Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1406997335960428546

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/sothebys-diamond-auction-marks-another-bitcoin-milestone

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phil_S]

50% of ATH is $32400, looks like dips below that level are very short-lived.

[Toxic2040]

the morning wall report




#dyor

1h



4h

#stronghands

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

Seeing the market now the condition of most traders is like this wondering when it will pump again.But still hoping to get some support say at $30k level.

The market keeps dipping but not the first time so don't worry.

[Wekkel]

I tend to see it differently.

Corn is stamping a bottom 50% above 2017 ATH.

The long term trajectory is still massively up.

All is good 

[Millionero]

Germany's 🇩🇪 second most read newspaper, F.A.Z, just published this full page #Bitcoin  piece.

"#Bitcoin  Packs a Punch"



https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1406629207438921733?s=21

Is there a link to a translation?

[Toxic2040]

I tend to see it differently.

Corn is stamping a bottom 50% above 2017 ATH.

The long term trajectory is still massively up.

All is good 

+1 WOsMerit

one could extrapolated that even further..

not only is it 50% above its previous ATH....its 50% under it current ATH

maths..smh

[gallianooo]

I dont think 30k will hold. We need one more deep shake out. We were here before and the interest was not much. We need a price to convince the people with money to get in. I hope so much that I am wrong. But gut and experience wise I think 23-24k is a painful level where the market could turn. I dont think we see sub 20k ever again.

Agree that 30K will maybe not hold, as we didn't see any real bounce or conviction since this (local ?) bottom.

But at the end 30k or 24k.. from my side, can be almost the same. We would be still above the previous 2017 ATH so.. if we need to see a really painful / capitulation level, we should visit 20K again or even bit less..

I cannot believe at this scenario for now, but who knows. For now 30K level makes his job, even if there is no fuel to go up.

Stay positive. We will be higher this year.

[Arriemoller]

Congratulations Toxic!!

[JSRAW]

Congrats brother.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

TINA


https://twitter.com/BitcoinStimulus/status/1406980778752462851

[JayJuanGee]

It's quite sad that Elon tweeting about bitcoin and tesla accepting bitcoin for their cars had a bigger impact on price than a country turning it into real currency, like wtf.

hahahahaha

Don't be sssssso sad, Hhampuz.

It will all work out in the long run.. even if it might not be feeling so ggggggoooooood in the shorter to medium run.

 

Imagine selling now if you didn't at $60k 

Yeah, my cousin just ordered a 75-inch TV with the money he got by selling corn a week ago.

I've warned him that this will soon be the most expensive TV set he has ever bought in his life. He didn't listen to me.

Huh?

Which cousin is this one?   This was not cousin BeerHoDL, the one that was working on buying the dip and had gotten coins at around $60k and more coins around $34k and was looking at some more coins at $30k-ish?

From my memory, BeerHoDL would have been in the negative (unless he just categorized a portion of his BTC that he had bought at $34k-ish, for example), so much of that would make little to no sense (not that no coiners make much sense) to be selling at a loss or even not much of a profit, right?

We have seen variations of this kind of behavior from newbies in the past, and surely not limited to individuals because sometimes even institutions have little to no delayed gratification abilities and they are striving to lock in fiat profits.. which seems to be quite short-sighted to several of us longer term coiners.

[Oshosondy]

I like Microstrategy, after all the whole bear market, the company still bought 13,005 BTC at an average price of $37,617 for a combined total of about $489 million.

[modrobert]

I have sent an email to the "Wallet of Satoshi" support asking if there's a way to get "permanent receive address" which can take more than one payment, and also how long these Lightning addresses last. Waiting for reply.

Got reply...

When it comes to normal Lightning Invoices, that is not possible as they are one-use only.
The Invoices we generate in Wallet of Satoshi have an expiry time of 24 hours.
(That is configurable at the node level so some other services invoices may be less or more).

There are a couple of solutions on the protocol level in the works for the use case you mentioned, but unsure about how far away they are.

For something that works right now, tippin.me is a good service where you have a unique url and it generates a new 0-amount invoice each time you refresh the page.
When you have built up some tips you could then withdraw them all in one go to your wallet.
Good thing is that it's all on the lightning network so fees are extremely low.

