Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wilhelm]

That's why I'm holding to 2025 

Expecting anything disastrous to happen in 2026?

The cycles would suggest 2025 to be better than 2026 - but of course, there are no real guarantees exactly how cycles might fall... and therefore, none of us should be getting too wedded to any exact pattern - even though it still may be reasonable to use as a kind of guide -until and unless something better comes along.

  For example, there could be an outrageous peak and then dump in 2025 that would then cause 2026 to play out better than 2025.. Can think about the new pattern as a kind of 2013 double top scenario that drags out into 2026, and surely we are not even limited to previous patterns that still kinds of stick to the overall grander background pattern with more noise in the middle, so, even though the previous BTC price performance cycles have had a certain kind of consistency and patterns to them, there could surely be cases in which the pattern ends up getting messed up on a shorter timeline of 6-18 months, either purposefully or just by the way other related factors (macro or otherwise) play out, but then it may or may not still end up playing out very similarly, once we end up zooming out and looking at the pattern in a broader way (and perhaps after the fact?).

1BTC purchasing power!

There is maybe a bear market in between, so we go back to lambo from the house

Don't you wish, you market-timer wannabe.   

You get my drift...

Next halving is in May 2024.
ATH is about 1 year after that. Eta may 2025.
Then a crash to 1/6th of it's price in 2026.
Build up to halving in 2028 and ATH in 2029.

So good vintages are
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029

Years in between are shit years...

[vapourminer]

People always said that buying is better than mining (and they have been right almost all of the time), but where's the fun in just buying?

When you're an ex-miner, recognize how unprofitable and a pain in the balls it is to run a mining operation, end up doing the math on a miner + electricity + Time to ROI... fuck the fun.

Time is money. Cheaper to buy what you would spend on a miner now, than what it would likely generate 18 months from now, IMO.

Unless you have cheap or free electricity, I don't see the benefit of mining right now vs just buying corn outright.

true now, but back in 2011 i sure wasnt going to hand over my ID and such to sketch af exchanges to buy corn. so i mined coins directly as it was safer from an identity theft point of view. no giving out info, just mine direct to my wallet.

so i did mine at a loss for a while (a year maybe? that looooong period that it went from $35 to ~$2 USD in 2011-2012 or so) but not much of a loss as opposed to straight up buying, perhaps a 20% premium?  but then again i was used to doing folding@home and SETI, both which cost money (electric cost plus buying dedicated hardware that folded) and provided absolutely no return at all aside from the warm fuzzies from supporting science and medicine.

and that mining at a loss in the 2011-2012 timeframe sure paid off bigly now of course. VERY bigly.

today is of course different.

[Richy_T]

Surely WO members have discretion in regards to how to carry out these kinds of matters in terms of reducing clutter, trying to be somewhat user-friendly, and/or deleting posts. .. and sometimes even if all content is retained in a later post, it could become confusing to delete earlier posts... .. and sometimes with the passage of time, it may well be better to create a brand new post with the same subject matter as an earlier post rather than placing such content in an older post.... so discretion is likely to vary in regard to the topic, for sure....**

Indeed, do as you wish. However, if you are posting, I have to assume you are hoping that people will see what you write and, given the amount *you* write, I would imagine that goes doubly for you. So the choice is between just using the forum naturally (as I have been mildly rebuked for doing), amalgamating posts and having people miss stuff or amalgamating posts and having people maybe see a repeat (something that would be a minor issue as most amalagamated posts are pretty short). Certainly for longer, more informative posts, you probably wouldn't want to amalgamate them in the first place. So yes, judgement is in order but personally, I guess I'd prefer my posts not be missed on average and would happily extend the same courtesy to others.

[Biodom]

Did I say that GBTC turned up to be a complete crap lately, their price lagging the NAV by 10% in btc equivalent.
Some (cough-ARK-cough) are probably selling it to support their other (core) positions among investors cashing out of the fund(s).

[OROBTC]

[snipped]


You get my drift...

Next halving is in May 2024.
ATH is about 1 year after that. Eta may 2025.
Then a crash to 1/6th of it's price in 2026.
Build up to halving in 2028 and ATH in 2029.

So good vintages are
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029

Years in between are shit years...

Very instructive, good insights, thanks!

So BTFD in 2022 - 2024 (for those of us who are kinda slow...)  I sold in 2017 and 2021 (so far).  I'll buy later. 

"It's all good"

[Wekkel]

Read the 23-page Aker shareholder letter. Pretty good stuff.

