Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rolling]

Anyone advocating for more taxes has been watching too much MSNBC. It's not about feeling sympathy for people who have billions, it's about people thinking the government is their daddy.

Do you think billionaires are swimming around in a pool of gold coins or pallets of $100s? Nearly all of the wealth that people are complaining about is on paper. Jeff Bezos owns a bunch of Amazon shares. If you raise the capital gains tax, he'll just never sell those shares. If the capital gains tax was lowered however, he might sell those shares and invest that money in some other endeavor which could create millions of new jobs. I'm betting the guy who created Amazon is a lot smarter than anyone in the government.

Nearly all the wealth in the world is invested in companies and profits are reinvested in other companies to create more and more jobs. Taxes stifle growth. All taxes are a deterrent to economic activity.

The Government is not your baby daddy and the more money the government takes, the less economic activity, jobs etc.

Anyone advocating too little taxes on extreme wealth is a puppet for extremely wealthy people.

I mean seriously. Look at the common good. Be a patriot. Care for your fellow countrymen.

Also this trickle down shit has been debunked for ages.

I didn't say anything about trickle down. I'm saying taxes are already outrageous and higher taxes will only hurt the economy and help nobody. If we want to help people we should be cutting everyone's taxes.

The common good is a smaller nanny state where you have to work for what you get. I do care, it's tough love though. People need to stand up for what made the world as amazing as it is. It wasn't big government or social "justice". It was hard work.

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[nullius]

Anyone advocating for more taxes has been watching too much MSNBC. It's not about feeling sympathy for people who have billions, it's about people thinking the government is their daddy.

Do you think billionaires are swimming around in a pool of gold coins or pallets of $100s? Nearly all of the wealth that people are complaining about is on paper. Jeff Bezos owns a bunch of Amazon shares. If you raise the capital gains tax, he'll just never sell those shares. If the capital gains tax was lowered however, he might sell those shares and invest that money in some other endeavor which could create millions of new jobs. I'm betting the guy who created Amazon is a lot smarter than anyone in the government.

Nearly all the wealth in the world is invested in companies and profits are reinvested in other companies to create more and more jobs. Taxes stifle growth. All taxes are a deterrent to economic activity.

The Government is not your baby daddy and the more money the government takes, the less economic activity, jobs etc.

Anyone advocating too little taxes on extreme wealth is a puppet for extremely wealthy people.

I mean seriously. Look at the common good. Be a patriot. Care for your fellow countrymen.

Also this trickle down shit has been debunked for ages.

Anyone advocating taxes on extreme wealth is a delusionally foolish naïf.

That quasi-Commie rhetoric about “the common good” is sucker-bait for commoners to embrace a system which taxes them.  Not the extremely wealthy—who have armies of lawyers and accountants, plus political “connections” in the same sense that a master connects to his dog with a leash.  The capitalist system is fundamentally corrupt, it is stacked in favour of the extremely wealthy, and raising taxes will not change that!

Why do you suppose that, for example, Warren Buffet advocates for the Marxist death tax—whilst he simultaneously assures Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that upon his death, only about 1% of his estate will be liquidated to pay taxes?  Oh, yes:  The death tax is a weapon of mass destruction against small, family-owned businesses, and also against independent family farms.  It is a device to keep BigCorps at the top, and to prevent wealth from accumulating at the bottom and the middle.

The same principles work with income tax, capital gains tax, etc.  That was only the first example that came to mind.  More apropos here, income and capital gains taxes can be used to control the little Bitcoiners whilst investment bankers and Wall Street hedge fund managers have nothing to worry about.

Hit-and-run.  Hi.  Bye.

[BitcoinBunny]

10 friends go out every day for dinner. The bill would be SEK 1,000. The bill was divided in the same way that taxes are paid. The first four - (the poorest) pay nothing; - the 5th pays SEK 10 - the 6th pays SEK 30 - the 7th SEK 70 - the 8th SEK 120 - the 9th SEK 180 - The 10th person (the richest) pays SEK 590.
The ten friends ate dinner at the restaurant every day, happy with the deal. Until one day, when the owner of the restaurant gave them a discount. “You are such good customers. I give you SEK 200 off your dinners. ” Dinner for 10 people now costs SEK 800.

