Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gyrsur]

POMA Wyckoff

Phase D (Accumulation)

The Phase D represents the transition between the Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E).

Typically, the Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility. It usually has a Last Point Support (LPS), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports.
Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E.

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[Heater]

A bullish video for today:

Bitcoin - Road to 1 Trillion Dollars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_-CvBngUus

[Gyrsur]

Carol Dweck: A Summary of Growth and Fixed Mindsets

The Power of … Yet

[Richy_T]

as custodians and managers of their assets (fiat, Bitcoin or whatever else comes along).

Disagree. As soon as you have custodians, you have promissory notes and as soon as you have promissory notes, we're right back where we were.

I have no doubt this is a problem that can be solved without throwing the Bitcoin baby out with the bathwater.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

some new short fibs presenting themselves

#dyor

butterfly dries his wings
4h



D

#stronghands

[Dabs]

if there's an afterlife, which I very much doubt there is).

I am a big fan of the afterlife too... but what are the odds.. pretty damned low.  I would be surprised (shocked) if such odds were even as high as 1%.

Not going to debate about such things, but in over six thousand years of written recorded history, plenty of people talk about such afterlife, in different forms. I suspect the odds are higher than 1%.

I mean, you have at least three major Abrahamic religions, and more than a few couple billion believe in some sort of diety, such beliefs having a discussion on the afterlife.

You can also think of it as a hedge, just like investing, or risk management. We can pretend for a moment that such decisions are binary, one or zero, true or false. To the question, is there an afterlife? Yes or No? Then behave your current life according to the answer. The other question is, if the answer is no, then it makes no difference no matter what you do, but if the answer is yes, then would it be worth the risk to do anything against that?

I err on the side of caution.

[Hueristic]

$40,420.20


Not sure why but I really liked seeing this price.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

if there's an afterlife, which I very much doubt there is).

I am a big fan of the afterlife too... but what are the odds.. pretty damned low.  I would be surprised (shocked) if such odds were even as high as 1%.

Not going to debate about such things, but in over six thousand years of written recorded history, plenty of people talk about such afterlife, in different forms. I suspect the odds are higher than 1%.

hahahaha

Probably you are correct that it is not a great topic to debate about, and I am going to stick to my number (less than 1%) absent getting better evidence than a lot of people believe that the number is higher.

I mean, you have at least three major Abrahamic religions, and more than a few couple billion believe in some sort of diety, such beliefs having a discussion on the afterlife.

Sure... lot's of people hope

and sure a lot of people want there to be an afterlife.

Sure, a lot of these people are very smart, too.

I am sticking with my less than 1% number.

You can also think of it as a hedge, just like investing, or risk management.

Oh so you think that if I believe in something that is not likely to exist, the fact that I believe is going to increase the chances that it does actually exist.

Does not sound like a good reason to move up my number.

I am sticking with my less than 1% number.

We can pretend for a moment that such decisions are binary, one or zero, true or false. To the question, is there an afterlife? Yes or No? Then behave your current life according to the answer. The other question is, if the answer is no, then it makes no difference no matter what you do, but if the answer is yes, then would it be worth the risk to do anything against that?

I err on the side of caution.

Actually fair enough that the answer is likely to be a binary.  

Either an afterlife exists or it does not.

I still don't see how my believing makes any difference?

You are suggesting that my behavior is more likely to be immoral if I do not believe in the yes of afterlife?, so therefore you would prefer me to be MOAR moral and civilized and therefore you believe that I need to believe in order to be constraint my lil selfie from doing what I would really want to do, whether lambos, hookers, blow or otherwise?  

Makes little sense.

I am sticking with my less than 1% number.

$40,420.20


Not sure why but I really liked seeing this price.

Just remember that no matter how much you "like" such number, the number is temporary.

That's all.

[lightfoot]

The solution is simple: Get your head frozen and have this tattoed on your forehead:

In this brain is the seed code for 10btc. Restore me to life and it is yours.

Then when bitcoin will buy entire planets whole civilizations will devote their best scientists to reviving your sorry ass. And when you are revived you give them the 10btc wallet code...

Then walk out with your 100btc wallet code still in your head. And into a bright new future.

It's pretty much foolproof: If bitcoin craters then who wants to be alive for that. And if the world is a crapsack world you just kill yourself again.

[Hueristic]

The solution is simple: Get your head frozen and have this tattoed on your forehead:

In this brain is the seed code for 10btc. Restore me to life and it is yours.

Then when bitcoin will buy entire planets whole civilizations will devote their best scientists to reviving your sorry ass. And when you are revived you give them the 10btc wallet code...

Then walk out with your 100btc wallet code still in your head. And into a bright new future.

It's pretty much foolproof: If bitcoin craters then who wants to be alive for that. And if the world is a crapsack world you just kill yourself again.

