ridiculously dangerous. And of course too good to be true.

[1714712536]

1714712536

[Biodom]

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k   Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly...  

Convoluted contracts. What are you talking about? blockfi? that is not optimal, sure, I would never give Zack my btc.
However, selling covered calls is a very well known financial technique that involves NO lending and, frankly, is VASTLY advantageous to the outright selling since you are not selling anything at ALL, UNLESS the price is above whatever the value is, chosen by yourself and nobody else. Covered calls assume that you write them against whatever bitcoin you sent to the broker, they are not "naked", therefore "were not able to adequately cover" is not possible and just shows that you need to research this topic more.

Of course it s not better than hodling, but it is superior to repetitive selling up or down, skimming small amounts (or not small, whatever) that you advocate.
Selling covered calls is actually a perfect trade for mined coins since you can lock in value without a sale or assuming a sale at MUCH higher levels if you chose to do it.
If you are lucky, then you retain your btc and if not, you still sold btc at a higher to much higher price (depending on your chosen price for the contract: 75, 100, 200K).
However, if btc is not sold in the end, you generate income and not cap. gains-maybe it matters for some.

Psychologically, you should consider bitcoin on which you wrote covered calls as pre-sold right now for the price attained at some moment in the future. The person on the other of the trade gives you cash right now for the RIGHT to buy btc at that future date at the price that YOU chose (be it 75, 100 or 200K). Yea, tough luck if btc is at 300K and the guy would approx 30X his money and you only get 200K/btc+whatever premium is currently there. Your counterparty would made bank, but so what, you still get your 200K, keep the premium and did not dilly-dally with "little" buys/sells at 56K.

[somac.]

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k   Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly... 

The thing you fail to grasp is that by selling covered call options to fund my lifestyle and purchases I will not be reducing my stack, In fact it will even help me accumulate more then I could before. What's more, I don't have to risk keeping my BTC on the exchange to still have it fully cover my calls. I can use margin so that those coins are kept in my own wallet (not the exchange). A little diversification is not a bad thing, especially when you don't have to sell BTC from your stack to do it.

I think the trouble some of you have with this may be a lack of understanding/experience with derivatives in general. I can get almost 10% per month with covered calls, and my counter-party exchange risk is reduced by using margin. Yes its slightly risky, yes you might miss out on some capital gains, but in the long term it will do pretty fucking well. I’ve done covered calls among other options strategies for years in the legacy markets and I can tell you right now these premiums are amazing in comparision.

Thank you? your kidding right? If I had listened to you my stack would have been reduced substantially with your constant insistence of selling BTC on the way up. Now that's a stupid strategy. I can assure you my stack will be much larger at 200k then it is now. The only people to thank around here are the ones that tell you to never sell any of your BTC, unless there is an emergency.

[Arriemoller]

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell

[somac.]

Convoluted contracts. What are you talking about? blockfi? that is not optimal, sure, I would never give Zack my btc.
However, selling covered calls is a very well known financial technique that involves NO lending and, frankly, is VASTLY advantageous to the outright selling since you are not selling anything at ALL, UNLESS the price is above whatever the value is, chosen by yourself and nobody else. Covered calls assume that you write them against whatever bitcoin you sent to the broker, they are not "naked", therefore "were not able to adequately cover" is not possible and just shows that you need to research this topic more.

Of course it s not better than hodling, but it is superior to repetitive selling up or down, skimming small amounts (or not small, whatever) that you advocate.
Selling covered calls is actually a perfect trade for mined coins since you can lock in value without a sale or assuming a sale at MUCH higher levels if you chose to do it.
If you are lucky, then you retain your btc and if not, you still sold btc at a higher to much higher price (depending on your chosen price for the contract: 75, 100, 200K).
Hoverver, if btc is not sold in the end, you generate income and not cap. gains-maybe it matters for some.

Spot on.

JJG, this one seems to be beyond your ability of understanding or comfort level. Just stick to selling your stack as the price goes up. I and others wish to maintain our current stack or increase it.

[Biodom]

with your constant insistence of selling BTC on the way up. Now that's a stupid strategy.

indeed, it is, no question about it, apart from the fact that btc keeps going up and bails out those who pursue this.

[Arriemoller]

I remember when I was a boy and watched the moon landing on TV, I was so sure that we would just keep on evolving our spacecrafts and ability to move in space just like we had done with airplanes.
I thought that I as an adult would be able to take a holiday on the moon.
I was very disappointed, and a little baffled when the space programs just halted.
I am therefore very glad that so many different entities are now starting to do what I thought would happen during my adulthood. It is now to late for me to go to space, but I'm glad that today's kids will be able to take that vacation.
I had the lunar landing craft and some other models when I was a kid, they disappeared somewhere along adult life. I'm just now buying some new models, both from the old Apollo era and the present. Some of them will be flying, others will be on display.
And this time I will also get a Soyuz rocket model, it has after all been with us ever since I was a boy.

Just some random Sunday thoughts.