They still wanted to pay for the dinner the way taxes are paid in Sweden. The first four people were not affected. They were allowed to continue eating for free. But what would the other 6 do - those who paid? How would they divide the discount of SEK 200 so that everyone would get their share? They realized that SEK 200 divided by 6 would be SEK 33.33. But if they deducted it from each person's share, the 5th and 6th person would be paid to eat. The restaurant owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each person's bill proportionately. He calculated the amounts each person would pay:

The result was that the 5th person also got to eat for free - the 6th had to pay SEK 20 - the 7th paid SEK 50 - the 8th SEK 90 - the 9th SEK 120 - the 10th person paid SEK 520 instead of the previous SEK 590. Everyone got a lower price than before and now the first five could eat for free. Outside the restaurant, they began to compare what they had saved. "I only earned a tenth of the discount!", The 6th person began. He pointed to the 10th person, "… but he earned 70 kroner !!!" - "Exactly, I also only saved ten", said the 5th person. "It's unfair that he got seven times as much as I did!"
"It's true!" Shouted the 7th person. “Why should he get SEK 70 back when I only got SEK 20? The rich always gets the most! ”-“ Wait a minute ”, shouted the first four,“ We ​​got nothing! This system exploits us poor! ”

The nine people scolded the 10th and called him a cold-hearted egoist, a capitalist pig, a bloodsucker who kicks those who lie down. The next night, the 10th person didn't come to dinner. The other nine said " how nice", sat down and ate. When the bill came, they discovered something. They couldn't pay it. SEK 520 was missing.

This is why I always pay an equal share of everything whenever I go to a strip joint.
Imagine relying on a rich friend and he doesn't turn up one night.
The horror.

[Richy_T]

Ironically my favourite motorway in the UK is the M6 expressway toll that bypasses Birmingham. It is always quiet, not having to negotiate heavy goods and there is still a hard shoulder lane. The latter I find trully astonishing is being removed from almost every other motorway in the UK under the name of "smart" motorway. It seems incredibly dangerous and completely stupid, just to save a buck instead of building more proper lanes and keeping the safety lane in place for emergencies and emergency vehicles.

Last time I was back in the UK I hopped on the M4 and it was scary how narrow the lanes are. I'm sure they're no narrower than when I lived there but you kind-of get used to not being able to count the nose-hairs of the guy driving the car in the next lane.

[nullius]

...whenever I go to a strip joint.

Ah, Bunny.  I’ve been intending to inquire, who is this?

I am asking for a friend.  He is performing academic sociological research on the bodily semiotics employed by whatever porn stars are popular nowadays.  For the sake of science, please sauce this girl.  Thanks.

* nullius trolls WO “for the articles”.

[BitcoinBunny]

Ironically my favourite motorway in the UK is the M6 expressway toll that bypasses Birmingham. It is always quiet, not having to negotiate heavy goods and there is still a hard shoulder lane. The latter I find trully astonishing is being removed from almost every other motorway in the UK under the name of "smart" motorway. It seems incredibly dangerous and completely stupid, just to save a buck instead of building more proper lanes and keeping the safety lane in place for emergencies and emergency vehicles.

Last time I was back in the UK I hopped on the M4 and it was scary how narrow the lanes are. I'm sure they're no narrower than when I lived there but you kind-of get used to not being able to count the nose-hairs of the guy driving the car in the next lane.

Yup there are some bad sections but they are even worse when they are actually building these smart motorways. Fair enough they drop the speed to 40 or 50 but it not fun having a truck pass you by that takes up about 98% of his lane's width.

[BitcoinBunny]

...whenever I go to a strip joint.

Ah, Bunny.  I’ve been intending to inquire, who is this?

I am asking for a friend.  He is performing academic sociological research on the bodily semiotics employed by whatever porn stars are popular nowadays.  For the sake of science, please sauce this girl.  Thanks.

* nullius trolls WO “for the articles”.

A youngish Ava Addams.

[Richy_T]

This is the wall observer thread, not the Bolshevik agitator one. I suggest giving Reddit a try.

[bkbirge]

Follow-up question on the capital gains tax: if stock markets drop because people are locking in current profits by selling stock, does that mean they have to pay taxes now? Which would mean the US government potentially gained billions of tax just because Biden made an announcement?

I'm still flabbergasted by the idea that Americans can choose when they want to pay their taxes.

In the UK, we pay 20% on CGT but that’s only on profits. We don’t have an annual wealth tax so it’s only payable when we decide to sell. There was a review on spending/finances a couple of months back but luckily CGT was left alone.

Same in Sweden, but we pay 30% CGT.
But you can dodge most of the tax by opening an investment savings account and buy bitcoin securities, however not your keys, not your bitcoin.