Woah woah! Lets not go overboard!

There's always gonna be Hookers and Blow to live for!

Just have to suffer through no Lambo's!

[cAPSLOCK]

7=a1m'9?T7G0w5q{^QetXyV08^y7Tk4-

That password has 167 bits of entropy.  It would be practically impossible to guess.  Also practically impossible to remember.  

Good idea for a password.  I am going to use that one, especially since it's so solid.

Great Idea!

I'll use it too and I'll never have to worry about forgetting it because its backed up right here!

You know... as a fellow card player.  A deck of cards is one of the great analogies to a bitcoin key.  In fact a (well) shuffled deck dealt out offers 232 bits of entropy.  Just a few bits shy of a 24 word seed!  It can actually produce a 21 word seed.

But people do not realize how fantastically many possible combinations of a deck of card has (52! or ~8e67) In fact, did you know that it is EXTREMELY unlikely that a properly shuffled deck will repeat a sequence ever dealt from another properly shuffled deck?  As in, ever?  

For fun I actually dealt this sequence from this deck of bicycle cards sitting next to me:

6h9sQd2c5hAd4c7hTsKd3c8sJdAc4h7c9hQs2d5c8hJsTdKc3h6s9dQc2h5s8dJcAh4s7dTcKh3s6d9 cQh2s5d8cJhAs4d7sThKs3d6c  
-or-
6♥ 9♠ Q♦ 2♣ 5♥ A♦ 4♣ 7♥ T♠ K♦ 3♣ 8♠ J♦ A♣ 4♥ 7♣ 9♥ Q♠ 2♦ 5♣ 8♥ J♠ T♦ K♣ 3♥ 6♠ 9♦ Q♣ 2♥ 5♠ 8♦ J♣ A♥ 4♠ 7♦ T♣ K♥ 3♠ 6♦ 9♣ Q♥ 2♠ 5♦ 8♣ J♥ A♠ 4♦ 7♠ T♥ K♠ 3♦ 6♣
-or-
then viable coral multiply puppy inquiry clap camera rebel smile fish tackle pull pledge regular embark session inner select knock furnace

The first address in the BIP44 sequence would be 12hZ1awWPMo4tGfYeHqZL2bhJr3DRafsqK (or bc1qpfaa7ms34k42jwl8eymdnxxcm2hug7d35dvp3q if you want to save on fees).  You can use this seed along with the password I made you!

If one were traveling to another place and needed a way to transport a private key in a very inconspicuous way one could just have a deck of cards in their luggage in a specific order.  And it would have just as much randomness as a 21 word seed phrase.

Not suggesting people use cards to store their seeds.  Too fragile, and abstracted.  But still a possible thing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

as custodians and managers of their assets (fiat, Bitcoin or whatever else comes along).

Disagree. As soon as you have custodians, you have promissory notes and as soon as you have promissory notes, we're right back where we were.

I have no doubt this is a problem that can be solved without throwing the Bitcoin baby out with the bathwater.

There are two reasons we are not right back to where we are.

1.  The underlying system is sound.
2.  You are not forced to participate in any of these banks, and can indeed be your OWN bank if you wish.

I think that is the distinction that is part of the solution you are predicting.  Custodians can compete to offer advantages to users.  Security, reliability, etc.

The problem is not primarily that we use promissory notes.  But that the foundation on which those promises were made was faulty.

Would you not agree that gold backed currencies had a stronger footing than ones backed by debt?  The problem will be if and when governments figure out how to regain control over the base currency.  I think bitcoin is going to make that VERY difficult.

Actually there is a very good reason for Bitcoin-backed banks to exist, issuing their own digital cash currency, redeemable for bitcoins. Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain. There needs to be a secondary level of payment systems which is lighter weight and more efficient. Likewise, the time needed for Bitcoin transactions to finalize will be impractical for medium to large value purchases.

Bitcoin backed banks will solve these problems. They can work like banks did before nationalization of currency. Different banks can have different policies, some more aggressive, some more conservative. Some would be fractional reserve while others may be 100% Bitcoin backed. Interest rates may vary. Cash from some banks may trade at a discount to that from others.

George Selgin has worked out the theory of competitive free banking in detail, and he argues that such a system would be stable, inflation resistant and self-regulating.

I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks, to settle net transfers. Bitcoin transactions by private individuals will be as rare as... well, as Bitcoin based purchases are today.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Would you not agree that gold backed currencies had a stronger footing than ones backed by debt?

Right. But how did that go? Even before fiat, there are stories of gold being over-subscribed by notes.

Gold has the issue that it's heavy, hard to divide and inconvenient to use for commerce. It's pretty much destined to be locked up in a vault somewhere under the control of others. Bitcoin, whether you believe it's ultimately going to be main chain or mainly second-layer transacted doesn't have that problem. We should solve the issues that Bitcoin has while keeping it Bitcoin, not resort to the traps and follies of old just because it's convenient. Let's not crawl back and lick the hands of our former masters.

