Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

So what's the deal with all the price fuckery lately? I suspect this has something to do with it.



This is where all those shorts are coming from. These kind of arseholes only seem to pop up in bear markets, god knows how long it will take to get rid of this prick.

Look at the volume on bitfinex for the last 24 hours

[Elwar]

Let's say Satoshi was a group, it would seem there is only one spokeperson who posted on the forums, as the posts are consistent up until he or she or they disappeared. So maybe he was working with a group but the main character is the only one posting as a single entity.

But doesn't explain why they haven't moved their stash of BTC though!

There are two simple explanations for that:

1. Satoshi died.
2. He deleted access to the wallets / never had access to them / mining computer nuked / did not care for value.

It's quite possible someone has more than enough money to resist the urge trying to cash out a few billion dollars worth of bitcoin, but that's unlikely.

The best theory I have seen (which CSW sued the guy to take the post down so obviously he's above the target) is that Hal Finney was the brains behind Bitcoin using his genius brain to put together all of the pieces created by so many smart cypherpunks before him. He enlisted the help of Dave Kleinman for his expertise as well they were both suffering from the same life threatening disease. While Finney did most of the background work Dave took on the Satoshi character understanding the implications of what they were doing. He knew that he needed to be completely anonymous so he asked his friend Craig Wright for some pointers on how to hide his identity very well. He then took on the "public" persona of Satoshi and was the Satoshi that we all know. He set up the first few nodes while keeping anonymous, bringing in Finney's nodes early on as a non-anonymous node though they likely were working together on everything before that.

Finney and Kleinman eventually died. Craig Wright, knowing that Kleinman was Satoshi tried desperately to get Kleinman's computers and USB drives from his family after his death. Also, it would make sense that CSW knew who Satoshi was otherwise he would not be so willing to come out and claim that he is Satoshi. The real Satoshi could always prove him wrong otherwise. CSW also likely knew some specifics about how Kleinman stayed anonymous so he was able to put some pieces together to make it look like it was him all along.

CSW can try to sue me for posting this but good luck finding me.

[Copetech]

loyce lump sum is an all or nothing attitude .

why not do a nice 3 way concept.

DCA
Downward ladder
Basement lumpsum

you are good with numbers do all 3 a figure a proper ratio.

say x a week dca

x at 30030
x at 29029
x at 28028
x at 27027
x at 26026
x at 25025
x at 24024

5x at 20020
10x at 19019

some variation of above means you will buy at least x a week on dca and you may never buy the ladder or the lump

but you are doing a 3 way and have all 3 covered.


set up a sell ladder at

x 65k
x 66k
x 67k
x 68k

5x 75k
10x 100k

only use the dca coins for the sell method

twist and tweak a bit and you are done.

I agree with your various points on the buy side, phillip... and so yes, there are a lot of ways to structure and to think about buying BTC that allows the set up to be individually tailorized so that way fewer emotions would come from BTC price movements because the buyer has thought about his/her personal situation and has set up his/her BTC buy strategy in such a way that there is no need to attempt to guess about the stupid-ass (all over the god-damned place) BTC price or to be emotional about what the BTC price ends up doing.



 That kind of approach of selling too much BTC too soon could result in a kind of nonsense way under-allocation in BTC because the buyer/accumulator is trying to accumulate more BTC but going through that attempt to accumulate more BTC process by selling BTC..  

BuhJesus! Edited To Save BBS Real Estate Some Peeps either Has too much time or too many typing skillz!

