Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

Speaking of socialism and all...

"Capitalism gives power to the capable, so that they can rise UP, above the mass average."
"Communism gives power to the incapable, so that they can bring those above them DOWN to their level."

That's what a secondary school teacher once told us in class. I was in my early teens then. I didn't believe him. Now, in my late 40s, I believe he was absolutely right.

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[rolling]

You mean the US won't stage a military coup to install a right-wing dictator friendly to US big business interests?

Well after January 2021 I wouldn't be so sure. The US might just end up invading itself if it feels itself becoming too socialist.

On that note, it sure would be nice if people knew what socialism means. Are the means of production owned by the workers? No? Not socialist then. Sorry,

The only way the workers can own the means of production is through public ownership by the government. When the government gets that much power, it never ends well. Plus, central planners can never keep up with the billions of price and markets signals that a free market does which leads to shortages, etc.

Workers owning the means of production directly is a utopian fantasy. How would this work exactly?

Also, what is stopping a group of enterprising individuals from creating a company right now where the workers own it and they directly control the means of production? Would the janitors get the same share as the software developers? What happens when a person moves to another company? What if some people are better at saving their money than others? Wouldn't we naturally return to some people having more than others and eventually the exact same wealth gap that we have now? Would you stop it from happening by making it illegal to save your money or live a frugal life? Would it be illegal to change jobs or would you lose your ownership when you changed jobs? Would a new employee just automatically get the same share as somebody working there for 20 years? What about a person who refuses to work at all. Would they still get a share?

Surely there are some socialists out there with some good ideas that would work as a business. Surely there are some altruistic individuals who would forego their billions and split that up evenly with the janitors and accountants.

If it was a superior way to run a businesses, wouldn't all businesses be run like that already? Why do you need the government to change something if the goal isn't to give the government central authority (i.e. Communism)?

[Sayeds56]

~snip

~snip

 The empty shelves remind me of my grocery store on threat of covid lockdown.

COVID‐19: what a disaster

[lightfoot]

Here we go.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-propose-1-8-trillion-plan-aimed-at-families-tax-hikes-for-wealthiest-americans-11619600400

BTW, if you spent $250 at the beginning of 2013, bought 20 btc and held 'them, you already ARE that rich bastard that "needs" to be taxed 43.4%+state tax if you sell to buy a house or a lake ( ).
It sucks to be Mr/Ms smarty pants.

Well, hate to say it but if you only bought 20 bitcoins that's worth $1,000,000 today. Which means if you sell it all it's at the exact same tax rates (in the US) as it was last year. To the dime. The first 250k or so would be taxed at marginal rates up to 20% and the rest would be taxed at a straight 20%.

That's kind of life. So if we simplified the math you get a net profit of $799,750, your initial $250 investment back. I mean yeah I guess that sucks, but compare that to someone who ignored bitcoin and has $0 and none of their avoided investment lost and didnt pay those evil taxes (the freeloaders!)

Taxes are kind of a price to pay to live in a civilized society. In areas with low low tax rates and limited government they have other... issues and your protections against fraud and force are.... well less.

Plus this is per year. So I can pick up 3 Lambos a year at the same tax rates as last year. I could also buy a 20m house, and pay it off at a rate of 800k a year for 30 or so years without hitting an additional penalty. Granted a 30m house is kinda lame but you know if you need bigger than that then maybe you can bitch about the Biden tax.

So... meh?

[Biodom]

We have hybrid systems now.
China is not purely communist and US is not purely capitalist and, btw, in both systems government keeps wanting more power.
There is also a theory that a convergence of both systems (cap and comm) is actually occurring.
So far, we have more personal freedoms, no doubt. They have a bit easier way to organize mass movements of the workforce (for example, doctors in China in response to COVID).
Personally, I prefer more freedom.

[Biodom]

Here we go.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-propose-1-8-trillion-plan-aimed-at-families-tax-hikes-for-wealthiest-americans-11619600400

BTW, if you spent $250 at the beginning of 2013, bought 20 btc and held 'them, you already ARE that rich bastard that "needs" to be taxed 43.4%+state tax if you sell to buy a house or a lake ( ).
It sucks to be Mr/Ms smarty pants.

Well, hate to say it but if you only bought 20 bitcoins that's worth $1,000,000 today. Which means if you sell it all it's at the exact same tax rates (in the US) as it was last year. To the dime. The first 250k or so would be taxed at marginal rates up to 20% and the rest would be taxed at a straight 20%.