Apparently tippin.me works similar to lnbits.com, haven't tested (yet), both supporting LNURLp (as tested here).

[JayJuanGee]

...

This leads me to a projection. The projection is mainly based on the idea of averages. The averages can tell us where Bitcoin is on a binary scale: overvalued or undervalued. Assuming that Bitcoin's true value is still increasing, investing in Bitcoin is still a good choice on the long term. But timing your entry right can mean the difference between a big win and a massive win.

The idea of the chart is that big bottoms in a cycle occur in an area far below the purple line. The purple line (in the 3Day chart) is currently at $20,000.

We have seen that the Bitcoin markets have plenty of speculative money in them + derivative trading. What goes up big time, can also go down big time. Especially in times of fear.

The assumption underlying the chart is that the current financial markets move along until something breaks. That's how it usually goes. A bank going bust, a large company is marked junk. It could be anything that suddenly breaks the markets. Stonks slide, yields go down and everything is sold in order to obtain cold hard cash.

The FED and other CBs step in and 'save the day' by printing even more money. After the panic subsides, market participants jump back in with both hands on the waves of yet another Great Reflation.

I take this as the default scenario.

The chart is essentially about extending the moving averages based on the 2018-2019 bear market (copy/paste). Extend and duration will probably not match the future; it's just an 'what if' exploration. For instance, the March 2020 panic will probably remain an outlier.

The chart gives me confidence:

• even in a major downturn - a Bitcoin bear market and/or the GFC 202x occurring - price is not expected go lower than approx 50% from here
• with nothing fundamentally changed to the long term Bitcoin growth drivers, buying a bit at this price point is fine
• this is the worst case scenario for me. Working through this period will probably take less time

I have come to the same conclusion.  But arrived at it using mining data.

Best miner does about 30 watts a th

so a th earns 22 cents

lets say I have 100 of them

100 x .22 = 22 dollars a day

30 watts x 100 = 3000 or 3 kwatts or 72 kwatts a day


at 5 cents =  3.60


22.00- 3.60 = 18.4   that is  0.000555 btc


or 1/0.000555  = a factor of  1801.80

1 = 1 btc

to earn 1 btc a day
 
1801 x 3.60 = 6483 in power  

while it seems way under the 15000 number for the low it neglects costs of your building your internet your wiring and your miners

A s19 went for 6000 at Bitmain it has a 2-3  year life on average so it cost 8.22 a day to own it. use 8.22 x 1801 you get 14,804

so 14,804 + 6483 = 21,287  which is well over 15k

but s19 also went for 3000 at bitmain
that means 4.21 a day to own

or 7,402 + 6483 = 13885 which is under 15k

the cost of the s19 is base on 2 year not 3 year.

I get 21,287+13885 = 35172/2 = 17586 fairly close to his 15k number.

I do suspect the life span to be over 2 and under 3 years. which means that 17586 is a bit high but not off by much remarkable that it is so close to his 15k number.  Since the way to get the number is very different.


So basically for mining a btc I get true cost close to 15-18k .

I mentioned earlier that this is different than 2018 here is why.

2017 12/31 diff = 2.60th
2018 01/31 diff = 3.01th
2018 02/28 diff = 3.46th
2018 03/31 diff = 4.02th
2018 04/30 diff = 4.31th
2018 05/31 diff = 5.08th
2018 06/30 diff = 5.95th
2018 07/31 diff = 6.73th
2018 08/31 diff = 7.15th
2018 09/30 diff = 7.45th.

2018 10/30 diff = 7.18th

so with faltering prices the diff rose 9 months in a row

that is not true right now.  

and this means it is different this time

"fact not conjecture"

Just not sure what will happen. Due to this fundamental difference in mining profit.

Even though you are asserting that you are not sure which way the BTC price is going to go, you are giving a decent amount of weight to considerations that BTC price might give shits about mining costs.  I have my doubts, but sure, on the margins all kinds of factors are at play.. just hate to be giving too much weight to any one (or narrow set) of factors.