So I get what you're saying, and for many peeps this is SoLiD F'n advice! But here's the thing... a lot of peeps AIN'T most peeps...
So I got the first house paid off in full. I got the bug out bag with a month's worth of food, Gold, & Silver. I got the adequate supply of tactically engineered Iron & Lead. And between my and my wife's jobs, we currently make approximately double our current expenses based on our current quality of life requirements,  and we both have approximately 25-30 more years of average income years in out estimated life cycles. We also have the 80 acres of rugged mountain land with a solid 1gallon/minute natural spring, fish able stream, and more than adequate woodland, arable crop field, and pasture land to support 10+ people, with a mapped out path from said house in the city to said mountain land w/o ever exiting heavy woodland coverage.
We have plans to buy another house somewhere between current house and mountain land that will be more of the kind of place where we'd want to live long term. The current house is being modernized and developed to be a rental property "smart-house" in the city targeted at the single executive or childless professional couple.
Debt is at absolute 0 (or rather cards are paid off monthly to keep credit active without ever accruing interest) and wife has a little over $10k left in a completely unmanaged 401k while simultaneously contributing weekly to an active and well managed 401k.
End result, if I never made a dime off of BTC and the US$ inflated into cheap kindling... I think we'd be fine.
BUT if I can outperform my wife's 401k's in 6 month's time, she has agreed to give me the dormant unmanaged $10k to grow as I see fit.
If BTC stays low for a couple more months, then goes parabolic, easy-peasy I win... a missed boat. The 401k will likely crash & burn before I can get any real buy in opportunity and my best bet at that point is to leave it untouched until it recovers enough to be of any use.
However if I use my system to maximize gains and possibly even reach a point where I've been able to draw out as much as I've put in and still have significant value to continue playing upward, I will then have an additional $10k and my wife's full support and admiration to play it smart and solid from that point on.
You mentioned in a previous post that I should talk more about how my system plays out, but I did talk about it a bit a couple weeks ago and you very much didn't want to hear it. Basically I've chose 3 of the top 10 Alts (shitcoins) and I play the exchange rates against each other to maximize tradable volatility while still focusing on a weekly dollar cost average contribution to my system. All of my buys & sells are at the same dollar amount and that dollar amount is equal to the dollar amount of my weekly contribution. So we'll call that dollar amount a "Lot". I started 3 weeks ago, so I have deposited 3 weekly Lot's into the portfolio's and I also added a lump sum equal to 10 Lot's to get me moving.
I currently have 4 Lot's of BTC at a CA 10% below current market value (and we're down right now), 4 Lot's of my Tier 1 Alt coin at CA about 5% over current market, 3 Lots of Tier 2 Alt at +10% and 1 Lot of Tier 3 at +2.5%. Plus I have 6 Lot's of US$ scheduled for BTC buys if the dippening continues through the weekend.

So currently I have 18 Lot's even though I have only invested 13 US$ Lot's. 6 of those Lot's are currently in US$ so I have a 7 to 12 risk to reward ratio. If my system blew up in my face right now I could still walk away with 6 Lot's in cash, 4 Lot's in BTC and hope like hell I can somehow recover my 3 Lot's out of the 8 Lot's of Alts. I'm feeling pretty good even though BTC is currently looking like it's on a Downward ladder for the weekend. Now my goal is to reach a 1 to 10 risk to reward ratio and feel confident in the fact that I can go for weeks on end without even thinking about where things stand and still easily pull out every dollar I've put in at a moments notice and have plenty of free BTC to continue growing. At that point I am certain my wife will be ready to hand over that neglected 401k whether we've reached 6 months or not, and I'll probably dive back in to make it grow in BTC but could just as easily decide to put it into another house, or Gold & Silver, or other investment opportunities depending upon how things develop between now and then.
At this point in time I feel pretty strongly that I'll be all in on my BTC system, but a lot can change in 6 months... especially when you're thinking forward 25-30+ years.

(BTW, while I've been typing my top scheduled buy has been filled for 1 Lot at the cheapest price per Sat I have paid yet, so everything above has changed and it's time for me to go do some more "Math's & Science")


*Edited cuz Prooraeding has vulae two...

[Elwar]

So what's the deal with all the price fuckery lately? I suspect this has something to do with it.



This is where all those shorts are coming from. These kind of arseholes only seem to pop up in bear markets, god knows how long it will take to get rid of this prick.

Look at the volume on bitfinex for the last 24 hours

What if...the president of El Salvador wants to push the price of bitcoin down to $30k just in time to start sending out the $30 worth of BTC to people.

That way, when the price then goes up to $40-50k people will see that their $30 is now $40-50 and then discover the potential of hodling bitcoin.

He'd have to keep it down for a while though as I assume the $30 giveaway will take place over months.

[xhomerx10]

Yeah I would rather work at McDonalds at a time when the corn economy is bad than to dump my bags. I get it. I really do. Would you like fries with that?

just the egg mcmuffin hold the muffin and a black coffee.

I am on low carb. diet.

Sir, we stopped serving breakfast at 11:30.

 I don't want to be your buddy, Rick.  I just want some breakfast.

[JayJuanGee]

If you read a lot of FIRE related websites and blogs, you'll have an idea of a typical allocation like 60/40 equities/fixed income.