That's kind of life. So if we simplified the math you get a net profit of $799,750, your initial $250 investment back. I mean yeah I guess that sucks, but compare that to someone who ignored bitcoin and has $0 and none of their avoided investment lost and didnt pay those evil taxes (the freeloaders!)

Taxes are kind of a price to pay to live in a civilized society. In areas with low low tax rates and limited government they have other... issues and your protections against fraud and force are.... well less.

Plus this is per year. So I can pick up 3 Lambos a year at the same tax rates as last year. I could also buy a 20m house, and pay it off at a rate of 800k a year for 30 or so years without hitting an additional penalty. Granted a 30m house is kinda lame but you know if you need bigger than that then maybe you can bitch about the Biden tax.

So... meh?

First off, you are wrong on math a bit (due to NIIT), second, I was talking about the Biden tax proposal (are you aware of it?), which, if passed, would apply retroactively to Jan 2021, no doubt (to prevent EOY selling).

Math? Even now, you would pay 3.8% NIIT extra PLUS state tax (add 12% more in cali). So, 43.4+state on above 1mil (in proposal).

In my example, only 100K exceeds (bad example), so make it 40 coins for $500, lol, then more than a mil will exceed.

BTW, I also think that 20% tax is fair, and even 23.8% is OK, but 43.4 and above is approaching confiscation. I paid once 39.6% CG tax (had large short term profits in 2000). Man, that was brutal.

[rolling]

Here we go.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-propose-1-8-trillion-plan-aimed-at-families-tax-hikes-for-wealthiest-americans-11619600400

BTW, if you spent $250 at the beginning of 2013, bought 20 btc and held 'them, you already ARE that rich bastard that "needs" to be taxed 43.4%+state tax if you sell to buy a house or a lake ( ).
It sucks to be Mr/Ms smarty pants.

Well, hate to say it but if you only bought 20 bitcoins that's worth $1,000,000 today. Which means if you sell it all it's at the exact same tax rates (in the US) as it was last year. To the dime. The first 250k or so would be taxed at marginal rates up to 20% and the rest would be taxed at a straight 20%.

That's kind of life. So if we simplified the math you get a net profit of $799,750, your initial $250 investment back. I mean yeah I guess that sucks, but compare that to someone who ignored bitcoin and has $0 and none of their avoided investment lost and didnt pay those evil taxes (the freeloaders!)

Taxes are kind of a price to pay to live in a civilized society. In areas with low low tax rates and limited government they have other... issues and your protections against fraud and force are.... well less.

Plus this is per year. So I can pick up 3 Lambos a year at the same tax rates as last year. I could also buy a 20m house, and pay it off at a rate of 800k a year for 30 or so years without hitting an additional penalty. Granted a 30m house is kinda lame but you know if you need bigger than that then maybe you can bitch about the Biden tax.

So... meh?

The problem is not the current 23.8% (3.8% added for Obamacare in 2013), it's the proposed increase to 43.8%.

What if you're not cashing out but just moving money from one investment to another? Doesn't seem as fair when you're not actually cashing out. Maybe there should be separate rates for cashing out or just shifting investments around/rebalancing your portfolio.

[Kylapoiss]

Just wanted to say that buy some BTC!

That's it.

[Dabs]

A .sig I that once saw on—I think it was actually on Usenet, though I don’t recall:  “Real Men don’t do backups.  Real Men cry a lot.”

Linus Torvalds: “Only wimps use tape backup. REAL men just upload their important stuff on ftp and let the rest of the world mirror it.”

Slightly outdated though

I'm actually semi seriously interested in tape backups. The tech for it has improved dramatically and it is still one of the highest density backup systems in the world, and the high end ones are not that slow too (but then, it's like a library with those arms and stuff).. Still, I'd like to have a single tape that backs up my stuff and stores maybe 20 TB or more by now. LTO-8 had 12 TB back in 2017.

Sony and IBM already had tape up to 185 TB in 2014.

[lightfoot]

First off, you are wrong on math a bit (due to NIIT), second, I was talking about the Biden tax proposal (are you aware of it?), which, if passed, would apply retroactively to Jan 2021, no doubt (to prevent EOY selling).

Math? Even now, you would pay 3.8% NIIT extra PLUS state tax (add 12% more in cali). So, 43.4+state on above 1mil (in proposal).

Medicare. Fair enough. State taxes are tricky: You used to be able to deduct them against Federal, but then Trump goat-fucked people with the SALT limit. If that's not repealed then yes this would suck big time (double tap tax). At the same time, one could move to a low tax state, but a lot of those seemed to be.... poor choices for COViD this time around. So it's an interesting mental exercise (how much additional does Bob need to take out for a moat filled with gasoline around his ranch? I don't know. Does that exceed the tax benefits of TX? Not sure)

In my example, only 100K exceeds (bad example), so make it 40 coins for $500, lol, then more than a mil will exceed.

