Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Fuck my long was cancelled before execution because of insufficient margin (too little BTC in the marginpool) on Kraken. It was only 1.6 BTC so they must be really low on BTC's.

 I'm honestly sorry for your cancelled long but this is  r e a l l y  g o o d  n e w s!

As xhomerx10 said, good news indeed. The ask book is too thin on Kraken. I suspect the situation is similar everywhere. That's why I doubted we could slice through 50k like butter right now: someone wants to sweep out the leveraged longs first (nudge nudge, hint hint @Torque and the others).

So I'd say: expect a brutal down wick - possibly even into the low 40k's - before 50k gets crossed at speed. The psychological barrier is done with already.

[1714150825]

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[Sayeds56]

Fuck my long was cancelled before execution because of insufficient margin (too little BTC in the marginpool) on Kraken. It was only 1.6 BTC so they must be really low on BTC's.

 I'm honestly sorry for your cancelled long but this is  r e a l l y  g o o d  n e w s!

As xhomerx10 said, good news indeed. The ask book is too thin on Kraken. I suspect the situation is similar everywhere. That's why I doubted we could slice through 50k like butter right now: someone wants to sweep out the leveraged longs first (nudge nudge, hint hint @Torque and the others).

So I'd say: expect a brutal down wick - possibly even into the low 40k's - before 50k gets crossed at speed. The psychological barrier is done with already.

Bulls still maintain control.



https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/ideas/

[serveria.com]

I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. We did not hit the top and my order went through. Now the price can climb or fall as much as it wants and I'll be fine either way knowing that I never have to sell again. By the next 4 year cycle there will be no fiat to sell into.

I won't be selling, I'll be buying things with bitcoins.

I cut up my credit cards years ago. I have a shitload of money on the exchange and in bitcoins but I can hardly spend any of it as I have to trade BTC with friends for a few hundred dollars here and there. I dropped all of my banks in Panama because they're assholes.

I'll let the world catch up to my lifestyle of not using banks or credit cards.

Thank God for purse.io. I was very worried when they announced a shut down last year.

That does not bode well.  

[bitebits]

... Random rant and insults...

j

So fuck off and don't read my post. Who you think you are, that you can "order" here someone to leave the board. Someone describe to me the situation without any insult. But  Big Jay Jay have to begin a rant 10h after I posted my stuff and someone gave a good explanation to it. Without any insult. What is wrong with you, I have to ask. Did you have some anger issues? Seek help and try not to insult people here. Btw maybe you said something important, but I stop reading after the first insult. So your rant went into nothing. Or did you wanted to address other people's with that? Maybe you get some credit for insulting others, don't know, but your Bla Bla didn't reach me, because you have no control over you emotions. I

Don't poke it, we have all been there 

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland. Gotta finish my coffee and go shovel the global warming off the front sidewalk.

Finally broke through $50k with a new ATH ($50603 Stamp) and the obligatory correction... currently $48660USD/$61700CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

The battle for $50k might take some time.

Go Bitcoin go.
_____

As far as the new poll goes:

I've been "profit-taking" for years. I spent more than I put in years ago, buying 3 properties in Mexico, doing extensive repairs and renovations and buying miscellaneous musical instruments. In fact, the day I first broke $1m, I bought a new Gallien-Kruger bass amp.

Now I'm in the process of buying a lake. Toward the deposit, I just sold one whole coin (OTC of course) for $61.5kCAD... no fees, its a seller's market.

Every month I spend a little "profit" to pay expenses.

I'm surprised how few say they haven't taken any profits. What's the point of being rich if you don't enjoy it??

[cygan]

surprised a bit that no one here has posted this video yet

https://twitter.com/i/status/1361485382861414405

 

[OutOfMemory]

...

Those who try to scare us with going to 0 talk either don't understand how exchanges work, or are hoping to make others sell, so they buy cheaper. I am not scared of any low price and that I will be at a loss temporarily (happened many times already). On the contrary, I am happy with the fact that I can buy more Bitcoins with my monthly income. The question is not how low we may go, but how high we will go! For the ignorants just two numbers - 200 price at the end of 2014 (does it matter now?!?) and stable 6K at the end of 2017 (excluding the peak 10-20K). So we are on this schedule: 4k at the end of 2018 and stable 30-40K  at the end of 2021 (with possible peak above 100K). But let's say we have more crooks like Wu, Ver and Wright to hammer the price, and SEC is still refusing to allow ETF. Then what about in 7-8 years. With almost all 21mil Bitcoins mined, and several millions lost each year, and millions of new buyers... The explosion can't be delayed much longer for sure. So, no need of FUD or nervous trading, just hodl and you won't be dissapointed by the result!