Incorporating bitcoin would likely cause some think differently in terms of both initial allocations and also the extent to which to attempt to actively manage the allocations.

Furthermore a guy with ONLY $10k in total investments might consider how to divide his various investments differently than a guy who has gotten up to $120k or $240k.

Also, the various personal factors surely need to be accounted, and maybe a young guy of 25 years old or younger who ONLY has a total of $12k to invest over the next 6-12 months (and maybe already has taken a position in various assets) might start out with 70% bitcoin, 10% cash 15% equities (index stocks) 5% bonds (or other fixed assets). 

It's not easy to put yourself into the position of someone else, and my recommendation of a starting investment in BTC of 1% to 10% is a starting range, and sort of presumes that the person is already investing in other things and they are considering learning about bitcoin so that if they dabble in bitcoin for a while and learn about it, they might well decide to allocate outside of that range, and a person who is in his 40s or 50s might not want to be overly aggressive, whether s/he has built up a decent nest egg or not.. but surely sometimes the guy/gal who is 40 or 50 years old who is feeling that s/he does not have even close to enough (maybe the goal was $1 million, but realized in the past year and a half or so that the goal is going to have to be $2 million, instead... ssssshhheeeeiiiiitttt!!!!!) because s/he is ONLY in the range of $120k to $240k of total investment values.

Sometimes people also get impatient because they realize that the amount that they have built up in various assets and investments is way lower than what they had hoped at their time in life (and the maths are not working out) - and there is a need to be careful with getting impatient, too... because king daddy can become very punishing to those who are overly aggressive, especially if they overextend themselves with some kinds of leverage and without a sufficient cashflow to cover such debt servicing.. or alternatively try to play around with collateral and to NOT really understand the various ways that kind of a game/gamble might play out contrary to the interest of the collateral employer.

hey I just reaized i am 64 my wife is 65 and the btc alltime high floated around those numbers 64k-65k

interesting. i was gonna ask you to age faster but that would be rude.

Maybe we find a couple with such a bodyweight and they can do that instead of their age. 

well tbh i would be happy enough if phil and his wifes combined age (129 years so $129k USD) were the ATH this time around, so we can still go by age.

add MY age in and even better.

Opsec... careful buds.....   

oh what the heck?  throw in your social security number and address, too.. those are probably helpful too, no?

add MY age in and even better.

I see companies do that all of the time. We have 10 board members who's collective age and experience is 500 years (or something absurd)... Like you can simply have a team of 20 to 30 devs who have 2000 years of experience?

If we have 50 active WO's ... and maybe 150-ish others posting or lurking here, we have 200. If the average age is 30 or 40, the number is 6000 to 8000. Which could translate to either $6m per coin, or $6 trillion marketcap, or something like that.

One of the benefits of crowd sourcing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

What if...the president of El Salvador wants to push the price of bitcoin down to $30k just in time to start sending out the $30 worth of BTC to people.

That way, when the price then goes up to $40-50k people will see that their $30 is now $40-50 and then discover the potential of hodling bitcoin.

He'd have to keep it down for a while though as I assume the $30 giveaway will take place over months.

I don't think El Salavador has enough cash. Hell, I don't think they have enough for the $30.

[goldkingcoiner]

Yeah I would rather work at McDonalds at a time when the corn economy is bad than to dump my bags. I get it. I really do. Would you like fries with that?

just the egg mcmuffin hold the muffin and a black coffee.

I am on low carb. diet.

Sir, we stopped serving breakfast at 11:30.

 I don't want to be your buddy, Rick.  I just want some breakfast.

Yes sir... Sheila?

[Overflask]

Yeah I would rather work at McDonalds at a time when the corn economy is bad than to dump my bags. I get it. I really do. Would you like fries with that?

just the egg mcmuffin hold the muffin and a black coffee.

I am on low carb. diet.

https://www.aveleyman.com/Gallery/2017/H/8018-6009.jpg
Sir, we stopped serving breakfast at 11:30.

 I don't want to be your buddy, Rick.  I just want some breakfast.

https://i.imgur.com/C4Any0B.gif

Yes sir... Sheila?

http://vid.speechyard.com/downloader/videos/57dae7147f8b9a7b1f8b4624/medium/11.jpg

I know that you are not serving breakfast past 11h30, Rick. Sheila just told me that you were not serving breakfast past 11h30.