I was assuming a sale price of 50k which is probably an average of what you would get this month. If you have 40 coins then the first 50% are taxed as above, the second 50% are taxed at the higher rate. That does suck, but it's still not bad. And you could avoid it by simply rolling the cost over 2 years (do the whole thing Dec 31/Jan 1.) If more than 2m at a shot is needed then you need to hire a professional.

BTW, I also think that 20% tax is fair, and even 23.8% is OK, but 43.4 and above is approaching confiscation. I paid once 39.6% CG tax (had large short term profits in 2000). Man, that was brutal.

CG is tricky. I've always found it annoying that my labor is taxed at a higher rate than luck+"incredible foresight to invest wisely" (when you come out ahead). Putting the two on a more even footing (they are all "work", some are physical, some are mental, some are a combo of both) always struck me as more fair, but your mileage may vary.

Overall though unless I decide to liquidate a massive stash (and why would anyone do that??? HODL for fucks sake) this is not going to affect me directly.

[lightfoot]

The problem is not the current 23.8% (3.8% added for Obamacare in 2013), it's the proposed increase to 43.8%.

On amounts over 1m-whatever slave wage you get paid in life, correct?

What if you're not cashing out but just moving money from one investment to another? Doesn't seem as fair when you're not actually cashing out. Maybe there should be separate rates for cashing out or just shifting investments around/rebalancing your portfolio.

That's a very good point: My buying a new nano or whatever and moving my coins to it shouldn't result in a 43% hit. That does need to be corrected and is a consequence of the whole IRS decision way back when that treats bitcoins like gold bars or something.

[rolling]

The problem is not the current 23.8% (3.8% added for Obamacare in 2013), it's the proposed increase to 43.8%.

On amounts over 1m-whatever slave wage you get paid in life, correct?

What if you're not cashing out but just moving money from one investment to another? Doesn't seem as fair when you're not actually cashing out. Maybe there should be separate rates for cashing out or just shifting investments around/rebalancing your portfolio.

That's a very good point: My buying a new nano or whatever and moving my coins to it shouldn't result in a 43% hit. That does need to be corrected and is a consequence of the whole IRS decision way back when that treats bitcoins like gold bars or something.

I'm mainly concerned about the capital gains on investments you didn't cash out. A million is more than anyone needs to live in a year.

You don't pay for moving coins to a ledger anyway but not everyone will be 100% bitcoin when it goes above a million. Everyone in the US and on this forum may eventually get hit with the tax when bitcoin goes up combined with hyperinflation. Also, if the US goes to 43.8%, you can bet the EU will follow shortly. What happens when a million is equivalent to a current $100k because of inflation? Could happen in a few years at the current rate.

If you want to shift investments around, you still get hit with the tax even if you didn't take that money out to use. The effect of the tax is it forces everyone to be a holder even if they are holding a bad investment. Good for bitcoin not so good for stocks or companies. It's better for the economy if people can move their investments from shit companies to good companies as their performance fluctuates rather than be locked in due to a 43.8% hit by the government.

[Biodom]

The problem is not the current 23.8% (3.8% added for Obamacare in 2013), it's the proposed increase to 43.8%.

On amounts over 1m-whatever slave wage you get paid in life, correct?

What if you're not cashing out but just moving money from one investment to another? Doesn't seem as fair when you're not actually cashing out. Maybe there should be separate rates for cashing out or just shifting investments around/rebalancing your portfolio.

That's a very good point: My buying a new nano or whatever and moving my coins to it shouldn't result in a 43% hit. That does need to be corrected and is a consequence of the whole IRS decision way back when that treats bitcoins like gold bars or something.

I'm mainly concerned about the capital gains on investments you didn't cash out. A million is more than anyone needs to live in a year.

You don't pay for moving coins to a ledger anyway but not everyone will be 100% bitcoin when it goes above a million. Everyone in the US and on this forum may eventually get hit with the tax when bitcoin goes up combined with hyperinflation. Also, if the US goes to 43.8%, you can bet the EU will follow shortly. What happens when a million is equivalent to a current $100k because of inflation? Could happen in a few years at the current rate.

If you want to shift investments around, you still get hit with the tax even if you didn't take that money out to use. The effect of the tax is it forces everyone to be a holder even if they are holding a bad investment. Good for bitcoin not so good for stocks or companies. It's better for the economy if people can move their investments from shit companies to good companies as their performance fluctuates rather than be locked in due to a 43.8% hit by the government.

