Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

Next bitcoin price milestone...  age*1000....

 That's gonna fall shortly for me, albeit, for most Wo Bros, that was long since broken months* ago.
....Except Jimbo.. and that will fall shortly too, no doubt, right after mine.
 (*or years ago in "crypto time"...and please don't bat-slap me jay, I couldn't come up with a better term....)

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[Elwar]

Don't mind prodhon. He's an old school troll that was on here early enough that he likely threw in 1000 bucks when the price was $1/BTC on a drunken binge or just for the lols.

After being super rich he realised that being rich is not fun if you have no friends. Craving any human contact after being away for years he fired up his wall sized computer screen with direct neural interface to connect to bitcointalk to troll once again. To make up for how lonely his castle feels when there's nobody there but you.

[Biodom]

Gurl, YOU are the one who is bearish-always selling when btc goes up and accumulating useless fiat,

That's bearish?

Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so? It seems to me that such a system only works if the underlying asset goes up. It could even be argued that mere use of this ladder implies fundamentally bullish beliefs (number go up). Otherwise, there would be no need for "suicidal buys" on the way down to zero.

Care to explain?

while I mentioned that i would not sell bitcoin (probably ever).

I think I see what you mean here. There are other, possibly more sophisticated ways to put the corn to work - for example, arbitrages or option plays - which however often imply ultimate movements that are essentially sales, or very akin to sales - but I digress. How, if even, does this imply that the more intuitive system is "less bullish" or even "bearish"?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.
Bearish in a sense that JJG personal goal seems to be fiat accumulation, so he/she is bullish on fiat, bearish on bitcoin (as a final destination).
I prefer the opposite, slowly selling my fiat in lieu of btc. Not 100% as Raoul Pal did, but close enough. Since I am still drawing fiat salary and don't spend too much, cash flow is not a problem.
Real assets (farm land, properties, timber) to me seem the only use for selling btc, but even then, such sells are probably not needed anymore as soon (maybe already) you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs. That does not include additional strategies that you mentioned (selling covered options). Any illusions about lasting fiat value should have evaporated last spring with 25% increase in money supply in one year-again Saylor is very eloquent about it.

As far as tactics, yes, he/she thinks that this is a bullish posture (to sell while asset goes up and buy when asset is going down), but it is an erroneous approach, in the final analysis.
This does not work in a vast majority of cases, believe me, I tried (not in bitcoin) and have scars to show for it.
Only an extraordinary btc mechanics allows for this approach to have some chance.

Additionally, casual pressing "I am rich as fuck"-to me this sounds somewhat cringe-worthy, maybe only if you are a Mansa Musa reincarnation, and even then, but I digress, maybe I am too old school for the TikTok/Instagram/Snapchat age. Besides, on some subreddits such claim would require mod validation. Not here, though, which does not add credibility.

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxYjhO0tRCo

Posting this here so someone might get a proper Laugh out of it

[sirazimuth]

.....

Posting this here so someone might get a proper Laugh out of it

You need lessons on how to be tastefully/timely off topic.

[cAPSLOCK]

I quite appreciated the four bumply girls. None of which holds a candle to my wife... she's amazing, in that regard..

That's how we know your wife reads the WO too.  

Actually that's how you know she DOESN'T   Not if I ever want to see it again.

[cAPSLOCK]

But they can never say that they weren’t warned to cash out into real money while they still can.

People don't like to hear it around here, but fiat currency is the safest, best currency in the history of human science. Economists and myself have proven this by pure mathematics techniques. I'm grateful I cashed out long ago and have sound money safely stored in good stock investments and secure fiat cash in a safe modern bank account earning low, but safe yields for my future. Bitcoin is a failed technology and a dangerous house of cards confirmed on its way to zero.

You are right as usual. I have seen bitcoin add quite a few zeros...  I think we should see a couple more before it's over.

[Biodom]

But they can never say that they weren’t warned to cash out into real money while they still can.

People don't like to hear it around here, but fiat currency is the safest, best currency in the history of human science. Economists and myself have proven this by pure mathematics techniques. I'm grateful I cashed out long ago and have sound money safely stored in good stock investments and secure fiat cash in a safe modern bank account earning low, but safe yields for my future. Bitcoin is a failed technology and a dangerous house of cards confirmed on its way to zero.

You are right as usual. I have seen bitcoin add quite a few zeros...  I think we should see a couple more before it's over.

I can add a couple of zeroes to the number, but then the number becomes simply unfathomable.

not just Satoshi, but relatively late converts like Winkelvoss twins become the richest on the planet, MSTR has a market cap equal to TSLA or FB; Proudhon's mound reaches to the near earth orbit, etc, etc.

[sirazimuth]

But they can never say that they weren’t warned to cash out into real money while they still can.