I love that movie!

[Copetech]

So my Stop/Limit buy at the lowest price I've been able to catch thus far, brought my total BTC Cost Average up $15...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

A pretty amazing story (and a solution!) from reddit:

https://alexbowe.com/bitcoin-passphrase-recovery/

[Hueristic]

A pretty amazing story (and a solution!) from reddit:

https://alexbowe.com/bitcoin-passphrase-recovery/

Good read, thx

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

chart blocker take that buddy.

I blocked your double.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Yeah. I hold a lot out of the exchanges that is not going to get sold.

Even though I responded to your post philip, I was responding more in regards to whether selling might be good for someone who is in a position like Loyce or even other similarly situated peeps who are probably quite distant from their accumulation goals.

For someone who is either in their 60s, I would not expect as much emphasis on accumulating, so for sure anyone in their 60s would have a bit of the time factor that might affect how aggressively they might be engaging in BTC accumulation - and likely even greater needs to keep higher levels of value either more liquid or invested in less volatile assets, as compared with bitcoin.

Since I rarely buy and sell coins I mine them to accumulate far more than I trade coins.

So in the examples above on the sell ladder it involves my buys and sells.

Not my mining accumulations.

I do think that what you are doing is for someone who already perceives that s/he has reached high enough accumulation levels.. I believe it is not a good strategy for someone who is either early in BTC accumulation or who might not have very high BTC profit levels.

I know loyce makes  btc we his signature (kind of like me making btc via mining)

So he should just stack it. and forget it.  thus he always will accumulate some sats off the exchanges.


so the 3way buy and Ladder sell  precludes all his signature stacking.  Which he should stack and forget.

If my Mining has stacked 1 BTC or 2 BTC.  Plus some spare coinage to do as I please each month

The stacking is completly separated from the 3 way buy 1 ladder sell folder.


I group this all like this

wife's "safe" 401k
my BTC stack from mining
my gold
my silver
my cash


my multiple other coins and left over btc monthly profits. this breaks down to

a few buy ladders
a few sell ladders
a few shit coins mined at a profit to shift around.

the section below the double line is less by a lot than the section above the line.

My biggest concern is not price of BTC but BTC stacked from mining.

If I stack 0.05 btc from mining every month for 3 years to top level It is 36 x .5 = 1.8 btc

that has nothing to do with the buy and sell ladders.

Stacking 1.8 btc in the next 3 years to my current stack is possible.

Although if the diff keeps dropping I may do it faster.

I cannot see anything wrong with attempting to either look at how you might be allocating in your own situation or your project out these kinds of accountings in order to attempt to figure out how many BTC that you might have at various times down the road and also accounting for some of those other investments that you have.  I wonder if we were to get a peak BTC price that goes into $200k to $400k and then corrects back down to something around $100k if you would thereafter be considering that 1.8 BTC had been a pretty decent income for that time period... but then again in 3 years we could have a bottom that is much lower and we could also start migrating back up in price again too.. in terms of considering the potential applicability of our cherished 4-year fractal.

Let's see what the weekend would bring.

I am amazed by all these unnecessary calculations with an uncertain premise.
The best decision was obviously buying in a lump sum for at least the latter half of 2014, 2015, 2016, first half of 2017, the latter half of 2018 and the first half of 2020, which constitutes more than 50% of bitcoin life. Why make it complicated when it was (and will be at some point when this bear is over) so simple?
I have pursued this stategy myself and I am happy with the results so far.

Buy in a lump sum when it is cheap^TM. How to measure "cheap" is another question.

And your ongoing inadequate attempts to time the BTC market is part of the reason that you get so emotional (salty) on such a regular basis because you are ongoingly stressing about how much of a dip is enough and also you are likely NOT adequately pee-paring ur lil selfie for UPpity  when it does end up happening, so you during exponential Uppity periods, you end up whining the whole way like a 3 year old while talking down the price the whole way ... at least that has largely been your history, so far in these here parts.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

So my Stop/Limit buy at the lowest price I've been able to catch thus far, brought my total BTC Cost Average up $15...

Hi Copetech, welcome to Bitcoin and the WO. Let me give you one solid advice we all had to learn the hard way: Only thing that matters is the number of bitcoins (or sats) you own, not the cost average. Your petrodollar cost price quickly becomes completely irrelevant (max 3.2 year waiting period so far).