Yes, it does not make sense if you sold one investment (especially if no $ exchanged hands) and plowed the proceeds into another, but, unfortunately, it is not how the tax code is written, with the exception of something in real estate (1031 exchanges?). At high taxes, you would be basically stuck and velocity/frequency of large investments would decrease, no doubt about that. The funny thing is that Cali/NY dems are basically revolting and saying-no SALT, no deal, which, if passed, would mean a huge jump in RE prices. Would be a big deal in TX where RE taxes are about 2% of the property value (market, not some old baseline) yearly.

[Elwar]

I've always supported the concept of a communist seastead (progressive/socialist/green, whichever fad name is being used at the time).

I think it would be best to have them try over and over and over and over and over and over again and fail over and over and over and over and over and over again.

But they would fail with people that are voluntarily joining them, so it's their choice. No reason to force it on those that don't want it.

Though, in reality, I have argued that just about any governance structure will work with a community of less than 150 people or so. Early Christianity was communist, they all had a higher purpose for which they were living such that it trumped their own desires (outside of the desire to build a church based on Jesus's teachings). The community was regulated by culture and social norms which could be regulated at the individual level.

Trying to scale it just ends up with USSR, sending people to gulags and shit. Or Cambodia and mass executions. Trying to force people to worship some higher purpose even if they don't believe in it (but you do so you think you're doing the right thing making them conform).

It works if it's at a small scale with everyone agreeing. Trying to centralise it all is what destroys it.

Decentralise all the things.

[mrjoy15]

Just a quick reminder, Bitcoin balance on exchanges constantly diminishing which means less selling pressure.

Less selling pressure lead a clear bull run. HODL some BTC for long haul. BUY NOW!

[Richy_T]

I mean yeah I guess that sucks, but compare that to someone who ignored bitcoin and has $0 and none of their avoided investment lost and didnt pay those evil taxes (the freeloaders!)

Or compare it to the government who ignored bitcoin and has $200,000 of your wealth to spend from it because they decided that's the way it's going to be.

[lightfoot]

I'm mainly concerned about the capital gains on investments you didn't cash out. A million is more than anyone needs to live in a year.

That's a very different animal: Taxing bitcoin as property would be extremely bad, esp at a 48% rate per year. I don't think that is being proposed.

You don't pay for moving coins to a ledger anyway but not everyone will be 100% bitcoin when it goes above a million. Everyone in the US and on this forum may eventually get hit with the tax when bitcoin goes up combined with hyperinflation. Also, if the US goes to 43.8%, you can bet the EU will follow shortly. What happens when a million is equivalent to a current $100k because of inflation? Could happen in a few years at the current rate.

I think you do: If you move coins from an address to another then I thought it was a taxable event ("work" is being done, like those crazy Jewish sabbath rules). Maybe if it's not in your control, but if that's the case then the argument should be move coins around at will, tax when converted into fiat.

If you want to shift investments around, you still get hit with the tax even if you didn't take that money out to use. The effect of the tax is it forces everyone to be a holder even if they are holding a bad investment. Good for bitcoin not so good for stocks or companies. It's better for the economy if people can move their investments from shit companies to good companies as their performance fluctuates rather than be locked in due to a 43.8% hit by the government.

Agreed. This is something to work for. At that point it would be like a "tax free" 401k where you can move amounts around but are taxed on the ultimate withdrawls to fiat.

[Richy_T]

There is also a theory that a convergence of both systems (cap and comm) is actually occurring.

[Richy_T]

I'm actually semi seriously interested in tape backups. The tech for it has improved dramatically and it is still one of the highest density backup systems in the world, and the high end ones are not that slow too (but then, it's like a library with those arms and stuff).. Still, I'd like to have a single tape that backs up my stuff and stores maybe 20 TB or more by now. LTO-8 had 12 TB back in 2017.

Sony and IBM already had tape up to 185 TB in 2014.

I tried doing tape for a while. I found a 40/80 left in a PC for trash pickup at work. The problem is, I soon found my backup needs exceeding tape capacity and upgrading tape drives is *expensive*. Backing up to hard-drives is much more sustainable. I'd still do tape if money was no object or for a business but for personal use, prices would have to come down a lot.

[Richy_T]

CG is tricky. I've always found it annoying that my labor is taxed at a higher rate than luck+"incredible foresight to invest wisely" (when you come out ahead). Putting the two on a more even footing (they are all "work", some are physical, some are mental, some are a combo of both) always struck me as more fair, but your mileage may vary.

It's a trick question. Both are shitty.