[xhomerx10]

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell

New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

[Biodom]

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell

New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

may a little frog
acquire shiny laser eyes,
asking for a friend

# if you can, please
haiku

[Arriemoller]

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell

New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

Cooler than I thought
I will see if it fits me
Thank you very much

[JayJuanGee]

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k   Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

That shock from the 2017/18 bull run dump still sits very deep. Even though the 2013/14 dump was bad as well, 2017/18 was a real shock.

Objectively speaking the 2018 correction was NOT as deep or as long as the 2014 correction.. so not sure what you are saying exactly, except that some people may have taken steps to make one worse than another or "shocked" in some other kind of emotional way.. which is NOT really looking at the matter from a more objective perspective.

Taking profits in case of a surprising dump is not bad.

Perhaps?  But there are people who do not take profits in anticipation of a surprise dump and they ride it through, and so far bitcoin's history those people have done pretty well, and sometimes even better than those who made short term profits by fucking around in ways that may have been greater than anticipated and then if they profit they end up doing it again and again and again, then end up losing way more value than if they would have employed a lot more straight forward strategy, including buying on dips, DCA and HODL.. .. in other words, selling to buy back cheaper may or may not play out and may have much worse results when it is repeated several times.

I know we will pass 100k. But I believe we will see a bigger dump before we pass 60k.

Good for you to know the future.  You are probably really rich because of such talents that you supposedly have.

If 2013 cycle repeats the real run will be in the end of the year.

Sure.  As long as you put a BIG "if" in there, then you might be somewhat o.k... but you sound like you want to gamble.. hopefully you do not lose too many of your coins (to the extent that you actually have any) with such a planned play.

And between March until end of summer it could be bearish.

It sure "could".. but it might not, also.  So what you gonna do about the variety of possibilities?  You are ONLY going to play one direction that "could" happen, or do you have a better plan than that?

At the end, we are all just speculating.

This might be a place in which the "royal we" does not work so well, especially when it is purported by a gambling dweeb who likely does not even have a very good BTC accumulation plan, amiNOTrite?

Some are good at it and some not.

Actually, that is likely true.  Some people have better plans than others.  I have a suspicion that you are probably not very good at speculation, especially given some of your historical posts... so I have my doubts about whether you are a good source for framing "perspectives" in regards to lilie fiend.

Edit: I am also curious about that income you talking about.

Another one distracted by possible income - which is probably a sign that you have NOT accumulated enough bitcoin over the years.. sucks to be uie.  By the way, am I getting you mixed up with someone else?  Maybe I am, but hey... these posts are public, so some of your ideas are coming off as a bit weird, which may explain some of the content and tone of my post. 

[Elwar]

Just watched the Silk Road movie (Don't worry FBI I paid for it in the location where it is available for paying to view it.)

It was pretty well done.

A bit sympathetic to the cop who stole money from him and used entrapment to incite a fake murder (which was never part of the actual charges, but brought up in order to paint Ross as a murderer).

The real movie should include the judge going overboard in her zealous distain for freedom.


It is almost impossible to live a life of freedom in an unfree world.

[JayJuanGee]

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k   Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

How about elaborating on that a little more, somac.?   ELI5...

"10s of thousands USD a month" 10s, plural assuming bare minimum of $20k to stay technically correct.
"under 10 BTC too" assuming BTC10 to stay technically correct (~BTC9.99999999999)

Hory.. sheeeiiiitttt....

The last time I checked, bitcoin does not have that many places after the decimal...   
 

So $240k/yr ($20k/m*12m/yr) on a $556.000 (BTC10*$55.600) so let me tell you about my scam investment that brings ~43%/yr  

I surely agree with the remainder of where you went with the rest of you post and the overall point that you made regarding what seems to be exaggerated as fuck claim(s)... plus you get your dick sucked by a 10 every two weeks, whether you want it or not.  

[xhomerx10]

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell

New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

may a little frog
acquire shiny laser eyes,
asking for a friend

# if you can, please
haiku

 Breaking the silence
 A frog ask for laser eyes
 Little tiny eyes



 wait



 I think that's better.

[Biodom]

Is laser eyes cool
I can not decide on that
Time will have to tell

New fads come and go.
Are laser eyes all that cool?
Here.  See for yourself.




 $100K

may a little frog
acquire shiny laser eyes,
asking for a friend

# if you can, please
haiku

 Breaking the silence
 A frog ask for laser eyes
 Little tiny eyes



 wait



 I think that's better.

Supercool, much obliged, the froggy is happy. It would take some time to cache, probably.

[HairyMaclairy]

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k   Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly...  

The thing you fail to grasp is that by selling covered call options to fund my lifestyle and purchases I will not be reducing my stack, In fact it will even help me accumulate more then I could before. What's more, I don't have to risk keeping my BTC on the exchange to still have it fully cover my calls. I can use margin so that those coins are kept in my own wallet (not the exchange). A little diversification is not a bad thing, especially when you don't have to sell BTC from your stack to do it.

I think the trouble some of you have with this may be a lack of understanding/experience with derivatives in general. I can get almost 10% per month with covered calls, and my counter-party exchange risk is reduced by using margin. Yes its slightly risky, yes you might miss out on some capital gains, but in the long term it will do pretty fucking well. I’ve done covered calls among other options strategies for years in the legacy markets and I can tell you right now these premiums are amazing in comparision.

