Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[UnDerDoG81]

Yellen and Musk taking a shit on bitcoin together, right around options expiry

USA is so thoroughly corrupted, morally, ethically and financially, that the putrid pile of chaos that will be left behind after it implodes on itself will burn for decades

What did Musk say? His tweets are one day old.

[aesma]

Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin

This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.

The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.

*Above prices are taken from Deribit.

How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5.

I posted a link earlier, here it is again.
https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/

The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras.

Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  

I don't believe CBOE offers BTC futures anymore. And i don't see Sept futures on CME. They're not trading now but i believe June futures were trading at around 7% premium. What you're forgetting is that CME is cash settled so they won't take your BTC as collateral for margin. Thus you'd actually need to lock up 150%, 100% to hedge with real BTC and then 50% to post for margin. At 150% that would bring actual premium down from 7% to 4,7%
As far as risks, you're forgetting that if BTC goes up before your settlement date you're gonna get margin called and will need to come up with more cash, or get automatically closed on a spike.

Also transfer times might be an issue, you'd need to sell your BTC and transfer funds to yourself and then to your broker at settlement.

Sure there are some premiums to be had if you want to tolerate the risk, just don't try to claim "140% returns with 0 risk"

I thought this seemed too easy. If the future was settled in BTC and collateral was in BTC that would be good, free money with no risk, but if everything is in fiat, that's another story entirely. And when you sell BTC to settle the future there are capital gains.

[AlcoHoDL]

Good morning all.

Bloodbath. Shitcoins too.

Looks like $60k must be postponed for a few more days...

Lasers on.

[El duderino_]

Good morning all.

Bloodbath. Shitcoins too.

Looks like $60k must be postponed for a few more days...

Lasers on.

Few days seems reasonable

[GreekCoiner]

Well, he definitely deserved this answer!
http://prntscr.com/104prrp

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364128031434887170

[Paashaas]

World premiere of the new Mercedes C class.

It's basically a smaller S class but more sporty and it's bigger than the previous C model.

Already contacted my local dealer, he said there will be a special introduction model.

I'm on the potential buyer's list, it will be either the E coupe ore this new C model.

https://media.mercedes-benz.com/c-class

[Betwrong]

I like this one at the moment

[d_eddie]

Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin

This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.

The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.

*Above prices are taken from Deribit.

How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5.

I posted a link earlier, here it is again.
https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/

The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras.

Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  

I don't believe CBOE offers BTC futures anymore. And i don't see Sept futures on CME. They're not trading now but i believe June futures were trading at around 7% premium. What you're forgetting is that CME is cash settled so they won't take your BTC as collateral for margin. Thus you'd actually need to lock up 150%, 100% to hedge with real BTC and then 50% to post for margin. At 150% that would bring actual premium down from 7% to 4,7%
As far as risks, you're forgetting that if BTC goes up before your settlement date you're gonna get margin called and will need to come up with more cash, or get automatically closed on a spike.

Also transfer times might be an issue, you'd need to sell your BTC and transfer funds to yourself and then to your broker at settlement.

Sure there are some premiums to be had if you want to tolerate the risk, just don't try to claim "140% returns with 0 risk"

I didn't know about CBOE discontinuing BTC futures, or about CME futures being cash settled.

Transfer timing, 3rd party risk and other factors do exist. No trade is a free lunch: even arbitrages can go awry. However, the so-called inverse futures have a mathematical structure such that short positions with leverage < 1 can never get liquidated. Just sayin'.

EDIT in ELI5 form for OP - I have to add, though, that this arbitrage works either way - number go up or number go down - only because the profits are measured in fiat. When measured in bitcoin, there are profits only if number go down. So for a real hodler it's not really an arbitrage, but rather either (a) a sale (at over market price, though!), or (b) a btc gain. What it turns out to be depends if number go up/down.

