Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Bloody Sunday has gone, however market is still surviving.

In fact, we're passing a crucial point in time. Hold your breath. Shit always happens on those panic sellers.

This is nothing other than a good time to accumulate. It's still a bull market. No need to hold the breath. 

So, are we supposed to hold our breath or not?

Yes?

[JayJuanGee]

I think that there is also a kind of consensus evolving in recent times that even today, you need $2million as compared to what a millionaire would have been in 2010-ish   So $1million will give you about $3,333 in passive income per month and sure double that with $2million.. to $6,667 per month of passive income.

There is NO consensus that 1mil gives you 3.3 thou a month of passive income.
Where are you getting these numbers?
Buying dividend stock or 10 year treasury is NOT passive income.
Spending down your 1 mil is also not considered passive income.
You keep saying that over and over, but it is absolutely erroneous.
I would be in agreement if you say that you can probably spend 3.3% of your stash every year without ever running out, but stop calling it "passive income".
Passive income is "earnings derived from a rental property, limited partnership, or other enterprise in which a person is not actively involved."
This is what passive income is, but it is NOT spending down your stash.

I am fairly certain dividends from stock/shares, interest received from savings, royalties, is a form of passive income. However, unless you are retired, DRP is the way to go!

Everyone’s situation is different and how they invest and plan for future retirement will be different, but the one thing we can all agree on is, we never want to worry about where to find that extra $100 to pay a late bill.

Besides, you should be aiming to increase your overall wealth by minimum 10% each year. Then you only need to worry about choosing “his and her” matching colour Lambos... or his/his (Bob)

I am not sure what DRP is, and if you are suggesting that it is a good supplement in terms of a type of asset to generate passive income?

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

It seems to me that if we are managing our own assets, even in the most toughest of times, we should have enough cushion that we are not overly worried about ways to pay various shorter-term expenses that might come in, but if times are rough for a considerable amount of time beyond expectations, we may well have to consider easier measures first in terms of cutting down on some of our costs/expenses in the short term so that later down the road we will not be running into figuring out our cash flow matters.

Regarding your target of increasing wealth by a minimum of 10% per year (I would add on average), I am in full agreement with that kind of targeting during accumulation of wealth phases, but once you get into either maintenance or even liquidation stages, the goals might change including whether you might merely be attempting to maintain value (however you measure that) or even starting to draw down the value.... So a goal of 10% per year minimum (on average) seems to ONLY apply to the accumulation phase - even if incidentally value might still increase in maintenance stage and even in liquidation stage, based on market movements.

[Richy_T]

[novel]

[Richy_T]

That's a kind of thing that happens to each of us if we happen to be so lucky as to get older, even if such thing might NOT happen in such extremes, some variation of that does happen with age.

I'm pretty sure odd looking mustaches are optional. At least, I sure hope so.

[Richy_T]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

[JayJuanGee]

The 4% "safe withdrawal" rate comes from a "passive investment" in a broad based index or mutual fund of approximately 60% stocks and equities, and 40% bonds. Putting your money in the S&P 500 or a Total Stock Market fund would achieve similar results.

The study also uses 30 years as a retirement number, how long you can stay retired.

There are several calculators out there, but you can try for example firecalc.com

If you input $1m and $40k as annual withdrawal for 30 years, you get a 95% success rate. Out of 120 possible 30 year cycle periods, 6 failed.

Even if you use some sound money investment strategies as a guide, if you are your own money manager, you likely are going to want to do a wee bit of thinking for yourself in terms of what asset classes you are investing in, what levels of returns do you expect and what levels of withdrawal do you expect.

For example, in a quote cited by Phil_S, earlier, there was a suggestion that if the returns in the fund are greater than you expected then you could withdraw greater than expected, and I personally would consider that as a dumbass strategy that unless your goal is to draw down principle and you are in a liquidation phase. Also, fuck the 30 year timeline, you can make the timeline whatever you want, unless you happen to want to 30 year timeline, but my idea is to draw at a rate that allows the ability to draw and continue to draw at that rate to be perpetual, until such time as you change your mind and decide to increase your withdraw rate to start to deplete principle. 

In other words, strategies that you create should attempt to reflect your specific goals and your specific situation instead of blindly following some structure created by someone else in a different time and likely applying to different asset classes since we are also considering king daddy here, and not some random asset class, even though index funds have been a historical reference and can still serve as a jumping off point in order to consider the possible reasonableness and prudence of your assessments.

[Biodom]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

OT: can anyone rationalize doge for me and when it is going to stop? There is something weird about this. Is it just like XRP in 2017 or are we going to meme-ize the large chunk of our investments?
In a funny way it shows the power of a "Sovereign Individual" (Musk is certainly the example of such). I would have to re-read it (SI book) yet again.
In a way doggy looks like a purposeful distraction from bitcoin.

[BitcoinBunny]

Is Proudhon's true identity Bill Gates by any chance?

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1425225/bill-gates-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-price-prediction-value-rishi-sunak-britcoin-spt

[julian071]

There's a wall on Kraken!