I already responded to some of my concerns about how feckle Wekkel had arrived at his above conclusions, and I suppose several of my comments would apply to responding to your assessments, too, philip.

Next Chartbuddy needs to be $36K

Define "needs to be"

Having BTFD, for my short term gratification it "needs to be" uppity up

Can't really argue with that way of putting the matter.

We can cry together.


 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Chinese miners crackdown, energy FUD, Goldman Sachs shorting, stock market tanking and dragging Bitcoin down with it.

Crazy how sentiment changed so quickly.

Is goldman shorting bitcoin?

around the U.S. open corn was dumped out of the market like sh*t. so some technical oriented guys gave up.

looks like more sideways now. rally is delayed because it seems they don't want to have the corn to expensive to still fill their pockets at least until end of August.

Proof: yesterday someone posted that but deleted it just afterwards. but Eagleeye was faster.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/bitcoin-goldman-sachs-ramps-up-trading-in-partnership-with-mike-novogratz-galaxy-digital.html

I was the one who deleted it to spare negativity.

This sucks but we can't do nothing about it besides waiting for the rebound. Saw great indicators it wil happen but it has been postponed for now.

I would go with the longer the sideways and delay, the higher the next ATH. If we turn bullish now, I am sure we be stuck at 60k again. Bitcoin has to become boring for some time. Hope is September to take momentum again. But would be even better to resume parabolic bull market next year. Have to wait another year for 1 BTC = 1 Aventador.

I have my doubts any time that I hear that king daddy has to do x, y or z..

king daddy has to go down before up

king daddy has to go sideways for a while

I doubt king daddy gives too many shits, and it could be that if there are enough peeps betting on DOWNity or even sideways  (sideways betters are not very good in terms of leverage betting), then fuel might start to exist.. but whether such fuel would be used might be another question...

More purgening of shitcoins, anyone?  Don't know?  Do shitcoins have pep in their step?  Sure some of them do.  Don't know how it connects, but sometimes the purgening of shitcoins could be an additional irritating factor that is wished to be less of a consideration..

It's quite sad that Elon tweeting about bitcoin and tesla accepting bitcoin for their cars had a bigger impact on price than a country turning it into real currency, like wtf.

To be honest, many people don't regard El Salvador et al as a real country.

Yeah right.   

Let's ask Arriemoller for a representation regarding what "many people" regard.

Probably the last person I would ask, if I wanted anything close to accurate.

 

I am not sure if we are still in a bull or bear-a coin toss.

hahahaha

Yeah what else is new.

You have been unsure if we are in a bull market or a bear market like forever.

It's like you ongoingly push bear nonsense talking points but act like you want the BTC price to go up.

It's your schtick and sooner or later you are surely going to be right.

This market cycle was characterized by two front-running (that were ahead of S2F) waves of 2019 and 2020-2021 .
Maybe they are now front-running the bear earlier than expected.

Front running of the bear market is surely a plausible possibility, but it still is a minority likelihood in the whole scheme of things, so hopefully you and udder peeps are not failing and refusing to pee pare ur lil selfies for UPpity because you are assigning too high of odds to such a scenario that you are wishing for (while saying that you are not wishing for it).

TL;DR A coin toss between a bull and a bear;

There's no fucking coin toss, you dweeb.

We are in a bull market.. until we are not... and currently we are in a bull market.. so get over your coin tossing nonsense, you tosser.

I will note that I proclaim 50/50 assertions on a very regular basis in regards to short term BTC price direction, but that is not the same as proclaiming that it is 50/50 regarding whether we are in a bear market of a bull market.. because if you are proclaiming bull/bear market to be 50/50 then you are failing/refusing to give proper weight to ongoing and currently valid BTC prediction theories of stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.

raised funds from alts, ready to deploy to bitcoin (at least 90%) when I am ready. If current bear reverses back to bull soonish, then I will ladder to the upside faster.

Does not hurt to have some fiat.  Each of us would likely benefit by always being prepared for either BTC price direction, and surely sometimes we are going to come to differing assessments regarding the circumstances to deploy our fiat and how much to deploy under varying scenarios that may or may not end up playing out.