In other words: if number go up, you end up with a higher dollar value, but your btc value has gone down (you still give up less btc than if you had sold, because the resulting effective price is over market). If number go down, you end up with a higher dollar value and a higher btc amount too: your btc quantity goes up, since number went down and the result must make up for that, PLUS the arbitrage profit.

This could be one of the reasons why short interest in futures is always so high, and futures expiry dates are so often bloody for the hodlers - just like now.

[vapourminer]

if im paying the fee to get into a block how is that asking others to support me? im paying my way and miners set that fee, not me. i pay to play.

If miners set the fee, we wouldn't be having this discussion. If miners "set" a $200 fee and 10,000 people were willing to pay that fee, they would not all get into the block. Thus that fee could not have been said to be set at all. It is only the artificial scarcity of the artificially limited block space that forces fees high for those that want to participate.

oh please.

so lets say miners are the gate keepers. if your fee meets their criteria you are in. if not, increase fee to try again or go home.

 

[BitcoinBunny]

Very much confirms alts, smart contracts and whatever other BS ain't worth shit without BTC leading the way.

[AlcoHoDL]

...and fewer know the timing of those steps.

Conclusion: HoDL.

[vapourminer]

9. I will not include a self-destruct mechanism unless absolutely necessary. If it is necessary, it will not be a large red button labeled “Danger: Do Not Push”. The big red button marked “Do Not Push” will instead trigger a spray of bullets on anyone stupid enough to disregard it. Similarly, the ON/OFF switch will not clearly be labeled as such.

best self destruct button ever was in Forbidden Planet. the button to destroy the entire planet was in what was basically called a school classroom for children.

[LoyceV]

Yellen and Musk taking a shit on bitcoin together, right around options expiry

I had no idea who Yellen is. Turns out it's an old woman who used to work for the Fed and is now the United States Secretary of the Treasury.


I know one thing: if a granny at the Department of the Treasury worries about Bitcoin, that's not because she's so concerned with small guys losing their savings. They fear for their own interests.
Bitcoin doesn't care. But the fact that the Department of the Treasury cares is very, very bullish.

[philipma1957]

Just purchased some at 45k

buy the dip

[Parazyd]

Very much confirms alts, smart contracts and whatever other BS ain't worth shit without BTC leading the way.

Obviously. It has been like this forever.

[Dabs]

Anyone use the A400 Kingston SSDs? They seem to be a good value, maybe they suck as SSDs, but they're still better than spinning platters. Saw a review where if you actually fill it up halfway it starts turning bad or slow or something.

[Sayeds56]

Anyone use the A400 Kingston SSDs? They seem to be a good value, maybe they suck as SSDs, but they're still better than spinning platters. Saw a review where if you actually fill it up halfway it starts turning bad or slow or something.

[OutOfMemory]

BTC destruction derby, while i was on the road  

However, as a 2018 veteran, i smelled the stink of red candles in the morning, sold half my "trading reserve" at around $49k - $50k (IIRD), which will be used for living anyway and already paid off for some weeks now. Bought back at a little under $46k.
The correction was clearly needed. I even got a warning shot via twitter and the espresso blog, but i fell asleep yesterday before i was able to sell.

#hodlings unaffected

[soullyG]

Tether FUD go bye-bye? They have reached a settlement with paltry $18.5m fine, and NY citizens won't be able to use Bitfinex or Tether too

Tether has settled their legal dispute with the New York Attorney General's office for $18.5 million.

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1364195235618766850

https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2021/attorney-general-james-ends-virtual-currency-trading-platform-bitfinexs-illegal

[vapourminer]

BTC destruction derby, while i was on the road  

However, as a 2018 veteran, i smelled the stink of red candles in the morning, sold half my "trading reserve" at around $49k - $50k (IIRD), which will be used for living anyway and already paid off for some weeks now. Bought back at a little under $46k.

i had several buys pop off lowest was ~45.5k

helps that i actually paid (a very small amount of) attention to price the last couple weeks and tweaked ladders a bit every couple days instead of every few weeks.