While reading, i recognized

Then what about in 7-8 years. With almost all 21mil Bitcoins mined

In reality, last BTC mined should be around 2140 by current prognosis, so 7-8 years won't work.
Difficulty problems?  

Also, several millions of bitcoin lost each year...
How?  

We'll be "almost" way before 2140. Someone even predicted before 2078 due to constantly being faster than 10 minutes mined per block (halvings are about 3 years 10 months instead of a full 4 years).

However, even assuming 10 minute blocks, we'd have "almost" all bitcoins mined by about 2040, with 20.95m BTC or more than 99% already.

Thanks for the info. My sources may be a bit outdated, it seems...  

EDIT:

As for the poll, i "already have taken profits". Yesterday, to be precise. Just a little, for funding the extension of my house. There will be subsequent takings in the near future, and as it seems about half of what i bought before winter will remain in the hodlstack.

[Hueristic]

Fuck my long was cancelled before execution because of insufficient margin (too little BTC in the marginpool) on Kraken. It was only 1.6 BTC so they must be really low on BTC's.

Nice to see they are not stupid as to try to run a fractional reserve.

[Elwar]

I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. We did not hit the top and my order went through. Now the price can climb or fall as much as it wants and I'll be fine either way knowing that I never have to sell again. By the next 4 year cycle there will be no fiat to sell into.

I won't be selling, I'll be buying things with bitcoins.

I cut up my credit cards years ago. I have a shitload of money on the exchange and in bitcoins but I can hardly spend any of it as I have to trade BTC with friends for a few hundred dollars here and there. I dropped all of my banks in Panama because they're assholes.

I'll let the world catch up to my lifestyle of not using banks or credit cards.

Thank God for purse.io. I was very worried when they announced a shut down last year.

That does not bode well.  

Ya, nervous about moving money to my bank account.

Risk an exchange going down or risk the bank freezing my account for sending money from a bitcoin exchange...and then telling me to come to the closest branch to sort it out.

[macson]

surprised a bit that no one here has posted this video yet

https://twitter.com/i/status/1361485382861414405

 

sorry but me first, you late

And awayyyy we go.

https://twitter.com/WSBChairman/status/1361485382861414405

Don't you know....pump it up

[JayJuanGee]

Now that the 50k cherry has been broken we can expect it to peep above again, then again, then we will all be bitching about how it just won't break the mark to 60k.

Personally, I am thinking that $60k should be a bit easier than $50k, but does not necessarily mean that we will break past it.  I do believe that once we actually meaningfully break above $50k and perhaps stay there a bit longer than 10 minutes, then getting into the $58 to $62.5k price arena should not take very long... but gosh... even though I consider getting into the $58 to $62.5k price arena decently rapidly as a fairly likely scenario, sure there are a lot of other minority scenarios that could end up playing out to prove such a more likely scenario to be wrong.   

[Torque]

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1361717952102469634

"A permanent move down to zero is inevitable..."

[AlcoHoDL]

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1361717952102469634

Is he softening up or what?

Not that I care...

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1361717952102469634

Is he softening up or what?

Not that I care...

He's been soft for years.  He's cracking now.

But him calling for 100k is bearish.   At least he's saying zero after... so he can still be fully humiliated when it is 250k.

[Arriemoller]

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1361717952102469634

"A permanent move down to zero is inevitable..."

Well, he is right, nothing lasts forever, it will go to zero somewhere in a distant future.

[Dabs]

Ya, nervous about moving money to my bank account.

Risk an exchange going down or risk the bank freezing my account for sending money from a bitcoin exchange...and then telling me to come to the closest branch to sort it out.

Does the exchange have "stablecoins" ? USDC, USDT, DAI ? You could convert the money into those, and effectively withdraw from the exchange to your own wallet. Most will run on top of ETH so you'd need a little bit of that too.

Your bank account does not give you any interest. Those stablecoins, either you keep it in your own wallet, or experiment with the new defi banks (Nexo, Celsius, BlockFi, Gemini Earn) so you get 4% to 8% or something.

[Torque]

[JayJuanGee]

What a disgusting poll !! And the results almost made me puke...

