Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wekkel]

Breakout to the upside coming, $50,000 is the new normal. Bears failing to take us lower & keep us there. Explosive breakout coming in the next 2 weeks. Looking at range of $65,000 to $75;000.

There goes my plan to buy more at $40,xxx 

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[vapourminer]

[Multple stuff]

Just a quick note but when combining multiple posts, it is better to put the items in the new post rather than the already existing one (then delete the existing one) lest those who have already seen your original post miss it when looking for "new".

bold of you to think people dont want to miss anything jjg writes

*ducks*

[dieselmeister]

1BTC purchasing power!

There is maybe a bear market in between, so we go back to lambo from the house

[BobLawblaw]

People always said that buying is better than mining (and they have been right almost all of the time), but where's the fun in just buying?

When you're an ex-miner, recognize how unprofitable and a pain in the balls it is to run a mining operation, end up doing the math on a miner + electricity + Time to ROI... fuck the fun.

Time is money. Cheaper to buy what you would spend on a miner now, than what it would likely generate 18 months from now, IMO.

Unless you have cheap or free electricity, I don't see the benefit of mining right now vs just buying corn outright.

[Biodom]

People always said that buying is better than mining (and they have been right almost all of the time), but where's the fun in just buying?

When you're an ex-miner, recognize how unprofitable and a pain in the balls it is to run a mining operation, end up doing the math on a miner + electricity + Time to ROI... fuck the fun.

Time is money. Cheaper to buy what you would spend on a miner now, than what it would likely generate 18 months from now, IMO.

Unless you have cheap or free electricity, I don't see the benefit of mining right now vs just buying corn outright.

Er, you could be mining right now with something that you bought 2 years ago for CASH.
The equipment is paid for already, now you are just stacking sats for LESS.
That, plus often neglected fact that the cost of equipment is amortized, possibly within one year (if you opened the LLC or some other entity).
Of course, you would need to declare mined btc as income; then, after you sell, that income becomes the base cost, which is subtracted from the sale proceeds (if you ever sell), generating cap gains.

[JayJuanGee]

A friend just bought this one..... cool isn’t it

If:
cool = another level of retard

Then:

I agree   - cool

[mladen00]

That's why I'm holding to 2025 

Expecting anything disastrous to happen in 2026?

Covid26-pro sp2

[macson]

I wonder, why don't you get a badge as the "best hat-maker artist" in this forum....your art is amazing

Norwegian Oil Billionaire Joins the Bets on Bitcoin
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-08/billionaire-rokke-bets-bitcoin-will-be-on-right-side-of-history?srnd=premium-europe&sref=6uww027M

good news, one by one old-school investor turn to future investment.

1BTC purchasing power!

"1BTC purchasing power!" in Q1 2022 ^{(I believe)}

https://www.caranddriver.com/lamborghini ^{(maybe the price in each country is different)}

People always said that buying is better than mining (and they have been right almost all of the time), but where's the fun in just buying?

When you're an ex-miner, recognize how unprofitable and a pain in the balls it is to run a mining operation, end up doing the math on a miner + electricity + Time to ROI... fuck the fun.

Time is money. Cheaper to buy what you would spend on a miner now, than what it would likely generate 18 months from now, IMO.

Unless you have cheap or free electricity, I don't see the benefit of mining right now vs just buying corn outright.

I saw on YouTube there is a miner who spent money to buy mining equipment for around $7k but only made $2 - $4/day ^{(outside the cost of electricity, internet, and maintenance)}.  I'm not saying mining is bad, but if that person only bought Bitcoin and HODL, maybe he wouldn't waste time and would definitely have multiple profits when compared to his income from mining.

[lightfoot]

People always said that buying is better than mining (and they have been right almost all of the time), but where's the fun in just buying?

When you're an ex-miner, recognize how unprofitable and a pain in the balls it is to run a mining operation, end up doing the math on a miner + electricity + Time to ROI... fuck the fun.

Time is money. Cheaper to buy what you would spend on a miner now, than what it would likely generate 18 months from now, IMO.

Unless you have cheap or free electricity, I don't see the benefit of mining right now vs just buying corn outright.

Remember back in the older days it was a pain to buy coin. Even now there is a pretty big markup at the local ATMs so that sucks.

And if you were a miner that "mined at a loss" back in the day and held you probably have "made so much of a fuckton above your ROI that you're snorting coke off a hooker's ass". Sometimes it's what you think the thing is worth as opposed to what it may be worth now.

And you're helping to secure the network and keep it from being a 100% Chinese dumpster. That has value.