[philipma1957]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

OT: can anyone rationalize doge for me and when it is going to stop? There is something weird about this. Is it just like XRP in 2017 or are we going to meme-ize the large chunk of our investments?
In a funny way it shows the power of a "Sovereign Individual" (Musk is certainly the example of such). I would have to re-read it (SI book) yet again.
In a way doggy looks like a purposeful distraction from bitcoin.

 I could could explain what happened with doge but not on this thread. As this is a btc thread.

[Biodom]

Of course, if we keep most of our value in BTC (and maybe some in fiat), then we might consider ways to formulate systems that allow us to be able to draw from our BTC in some kind of way without having to either worry about the overly depletion of value within our intended timeframe or having psychological pressures regarding either from where to draw upon sources or that we might not have a sufficient cushion (your example of paying the $100 late bill).

If and when Bitcoin reaches stability, we will, of course, have to seek other options if we wish to grow our wealth. That'll likely be the traditional investment categories, stocks, shares, loans, the normal gubbins. Hopefully by that time, they will be denominated in Bitcoin. Just living off the stash might well be a reasonable option for many though.

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

OT: can anyone rationalize doge for me and when it is going to stop? There is something weird about this. Is it just like XRP in 2017 or are we going to meme-ize the large chunk of our investments?
In a funny way it shows the power of a "Sovereign Individual" (Musk is certainly the example of such). I would have to re-read it (SI book) yet again.
In a way doggy looks like a purposeful distraction from bitcoin.

 I could could explain what happened with doge but not on this thread. As this is a btc thread.

yea, btc+covid+Trump+nft+(boobs+asses)...the latter two being essential components, I agree.
@JJG ramblings notwithstanding, this thread is officially blessed (by btctalk officionados) for occasional OT posts (well, I do agree that eth/ERC20, forks and XRP should be out).

[Richy_T]

as long as we agree that living off the stash is not passive income, it is "living off the stash aka eating your seed corn", albeit if you don't foresee any more harvest seasons, eating seed corn is fine.

I agree with you in the strict definition but if you're thinking in filthy fiat, and think Bitcoin is going to be fairly monotonically increasing forever, it kinda amounts to the same thing. Neither of these notions are particularly good ideas though.

[Hueristic]

Ethereum the best

[El duderino_]

TIME magazine, the 98 year-old publication, will accept #bitcoin for subscriptions and hodl it on their balance sheet.
https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1384103896465903620?s=20

[JayJuanGee]

I stacked some more btc today.  dip looks good.


@ Sayeds56


"Please share any news or Technical analysis behind this 60K Price prediction."


  is all I got

Aka SOMA...

The 4% "safe withdrawal" rate comes from a "passive investment" in a broad based index or mutual fund of approximately 60% stocks and equities, and 40% bonds. Putting your money in the S&P 500 or a Total Stock Market fund would achieve similar results.

The study also uses 30 years as a retirement number, how long you can stay retired.

There are several calculators out there, but you can try for example firecalc.com

If you input $1m and $40k as annual withdrawal for 30 years, you get a 95% success rate. Out of 120 possible 30 year cycle periods, 6 failed.

one issue: life extension drugs that may appear. now your 30 year retirement is 60 years. give or take. plan accordingly.

Even though I tend to believe that a lot of the life extension ideas are fantasies rather than anything realistic that any of us should expect, I do agree with the idea of attempting to create a system that allows for a perpetual withdrawal rate, which would thereafter allow you to UP the withdrawal rate at a later date in order to start to dip into the principle.

I personally do not believe that a retirement plan should be designed with an exact window in which to use everything up until such date is known or comfortable.

In the end, each of us should be attempting to identify and to plan to follow a system that is customized to our circumstances and our comfort level. 

Also, even though I have a tendency to go overboard on making sure that I have a pretty BIG ass cushion, I find it a wee bit problematic when some members seem to be creating obstacles that seem to delay the allowance of pulling the fuck you lever - so in any event, there is going to be some balancing needs in terms of neither pulling the fuck you lever too soon and also being way too reluctant to pull such lever even when everything might not be aligned, even though you may well have enough finances to actually follow through with pulling such fuck you lever.

edit: and i can feel those  Pfizer 5G nanobots feeding me lifeforce as i type, especially now that ive had the 2nd injection. 5 bars of 5G signal on my phone now and no 5G towers in 100 miles of here. sweet bonus, that! i have become.. become.. well.. something.

hahahahahaha.. wish all you like, sure there might be some things that you may be able to do to add a few years due to your richie status, but most likely the meat wagon is going to catch up to each of us and real life events are likely going to take away some of that living forever optimism.. blah blah blah.. not wishing any ill-will on anyone specifically... just trying some "real" talk on this here WO sometimes fantasy thread.

[AlcoHoDL]

Einstein said time is relative. Reading WO proves this. Away for 1 day due to super-crazy stuff happening at work. Came back and saw the flood of posts. Time is relative indeed!