Risk is shifting from holding Bitcoin to no-coining. This is getting better everyday  

https://www.seetee.io/static/shareholder_letter-6ae7e85717c28831bf1c0eca1d632722.pdf

[rdbase]

Read the 23-page Aker shareholder letter. Pretty good stuff.

Risk is shifting from holding Bitcoin to no-coining. This is getting better everyday  

https://www.seetee.io/static/shareholder_letter-6ae7e85717c28831bf1c0eca1d632722.pdf

The Elon experiment into bitcoin seemed to fail.
But BTC still holding strong above $50k so who needs this space, car and train(tunnel from the boring company) mogul anyways.

Tesla bought that bitcoin and investors of the TSLA stock were getting restless and the stock lost 30%.
No wonder he was backing dogecoin.
Former CEO knows.
He planned his GME along time ago and had his brother sell all his stock in tesla a while ago.
So to buy back on the cheap? Those stoink guys are playing real hard now.
Musk knows how to play his own company to a tee by now.

[Wekkel]

You think the Bitcoin purchase caused a 30% slide in Tesla?

[Sayeds56]

A friend just bought this one..... cool isn’t it

If:
cool = another level of retard

Then:

I agree   - cool

BAT PATTERN OF BTC

[marcus_of_augustus]

You think the Bitcoin purchase caused a 30% slide in Tesla?

... or his idiotic shilling of the doge shittiest of shitcoins?

[marcus_of_augustus]

I heard you like rockets so I made this gif



this is a video capture from the first successful landing of the new spacex starship rocket. I don't know how they made it, it looks unreal, computer animated. Most likely a drone captured that.

it's from a camera on the ground just to one side of the landing pad looking almost directly up.

The ignition of three engines and shutting down of two is intentional. Two previous attempts suffered engine failures to reignite and subsequent crashes, so new technique is to ignite all three for redundancy and shutoff what is not needed. It only needs full thrust of one engine to hover. However since there are three engines equidistant from the central axis, when only one is running the craft needs to be tilted to maintain upright balance and given the massive size and inertia tilting to the functioning engine direction takes precious time to achieve when coming in hot like that.

In this attempt, balance or full thrust wasn't achieved in time and the rocket hit the ground with its tail at 20-30mph with a slight bounce. Yes it landed kind of upright but internal damage sustained was catastrophic, then boom a few minutes later.

[cAPSLOCK]

Conclusion:
- Satoshi Nakamoto is indeed the inventor of the concept "blockchain".
- Originally it was "block chain" later became one word as a noun we know today "blockchain".
- Satoshi Nakamoto invented the concept "block chain" in 31 October 2008
- Birth of the word "blockchain" happened on this forum bitcointalk around 2010

Hmm.  I think Chaum, Stornetta, Beyer and Haber would take issue with this.  Rightly so.

It would be accurate that Satoshi was the first to make a meaningful implementation of a blockchain, by combining that concept with several others he also did not invent.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@WClementeIII
#Bitcoin  Exchange Inflows just reached a 120-Day Low.

So Bullish.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1369013859596533763?s=21






Supply shortage coming.....




@WClementeIII
#Bitcoin  Miner Outflows just reached a 30-Day Low.

Miners have stopped selling.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1369011553744392194?s=21

[marcus_of_augustus]

As much as I admire and respect the great technical achievements of the SpaceX Starship I think there is becoming apparent a major flaw that precludes it from being the human-carrying vessel many of us had hoped for. The amazing all stainless steel construction philosophy is turning out to be a huge success economically and strategically for rapid development. Multiple cheap prototype rockets can be manufactured in a factory line manner using initially ex-oilfield welders in the texas dusty environments outdoors, and then robotic welding macines.
 However, when you listen to these beasts fire up there is an otherworldly ringing-rumbling screeching sound that only metal can make, and this is from 8-10 km away. Imagine what that sound would be like if you were inside the beast. Think of being an ant inside Carribean steel drum while pounded with cat 5 hurricane driven hailstorm and you might get some idea. Because it a huge stainless steel cylinder I suspect that no amount of noise-proofing or ear-protection can buffer occupants from sufferring the ill effects of this cacophony. It will have many harmonics and likely some at frequencies that shake your internal organs enough to induce vomiting or even pain directly. I hope it isn't the case but from the outside it looks like a major risk to the ambitions of the project to me.

[600watt]

Read the 23-page Aker shareholder letter. Pretty good stuff.