When the next bull cycle starts I will look in to putting half in securities and half in real bitcoins.
That way I might just be able to let my bitcoins just sit there and use the securities/ETF:s for buying and selling the four year cycles .

In the US if you open an IRA (investment retirement account) and invest from that you don't pay any capital gains taxes ever. You can't withdraw without a penalty (10%) until retirement but at that point your withdrawals are taxed as income at the regular income rate. If it's a "self-directed" IRA with check control (a particular legal entity you can set up) then you can invest in almost anything you want, including bitcoin, do as many roundtrips (or not) as you want to and never pay any tax until withdrawal. And you can self custody those coins, keep your keys. Learned about it here on this thread thanks to some great WO'ers.

[JayJuanGee]

It looks like we're heading down to $35k-$40k

Sometimes things are not what they appear to be.  Hopefully, you did not do anything to rash because of your having had jumped to conclusions, likely prematurely.

In a few months, we'll feel sad Bitcoin is down to $75k again.








And yes, I'm posting this just so I can quote myself later

Good good

 Three deep - it's getting harder to take back your comments now

After all of this drama, LoyceV better feel rrreeeeaaaaaallll bbbbbaaaaadddd. 

Better!!!!!   

 

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Well, here we are again, battling for $50k... currently $49485USD/$61845CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Thank gawd I finished paying for our lake last week.

Let's hope that was the bottom.

POLL: Whom, on this wall, will cop the Biden CGT increase??

My guess is nobody.

NOTE: I don't believe it will affect Bob, you can go ahead and buy the rest of TX!

If I was an American, this would affect me. Luckily I'm not. I sold a little over $2m during March and April to buy our lake. I'll have to sell another half mil worth next year to pay the taxes. Then enough in 2023 to pay the taxes on that, ad infinitum.Top CGT rate here is 26.6%... bad enough. At least my remaining coins are tax-free. No wealth tax here (yet).

Bawb? I'm pretty sure the bulk of his ranch came from coins liquidated in 2020, so he escapes the worst of this.

Others? I was curious about that. I'm sure a few OGs qualify. Once again, I think Elwar's cruise ship money came from coins liquidated before 2021.

Anyone else?

I wonder if gembitz is completely or just slightly retarded.

Or just a kid trying to be cool.

Hope so it was the bottom but don't really feel we got it.. If we are not able this week end / in the next days to crush again the 50K, probably we need to see 41-43K area with a wick..

Surely, I have seen this kind of expression of market sentiment many times before, which largely boils down to:  "We have to have down before we are able to have up," and from my point of view, that surely is a dangerous way of thinking about these kinds of bitcoin price dynamic matters because frequently it will cause some otherwise HODLers to gamble upon such ideas of a condition precedent.

Over the years, and maybe even a few tough lessons along the way (getting burnt etc etc), many of us longer term HODLers have learned NOT to come to such nonsense believes, and many of us have adjusted our thinkenings on the topic, which is more like:  "I don't have no fucking clue which way the BTC price is going to go in the short-term, but if the BTC price happens to go down before it goes up, I am going to buy a wee bit moar."

[nullius]

...whenever I go to a strip joint.

Ah, Bunny.  I’ve been intending to inquire, who is this?

I am asking for a friend.  He is performing academic sociological research on the bodily semiotics employed by whatever porn stars are popular nowadays.  For the sake of science, please sauce this girl.  Thanks.

* nullius trolls WO “for the articles”.

A youngish Ava Addams.

Thanks.  So, does she do Bitcoin?

Forget what I said about “science”.  This is the important question!

[Arriemoller]

Anyone advocating for more taxes has been watching too much MSNBC. It's not about feeling sympathy for people who have billions, it's about people thinking the government is their daddy.
[...]

Spot on, I would so have merited this if I had any.

I'll lend you one.

Thank you.

[cAPSLOCK]

Anyone advocating for more taxes has been watching too much MSNBC. It's not about feeling sympathy for people who have billions, it's about people thinking the government is their daddy.

Do you think billionaires are swimming around in a pool of gold coins or pallets of $100s? Nearly all of the wealth that people are complaining about is on paper. Jeff Bezos owns a bunch of Amazon shares. If you raise the capital gains tax, he'll just never sell those shares. If the capital gains tax was lowered however, he might sell those shares and invest that money in some other endeavor which could create millions of new jobs. I'm betting the guy who created Amazon is a lot smarter than anyone in the government.