People don't like to hear it around here, but fiat currency is the safest, best currency in the history of human science. Economists and myself have proven this by pure mathematics techniques. I'm grateful I cashed out long ago and have sound money safely stored in good stock investments and secure fiat cash in a safe modern bank account earning low, but safe yields for my future. Bitcoin is a failed technology and a dangerous house of cards confirmed on its way to zero.

100K incoming....

[d_eddie]

-multisnips-

Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.

you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs.

Thank you. You got me thinking, especially about the loan thingy. I'd be glad to know more about that. Any pointers will be welcome.

[Biodom]

-multisnips-

Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.

you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs.

Thank you. You got me thinking, especially about the loan thingy. I'd be glad to know more about that. Any pointers will be welcome.

Fidelity:
https://www.investopedia.com/fidelity-will-accept-bitcoin-collateral-for-cash-loans-5091879
Basic rate is high, 4.5%, but i am sure this will go down.
I would be shocked if Coinbase would not do the same soon after the IPO.
Personally, i would never go above 20% LTV, maybe just 10% (in case of our typical 80% drawdown).
The advantage-NO cap gains tax. In fact, maybe deductible interest (or not, hard to say)

Borrowing Against securities (better rates right now):
https://www.schwab.com/pledged-asset-line
Libor is 0.11%, so the best rate is 1.86%.
Say, you've got, hypothetically, $10 mil of VOO.
You borrow $ 3mil. Your interest (to pay) is 3000000X0.0186=$55800 yearly
However, $10mil in VOO generates $152000 yearly in dividends. End result-you borrowed $3 mil to do whatever, it effectively cost you nothing (well, a decreased divvy).
Yes, you would have to pay the principal at some point, but you can use divvy remainder to do that plus VOO goes up roughly 10% a year, so the loan basically pays for itself (if stock market performs).
That's why rich can have a cake and eat it too, lol

More:
https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/why-wells-fargo/products-services/lending/securities-based.htm
Yes, best rates are for those with lots of assets.

Ret accounts are NOT eligible, though.

Mind you, I have done nothing of the sorts so far, but I am studying the question (after Saylor's remarks).

[shahzadafzal]

Sold a tiny piece just to say I sold some over 60k

acquired a tiny piece just to say I bought some over $61k

Am I the only one after Microstrategy? Did I disrupt the price?

0.005219 @ $61307.90

[somac.]

-multisnips-

Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.

you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs.

Thank you. You got me thinking, especially about the loan thingy. I'd be glad to know more about that. Any pointers will be welcome.

Fidelity:
https://www.investopedia.com/fidelity-will-accept-bitcoin-collateral-for-cash-loans-5091879
Basic rate is high, 4.5%, but i am sure this will go down.
I would be shocked if Coinbase would not do the same soon after the IPO.
Personally, i would never go above 20% LTV, maybe just 10% (in case of our typical 80% drawdown).
The advantage-NO cap gains tax. In fact, maybe deductible interest (or not, hard to say)

Borrowing Against securities (better rates right now):
https://www.schwab.com/pledged-asset-line
Libor is 0.11%, so the best rate is 1.86%.
Say, you've got, hypothetically, $10 mil of VOO.
You borrow $ 3mil. Your interest (to pay) is 3000000X0.0186=$55800 yearly
However, $10mil in VOO generates $152000 yearly in dividends. End result-you borrowed $3 mil to do whatever, it effectively cost you nothing (well, a decreased divvy).
Yes, you would have to pay the principal at some point, but you can use divvy remainder to do that plus VOO goes up roughly 10% a year, so the loan basically pays for itself (if stock market performs).
That's why rich can have a cake and eat it too, lol

More:
https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/why-wells-fargo/products-services/lending/securities-based.htm
Yes, best rates are for those with lots of assets.

Ret accounts are NOT eligible, though.

Mind you, I have done nothing of the sorts so far, but I am studying the question (after Saylor's remarks).

This is exactly the kind of stuff I'm currently thinking through. Selling is the last thing I want to do now (still considering offloading a couple for a home though, wife would like the security, I might cave).

Imagine this scenario for a moment, you get a loan of 4.5% on some of your BTC, you take that cash buy BTC on spot and sell some 6 monthly futures contracts on those BTC for an annualised gain of >20%.

That's 15% profit right there, to be used as cashflow, without selling any BTC.

Honestly, why bother selling any BTC (except maybe home or emergency) while we now have the ability to to do this kind of stuff.

Also, can you post the link for the Saylor vid?

[Hhampuz]

market moving so slowly and boring now, when $70k WO?

[Hueristic]

market moving so slowly and boring now, when $70k WO?

Right after 80k and just before 100k.

[Hhampuz]

market moving so slowly and boring now, when $70k WO?

Right after 80k and just before 100k.

Hmm.. Real?