Thank you? your kidding right? If I had listened to you my stack would have been reduced substantially with your constant insistence of selling BTC on the way up. Now that's a stupid strategy. I can assure you my stack will be much larger at 200k then it is now. The only people to thank around here are the ones that tell you to never sell any of your BTC, unless there is an emergency.

I can assure you that if Bitcoin goes to $500k this year, your stack will be smaller than it is today.  And you will be left trying to buy back $500k Bitcoins with $200k (or $203.5k if you count the premium).

Yes you can win 9/10 but when you lose, you lose big.

Writing insurance against the Bitcoin price going up in the biggest bull market the world has ever seen is a shitty idea. 

[somac.]

I can assure you that if Bitcoin goes to $500k this year, your stack will be smaller than it is today.  And you will be left trying to buy back $500k Bitcoins with $200k (or $203.5k if you count the premium).

Yes you can win 9/10 but when you lose, you lose big.

Writing insurance against the Bitcoin price going up in the biggest bull market the world has ever seen is a shitty idea.  

Yes, 'if' that happens I might have one less BTC, however, I will still be able to generate an income all the way up and down from it. But, if I don't generate an income in the fashion I am, I will definitely have less BTC then I do now, because I will have to sell more than one to 'lock in profits' and it is unlikely that I am lucky enough to sell at the exact top.

So, basically it is I might have 1 less BTC + plus an income the whole time (including in a down market), vs, I will definitely have one less BTC (most likely more because I won't time the top perfectly) and a stack of dirty fiat devaluing every day that I use to fund my lifestyle until it runs out.

[lightfoot]

Cool hat stuff....

Hey man, can you make me a Fred Flintstone hat? After listening to that Bloomberg bit I'm yelling YABBA DABBA DOO!!! at every ATH......

 

That is amazing! Keeps the original motif with the "holy fuck, ATH" bit as well. Merited and will wear with pride along with my original one.

[DaRude]

These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k   Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

Fuck third-party custody, if you are considering or enticed by anything that involves that.

There are some concepts in bitcoin.. the real deal bitcoin, that incentives are built in, so bitcoin is already designed to increase in value.. .what the fuck more do you need, you greedy fucks (#nohomo) who may well be seriously considering placing your coins with some stupid-ass service trying to claim legitimacy and enticing you with supposed "passive income" .. blah blah blah..

Did I say, "fuck that?"  Don't be fucking trying to short-cut your BTC accumulation goals by thinking that you can "make money" using convoluted (surprise terms) contracts when if you accumulate adequately, then you will have way more options just living off the likely ongoing BTC price appreciation that has no real signs of stopping, even though it it is likely to continue to have up and down cycles along the way.. and you can take advantage of that in your long term planning and your refusal to take stupid-ass shortcuts that may well end up screwing you out of your coins by hook or by crook or just by bad luck (such as great price moves that liquidate you out of your supposed collateral that you were not able to adequately cover because you were to fucking busy gambling out of greed).

You will thank me later, even if you might not be able to measure what you are thanking me for, exactly...  

The thing you fail to grasp is that by selling covered call options to fund my lifestyle and purchases I will not be reducing my stack, In fact it will even help me accumulate more then I could before. What's more, I don't have to risk keeping my BTC on the exchange to still have it fully cover my calls. I can use margin so that those coins are kept in my own wallet (not the exchange). A little diversification is not a bad thing, especially when you don't have to sell BTC from your stack to do it.

I think the trouble some of you have with this may be a lack of understanding/experience with derivatives in general. I can get almost 10% per month with covered calls, and my counter-party exchange risk is reduced by using margin. Yes its slightly risky, yes you might miss out on some capital gains, but in the long term it will do pretty fucking well. I’ve done covered calls among other options strategies for years in the legacy markets and I can tell you right now these premiums are amazing in comparision.

Thank you? your kidding right? If I had listened to you my stack would have been reduced substantially with your constant insistence of selling BTC on the way up. Now that's a stupid strategy. I can assure you my stack will be much larger at 200k then it is now. The only people to thank around here are the ones that tell you to never sell any of your BTC, unless there is an emergency.

Let me help you, and others that might consider listening to you, out. First let me introduce Exhibit A - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mt._Gox https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BTC-e etc etc etc... and read up on exit scams. Oh you want to hedge your counter party risk by running on a margin? That's cute, let me introduce Exhibit B https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash oh you claim to make 120%/yr?   this brings me to Exhibit C https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0 & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitconnect

Looking at Deribit, in order to get 10% premium for March 26 calls you need to sell at $60k strike, meaning that if in 1 month BTC goes up by anything over 7% you'll loose some of your BTC (or as you claim "miss out on some capital gains"). Now you just have to do it consistently every month, and hope Deribit doesn't go the way of Gox.

Currently the golden standard seems to be BlockFi that pays just 3%/yr (above BTC2.5) https://blockfi.com/rates/ if you believe you can get considerably more (like 117% more) without taking on additional risk, i got a bridge to sell you

[JimboToronto]

I think laser eyes
Just like Dogecoin is just a
Cheesy Twittard meme.