Nearly all the wealth in the world is invested in companies and profits are reinvested in other companies to create more and more jobs. Taxes stifle growth. All taxes are a deterrent to economic activity.

The Government is not your baby daddy and the more money the government takes, the less economic activity, jobs etc.

Anyone advocating too little taxes on extreme wealth is a puppet for extremely wealthy people.

I mean seriously. Look at the common good. Be a patriot. Care for your fellow countrymen.

Also this trickle down shit has been debunked for ages.

I would rather allow a homeless person live in my house than trust the government to decide how to spend my hard earned money.

[Sayeds56]

Three things my grandfather told me:

2) A Turkish prison is not a good place to be

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvdZgexebqA

Compulsory reference to Midnight Express:







Who are you? Why you edit quotes to my message to make them look I posted that shit?
If we weren't on the WO I would report you.

sorry if you didnt like my post. I have already deleted it.

[fillippone]

sorry if you didnt like my post. I have already deleted it.

I did not.

[nullius]

This is the wall observer thread, not the Bolshevik agitator one. I suggest giving Reddit a try.

Daily reminder that Bolshevism is a bankers’ scheme to trick poor people into begging for slavery, whilst giving emotionally oversensitive bourgeois pseudointellectuals (e.g., Redditors) a dose of feel-good “empathizing” with the working class whom they secretly hate.

[JayJuanGee]

Definitely think this (hopefully temporary) dip has highlighted the somewhat overzealous predictions of late. Some of the alt predictions that were thrown around especially were crazy. Some of those alts have literally dropped right back down to lower than they were 3 years ago.  

With regards to king Bitcoin, I can definitely see a 75K and hopefully a 100K bitcoin later this year. Maybe more.
But 288K or 500K within the year? I doubt it. The 50K and 60K markers just seemed to have been too much of a struggle to quickly get over for something like that I think.

Obviously the long term trend is going up but we are literally at mid Feb prices again and that is with 2 months of quite bullish news.

I hope we continue to follow the Stock 2 flow Plan B model but honestly I'd just be happy if we can reach the likes of 250K-500K by say 2028-2029.
I think eventually his model will fail as it seems too good to be true.

If Saylor and Musk hadn't come along that model would probably already be out of the window by now. That's not to say Bitcoin doesn't go up and the longterm isn't bullish, it's just I think there are several coincidences that sometimes make it appear why a specific model works.

I hope I'm wrong though.

You likely are wrong, and I am not even saying that we need to have a higher top or that anything like a higher top or even a top above $65k is guaranteed because we should all realize that nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia..

Stock to flow is merely a model, and tops may or may not deviate from the projections of such model, and might even deviate considerably without even breaking the model, and so many folks like to speculate about the model breaking, when it can just be adjusted to account for the new data.

  Furthermore, any deviation from the model's trajectories could be to the downside or to the upside, and merely because we have had a wee bit of problemas getting above $50k and $60k hardly is even a blip on the radar or hardly even worth writing home about of supposedly hindering the upside potential of $288k to $500k or the overshooting possibilities of $600k to $1.5 million.. and I am not even saying that any of this is going to happen with any certainty, just saying it is still considerably in the cards for these considerable upsides to happen and even in this particular cycle.

Even if maybe PlanB might be marketing his stock to flow model a bit much and even making some dumb (overly bullish) statements in regards to his model, bitcoin gives hardly no shits about his marketing, his statements or even how eerily accurate his model continues to be in spite of his seemingly ongoingly talking it up.

Definitely think this (hopefully temporary) dip has highlighted the somewhat overzealous predictions of late. Some of the alt predictions that were thrown around especially were crazy. Some of those alts have literally dropped right back down to lower than they were 3 years ago.  

With regards to king Bitcoin, I can definitely see a 75K and hopefully a 100K bitcoin later this year. Maybe more.
But 288K or 500K within the year? I doubt it. The 50K and 60K markers just seemed to have been too much of a struggle to quickly get over for something like that I think.

Obviously the long term trend is going up but we are literally at mid Feb prices again and that is with 2 months of quite bullish news.

I hope we continue to follow the Stock 2 flow Plan B model but honestly I'd just be happy if we can reach the likes of 250K-500K by say 2028-2029.
I think eventually his model will fail as it seems too good to be true.

If Saylor and Musk hadn't come along that model would probably already be out of the window by now. That's not to say Bitcoin doesn't go up and the longterm isn't bullish, it's just I think there are several coincidences that sometimes make it appear why a specific model works.

I hope I'm wrong though.