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding mindrust and the comments WOers occasionally make about him (including haikus & other poems, and bat-slappings too), I don't think they are meant as insulting or derogatory. Personally, I don't have anything against him. I've even merited him, and he has merited me here in WO. I think most of the references to him and his "mindrust action", are merely to warn others who may be inclined to do the same. They serve as a warning and a lesson to all of us to keep our cool and not flinch at times of big corrections. Because big corrections can happen, and will happen. If anything, mindrust is, perhaps without even knowing it, actively helping and protecting others from making the same mistake.

If he ever came back here in WO, I'd greet him warmly, and welcome his comments on his "mindrust action" and his current thinking about Bitcoin and the way forward. It would make an interesting discussion. Nothing at all against him on my side.

I largely agree with most everything you say here, AlcoHoDL, except I surely continue to believe that mindrust continues to NOT have anything that is very helpful to say about the "mindrust action," and part of the explanation seems to be that he still fails and refuses to see and understand what he did wrong.. so gosh, sure that can be a bit helpful to show why sometimes people who sell too much too early will frequently rationalize themselves into a kind of fantasyland.. and surely how helpful can it be to see someone going through fantasyland thinking and arguing those points here, if he were to come here.

O.k.. o.k. o.k.  I understand that there is more nuance than what I am making it out to be, so maybe we do need to get mindrust to come back and to bat around some of his nonsense here for a while so we can get refreshed about where he, personally, is at in these times, but I cannot really guarantee that I might not have some lecturing to give him, even though it's not really going to help.. .. almost anyone can come here anyhow, unless they get banned or something if they are an obvious shill/troll, so there is that angle too in which mindrust surely is capable of a decent amount of rational explanation.. but I think that he is not here because there would be some difficulties for him to really handle what some of us would be throwing at him, including asking him to justify where he is at right now.. what the fuck is he doing?  Buying NFTs.. hahahahhaha?

fees were always like crazy if a lot of people withdraw or buy I start to think it’s impossible to escape from them

Seems like you already said that a few posts back.

Do you have anything more meaningful to contribute besides Big blocker whining talking points from 2.5 years ago?

[Syke]

https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/why-wells-fargo/products-services/lending/securities-based.htm
Yes, best rates are for those with lots of assets.

Ret accounts are NOT eligible, though.

Mind you, I have done nothing of the sorts so far, but I am studying the question (after Saylor's remarks).

This definitely warrants some consideration.

[nullius]

Sold a tiny piece just to say I sold some over 60k

acquired a tiny piece just to say I bought some over $61k

Am I the only one after Microstrategy? Did I disrupt the price?

0.005219 @ $61307.90

I am bookmarking this post.

In the future, there will be a market correction.  Bitcoin will crash hard, all the way down to $100k.  The media will scream that Bitcoin is dead.  The mindrusts will be shaken out.  Then, Bitcoin will continue up to $1m.

Amidst the fracas, n00bs will quote you with their wishes that they had a time machine to buy dirt-cheap at only $61k.


Open offer to readers of the Wall Observer:  I hereby offer to sell my Bitcoin.  All of it.

The price that I offer is 1000 sats per USDT.

This offer is time-limited and non-negotiable.  Escrow will be required, unless the buyer is theymos or a well-known Core developer or [well, there is no replacement for Lauda].  Serious inquiries only!  PM or e-mail me.  Preferably, use PGP.

Of course, it would be stupid to take this offer while you can still get >1600 sats at market.  And of course, I would immediately swap the Tethers back to Bitcoin!  (And then offer you the Bitcoin—until either you run out of Tethers, or this perpetual motion arbitrage feedback loop moves the whole market.)

I make this offer by way of demonstrating a point:  Someday, people will want a time machine so that they can take me up on this.  Nonetheless, the offer is serious:  I always keep my word!

The number will go down.  I think that I will soon revise it to 833 sats per USDT, or maybe 750 sats per USDT, so act fast!

[Hueristic]

I largely agree with most everything you say here, AlcoHoDL, except I surely continue to believe that mindrust continues to NOT have anything that is very helpful to say about the "mindrust action," and part of the explanation seems to be that he still fails and refuses to see and understand what he did wrong.. so gosh, sure that can be a bit helpful to show why sometimes people who sell too much too early will frequently rationalize themselves into a kind of fantasyland.. and surely how helpful can it be to see someone going through fantasyland thinking and arguing those points here, if he were to come here.

O.k.. o.k. o.k.  I understand that there is more nuance than what I am making it out to be, so maybe we do need to get mindrust to come back and to bat around some of his nonsense here for a while so we can get refreshed about where he, personally, is at in these times, but I cannot really guarantee that I might not have some lec

Actually he has admitted that he no longer believes in TA and does not listen to Masterluc anymore. 

Baby steps.