The problem is not primarily that we use promissory notes.  But that the foundation on which those promises were made was faulty.

That foundation is human nature. Until we have better humans, "Vires in Numeris".

I do actually have a concern and suspicion that at some point, us ordinary mortals will be banned from transacting directly in Bitcoin much as ownership of gold (in useful quantities) has been outlawed before. Of course, being Bitcoin, they can't stop us transacting in it but if everyone else is in custodial accounts and they're not allowed to transact with you, where does that leave you?

[Hueristic]

You know... as a fellow card player.  A deck of cards is one of the great analogies to a bitcoin key.  In fact a (well) shuffled deck dealt out offers 232 bits of entropy.  Just a few bits shy of a 24 word seed!  It can actually produce a 21 word seed.

But people do not realize how fantastically many possible combinations of a deck of card has (52! or ~8e67) In fact, did you know that it is EXTREMELY unlikely that a properly shuffled deck will repeat a sequence ever dealt from another properly shuffled deck?  As in, ever?  

For fun I actually dealt this sequence from this deck of bicycle cards sitting next to me:

6h9sQd2c5hAd4c7hTsKd3c8sJdAc4h7c9hQs2d5c8hJsTdKc3h6s9dQc2h5s8dJcAh4s7dTcKh3s6d9 cQh2s5d8cJhAs4d7sThKs3d6c  
-or-
6♥ 9♠ Q♦ 2♣ 5♥ A♦ 4♣ 7♥ T♠ K♦ 3♣ 8♠ J♦ A♣ 4♥ 7♣ 9♥ Q♠ 2♦ 5♣ 8♥ J♠ T♦ K♣ 3♥ 6♠ 9♦ Q♣ 2♥ 5♠ 8♦ J♣ A♥ 4♠ 7♦ T♣ K♥ 3♠ 6♦ 9♣ Q♥ 2♠ 5♦ 8♣ J♥ A♠ 4♦ 7♠ T♥ K♠ 3♦ 6♣
-or-
then viable coral multiply puppy inquiry clap camera rebel smile fish tackle pull pledge regular embark session inner select knock furnace

The first address in the BIP44 sequence would be 12hZ1awWPMo4tGfYeHqZL2bhJr3DRafsqK (or bc1qpfaa7ms34k42jwl8eymdnxxcm2hug7d35dvp3q if you want to save on fees).  You can use this seed along with the password I made you!

If one were traveling to another place and needed a way to transport a private key in a very inconspicuous way one could just have a deck of cards in their luggage in a specific order.  And it would have just as much randomness as a 21 word seed phrase.

Not suggesting people use cards to store their seeds.  Too fragile, and abstracted.  But still a possible thing.

Interesting Idea as long as security didn't make a change if they decided to inspect. Lol

The math is beyond me so I did a google and found this.

For completely randomized decks, pn = 1/Ω with n ∈ {1, . . . , Ω} and Ω = 52!, the total
number of possible configurations. Thus, Srandom = log2 52! = 225.581.

Link to PDF:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi0rKvk1ZjxAhW6GFkFHYSYAFEQFjAEegQICBAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcourses.physics.ucsd.edu%2F2012%2FFall%2Fphysics140a%2FHOMEWORK%2FSOL01.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3qKRp6w5ELJMeThariP1rX


And

a full deck of cards provides 225.58 bits of entropy −52! combinations =log2(52!) bits of entropy.

https://crypto.stackexchange.com/questions/41886/entropy-measurement-from-shuffled-cards

So I'm just wondering where you found 232 bits of entropy?

Either way its damn tough to crack so should be a good way to transfer a key as long as no one knows and your going to move the funds as soon as you get where your going. Interesting thought. You could increase with the jokers and rules card as well.

[Richy_T]

Interesting Idea as long as security didn't make a change if they decided to inspect. Lol

Old trick from the punch-card days: Put the cards in the order you want then draw a diagonal line on the side of the deck. Then you can shuffle the cards (in fact, it's preferable to disguise the line) and can put them back into order later.

[xhomerx10]

The solution is simple: Get your head frozen and have this tattoed on your forehead:

In this brain is the seed code for 10btc. Restore me to life and it is yours.

Then when bitcoin will buy entire planets whole civilizations will devote their best scientists to reviving your sorry ass. And when you are revived you give them the 10btc wallet code...

Then walk out with your 100btc wallet code still in your head. And into a bright new future.

It's pretty much foolproof: If bitcoin craters then who wants to be alive for that. And if the world is a crapsack world you just kill yourself again.

 ...after removing that tattoo from your forehead of course.