Plan C: a spring-early summer dip (not lower than 40K), slight upward starting in Aug (EDIT: maybe July?), bull restarting in Sept, accelerating into NOv ETF approval.
Bull culmination in Dec 2021-march 2022 at $150-300K

Even this seemingly SOMA scenario (of a double top and surely ongoingly refined by you Biodom) is not even close to being contrary to the stock to flow model..  and sure, sounds like a possibility that could happen, possibly.

[Arriemoller]

Anyone advocating for more taxes has been watching too much MSNBC. It's not about feeling sympathy for people who have billions, it's about people thinking the government is their daddy.

Do you think billionaires are swimming around in a pool of gold coins or pallets of $100s? Nearly all of the wealth that people are complaining about is on paper. Jeff Bezos owns a bunch of Amazon shares. If you raise the capital gains tax, he'll just never sell those shares. If the capital gains tax was lowered however, he might sell those shares and invest that money in some other endeavor which could create millions of new jobs. I'm betting the guy who created Amazon is a lot smarter than anyone in the government.

Nearly all the wealth in the world is invested in companies and profits are reinvested in other companies to create more and more jobs. Taxes stifle growth. All taxes are a deterrent to economic activity.

The Government is not your baby daddy and the more money the government takes, the less economic activity, jobs etc.

That is not correct.

Remove all bridges and roads in all countries. Let me know which is harder on economy  no roads no bridges
no canals. Or taxes that build roads bridges and canals such as the panama and the suez.

The correct statement is many taxes are ill conceived and they can hurt the economy.

The bridge/underwater car and train tunnel between Malmö and Copenhagen cost absolutely nothing for the taxpayers, it's all funded by loans that's paid of by a bridge toll, and that even includes a brand new artificial island.

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%96resundsf%C3%B6rbindelsen#Finansiering_och_%C3%A4garskap

No English text unfortunately, there's a German site though for the speakers of said language.

But a nice picture I provide can.



And a train drivers view, starting with arriving at Malmö C and going underground Malmö with stop at two stations and then surfacing before entering the bridge and going on to Denmark.
I sometimes like to watch train driver view films just as a relaxation and this is one of them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LE_BlE4DxcA
You don't need taxes to build infrastructure.

Ahh the 108€ ($130) round trip toll bridge. Minimum wage worker in USA ($7.25/hr) would have to work over 2 days full time (17.9hrs) just for the privilege to drive across it. But if they buy online they can save 8€!
https://www.oresundsbron.com/en/prices
Should get one going to my house so those poor plebs don't come visiting! 'murika!

That's for one trip, if you go more frequently it gets cheaper. Or you could just take the train, 12 euro/ 14 bucks That's just two hours of work, you can probably manage.
And it's not like it was free before the bridge was built. The ferry wasn't exactly cheap for cars.

https://www.omio.se/search-frontend/results/E8D6B39040E2E499DAD0E5494D5DB4B86/train?locale=sv

The bridge have increased the traffic fivefold and cut the traveltime not to mention the goods that can now go by train between the countries with all the benefits to the economy that brings.
And lastly, it's in my book just fair that the people who uses the bridge pay for the bridge. Why should the taxpayer collective in Denmark and Sweden pay for that?

Edited.

[d_eddie]

I don't understand this.  Rather than pay a (yet to be proposed) higher capital gains tax, Americans would pull their money out of the markets right now and put it into what?  Is the plan to make no capital gains in the future?!

 

Speaking of yesterday's dump, I don't think it's the Biden tax thing, they would be fools to sell in unison. What kind of a dork would "take profit" selling at 53k and below?

There are the usual valid reasons: futures expiring, Coinbase fuckery, China energy crisis, Turkish exchange exit scam. A tax thing might add to the trend; not generate impulse events such as this. I personally think it's just whales front running a breakout to the mid 70's. The dumps are obviously timed and intentionally designed to inflict max pain.

I personally think it's arbitrage: short futures vs long spot. If I were doing that, I'd prefer the futures (number) to go down rather than up - profit in btc, and the long spot part I could keep in btc for the next rinse&repeat. If it goes the other way (if number go up), you still make the same $ amount, but you've gotta sell the btc you bought (longed) on spot, so in a btc sense you're poorer.

Q: Is this a double top like in some previous cycle?
(som)A: IT might be similar or not, but this ISN'T the top.

F'ing dumpers.

[proudhon]

Giant, likely insurmountable sell wall on Bitstamp. Looks like another humiliating leg down is eminent.