Risk is shifting from holding Bitcoin to no-coining. This is getting better everyday  

https://www.seetee.io/static/shareholder_letter-6ae7e85717c28831bf1c0eca1d632722.pdf

tectonic shift spot-o-meter going havoc. another one of those billionaires sounding as bullish and with as much conviction as our average WO OG.

this dude is the billionaire boss of a 180 year industrial dynasty since 1996. contemplates about several mio USD per coin.

First, we will use bit­coin as our trea­sury as­set and join the com­mu­ni­ty.In Bit­coin speak, we will be hodlers. We will be dif­fer­ent, but ad­di­tive. Per­haps not as re­bel­lious as the cypher­punks who in­vent­ed Bit­coin.

Third, we will build and in­vest in projects and com­pa­nies in Bit­coin’secosys­tem.* This is where our true pas­sion is! Our home game is in­dus­trial ap­plications. But we also be­lieve nice­ly de­signed mod­ern user in­terfaces will en­able new ap­plications wher­ev­er trans­ac­tions hap­pen. I ampar­tic­u­lar­ly in­ter­est­ed in mi­cro­pay­ments and how these may en­able us to
avoid user­names, pass­words, and our per­son­al data be­ing mon­e­tised with, and of­ten with­out, our knowl­edge or con­sent.

* it has been told this would happen since the dawn of blockchainism. i am stunned to see it happen finally. the blockchain-not-bitcoin narrative is officially proclaimed dead.

[Searing]

my brother wanted to sell me his 'used' tesla a 1.5 years ago? 2 years...I just remember it was 7.5 BTC...I probably would have done this IF he would have

kept the BTC...I'd be sad ..but at least the brother would have some BTC. But 'missed that bullet' sheesh...7.5 BTC for such...I would be 'sad' now...very, very

sad.... so HODL.

Was paying my kids .1btc to rake the yard years ago. They are happy now.

I remember signature campaigns that paid 0.1 BTC per week....remember PayCoin? Before GAW went completely rotten?

I THINK I got 0.33 BTC for running their chain for a week or so ..so they could setup POS with my 2013 KNC Jupiter Miner I had to 'dust off' after a couple years..the

last hurrah...everyone mined for PayCoin...I mined it on some exchange for BTC direct..


Wow....hell I used to send you like 1.5 BTC to fix various lots of KNC equipment ....hope you kept it

Brad

 lol GAW "went"
That's the one scam that never suckered me in with their pretty pictures of nonexistent mining devices.

well for 'awhile' you could get the GAW devices...but then they went full Paycoin scam...I mean "scam' wise they had big brass ones...

he could have gotten 20 years..he got 3 years...supposedly by the article below he will be released this year

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ceo-behind-gaw-miners-paycoin-ponzi-scheme-sentenced-to-21-months-in-prison

wanna bet that he 'does not' have some BTC stashed someplace...unlikely he does not, IMHO!

Brad

[serveria.com]

A friend just bought this one..... cool isn’t it

If:
cool = another level of retard

Then:

I agree   - cool

BAT PATTERN OF BTC

Oh my! Where in the world they find these shitty TAs? What is that they'll find in a BTC graph next? A dick pointing down as a bearish sign?   

[Parazyd]

Damn it feels good to come back after missing a day and seeing we're still above 50k.

50k+ is the new normal. Yes.

[Searing]

Good morning WOvians ... The next dump after a tremendous sunday. So cheap coins for you. I have sadly no fiat ...

Whose fault is it for this resistance? All coins are cheap coins 

As a 'Wow" moment that I get in relation to 'cheap coins' comment above is the realization that EVERY FRIGGING TIME

we have the 'wonderful' All-Time-High (ATH) for Bitcoin Price, at least 'on-paper' EVERYONE HODL'ing Bitcoin at that

that 'moment in time is 'ahead' or 'even' in what they paid or on their HODL/HOARD or whatever...on their choice to get BTC!

I always think ATH's are the 'ultimate' FU to Fiat-based currency and the 'dreaded' BTC is a scam FUD narrative.

But as Philipma1957 said in a 'previous' post it would be nice if BTC just went sideways for 1/2 a year or more at around $50k

or some such. Lull the powers that be in the world of traditional finance/centralized wealth and power into 'complacency".  Another

run to say $75K and the FUD/FEAR/FOMO wars and demand for regulation would return in force. I want them to just take BTC

for granted for a while...nothing to see here folks..just chugging along minding our own business...move along.

Not how 'Bitcoin rolls' but it is a nice fantasy...as we likely (I'm always wrong) price of BTC shoots up to $75k next week or some such.

Bitcoin: Always Drama! (tm Bitcoin)

Brad




 

[lightfoot]