Managed to observe BTC price from my phone. We had a "dip inside a DIP", and are now nicely recovering. IOW, business as usual. Honey badger was bitten by a cobra and is now recovering. Poor thing (the cobra).

Lots of fine posts here, by the usual quality WO residents. You know who you are. +WOsMerits to you all.

I see the occasional trolls are ever present, shilling shitcoins, especially during times of "crisis" (as if...). Again, you know who you are. Fuck you.

A true HoDLer knows how to separate the signal from the noise. Price charts are user-adjustable digital filters in disguise, and can do all the work for those who know how to use them. All that's needed is to lower the cutoff frequency (a.k.a. Zoom Out^TM). That's why long-horizon moving averages, such as the 52/208-week MA, are such good indicators. But what do the noobs and weak hands do? They zoom in and get rekt by the white noise. I guess it's a kind of Darwinian "survival of the fittest" principle. Maybe it's a good thing.

The future of a random or unknown process cannot be predicted, but Bitcoin is neither random nor unknown. Satoshi Nakamoto has given us inside information since its inception and for the next 120 years. Use it!

[Hueristic]

Can one of you Euros give a synopsis of what all this Super League shit is all about?

[Hhampuz]

Can one of you Euros give a synopsis of what all this Super League shit is all about?

It's basically a few top clubs in different leagues deciding to create their own league on the side, similar to champions league, where you have to be part of it and you can never drop out/qualify in to it. A lot of people say this is bad because it will take away the dreams of some teams to take part in the largest tournament (champions league) with a chance to win against the big boys. Super league teams on the other hand say that they carry these tournaments but aren't getting enough of the money to participate and in the case of them missing out one year it fucks them over royally.

This is basically a money vs money fight and in the end there's probably no winner.

[JayJuanGee]

There is NO consensus that 1mil gives you 3.3 thou a month of passive income.
Where are you getting these numbers?

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/beyond-4-rule-how-much-can-you-safely-spend-retirement

One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It’s relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement. In subsequent years, you adjust the dollar amount you withdraw to account for inflation. By following this formula, you should have a very high probability of not outliving your money during a 30-year retirement according to the rule.

For example, let’s say your portfolio at retirement totals $1 million. You would withdraw $40,000 in your first year of retirement. If the cost of living rises 2% that year, you would give yourself a 2% raise the following year, withdrawing $40,800, and so on for the next 30 years.

The 4% rule assumes you withdraw the same amount from your portfolio every year, adjusted for inflation

This is called SWR (safe withdrawal rate), NOT passive income.
You (and @JJG) are mixing two concepts together.

Of course, I cannot speak for Phil_S, but I give less than one ratt's ass if you want to call it SWR rather than passive income, and several times, I already stated various ways to reasonably consider the matter...and you want to get all bogged down on semantics that you believe better capture the ideas about how you would rather to consider the matter.

By the way, I further state that I consider "passive income" to be more descriptive in terms of what is attempting to be achieved (which is to have an income) without having to work rather than your "safe withdrawal rate" which hardly captures any kinds of ideas that we have been talking about.  What you trying to be safe from?  Safe from depleting your principle, perhaps?  I see no reason to change the descriptors based on your attempts at lame technical gottchas.

I think that there is also a kind of consensus evolving in recent times that even today, you need $2million as compared to what a millionaire would have been in 2010-ish   So $1million will give you about $3,333 in passive income per month and sure double that with $2million.. to $6,667 per month of passive income.

<snip>

I am fairly certain dividends from stock/shares, interest received from savings, royalties, is a form of passive income. However, unless you are retired, DRP is the way to go!

Everyone’s situation is different and how they invest and plan for future retirement will be different, but the one thing we can all agree on is, we never want to worry about where to find that extra $100 to pay a late bill.

Besides, you should be aiming to increase your overall wealth by minimum 10% each year. Then you only need to worry about choosing “his and her” matching colour Lambos... or his/his (Bob)

Maybe, but no one should rely on dividends as a firm number. In 2008 many dividend paying stocks were decimated together with everything else.

No one should blanketly attempt to create expectations out of centrally controlled assets, and surely every asset has a variety of particulars that need to be considered, and how much those particulars matter will depend, in part, upon how much of your value is tied up in such assets and what kind of timeline you expect to continue to have some or all of your value tied up in such assets.

aminorex, aminorex, where art thou aminorex?

His smartness got him distracted into a shitcoin, aka Monero....  which ended up showing that sometimes smartness cannot save peeps from dumb.

 

[Hueristic]

Can one of you Euros give a synopsis of what all this Super League shit is all about?

It's basically a few top clubs in different leagues deciding to create their own league on the side, similar to champions league, where you have to be part of it and you can never drop out/qualify in to it. A lot of people say this is bad because it will take away the dreams of some teams to take part in the largest tournament (champions league) with a chance to win against the big boys. Super league teams on the other hand say that they carry these tournaments but aren't getting enough of the money to participate and in the case of them missing out one year it fucks them over royally.

This is basically a money vs money fight and in the end there's probably no winner.

Thanks man.