So do you really think 2.5x from last cycle is current top??  with all the money printing frenzy ?? c'mon!!

The poll is worded carefully. It asks "When do you plan to START...?"

The keyword is START. Even if someone has a higher target in mind, locating the top is not easy - actually nearly impossible, it could be argued.

Whoops!!  For some reason, I misread the poll too, so I ended up answering "never" rather than "I already have." 

So a careful BCA* strategy could be an effective way to extract a preset amount of fiat, hedging against a premature end of the bull cycle. Not that I deem it likely as it is now, or that I need that much fiat in this predicament. Personally, I'm not starting anytime soon, but we all have different circumstances, so it will be interesting to see the poll's results.

*Bitcoin Cost Average

Even if BTC prices go shooting up 5x in less than 6 months, which they did, if you are still in a BTC accumulation phase, then I don't see how you quickly transition over to a BTC cashing out stage... that just seems like gambling, unless you are just cashing out in fairly small and incremental ways, which would signify that you may have moved from a more BTC accumulation emphasizing phase to a more BTC maintenance emphasizing phase.

Surely, liquidation is the phase that comes after maintenance, so I am not sure if the poll is really getting at whether we might be entering into a BTC liquidation phase, because these days, in my thinking, a BTC liquidation is more of a timeline thing rather than a BTC price movement thing, but I could see how very great BTC price movements might inspire some movement into a BTC liquidation stage rather than just a more aggressive maintenance stage that allows for selling more BTC base on price movements. 

The more I type, the more I begin to feel that I might not be making much sense, so yeah, maybe a punchline continues to be that each of us are going to have differing ways of thinking about the matter of how much fiat to cash out and what would be the purposes and maybe even the framework for such cashenings out.  Sure some folks have the purposes of buying back BTC cheaper, and for me the buying back cheaper was an incidental outcome of my practices and not a primary aim of mine.. so I never really considered myself to be cash out for that purpose, specifically and purposefully.

Note, I have considered myself to be in a kind of maintenance emphasizing phase of my bitcoin journey since about early 2015 (which would mean that I was in a bitcoin accumulation emphasizing phase through most of 2014), but there was still quite a bit of efforts of BTC accumulation in my practices between early 2015 and early 2017 and largely using DCA techniques, which thereafter I would categorize myself as having had transitioned into a more BTC maintenance stage and emphasizing the accumulation apart from incidental BTC accumulation that came from a kind of maintenance effort. 

Don't get me wrong because I am reframing and reemphasizing some of these points now, so it seems to me that I had not realized exactly which stages I had been in while I was in them - especially in 2014 and 2015, even though I did realize the purpose of what I was trying to do.    So anyhow, I began to employ selling of BTC starting at about $250 from about October 2015, and so that ongoing BTC selling has persisted until today.. which seems to be the answer to the question of when did you start to take profits - no regrets, and a way to attempt to balance matters somewhat based on my having had considered myself to have had over-accumulated BTC especially in the period from late 2014 to September 2015.

This whole rendition of my BTC selling strategy since 2015 seems to be answering my own question in regards to why I have never felt any need to prepare for BTC going to zero beyond my then preparations - because I had never considered myself to be investing more than I was willing to lose - even though with the ongoing BTC price rises, there seems like there could be some justification to taking even more BTC off the table (referring to completely removing the amount of the initial investment capital with no intention to use it to buy back BTC or to keep it in reserves in any kind of way in terms of considering it for the buying back of BTC) because there would hardly be any significant or meaningful impact to the overall value of the BTC to pull that initial investment capital out of BTC, especially at today's prices.. but then another question would be "where to put it?" which I personally need to consider if I can think of something.  Could create a trust... just a random thought.

[SATWAT]

I never thought in my life that ever I will be rich but today now I am sure I will because this bitcoin is doing amazing for me. I bought small amount few months back today its showing very good profit so now feeling my target $200K is good so just because of this now I lock my wallet for this figure when it's going to touch than I am going to sell this otherwise I have to wait.

[friends1980]

No matter what level I'd be in, that citadel looks like my worst nightmare.

Avoiding to end up in such horrendous monstrosity is the exact reason why I'm in crypto in the first place.

I think anyone who invests even 1000 USD is going to have a nice time. Remember, this is real money. And will be seen that way sooner or later by the world.

It completely depends on your expectations. Mine are freedom and peace of mind. Not sure how much USD or BTC those two things cost.