[JayJuanGee]

[Multple stuff]

Just a quick note but when combining multiple posts, it is better to put the items in the new post rather than the already existing one (then delete the existing one) lest those who have already seen your original post miss it when looking for "new".

Surely WO members have discretion in regards to how to carry out these kinds of matters in terms of reducing clutter, trying to be somewhat user-friendly, and/or deleting posts. .. and sometimes even if all content is retained in a later post, it could become confusing to delete earlier posts... .. and sometimes with the passage of time, it may well be better to create a brand new post with the same subject matter as an earlier post rather than placing such content in an older post.... so discretion is likely to vary in regard to the topic, for sure....**

[Multple stuff]

Just a quick note but when combining multiple posts, it is better to put the items in the new post rather than the already existing one (then delete the existing one) lest those who have already seen your original post miss it when looking for "new".

bold of you to think people dont want to miss anything jjg writes

*ducks*

That's another way of thinking about it...

I feel flattered... whether anybody wants to read my "insight" or no.

 


 

** By the way, in this post, I moved it around after posting my earlier response to Richy_T.. because there was jumbling of topics.. .. so perhaps some folks are going to end up double reading parts of this post.. and how do I feel about that, you might ask?  I feel like this:  "Fuck em."

[psycodad]

People always said that buying is better than mining (and they have been right almost all of the time), but where's the fun in just buying?

When you're an ex-miner, recognize how unprofitable and a pain in the balls it is to run a mining operation, end up doing the math on a miner + electricity + Time to ROI... fuck the fun.

Time is money. Cheaper to buy what you would spend on a miner now, than what it would likely generate 18 months from now, IMO.

Unless you have cheap or free electricity, I don't see the benefit of mining right now vs just buying corn outright.

I actually made a very quick and very rough calculation, summing up leccy and miners and comparing to having spend those amounts in that year at the average yearly BTC price. I'd probably have ~30-50% less corn now.

With a lot of fake shame and affected guilt I admit, I have only profit-switch-mined scrypt shitcoins on my own pools. I held them until they pump (only 10-20% do that, the rest is loss) and then sell it. For example I piled up short of 2M musk doggie coins in the last 3 years, most of that time they would have given me  ~20 Sats per block, this time around I could sell most of it for > 180 Sat per block. And these were free merge-mined.

Though I have to give you, that if I had spent the time I invested for my mining as a burger flipper for minimum wage and invested that wage additionally via DCA in Bitcoin, I'd definitely have the most now.

Please take note, that I do in no way say that is a recommendable investment strategy - in fact when somebody asks me about it, I say exactly this: Just buy it. But I do enjoy running my little shitty mining op a lot and by being patient I got lucky quite a few times.

Ironically, I heard you are building a ranch/farm and as somebody helping out currently on a small farm because somebody being ill, I can safely say I'd really never wanted to have one.  
I could probably advise you to better spend your dollars directly at a quality grocery and get your bio eggs from there and your fine deluxe steak from the local butcher. It is just not worth the time consuming hard work, the pain in your back and all the worries to have your own fresh bacon and eggs I tell you - but then I guess everybody defines fun differently  



EDIT: (I totally deserve a bat slap for my shitcoin talk and I will happily accept the beatings in total submissiveness)

[Wekkel]

Coins still leaving exchanges. What are they up to?

https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1368979466798694402?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

That's why I'm holding to 2025 

Expecting anything disastrous to happen in 2026?

The cycles would suggest 2025 to be better than 2026 - but of course, there are no real guarantees exactly how cycles might fall... and therefore, none of us should be getting too wedded to any exact pattern - even though it still may be reasonable to use as a kind of guide -until and unless something better comes along.

  For example, there could be an outrageous peak and then dump in 2025 that would then cause 2026 to play out better than 2025.. Can think about the new pattern as a kind of 2013 double top scenario that drags out into 2026, and surely we are not even limited to previous patterns that still kinds of stick to the overall grander background pattern with more noise in the middle, so, even though the previous BTC price performance cycles have had a certain kind of consistency and patterns to them, there could surely be cases in which the pattern ends up getting messed up on a shorter timeline of 6-18 months, either purposefully or just by the way other related factors (macro or otherwise) play out, but then it may or may not still end up playing out very similarly, once we end up zooming out and looking at the pattern in a broader way (and perhaps after the fact?).

1BTC purchasing power!

There is maybe a bear market in between, so we go back to lambo from the house

Don't you wish, you market-timer wannabe.   

[rolling]

Coins still leaving exchanges. What are they up to?

https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1368979466798694402?s=21

Hodling. Smart people don't leave coins on exchange.

[Wilhelm]

That's why I'm holding to 2025 

Expecting anything disastrous to happen in 2026?

The cycles would suggest 2025 to be better than 2026 - but of course, there are no real guarantees exactly how cycles might fall... and therefore, none of us should be getting too wedded to any exact pattern - even though it still may be reasonable to use as a kind of guide -until and unless something better comes along.

  For example, there could be an outrageous peak and then dump in 2025 that would then cause 2026 to play out better than 2025.. Can think about the new pattern as a kind of 2013 double top scenario that drags out into 2026, and surely we are not even limited to previous patterns that still kinds of stick to the overall grander background pattern with more noise in the middle, so, even though the previous BTC price performance cycles have had a certain kind of consistency and patterns to them, there could surely be cases in which the pattern ends up getting messed up on a shorter timeline of 6-18 months, either purposefully or just by the way other related factors (macro or otherwise) play out, but then it may or may not still end up playing out very similarly, once we end up zooming out and looking at the pattern in a broader way (and perhaps after the fact?).

1BTC purchasing power!

There is maybe a bear market in between, so we go back to lambo from the house

Don't you wish, you market-timer wannabe.   

You get my drift...

Next halving is in May 2024.
ATH is about 1 year after that. Eta may 2025.
Then a crash to 1/6th of it's price in 2026.
Build up to halving in 2028 and ATH in 2029.

So good vintages are
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029

Years in between are shit years...

[vapourminer]

People always said that buying is better than mining (and they have been right almost all of the time), but where's the fun in just buying?

When you're an ex-miner, recognize how unprofitable and a pain in the balls it is to run a mining operation, end up doing the math on a miner + electricity + Time to ROI... fuck the fun.

Time is money. Cheaper to buy what you would spend on a miner now, than what it would likely generate 18 months from now, IMO.

Unless you have cheap or free electricity, I don't see the benefit of mining right now vs just buying corn outright.

true now, but back in 2011 i sure wasnt going to hand over my ID and such to sketch af exchanges to buy corn. so i mined coins directly as it was safer from an identity theft point of view. no giving out info, just mine direct to my wallet.

so i did mine at a loss for a while (a year maybe? that looooong period that it went from $35 to ~$2 USD in 2011-2012 or so) but not much of a loss as opposed to straight up buying, perhaps a 20% premium?  but then again i was used to doing folding@home and SETI, both which cost money (electric cost plus buying dedicated hardware that folded) and provided absolutely no return at all aside from the warm fuzzies from supporting science and medicine.

and that mining at a loss in the 2011-2012 timeframe sure paid off bigly now of course. VERY bigly.

today is of course different.

[Richy_T]

Surely WO members have discretion in regards to how to carry out these kinds of matters in terms of reducing clutter, trying to be somewhat user-friendly, and/or deleting posts. .. and sometimes even if all content is retained in a later post, it could become confusing to delete earlier posts... .. and sometimes with the passage of time, it may well be better to create a brand new post with the same subject matter as an earlier post rather than placing such content in an older post.... so discretion is likely to vary in regard to the topic, for sure....**

Indeed, do as you wish. However, if you are posting, I have to assume you are hoping that people will see what you write and, given the amount *you* write, I would imagine that goes doubly for you. So the choice is between just using the forum naturally (as I have been mildly rebuked for doing), amalgamating posts and having people miss stuff or amalgamating posts and having people maybe see a repeat (something that would be a minor issue as most amalagamated posts are pretty short). Certainly for longer, more informative posts, you probably wouldn't want to amalgamate them in the first place. So yes, judgement is in order but personally, I guess I'd prefer my posts not be missed on average and would happily extend the same courtesy to others.

[Biodom]

Did I say that GBTC turned up to be a complete crap lately, their price lagging the NAV by 10% in btc equivalent.
Some (cough-ARK-cough) are probably selling it to support their other (core) positions among investors cashing out of the fund(s).

[OROBTC]

[snipped]


You get my drift...

Next halving is in May 2024.
ATH is about 1 year after that. Eta may 2025.
Then a crash to 1/6th of it's price in 2026.
Build up to halving in 2028 and ATH in 2029.

So good vintages are
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029

Years in between are shit years...

Very instructive, good insights, thanks!

So BTFD in 2022 - 2024 (for those of us who are kinda slow...)  I sold in 2017 and 2021 (so far).  I'll buy later. 

"It's all good"

[Wekkel]

Read the 23-page Aker shareholder letter. Pretty good stuff.

Risk is shifting from holding Bitcoin to no-coining. This is getting better everyday  

https://www.seetee.io/static/shareholder_letter-6ae7e85717c28831bf1c0eca1d632722.pdf